Saturday 1-12-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:29 AM

Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Predictions 2019-01-12

NFL Predictions 9th January 2019 by Gracenote
Colts vs. Chiefs Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 01/09/2019

History does not favor the Kansas City Chiefs entering Saturday's AFC divisional round matchup versus the sixth-seeded Indianapolis Colts, but that does not concern the overwhelming favorite for league MVP honors. Second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL's most prolific offense as the top-seeded Chiefs look to secure only their second win in 12 playoff appearances since 1994.

Mahomes, the driving force behind an offense that ranked No. 1 in total offense (425.6 yards) and points per game (35.3), bristled at the revelation that Kansas City went one-and-done in 10 of its last 11 trips to the postseason, including four losses to the Colts. "I know the history and stuff like that, but at the same time, we're a different generation," said Mahomes, who threw a league-high 50 touchdown passes. "I'm ready to go out there and win a football game at Arrowhead." Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck finished second to Mahomes with 39 scoring passes after missing the entire 2017 season, but Colts coach Frank Reich pointed to the other side of the ball as the reason for his team's success. "There's no doubt the defense is a huge part of the reason that we are where we're at," Reich said. "The reason, I think, is because, No. 1, we have good players. You can have a great scheme, but if you don't have good players, it doesn't matter."

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Chiefs -5.5 O/U: 57

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-6): Indianapolis overcame a 1-5 start by winning nine of its last 10 regular-season games and carried the momentum into the playoffs by knocking off No. 3 seed Houston 21-7 (as the Colts were +2 point underdog at intertops) as Luck threw a pair of first-half touchdown passes to stake his team to a 21-point lead. Running back Marlon Mack did the bulk of the heavy lifting by rushing for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries, his fifth 100-yard effort in 11 games. Dontrelle Inman has caught a scoring pass in each of the last three games, giving Luck another target opposite top wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who had five catches for 85 yards last week after amassing 1,270 yards during the regular season. The Colts' defense allowed a league-low 16.4 points over the final 10 weeks of the regular season.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (12-4): Mahomes joined Peyton Manning as the only players with at least 50 TD passes and 5,000 passing yards (5,097) while also finishing second to Drew Brees with a 113.8 passer rating in his first season as a starter. Mahomes threw for 13 scoring passes against two interceptions over the past five games following the release of star running back Kareem Hunt, which provided an increased role for Damien Williams (four rushing TDs in the last four games). Speedster Tyreek Hill had 87 catches for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns and is a threat to scoring from anywhere on the field while tight end Travis Kelce hauled in 103 receptions for 1,336 yards and 10 scores. The Chiefs tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks but were 31st in yards allowed (405.5).

EXTRA POINTS

1. The 89 TD passes by Mahomes and Luck are the most by any quarterbacks in an NFL playoff game.

2. Mahomes threw for at least 300 yards 10 times and had at least four scoring passes in seven games.

3. Indianapolis allowed the fewest sacks in the league with 18.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 31, Colts 30

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:29 AM

Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams Preview and Predictions 2019-01-12

NFL Predictions 9th January 2019 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 01/09/2019

Star running backs will be entrenched in the spotlight on Saturday as two-time league rushing champion Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys visit the defending NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley and the Rams in an NFC divisional round playoff game at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Elliott, who had a league-best 1,434 rushing yards this season, added 137 more and scored a touchdown in Dallas' 24-22 win over Seattle last weekend (as the Cowboys were -3 point favorite at intertops).

"Both big-time players who can do everything you want them to do on the field, and embrace carrying the burden for their team," Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said of Pro Bowl selections Elliott and Gurley. The 23-year-old Elliott will bid to become the fourth player in NFL history to record three consecutive postseason games with at least 125 rushing yards when he squares off against Los Angeles, which has been gashed for a league-worst 5.1 yards per rush. Gurley finished with 1,251 rushing yards and NFL-best 21 total touchdowns despite sitting out the Rams' final two games because of knee inflammation and soreness. The 24-year-old will need to overcome the injury as well as a Cowboys' rush defense that permitted an NFL fifth-best 3.8 yards per carry and limited the Seahawks' run-heavy offense to just 3.0 yards per rush.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Rams -7 O/U: 49.5

ABOUT THE COWBOYS: Quarterback Dak Prescott downplayed any lingering concerns about his health despite being added to the injury report after he came up a bit gimpy following a 16-yard run in the fourth quarter against Seattle. "Knee's good. I'm great," said the 25-year-old Prescott, who threw a touchdown pass to rookie Michael Gallup and also rushed for a score last week. In-season acquisition Amari Cooper followed up his third 1,000-yard campaign in four years with a team-best seven receptions for 106 yards versus the Seahawks, although he may find the going tough while lined up against cornerback Aqib Talib. Pro Bowl defensive end Demarcus Lawrence, who led the team with 10.5 sacks, has collected two to go along with two fumble recoveries in four career postseason games.

