Monday 3-4-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
Louisiana Downs - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta


Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $3,800 • Post: 1:00P
QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * COULDAKISSEDTHIS: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DIAMOND MIND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KINGSLAYER: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5
COULDAKISSEDTHIS
2/1

3/1
2
DIAMOND MIND
6/5

9/2
4
KINGSLAYER
7/2

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
DIAMOND MIND
2

6/5
Slow
68

57

7.0

0.0

0.0
3
XDW HEZPOLITICAL
3

12/1
Slow
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
4
KINGSLAYER
4

7/2
Fast
52

49

3.4

0.0

0.0
5
COULDAKISSEDTHIS
5

2/1
Average
76

62

4.2

0.0

0.0
6
FLYIN TIGER
6

15/1
Average
66

45

5.5

0.0

0.0








Unknown Running Style: ROYAL DOMINYUN (8/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Everardo - Trainer: Sanchez Hector J].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $4300 Class Rating: 78

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 TH MAVERICK 7/2

# 2 JESS WRANGLER 6/1

# 3 MIGHTY DORIS 4/1

TH MAVERICK looks very strong to best this field. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this field in his last competition. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. With a strong 72 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. JESS WRANGLER - His 70 average has this gelding with among the best speed figures here. Seems to have a competitive class edge based on the latest company kept. MIGHTY DORIS - Win percentage one of the most respectable in this group of horses in this race. Has been consistently racing well recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 8

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 20 Cent High Five


Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $9,500 • Post: 4:02P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GATO STYLE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GATO STYLE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DISTINCT APPROVAL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SPECIAL CONQUEST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the di stance/surface. ENCOURAGED: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5
GATO STYLE
3/1

4/1
7
DISTINCT APPROVAL
2/1

4/1
9
SPECIAL CONQUEST
6/1

6/1
8
ENCOURAGED
10/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
5
GATO STYLE
5

3/1
Alternator/Front-runner
59

48

46.1

49.0

40.0
7
DISTINCT APPROVAL
7

2/1
Alternator/Stalker
62

55

57.5

51.8

49.8
9
SPECIAL CONQUEST
9

6/1
Trailer
61

55

21.8

50.6

43.1
8
ENCOURAGED
8

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
58

52

46.8

42.0

31.0
10
Z RED ROCKET
10

8/1
Alternator/Trailer
0

0

40.0

35.0

23.5
6
HEY GOOD LOOKIN
6

4/1
Alternator/Non-contender
56

48

70.0

33.6

23.1
1
JOURNEY EAST
1

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

45.8

25.3

14.3
2
SHANGHAI CHICK
2

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

44.8

33.4

20.4
4
GUMMY OSO
4

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

43.0

19.4

2.4
3
EVERYBODYLUVSLUCY
3

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
47

36

32.8

30.6

16.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $22100 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1A GARDEN QUALITY 3/1

# 9 TWO BIT KID 7/2

# 1 CLASSIC BUTCH 3/1

My choice in this competition is GARDEN QUALITY. Posted a reliable speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Bettors using horses with this rider and conditioner duo have done strongly lately. TWO BIT KID - Could best this group of horses in this race here, showing competitive figures of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Delong running at this distance are the most competitive in this field. CLASSIC BUTCH - Must be given consideration in this race if only for the very good Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last competition. Casalinova has this gelding racing well and is a very good selection based on the formidable speed figures earned in sprint races recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #10 - Post: 4:58pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 FIRE COMMAND (ML=6/1)
#6 ASTROLOGY HILL (ML=5/1)


FIRE COMMAND - Perez and Brown partnered together are a punter's friend. Traditional handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. This one is live today. ASTROLOGY HILL - Likes to go to the front and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be beneficial. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the capability to make her presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 I CRIED A TEAR (ML=5/2), #1 GRAND BLUE HARBOR (ML=7/2), #1A BRAYDENS START (ML=7/2),

