Service Plays Wednesday 12/5/18

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Greg shaker

2* Villanova / temple over 141

2* Butler / brown over 141.5

2* Wright st / Miami - Ohio over 142

3* Texas / Va. Commonwealth over 135.5

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Indian Cowboy

7* Take Over 156 South Carolina / Wyoming (Wednesday @ 9pm est)

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From Northcoast group of handicappers:

Accu Picks

NBA
3* #510 Minnesota -5

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Robert Ferringo

8-Unit Play. Take #600 Washington State (-9) over Idaho (9 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
Note: This line is going to move throughout the day. Play it up to 10.5.
OK, so before I walk you down a little statistical wormhole that contributes heavily to this play, let's do a quick recap of how awful this Washington State program has been over the last decade since Tony Bennett (you know, the guy leading the Virginia juggernaut) left. Since the 2009-10 season, Ken Bone's first year after Bennett left, until now, here is Washington State's year-by-year record: 16-15, 22-13, 19-18, 13-19, 10-21, 13-18, 9-22, 13-18 and 12-19. I write that record out to illustrate that this is an awful, awful program; one of the worst in the Power 5 conferences. But I also do it to prove a point: if there is a trend that is overwhelmingly positive from a team that has performed so overwhelmingly negative then it is worth looking at.
The trend is thus: Washington State, at home, has dominated the dregs of college basketball over the last decade. They can't win many Pac-12 games. But when the play teams rated 205 or worse - the lower third of college basketball - they take care of their business in Pullman. Because even though they can't win in the Pac-12 they have Pac-12 talent. And that's a lot better than what the teams at the bottom of the college hoops barrel are packing.
Including this season, Washington State has played 45 home (or close to home) games against teams rated 205 or lower. They are 43-2 SU in those games. Of the 43 wins, 41 of them have come by 7 or more points. So 91.1 percent of the time Washington State wins games exactly like this one by 7 or more points (which puts us right around this number and gives us a chance to win late). They have won 34 of 45 (75.5 percent) of those game by 11 or more points. I feel that listing the percentage of games won by those margins is more useful than mentioning their 18.6 points per game average win in those 45 games. Because, statistically speaking, some outliers can skew that number more than the raw numbers.
Current head coach Ernie Kent has been the head man for 21 of those 45 games. His team is 20-1 SU in those games. Of the wins, 18 of 20 (90%) were by 7 or more points and 16 of 20 (80%) were by 11 or more. So his five-year stint has been in keeping with the 10-year averages for this team.
Further, here is Washington State's margins of victory, at home, against Idaho, so far this decade: 13, (-6), 9, 17, 12. That's one upset loss and four no-doubt wins. And dating back to the turn of the century they have beaten Idaho in Pullman by an average of 16.4 points per game. This is a rivalry game - The Battle of the Palouse - and it is one of the oldest in the country.
Soooooo, there are a lot of historical trends and norms pointing toward a double-digit win here. But that's the macro. Let's get into the micro.
Washington State isn't any good this year. They are the worst team in the Pac-12 by a pretty good stretch. However, this really might be the best team they have had under Ernie Kent. Kent has not been able to turn things around for this program. Not really his bad. Kent is still a guy that has had a lot of success in college basketball and a guy that's a pretty damn good coach. He also happens to be coaching for his job. This is a make-or-break year and he can't afford to lose notable rivalry games like this. So he won't. Washington State is coming off a tough loss at a good New Mexico State team over the weekend. (A game they easily covered the +9.5 for a 7-Unit win for us Saturday.) So coming off a loss I expect the Cougars to be focused.
There are also some ancillary reasons why Washington State should be ready for this game. The first is this: Idaho absolutely beat the shit out of them last year. Idaho was really good last year. They finished second in the Big Sky and No. 126 overall in college hoops (compared to Wazzou's No. 186). The Vandals were hosting a Pac-12 team in early December - their biggest nonconference game of the season by a mile - and they went nuts, winning 91-64 in a game that was never close.
But here is the thing: Idaho played eight guys 13 or more minutes in that blowout. Seven of those guys are gone. Of the 91 points that they scored in that game only 5 of them - five garbage time points from Geno West - are back. Idaho lost all five starters and 95 percent of its team scoring from last year. Washington State brought back three starters from last year's team. They brought back half of their points, including stud scorer Robert Franks (who is averaging 24.8 points per game this year). I feel like they will remember that blowout. And not fondly.
That same night (Saturday) that we won a 7-Unit Play with Washington State we also lost a 6-Unit Play going against Idaho. That win - a 67-54 win at North Dakota - was Idaho's first win over a D-I opponent all year. And the reason is that they are a bad team. The Vandals and coach Don Verlin have a system. They get a bunch of freshmen and sophomores, give them a ton of minutes for 3-4 years, and hope that the group can coalesce into something by the time they are juniors and seniors. Then all those guys graduate and they start the process anew. Well, this year they are in Year 1 of the rebuild. Their three best players are freshmen. They start two freshmen and a sophomore. And they suck. They actually lost to an NAIA school in their exhibition game and then lost to a D-II school two weeks ago. They were losing to North Dakota and only won that game by shooting out of their minds (49 percent) from the field while North Dakota (37 percent) couldn't buy a bucket. In fact, it was a 58-54 game with six minutes left and North Dakota missed its final eight shots. And believe me, it had nothing to do with Idaho's defense.
Further, these two teams have one common opponent: Nicholls State. Both teams played them at home. Idaho lost by 3. Washington State won by 17.
Washington State is the better team from the better conference. They are playing at home. They have a major revenge motivation. They have more talent and experience back. They are facing an extraordinarily young team (No. 338) playing its first game in a major conference stadium. Idaho is in a letdown spot after shooting way over their statistical norms. New Mexico State is in a rebound spot after a tough loss. Wazzou's head coach is motivated and his players should be motivated in one of their biggest rivalry games. And every statistical indicator - from the 10-year norms against lower-tier competition to the 20-year norms in this series - suggest that Washington State will win by 10 or more.
The cherry on top is that this game isn't on anyone's radar. The books just threw up a line. The public is paying no attention to Washington State and Idaho. But this game is out there to bet and we are going to hammer this soft-ass line.
Look, this play may win. It may not win. But this is as good of a spot as you are going to find in any sport all year long. I'm willing to put a little extra on it rather than making it a 7-Unit Play. This is one of my biggest bets of the college basketball season and I feel pretty damn good about it. Hopefully Kent and the Cougars can decide not to be losers for just one night and hopefully they run Idaho out of the gym they way they should.

