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Northcoast STAR RATED PLAYS:
3.5* OVER 48.5 NY Giants/Philadelphia 1:00 pm, 3* UNDER 43.5 Arizona/LA Chargers 4:05 pm
Top Opinions:Sunday Night Marquee: Minnesota (-3/-3.5) Green Bay 8:20 pm NBCBuffalo (+3) Jacksonville 1:00 pm AFC POD Comp on Button 3Carolina (-3) Seattle 1:00 pm NFL Chalk
My 100 dime selection is on the Denver over the Steelers. The current line on this game as of 6:45 am EST is +3 in Vegas and offshore. If your line is anywhere from +2 1/2 to +4 I advise buying the 1/2 point up. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.
5-Star Patriots at Jets UNDER 46.5 - Both these teams are off bad losses as a significant favorite in which they struggled to move the chains on offense. In week ten, The Patriots lost 34-10 to the Titans and the Jets lost 41-10 to the Bills. We have a system working here that is 0-20 OU since the start of the 2013 season. The SDQL text is:
p:F and p:margin<-10 and p:FD/p:OFPL <= 0.25 and po:RY>125 and season >= 2013
The English translation is NFL teams are 0-20 OU when they are off a loss by more than ten points as a favorite in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays and allowed at least 125 rushing yards. Two teams qualify for this system this week and they happen to be playing each other - the Jets and the Patriots.
The Jets themselves are 0-9 OU (-8.44 ppg) off a 21+ point loss at home and 0-8 OU (-13.44 ppg) as a dog when they are off two consecutive TD-plus losses. The SDQL for the second of this pair is:
team=Jets and D and p:margin<=-7 and pp:margin<=-7 and date>=20141109
In their last three games in this spot, the Jets have scored 7, 6, and 6 points, respectively.
The Patriots are playing their second straight road game and good teams tend to play low scoring games in this spot. Teams that won more than ten games the previous regular season are 0-18 OU when playing their second straight road game. The SDQL is a straightforward:
A and 10=20171112
The Patriots themselves are 0-16 OU as a road favorite after a game in which they allowed five-plus third down conversions and a third down conversion percentage of more than 35%. The SDQL text is:
team=Patriots and AF and po:3DM>=5 and po:3DP > 35 and date>=20141200
New England is 0-3 OU in this spot THIS season.
In addition, the Patriots are 0-8 OU (-8.94 ppg) as a road favorite off a loss in which they converted four or fewer third downs, 0-7 OU (-8.79 ppg) as a TD-plus favorite when their opponent had last week off, and 0-6 OU when they are off a road game and they are facing a team that is off at least two losses, staying under by an average of 15.17 ppg. The SDQL for the third of this trio is:
team=Patriots and p:A and o:streak<=-2 and date>=20160103
The Patriots do not have to score 30-plus points to win here. They just have to not allow big plays and not commit turnovers. Make the play the UNDER.
#252 - NFL - 20 units on Buffalo +3
#258 - NFL - 10 units on Philadelphia -4.5
#260 - NFL - 10 units on Cincinnati -1
#261 - NFL - 10 units on New England & NY Jets Over 46
#272 - NFL - 10 units on Green Bay & Minnesota Under 47.5
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