I CRIED A TEAR - If you keep choosing these sort of 'hanger' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. This mount has no victories in her last ten chances. She's probably not worth the price on the win end today. May bounce off of that last physical exertion. All sorts of crazy zip signed up for this contest. Slight chance for this speedball. GRAND BLUE HARBOR - On a downward spiraling cycle. Speed figures keep deteriorating. This entrant didn't do too much last time out finishing fifth. Don't see any chance of any improvement today. BRAYDENS START - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance contests lately. Doubtful to see her doing it this time around either. Not likely that this animal will finish better than she did last time out when finishing seventh. Finished seventh in her most recent race with a run-of-the-mill speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #2 FIRE COMMAND on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #8 - Post: 4:14pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 TREVOR'S CALL (ML=7/2)
#7 MARICOPA COUNTY (ML=9/2)


TREVOR'S CALL - You'll be generating profits left and right by turning your racing money onto this jockey/handler combination. This gelding is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished in the place spot easily ahead of the 3rd place finisher in his last race. The last time he tried this distance he got a fig good enough to win this event. MARICOPA COUNTY - Last race out on the sod, this equine was solid. Anything close in this event, and this one should win. This jockey and trainer's animals have been producing a positive return on investment. Racing at a similar level as last race on February 13th at Turf Paradise. I think Grissom has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 WARREN'S FANDANGO (ML=3/1), #1 REAL LUTE (ML=4/1), #4 TAYLOREALSWIFT (ML=6/1),

WARREN'S FANDANGO - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in short distance events in order to support him. REAL LUTE - This gelding is always hitting the board, but just doesn't win. Difficult to wager on him on the front end. TAYLOREALSWIFT - If you keep selecting these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disillusioned frequently.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TREVOR'S CALL - Simply stated, horses don't like to get dirt kicked in their face. This gelding will be so far ahead of the field, he won't ever have that issue.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 TREVOR'S CALL is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Duke

Mar 04 '19, 7:00 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | Virginia vs Syracuse
Play on: Virginia -6½ -105 at betonline

Virginia/Syracuse 7:00: Virginia has thrived on the road and looks to quiet the Carrier Dome crowd tonight. The Cavaliers are coming off an easy win over Pittsburgh - a game in which Coach Bennett rested Guy, Jerome and Hunter late to allow lots of bench players to get action. Syracuse is coming off a blowout win over lightweight Wake Forest but the jury is still out on how they're playing down the stretch. Orange was just 4 of 19 from 3 point range on Saturday. Virginia is the #1 defense in the nation and #1 guarding the perimeter. And Virginia rarely will give up easy baskets. Sure, the Syracuse 2-3 zone gives teams fits but Virginia's PG Clark has 14 assists and no turnovers over his last 3 games. Virginia is skilled in finding open shots as evidenced by their 48% FG (33rd in nation). Orange just 1-10 ATS last 11 home vs a team with a road winning % above .600. Virginia the call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Mar 04 '19, 7:00 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | Virginia vs Syracuse
Play on: Syracuse +7 -115 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on Syracuse +7 -115

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Marc David

Mar 04 '19, 8:35 PM in 12h
NBA | Nuggets vs Spurs
Play on: Spurs -105 at BMaker

DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO
The Denver Nuggets have been surprisingly good this season, but many experts have doubted that team without a true superstar could continue to be this successful. They are only 1.5 games out of first place in the Western Conference, but they come into San Antonio off back to back home losses. The Nuggets haven't been great on the road, but the Spurs sure have been great at home. The home team has won nine of the last 10 head to head meetings between these two teams, and the Spurs have won five straight at home versus Denver. The Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in San Antonio.
Take SA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Mar 04 '19, 9:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-B | Kansas State vs TCU
Play on: TCU +1½ -105 at Bovada

Free Play on TCU +1½ -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday's Tip Sheet
David Schwab

As the college basketball regular season continues to grind to a close in anticipation of this year’s conference tournaments, there are a trio of games on Monday night in both the ACC and the Big 12 that could have a big impact on the final standings.

Getting things started as part of ESPN’s Big Monday, the No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers will be on the road against Syracuse. Later that night in Lubbock, No. 11 Texas Tech will play host to the Texas Longhorns in the first Big 12 clash. As a bonus betting game in that same conference, No. 16 Kanas State will be on the road against TCU.