2-Unit Play. Take #525 Marshall (-1.5) over Duquesne (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
This is a really young Dukes team and they are coming off a big game against rival Pittsburgh. They were blown out in that game and I think that loss could linger a bit. The Dukes were forced to play without one of their best big men, Marcus Weathers, and he is questionable to suit up here tonight. Duquesne is a really young team, with 10 of their top 11 players either freshmen or sophomores. They have not been that good on either end of the court and I don't think that they have enough offense to keep up with high-scoring Marshall. The Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after a loss and I think that they will bounce back from an embarrassing defeat at Ohio over the weekend. They are the better team. I also think that they are the more motivated squad in this one.

1-Unit Play. Take #535 William & Mary (+9) over Old Dominion (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
I've been hammering against William & Mary to start the season, for good reason and with good results. But I am going to go against the grain and buy back on the Tribe a little bit here. This is an in-state rivalry game so I expect that William & Mary will come to play. They have also lost six of their last seven games so this team is a bit desperate. However, if I look at those seven games they didn't play a bad opponent and their results are closer than their overall mark suggests. They have played some really solid mid-major opposition (Radford, St. Joe's, Marshall, George Mason) along with a game against Notre Dame. Most of those games were on the road as well. I think ODU could come into this game a little fat and happy after a great week. They beat rival VCU by 10 then thrashed another in-state school, James Madison on Saturday. Where is their motivation? William & Mary has won six of seven in this series outright and they are 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Only one of their last six games this season have been decided by more than 10 points so I think the Tribe can hit enough shots to hang around in this one.

