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ESPN+ SNF Best Bets Where does the betting value lie in Sunday's prime-time matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
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Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Pittsburgh
Johnson: With Melvin Gordon officially ruled out for Los Angeles, I have been surprised to see this number move from Pittsburgh -3.5 to -3. My raw number in this matchup is Steelers -4.4, and Gordon is definitely worth something to the point spread (0.9 points for me, conservatively). I mentioned in my column last week that the Steelers actually lead the NFL with a +1.2 yards per play differential. They are the only team that ranks top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
I anticipate Ben Reothlisberger will take care of the football and limit turnovers, unlike last week in Denver when the Steelers turned the ball over four times despite outgaining the Broncos by 200 yards. I'm going to be backing the Steelers at the short number against a banged-up Chargers team on the road.
Pick: Steelers -3
Sharp: We took the Broncos +3 last week and Denver won outright, but the Steelers should have won that game. They put up over 500 yards of offense and 462 passing yards, but were -4 in turnover margin. Roethlisberger dropped back to pass 58 times on the road against a good pass rush, and was sacked just twice. The Steelers are in a great spot back at home, in primetime, where they thrive.
Pittsburgh should be able to get back to the run game and dominate the Chargers run defense, and while the Chargers have Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, they are no more fearsome than the pass rush the Steelers just dominated last week.
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