No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers at Syracuse Orange (ESPN , 7:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Virginia -7, Total 121

Betting Matchup

The Cavaliers head into the final week of the regular season tied with North Carolina for the lead in the ACC at a straight-up 14-2. They started their current six-game winning streak with a eight-point win against the Tar Heels on Feb. 11 as one-point road underdogs. Virginia (26-2 SU, 21-7 ATS) is 5-1 against the spread during this same span with the total staying UNDER in four of the six games. By holding Pittsburgh to just 49 points in Saturday’s 24-point win at home, the Cavaliers’ points-allowed average stands at 54.1.

With Saturday’s 79-54 romp over Wake Forest as a 7 ½-point road favorite, Syracuse moved to 10-6 SU in ACC play as part of a 19-10 record overall. The Orange have covered the closing spread in four of their last six games with the total staying UNDER in five of those contests. They have a 4-2 record ATS in their last six home games. Junior guard Tyrus Battle scored 21 points against Pitt on Saturday and the defense did the rest to secure the win. He leads the team in scoring with 17.7 points per game.
Betting Trends

-- The Cavaliers have gone 18-7-1 in their last 26 games played on Monday. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five games against a team with a SU winning record.

-- The Orange are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a SU win with the total staying UNDER in four of their last five home games.

-- The underdog has covered the closing spread in four of the last five meetings with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in the last four meetings in Syracuse.

Texas Longhorns at No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders (ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Texas Tech -8, Total 131 ½

Betting Matchup

Texas moved to 5-4 SU in its last nine games with Saturday’s 86-69 upset against Iowa State as a slight one-point home underdog. The Longhorns have gone 8-1 ATS during this same span with the total going OVER in five of their last seven games. They are an even 8-8 SU in Big 12 play as part of an overall record of 16-13. Texas is 6-3 ATS this season on the road. Back on Jan. 12, it lost to Texas Tech at home 68-62 as a 1 ½-point favorite. Jase Febres put up a career-high 26 points in Saturday’s win with the Longhorns’ leading scorer Kerwin Roach II out of the lineup due to an ongoing suspension.

The Red Raiders are tied with Kansas State for the lead in the Big 12 at 12-4. They have won their last seven games SU while going 6-1 ATS with Saturday’s 81-66 victory against TCU as four-point road favorites. The total has gone OVER in Texas Tech’s las four outings. It is 24-5 SU (13-15-1 ATS) overall with a SU six-game winning streak on its home court. Sophomore guard Jarrett Culver is averaging a team-high 17.9 PPG and he has exceeded that average in four of his last five games.

Betting Trends

-- The Longhorns are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and the total has gone OVER in their last four games coming off an ATS win.

-- The Red Raiders have a 4-1 record ATS in their last five home games with the total going OVER in four of those games.

-- The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last three games between the two.

No. 16 Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Kansas State -1, Total 131 ½

Betting Matchup

Kansas State (22-7 SU, 16-13 ATS) remains in contention for the Big 12 regular season title with Saturday’s 66-60 victory at home against Baylor. The Wildcats failed to cover as 6 ½-point home favorites to slip to 2-3 ATS over their last five games. The total stayed UNDER 127 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last four contests. Dean Wade had the hot hand against Baylor with 20 points with senior guard Barry Brown Jr. adding 10 points to the winning cause. Brown leads the Wildcats in scoring with 15.1 PPG, but he has only scored a combined 24 points in his last three starts.

The Horned Frogs only have one win (SU and ATS) in their last six games after coming up well short in Saturday’s loss to Texas Tech. They are 6-10 SU in conference play with a 5-11 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in seven of TCU’s last 10 games overall and it is 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home. Coming into this game, it is 18-11 SU overall with a 14-15 record ATS. The Horned Frogs are averaging 75.5 PPG, but they are giving up an average of 70.9 points on defense. Last week, they gave up 104 points in an overtime loss to West Virginia.

Betting Trends

-- The Wildcats have covered in eight of their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five Monday games.

-- The Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games played on Monday.

-- Kansas State won the first meeting this season 65-55 as a four-point home favorite to improve to 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The total has stayed UNDER in the last four matchups.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top 25 Betting Recap
Joe Williams

We're winding down the regular season, and the pressure isn't too much for some teams, while a few other Top 25 teams have been wilting in a big way. One of those previously highly-ranked teams that are in freefall is Nevada (26-3 SU, 16-11-1 ATS) was humming right along until Feb. 20 at San Diego State (19-10 SU, 16-12 ATS). They lost that game by eight, and lost again this past week against Utah State (24-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) in Logan over the weekend. The Wolf Pack are suddenly looking mortal away from home, and they have failed to cover each of the past four. A lack of defense is particularly concerning, as they have yielded 77.0 points per game (PPG) over the past two, more than 10 points over their season average (66.7 PPG). They have a rematch with the Aztecs coming up this week, and probably could use a big win before heading into the postseason.