1-Unit Play. Take #537 St. Joseph's (-3) over Princeton (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
This is a little too much love for the Ivy League here. Princeton is a mediocre Ivy League team this year after going just 13-16 last season. They already have a double-digit home loss to Fairleigh Dickinson and this team is really, really struggling to put the ball in the hoop, shooting just 41.2 percent from the field and 29.6 percent from 3-point range on the season. St. Joe's is in a tricky letdown/look ahead situation after losing to Temple last Saturday and taking a shot at Villanova this Saturday. But they lost to Temple and have dropped four of five overall. They are a much better team than that so I think that they will have their focus squarely on the Hawks tonight. This team has played a really tough schedule to this point and I think that they will have three of the four best players on the floor in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #540 Toledo (-16) over Detroit (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
I hit against Detroit last night as Dayton absolutely throttled them, 98-59. That game was a god damn bloodbath. And now, for some odd reason, the Titans have to play on back-to-back nights. And for some other reason, Detroit played its two best players - Antoine Davis and Derrien King - 35+ minutes last night instead of resting them for today. Toledo is rested and ready and this is a team with a sneaky-good home court advantage. Toledo has four starters and five of their top six players back from last year's team. They also added talented Tennessee transfer Chris Darrington, who is averaging 10 points in just 15 minutes of action. These two have had some dog fights the last few years. But Toledo, which has been resting since an easy win Saturday, will be the sharper team playing against a tired, overmatched Detroit squad.

1-Unit Play. Take #543 Bowling Green (-3) over Cleveland State (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
Once again we have the better team from the better conference. I think that Bowling Green is better than it has played to this point. They have some really bad losses (Detroit, Hartford). But they also nearly stole games from St. John's and VCU. Dennis Felton still has a long way to go with his Cleveland State rebuild. The Vikings aren't there yet.

1-Unit Play. Take #547 Illinois State (+2) over Illinois-Chicago (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
In case you couldn't tell by now, I think that Illinois-Chicago sucks. We hit against them with St. Joseph's last week, with ease, and then won one of our biggest bets of the week with Loyola-Chicago beating the Flames on Saturday in a game that was really never in doubt. The Flames aren't good. And they haven't won in this series since 2004. UI-C hasn't properly replaced last year's two top players and there is just nothing for this team to hang its hat on, especially on the defensive end. Illinois State is the better team from the better conference. They have the best player on the court (Malik Yarborough). Illinois State brought back 65 of the 71 points scored in last year's win. But they also added two dynamic JUCO scorers that are averaging a combined 23 points per game. UI-C brought back just over half of their 70 points. Yes, they have Tarkus Fergusen for this meeting. But I don't think he will be enough.

1-Unit Play. Take #572 Arkansas (-7) over Colorado State (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
Stop me if you've heard this one: better team, better conference. Arkansas is playing its first true road game of the season. And the Razorbacks are night-and-day different on the road. However, Colorado State is a mess. They were a trash fire last year as Larry Eustachy peaced out. He left the program in shambles and Niko Medved is trying to pick up the pieces in Year 1 of the rebuild. It's not going to go well. Colorado State is in a bit of a letdown spot here after taking on rival Colorado over the weekend. They've already been blown out by teams like Louisiana-Lafayette, South Dakota State and Southern Illinois. Why not Arkansas? I don't love this Arkansas team and I very much look forward to betting against them in SEC play. But for right now they are playing pretty well and they should have a day against a struggling Rams squad.