ABOUT THE RAMS (13-3): Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff (4,688 passing yards, 32 touchdowns) had his name being whispered among the NFL Most Valuable Player candidates before a pronounced three-week slump silenced that talk. The excitement circling the Coliseum hasn't dimmed, however, as Goff expects the noise to be ratcheted up and said the atmosphere will be "fun, fun and electric." Robert Woods posted career highs in receptions (86), receiving yards (1,219) and receiving touchdowns (six) while fellow wideout Brandin Cooks had 80 catches for 1,204 yards. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Aaron Donald received the 2018 Deacon Jones Award after leading the league in sacks (20.5) and could join Pro Football Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor (1986) as the lone players to collect at least 20 sacks and advance to the conference championship in the same season since 1982.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Los Angeles led the NFC in points per game (32.9) and total yards per contest (421.1) and ranked third in turnover differential (plus-11).

2. Dallas would match Pittsburgh (36) for the most postseason victories all-time should it win on Saturday.

3. Rams Pro Bowl LB Cory Littleton, who leads the team in tackles (125), recorded two of his three interceptions this season in a 48-32 win over San Francisco in Week 17.

PREDICTION: Rams 34, Cowboys 21

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:29 AM

AFC Divisional Notes

Saturday, Jan. 12, 2019

Indianapolis at Kansas City (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: BookMaker opened Kansas City -4 and the number was quickly pushed up to 5 (-115). The Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook sent out the Chiefs -5 ½ and the number has held steady at their property. Both outfits opened the total at 55 ½ and early ‘over’ wagers have pushed it up to 56.

Indianapolis Road Record: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
Kansas City Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: The last meeting between the pair took place in the 2016 regular season when Kansas City captured a 30-14 road win over Indianapolis as a 2 ½-point underdog. Prior to that outcome, the Colts had won three straight games over the Chiefs which included a 45-44 comeback victory at home in the 2013-14 AFC Wild Card round. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck owns a 3-1 all-time record versus the Chiefs and that includes a pair of wins at Arrowhead Stadium, when Indy stifled Kansas City in the 2012 (20-13) and 2013 (23-7) regular seasons.

Playoff Notes: The Colts improved to 4-3 in the playoffs with Luck under center after the club defeated the Texans 21-7 in last Saturday’s Wild Card win. Indianapolis has played five road games during this span and it’s gone 2-3 while averaging 16.6 points per game.

Going back to the 1994 postseason, the Chiefs are 1-10 both straight up and against the spread in their last 11 playoff matchups. During this span, Kansas City is 0-6 in its past six home playoff games dating back to a Wild-Card win in the 1993 playoffs against the Steelers. Last season, they dropped a 22-21 decision to the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Wild Card round, failing to cover as 8 ½-point home favorites.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid owns an 11-13 all-time record in the playoffs. He went 10-9 during his 14-year run with the Philadelphia Eagles but is just 1-4 in five games with the Chiefs, and the lone win came on the road. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 1-0 in the playoffs, the first win coming last Saturday.

Total Notes: Including last week’s result versus Houston, the Colts have watched the ‘under’ go 5-4 on the road this season. The defense has only allowed 12.8 PPG during this span and that’s resulted in a 3-1 lean to the low side. The Colts have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in seven playoff games during Luck’s tenure.

Kansas City watched the ‘under’ go 5-3 at home this season despite solid numbers from its offense (32.4 PPG). Those results were helped by the Chiefs defense, which allowed 34.6 PPG on the road and just 18 PPG at home. The Chiefs have watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in their last six playoff games, dating back to 2011 and that includes a 3-0 mark at Arrowhead.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:30 AM

NFC Divisional Notes

Saturday, Jan. 12, 2019

Dallas at L.A. Rams (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas Super Book sent out Los Angeles as a 6 ½-point home favorite with a total of 49 ½. The early money pushed the Rams quickly up to -7. BookMaker.eu also opened the Rams -6 ½ and they moved up to -7 as well. The offshore outfit sent out a total of 50 before quickly dropping to 49 ½.