1-Unit Play. Take #574 Cal-Fullerton (-2) over Loyola Marymount (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
LMU is off to a solid 8-1 start with some nice wins. But I think that they are going to struggle in this spot. The Lions are coming off a really, really disappointing effort in a 24-point blowout loss at UCLA. You know that the Lions had to be looking forward to that one and they biffed it. Now they have to go on the road to take on a Fullerton team that's a little better than their numbers suggest. This team has played a ton of road games, nearly knocking off Arizona State and Wake Forest. They have had some time to rest and regroup after a tough opening two-plus weeks. I love their backcourt, with Khalil Ahmad and Kyle Allman each averaging over 20 points per game. I think these guys will make enough shots to beat this number and claim a six-point win.

1-Unit Play. Take #587 Akron (-3) over Fort Wayne (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
Akron is the better team from the better conference. They have dominated the bad teams that they have faced to this point and they played tough in their two losses, both coming to solid teams (Clemson, Illinois State). Akron has solid experience on this team and they really shouldn't have any trouble with a bad Fort Wayne squad. Two of Fort Wayne's wins have come against D-II teams. Two more have come by a combined seven points against South Carolina State and Cleveland State. They have home losses to Samford and UMKC and they really just don't play any defense at all. That - along with their horrid free throw shooting - will bite them in this game.

1-Unit Play. Take #1075 South Alabama (+2) over New Orleans (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 5)
South Alabama is not that good. However, they have been undervalued all season long. And they are even better now that South Carolina transfer Kory Holden is eligible. Holden joins a USA team that returned its top five scorers from last year and I expect to see a lot of improvement from this veteran squad. New Orleans is only a D-I team by the strictest sense of the word; they are one of the worst teams in one of the worst programs in the country. New Orleans hasn't beaten a D-I opponent yet this season. And they are in a letdown spot here off a heartbreaking loss to rival Louisiana-Lafayette. The Jaguars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 nonconference games and they are 28-13 ATS after failing to cover the spread. I think the wrong team is favored here.

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #554 Northern Illinois (-3.5) over UC-Davis (8 p.m.) AND Take #600 Washington State (-4) over Idaho (9 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #570 California (+12) over San Francisco (11 p.m.) AND Take #547 Illinois State (+7) over Illinois-Chicago (7 p.m.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

National Sports Service Picks

Picks For 12/05/18

4* Bowling Green -2 over Cleveland St. (NCAAB)

3* Oklahoma City -7 over Brooklyn (NBA)

3* Arkansas -6.5 over Colorado St. (NCAAB)

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

Premier Picks® For 12/05/18

4* Temple/Villanova OVER 138.5 (NCAAB)
Range: 136.5 to 140.5

3* Florida Atlantic -1 over Mercer (NCAAB)
Range: +1.5 to -3

3* Oklahoma St. -1 over Tulsa (NCAAB)
Range: +1.5 to -3.5

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Analytical NBA Totals Bets

12/5/18 4 Plays:

1 unit Den/Orl under 208.5
1 unit Phi/Tor over 230
1.5 units Det/Mil over 227.5
1 unit LAC/Mem over 212.5

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Raphael Esparza (VSI)

**NHL WEDNESDAY 7U PLAY**

Ducks -140

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Vernon Croy CBB



5-Unit Play. Take #537-538 St Josephs/Princeton GAME TOTAL OVER 142 (Wednesday, December 5th at 7:00 PM ET)

Take the Hawks/Tigers GAME TOTAL OVER as my 5-Unit CBB Smash for Wednesday night. This pick falls into one of my top CBB systems and I have this game flying over the posted total tonight. The O/U is 5-1 for the Hawks in their last 6 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game and the O/U is 4-1 for the Hawks in their last 5 road games. The O/U is 16-6 for the Hawks in their last 22 games against an IVY League opponent and 20-8 for the Hawks in their last 28 games after a loss. The Hawks have averaged 79.6 ppg this season while shooting 38.9% from beyond the arc and they have also struggled defensively this season so you can expect this Tigers team to put up a big number tonight. The Hawks have allowed 82.5 ppg on the road this season with opponents shooting 50.7% against them and the Hawks are a very bad rebounding team so you can expect Princeton to get a lot of offensive rebounds here tonight. Play the OVER as we move to 11-7 the last 19 days in CBB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Take 535 William & Mary +9 over Old Dominion (Wed., Dec. 5)