Dallas Road Record: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Los Angeles Home Record: 7-1 SU, 3-3-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The pair met in last year’s regular season and the Rams defeated the Cowboys 35-30 as five-point road underdogs. The ‘over’ (50 ½) cashed easily. Prior to that matchup, the previous meeting took place in the 2014 regular season when the Rams still played in St. Louis. Dallas won that game, a 34-31 decision as a 1 ½-point road favorite while the ‘over’ (45) connected.

Playoff Notes: The Cowboys improved to 1-1 in the playoffs under QB Dak Prescott on Saturday as it defeated Seattle 24-22 as a 2 ½-point home favorite in the Wild Card matchup. Under head coach Jason Garrett, Dallas has gone 2-2 and the two wins came at home. During this span under Garrett, all four outcomes were decided by five points or less.

The Rams lost to the Falcons 26-13 in last year’s Wild Card round as a six-point home favorite. Prior to this result, the franchise’s previous trip to the postseason came in 2005.

Total Notes: Dallas has watched the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season and could easily be 10-7 if Seattle didn’t score a late touchdown in last Saturday’s playoff matchup. On the road, the Cowboys saw the ‘under’ go 6-2 and the offense (17.2 PPG) didn’t travel well. If you take away the 36-35 meaningless win at the N.Y. Giants in Week 17, Dallas averaged 15.5 PPG. Against playoff teams on the road, the Cowboys averaged 12.4 PPG and the ‘under’ went 4-1 in those games.

The Rams saw their total results end in a stalemate (8-8) this season but they produced a 6-2 ‘over’ mark at home. The offense averaged 37.1 PPG in Los Angeles, which was the top mark in the league for all hosts.

The defense for Los Angeles (28.1 PPG) struggled at the Coliseum this season and it was diced up by quality opponents. Versus playoff teams, the Rams allowed 33.8 PPG and the ‘over’ cashed in all four of those games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:30 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Division Round

Saturday, January 12

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Game 301-302
January 12, 2019 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
140.532
Kansas City
137.945
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+5 1/2); Over

Dallas @ LA Rams

Game 303-304
January 12, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
137.080
LA Rams
147.338
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 10
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
49
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-7); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:30 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, January 12

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INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (12 - 4) - 1/12/2019, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games in January games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (11 - 6) at LA RAMS (13 - 3) - 1/12/2019, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 191-239 ATS (-71.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 191-239 ATS (-71.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-189 ATS (-70.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 20-38 ATS (-21.8 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 67-102 ATS (-45.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-102 ATS (-44.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 41-63 ATS (-28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:31 AM

NFL

Division Round

Trend Report

Saturday, January 12

Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 13 games on the road
Indianapolis is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 13 games at home
Kansas City is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Dallas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 12 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
LA Rams is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
LA Rams is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Rams is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 7 games at home
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
LA Rams is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:32 AM

NFL

Division Round

All the home teams this week had last week off.

Colts @ Chiefs- Chiefs lost their last six home playoff games, with last win in ’94. KC lost two of its last three games after a 11-2 start; Chiefs are 7-1 SU at home this year, but covered only one of last five at Arrowhead. Mahomes has been great this year, but this is his first playoff game. Indy won 10 of its last 11 games after a 1-5 start; they’re in playoffs for first time in four years. Indy won won four of last five road games,; they’re 4-2 vs spread as a road underdog this year. Colts won six of last eight games with Chiefs, beating them 45-44 in ’13 playoffs (Colts are 4-0 vs KC in playoff games). Six of last eight Indy games stayed under the total; five of Chiefs’ last six games went over. #1 seeds are 9-1 SU in this round the last five years (6-4 vs spread).

Cowboys @ Rams- Rams haven’t won a playoff game in 14 years (0-1); there is added amount of pressure on them here. LA is 7-1 at home this year, 3-3-2 as HF. Dallas won eight of its last nine games, winning last two by total of 3 points; Cowboys are 3-5 on road this year but won three of last four road tilts; they covered six of last seven games as a dog. Rams scored 31-48 points in winning last two games, with backup RB Anderson running ball. Dallas won three of last four games with LA, but Rams won 35-30 in Dallas LY, rallying back from 24-13 first half deficit; Gurley had 215 total yards (94 YR), Cowboys ran for 189. Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game since 2014 (1-2). Last five years, #2-seeds are 2-7-1 vs spread in this round, 6-4 SU.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:32 AM

Hot & Not Report

Week of Jan 7th

Who's Hot

At least one NFL Divisional round home team has lost SU in 12 of the last 13 years – 13 of 16 years since realignment (2002-03)

For football fans/bettors that were lucky enough to cash or see their team (Colts, Cowboys, Chargers, Eagles) survive a hotly contested Wild Card weekend, this historical trend is a continued reason for optimism this week. After all, those playoff jitters are completely out of the way now, and your team is now two wins away from a Super Bowl appearance.

Considering that at least one of the four Wild Card winners has advanced to the Conference Championship in 12 of the last 13 NFL playoffs, chances are one of the Colts, Cowboys, Chargers, or Eagles will be playing for a conference crown in about two weeks. And with all four of them being at least four-point underdogs at current market prices, ML options are out there – the lowest being LA Chargers at +175ish – to add a boost to your bankroll.

Obviously, breaking it down to which team(s) of the four will pull off the upset is much harder, and it isn't all good news either. During the eight playoff campaigns this decade (starting with the 2010-11 season), there have never been more than two Wild Card winners to advance – happened twice in the 2010-11 and 2016-17 seasons – and it's also the stretch of that 13-year span where we did have one season with all four home teams advancing (2015-16).

So, even though the historical odds may be in favor of at least one of these Wild Card teams moving past the Divisional round, I wouldn't go backing more than two of them on the ML if so inclined. Only once since the realignment season of 2002-03 have we had three Wild Card winners move on to the Conference Championship (2008-09).

Yet, maybe this next part can help narrow down your selections in terms of which team(s) to back SU and ATS in the Divisional round.

Who's Not

Wild Card teams off a win of two points or less (Dallas, Philadelphia) are 1-8 SU and 4-4-1 ATS in the Divisional round since realignment (2002-03)

This is the part where Eagles and Cowboys fans might want to stop reading, as history is definitely not on their side for their upcoming games. The fact that two of the four games this past weekend were decided by two points or less was very intriguing to me, as on the surface, it's got to be hard for those teams to rebound (mentally and physically) just seven days later from such an intense win.

After going back and checking the past results of teams in that role, things are looking bleak for the Cowboys and Eagles to advance much further, considering only one team – the 2010 New York Jets – has come off a win by two or fewer points to advance the following week.

That history might be enough of a reason to eliminate the Cowboys and Eagles from ML consideration for being one of those Wild Card teams that does get through this round as mentioned above, but obviously this year's version of those teams have no relation at all to the others that have fallen before them in this role. But history is history, and it does not look good for those NFC East squads.

Furthermore, while some might point out that backing these teams of a close win is 4-4-1 ATS, and both the Cowboys and Eagles are currently getting at least a TD on the spreads, let me throw out one more stat to suggest that even taking those points may be a bad idea.

Of those nine scenarios with Wild Card winners off a two-point or less win, their record ATS when catching less than 9 points in the Divisional round is 0-3-1 ATS.

So, while on the surface it may seem like too many points to pass up with the Cowboys and Eagles, history would suggest that any spread under -9 is probably worth consideration on the home side.

We all know that the Rams and Saints are more than capable of putting up plenty of points in a hurry and blowing teams out this year, and with the whole “what have you seen last” mentality that permeates through the NFL market most weeks going to be on the side of the Cowboys and Eagles, market sentiment towards those teams could grow even further throughout the week and push these spreads even shorter. Just something to look out for as the week goes on.

Finally, it's not all bad news in terms of betting angles for these small Wild Card winners, as they do own a 5-3-1 O/U record in the Divisional round off a win of two or less points, with an average combined score of 48.2 points in those games. Now, I get that that average score is still below both respective totals for the Cowboys and Eagles upcoming games, but six of the nine games total have finished with at least 49 points, so maybe the 'over' in the Cowboys/Rams game is going to be the better look of the two.

Put it all together, and if the run of at least one Bye week team falling this week continues to make it 13 of the last 14 years, I've got to believe it will come from one of the two AFC matchups. Based on those two games having the smaller point spreads it's easy to say that in general, but these historical results back that.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:32 AM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

TATE’S BIG DAY

If we’re not counting Bears kicker Cody Parkey, receiver Golden Tate is Philadelphia’s hero this week after his last-minute touchdown grab gave the Eagles the lead and eventually the win on Sunday. Tate wound up catching five passes for 46 yards, finally validating the third-round pick that the Eagles paid to acquire him back at the trade deadline.