I'm taking the points with William & Mary on Wednesday. Old Dom is on a 4-game winning streak but in order to cover big numbers they really need help from the opposition because the Monarchs can't shoot straight and their style of play makes it tough to pull away by margin. ODU ranks 329th in the nation making just 38.8% of their FGA. They're all about clamping down on the defensive end. They're a 2-man team when it comes to scoring and only 1 player is a reliable disher. We note that double digit favorites have covered just 8 of their last 33 if they score an average of no more than 64 ppg and have held at least 2 straight opponents to 65 points or fewer. ODU's play on the offensive end should be just what the doctor ordered for a Bill & Mary team that struggles against uptempo attacks. The Tribe has virtually 6 players averaging 10 ppg or more and 3 players can create shots for others. They're an under the radar, 39-14-2 ATS off a SU loss and have covered 7 straight in this series, while winning 6 of those games outright. We're taking the points with William & Mary on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

7-Unit Play: Take 571 Arkansas -6.5 over Colorado St. (10 p.m., Wed., Dec. 5)

I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Wednesday. The CSU Rams want to run but they're an absolute mess on the defensive end. Opponents are making 46% of their FGA and 38% of their 3-pointers against Colorado State. Arkansas will enjoy being able to set the pace with an inferior opponent that will oblige with the uptempo style. The biggest difference: Arkansas is a beast on the defensive end where they're 9th and 22nd in FG percentage and 3-point percentage allowed, respectively. The Hogs not only have 4 players averaging from 11 to nearly 20 ppg, but they have the ultimate on-floor QB in Jalen Harris who has 39 assists and just 7 turnovers on the season. And while CSU has covered just 16 of their last 51 non-conference games, Arkansas has covered 20 of their last 28. The Razorbacks won last year's meeting 92-66 exactly one year ago to the day. I expect another spread covering, wide-margin win tonight. I'm laying the points with Arkansas on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

3-Unit Play: Take 573 Loyola-Marymount +2.5 over CSUF (10 p.m., Wed., Dec., 5)

I'm taking the points with LMU on Wednesday night. The Lions lost in a big way to UCLA last time out, their first loss of the season following an 8-0 start. LMU was ice cold from start to finish. CSUF has 3 wins on the season against Cal-Lutheran, a 0-9 Monmouth team, and West Coast Baptist. Take those 3 games out of the mix and CSUF's scoring average drops 10 points, down to 71.6 ppg. LMU is far from the 10th best team in college basketball as the new formula, NCAA rankings said they were last week, but they're the better team with the more versatile weapons in this matchup. We'll grab the points with Loyola-Marymount on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WWP

Ind St P
VCU +10
Temple +8 (super pick)

Take:

N. Texas P
Texas -10
Villanova-8 Super Pick

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Always Right Sports Winners (Yesterday 3-3, Season 60-54 Sports Watch Monitor)

10* Illinois Under 145 -110

10* George Washington Under 126 -109

10* Indiana State Under 135 -105

10* California +6.5 -105

10* San Francisco Over 158 -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

7:00 pm est ncaab
ohio state vs. Illinois

pick: Illinois +5.5 (-115)

risk: 11 units

7:00 pm est ncaab
illinois state vs. Illinois chicago

pick: Illinois chicago -2.5 (-110)

risk: 11 units

7:00 pm est ncaab
st josephs vs. Princeton

pick: St josephs -3 (-110)

risk: 11 units

9:00 pm est ncaab
nebraska vs. Minnesota

pick: Minnesota +3.5 (-110)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Predictable Patterns :
Nebraska under

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XS Sports Wednesday Selections NCAA Hoops

ADDING

NCAA BK: Old Dominion -8.5