Tate and the Eagles travel to New Orleans on Sunday to take on the Saints as a 7.5-point underdog with a game total of 50.5. Tate will be in a good spot to have another nice performance against a Saints defense that is ranked 22nd in passing DVOA. The game script could also be in his favor as the Eagles should be chasing points as a big underdog — although that was also supposed to happen last week and didn’t.

Tate posted five catches for 48 yards back in Week 11 when Philly got smoked at the Superdome and we’re expecting a similar receiving line this week. Take the Over on his receptions total, assuming it’s set at 4.5 when prop markets open later in the week.

NO ANSWERS IN PHILLY’S BACKFIELD

Heading into Wild Card weekend we talked about how Philadelphia’s backfield has become a running back committee. Things became a bit more clear on Sunday as Josh Adams was taken out of the game plan with one carry for two yards. Darren Sproles wound up leading the Eagles in carries with 13 for 21 yards, while Wendell Smallwood took eight handoffs for 20 yards. Both recorded two receptions, while Sproles out-snapped Smallwood 38 to 28.

We predicted last week that Sproles would be heavily involved as the preferred pass-catching option in a game where the Eagles were supposed to have been playing catch up. Instead, Philly played with the lead for most of the game and Sproles was still the No. 1 back (although he lost us a bet by coming up 4.5 yards shy of his receiving yards total). This week is very similar for the Eagles as they are a big road dog and going against one of the best run defenses in the NFL as the Saints rank third in rushing DVOA.

However there’s one big difference between New Orleans and Chicago: the Bears rank 10th in passing DVOA against running backs, while the Saints rank 29th. We expect Sproles to be the preferred backfield option on Sunday and for Foles to target him a few more times than he did this past weekend. We’re again taking the Over for Sproles’ receiving yards total.

HENRY ACTIVATED

The Chargers activated Hunter Henry from injured reserve on Monday, meaning he’ll be making his season debut as Los Angeles plays New England on Sunday. There were reports early last week that he’d be on the field for the Wild Card game after getting in some practices last week, but that didn’t happen.

It will be hard to trust Henry on Sunday as he’s likely to play just a handful of snaps as he works his way back from the ACL tear he suffered during OTAs. At 6-foot 5, Henry is a big target who could make a key play or two on third down or in the red zone after catching 12 touchdowns through his first 29 games in the NFL. The Patriots are one of the better teams in the league at defending tight ends with a DVOA rank of eight against the position. However, the Pats did allow eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which is tied for the fifth-most in the league.

We’re not big on backing players in their first games returning from injury, but if you’re looking for a high-risk, high-reward bet, backing Henry to go Over 0.5 touchdown receptions or to score a touchdown at any time could pay out nicely.

ANOTHER MACK ATTACK?

Marlon Mack faced a very tough matchup against Houston’s top-ranked defense in rushing DVOA and proceeded to go off for 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. We’d like to say we saw it coming, but we didn’t. We did get a winner in backing Mack to score a touchdown at any time but we thought he’d have a hard time reaching his rushing yards total of 49.5 against the stout Houston front seven.

On paper, this week’s matchup is much juicier for Mack as the Colts take on the Chiefs who ranked dead-last in the league in rushing DVOA. The Chiefs allowed 132.1 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL) on five yards per carry (31st in the league). Indianapolis should come out with a run-heavy approach on Saturday in hopes of keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field, much like Seattle did when it gave Chris Carson 27 carries in its Week 16 upset of K.C. We’re taking the Over on Mack’s rushing yards total for the Divisional Round.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:33 AM

Divisional Playoff Trends
Bruce Marshall

While Division Playoff Round games were once fertile territory for home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has disappeared in recent years. Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road underdogs stand 32-23-2 against the number in these playoff games.

Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round. Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts are off a “bye” and a week of rest.

And almost all of the “powerhouse” NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round “bye” group, including 63 of the last 78 Super Bowl participants since '78 (when the first-round "bye" was introduced; the 1982 "strike" season, with no byes, not included).

At least one top conference seed has met defeat in Division Rounds in seven of the past eleven seasons, though five of the six top seeds won all of the way thru their respective conference playoffs the past three years.

Also identifiable in the past with this round are one-sided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades. In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.

Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a fair 55% clip (46-38-3) in the Division Round since ‘75.

A recent Division Round trend note has been on the “totals” side, in particular “overs,” now 22-10 since the 2010 playoffs after a 3-1 marks in both the 2016 and 2017 postseasons.

Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975.

Our “charting” begins with the ’75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.

A “margin of victory” chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:33 AM

Indianapolis at Kansas City
Kyle Markus

NFL Game Preview - Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

The Indianapolis Colts are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and they made easy work of the Texans in the AFC Wild Card round. However, the degree of difficulty goes way up on Saturday as they travel to Kansas City to face off against the top-seeded Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round.

The Chiefs have the most explosive offense in the NFL and are the favorites to emerge from the conference and make it to the Super Bowl. They need a pair of victories to get there, the first of which over the Colts. Indianapolis has found a great formula for success on offense and will aim to keep up.

The Chiefs are at home and have more talent which makes Indy the underdog, but the oddsmakers don’t believe an upset is completely out of the question in NFL wagering.

This NFL football game between the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs will be held at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 12th, 2019. The game will be nationally televised on NBC.

Odds Analysis

The Chiefs are currently listed as the 5.5-point favorites in this matchup. Kansas City is -240 on the moneyline while Indianapolis is the +199 underdog to pull off the upset.

The scoring total is listed at 57 points, which is not a surprise. Even though the wild card round was dominated by the defenses, the quarterback matchup in this one is big time and each side has the capacity to put up numbers in bunches in NFL wagering.

Key Stat

3. That’s the number of losses for the Chiefs in their past six games after a red hot start. The defeats came at the hands of the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks and all came down to the wire. The lull can be taken one of two ways: either teams have started to figure out Kansas City or the NFL has parity and the Chiefs were bound to start losing some games.

Kansas City did bounce back with an easy 35-3 win over the Raiders in the regular season finale to clinch the top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs are aiming to show the losses were not a harbinger of things to come by picking up this victory and advancing to the AFC Championship game.

Injury Report

The Chiefs have a pair of key players with injuries. Star safety Eric Berry has been out for most of the season with a heel injury, but was able to practice in a limited capacity on Tuesday. Keep a close eye on his status. The Chiefs’ weakness is their defense and a healthy Berry would be a big boost.

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins is dealing with a foot injury that forced him to miss six games on the year. The Chiefs have Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce as a pair of elite skill players, but Watkins’ presence makes it nearly impossible for opponents to shut them down.

The Colts had a handful of players who were limited early in the week but are mostly healthy. They are hoping safety Mike Mitchell will be available to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the elite Kansas City passing game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:33 AM

Dallas at Los Angeles
Tom Wilkinson

NFL Divisional Playoff Game – Cowboys at Rams

The Los Angeles Rams are favored by a touchdown at home on Saturday night, as they host the Dallas Cowboys in an NFL Divisional Playoff game on FOX.

The Cowboys are coming off a win last week against Seattle in the Wild Card round, while the Rams had a bye. This will be a matchup between the solid defense of the Cowboys that ranked No. 6 in the NFL in fewest points allowed and the explosive offense of the Rams that ranked No. 2 in the league in most points scored.

Let’s look at this Divisional Playoff matchup and NFL picks.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Date and Time: Saturday, January 12, 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
NFL Odds: Rams -7, O/U 49.5
Cowboys vs. Rams TV Coverage: FOX

There is no question the NFL is a passing league, but the Cowboys and Rams both like to run the ball because they have two of the top running backs in the league. Ezekiel Elliott led the league in rushing, while Gurley led the league with 21 touchdowns. The Cowboys should be very focused on running the ball, as the Rams were just 23rd in the NFL against the run this season. The Rams may choose to throw the ball more, as the Cowboys were 5th in the NFL against the run.

Both teams have young quarterbacks at the helm. The Cowboys have Dak Prescott who has played better since the team acquired Amari Cooper from the Raiders. Whether he can hold up against Aaron Donald and the Rams defense is the question. The Rams should have more success throwing the ball, as Jared Goff has a lot of weapons at his disposal and the Cowboys pass rush is not nearly as threatening as the Rams.

Key Matchup

The matchup that will decide this game is the Rams offense against the Cowboys defense. If the Cowboys can’t contain Gurley and Goff then this game is going to turn into a rout. The Rams have so many different weapons that it is hard to see Dallas keeping them all in check. Gurley is still considered the best back in the league and Los Angeles has excellent receivers in Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks.

Key Stats

These teams met a year ago and it was the Rams winning 35-30. The Cowboys are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games on grass. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Divisional Playoffs games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

Looking at the total, the Under is 6-1 in the Cowboys last 7 games on grass. The Under is 10-4 in the Cowboys last 14 games in January. The Under is 5-2 in the Rams last 7 games in January.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-12-2019, 08:34 AM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

GORDON EXPECTED TO PLAY

Reports on Tuesday were that the Chargers expect running back Melvin Gordon to play on Sunday at New England after a knee issue cost him snaps early in their Wild Card win over Baltimore. Gordon is apparently dealing with a slight knee sprain which is a similar issue to the one that forced him out of three games earlier in the season.

We backed a winner in predicting the Under for Gordon’s rushing yards total in what was a very difficult matchup against the Ravens. He did manage to find the end zone, however, which saved his day from a fantasy perspective. This week, he faces an easier matchup on paper as New England ranked 19th in rushing DVOA during the regular season (the Ravens were ranked sixth).

However, the Pats were one of the stingiest team in the league when it came to giving up rushing touchdowns as they allowed just seven all season, the second-fewest in the league. We’ll dig into his totals later in the week but the early-week lean is to the Under 0.5 for his rushing touchdowns total.

GURLEY TO PRACTICE

The Rams will have Todd Gurley back on the field when they return to practice on Wednesday. Gurley also participated in the walk-throughs on Tuesday, so he’s certainly trending upwards for the Rams Divisional Round matchup with the Cowboys, although nothing has been confirmed. It’s too early to make a call on Gurley’s props for the weekend as we’ll want to see what the markets open at and how he practices throughout the week.

Gurley does face a tough matchup against a Cowboys defense that ranked fifth in DVOA in the regular season and allowed just 59 rushing yards on 21 attempts to Seattle’s running backs last week. We’ll dig in deeper later this week, but the initial lean would be to fade Gurley in a very tough matchup, especially if he’s at less than 100 percent.

HILTON HELD OUT

Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton was held out of practice on Tuesday with the same ankle issue that has been bothering him for the better part of a month. This should come as no surprise to anyone who has been following Hilton closely this season; Hilton’s weekly routine has been to not practice early in the week, get in a limited session late in the week, and then go out and dominate on game day. The good news is that Hilton did not suffer a setback on Wild Card weekend. Expect him to suit up on Saturday at Kansas City assuming no further injury in practice this week.

Hilton will have a shot at a monster day on Sunday against the Chiefs’ 26th-ranked defense in overall DVOA. The Chiefs do possess a better pass defense (12th in passing DVOA) than rush defense (32nd in rushing DVOA), but Saturday’s game has the making of a shootout with Andrew Luck and Patrick Mahomes potentially going back and forth all afternoon in a game that has a total of 57. We’ll be looking to back the Over on Hilton’s receiving yards total as soon as the prop markets open.

WATKINS LIMITED

Chiefs receiver Sammy Watkins returned to practice for the first time in a month on Tuesday but was labeled as limited. Watkins hasn’t played since getting on the field for a few snaps in Week 11 and hasn’t contributed since Week 9. He is trending to be a game-time decision for Saturday's game against Indianapolis.

Watkins was having an inconsistent season before getting hurt, with four games of 74-plus receiving yards and three games with 21 yards or less. If he does return on Saturday, it might seem like a decent matchup because of the game total of 57 — by far the highest total of the week — but remember that the Colts are very tough on wide receivers. Here’s what we wrote last week:

""The Colts’ defense allows just 44.5 percent of an opponent’s completed passes to go to wide receivers. That’s the lowest rate in the league. They allowed the fewest receptions in the league to wide receivers (166) and the second-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers (1,953). Unsurprisingly, they’re also tough against WR1s, allowing just 6.7 passes for 59.9 yards per game.""

The Colts then went out and allowed just five receptions for 37 yards to De’Andre Hopkins (although it should be noted that Hopkins reportedly played hurt and that Keke Coutee did post 11 receptions for 110 yards). Still, if Watkins returns he will be at less than 100 percent and presumably rusty after missing close to two months of action. We’ll be looking to fade him in a tough matchup if he’s active on Saturday.

Saturday 1-12-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 1-12-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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