Maryland (21-9 SU, 15-14-1 ATS) has dropped two in a row, and three of the past five. A pair of losses to Michigan (26-4 SU, 17-13 ATS) is no embarrassment, but a 17-point loss at Penn State (12-17 SU, 13-14-2 ATS) certainly isn't going to wow the NCAA Tournament committee when it's time to dole out seedings. The Terps are just 5-6 SU in their past 11 games overall, and 2-5 SU/ATS in the past seven games either on the road or on a neutral-site court. Also in the Big Ten, Wisconsin (20-9 SU, 14-14-1 ATS) has been a .500 team over the past six outings, and they're 0-5-1 ATS during the span. They'll meet the equally disappointing Hawkeyes of Iowa (21-8 SU, 12-17 ATS), who have suddenly forgotten how to cover a spread. The Hawkeyes are 1-3 SU over the past four outings, and they have failed to cover six straight and eight of the past 10 contests.

Marquette (23-6 SU, 18-11 ATS) is feeling the pressure of March, falling to a mediocre Creighton (16-13 SU, 14-14 ATS) side for their second consecutive loss and non-cover. The Golden Eagles are crumbling, going just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS across the past seven outings, too. The only thing that has been consistent for Marquette has been the 'under', hitting in six of the past eight contests.

Cincinnati (25-4 SU, 12-17 ATS) has won five in a row since a 65-58 loss at Houston (27-2 SU, 19-9-1 ATS) on Feb. 10. The Bearcats failed to cover in that game, however, and that touched off an 0-6 ATS skid heading into the new week. The 'under' has connected in four in a row for Cincy, however, and the under is 6-1 across the past seven. Houston lost to UCF (25-4 SU, 12-17 ATS), as the Golden Knights have squeezed into the picture for a potential at-large NCAA Tournament bid. The Cougars had no answers for 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall, and the Knights will now set their sights on Cincinnati this week.

One team not struggling straight-up or against the number is Wofford (26-4 SU, 16-11 ATS) of the SoCon, as they have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament, and could have done enough in the regular season to nail down an at-large bid even if they stumble next week and fail to lock down an automatic bid. The Terriers went 18-0 on conference play, and they have covered eight of their past nine outings. The only losses for the Terriers came against North Carolina (24-5 SU, 17-10-2 ATS) in the season opener Nov. 6, at Oklahoma (18-11 SU, 18-8-3 ATS) on Nov. 18, at Kansas (22-7 SU, 13-16 ATS) on Dec. 4 and at Mississippi State (21-8 SU, 15-14 ATS) on Dec. 19. That loss to the Bulldogs was their last setback. They also have resume-building wins at South Carolina (14-15 SU, 12-16 ATS), as well as a pair of wins by an average of 29.5 points vs. UNC Greensboro (26-5 SU, 13-15-1 ATS), a team ranked 33rd in RPI, as well as a sweep against Wofford (24-6 SU, 11-16 ATS), a SoCon team which previously appeared in the Top 25.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tournament Time
Jim Feist

My head is spinning, and I’m loving it!

It’s time for six weeks of madness….

Many times, over the last four or five decades this has been a very profitable time.

Let’s break it down. There are four post season tournaments. The CBI, CIT, NIT and of course the granddaddy of them all the NCAA Men's Tournament.

Before we get to all of that, the madness begins with the Conference Tournaments. This is where teams that play the teams involved have played each other, for the most part for the last six to eight weeks. By having that mix, we get to analyze different aspects to handicapping than we will in the season ending tournaments mentioned above.

Those aspects of handicapping are mostly focused on history and familiarity. When teams play each over often, players get to know each other and get to learn each other’s strengths and weaknesses. In turn, us handicappers get to use that information in our analysis.

The first element of handicapping I use is to make my own line, and believe me that is much easier to do, when teams that play each other have been playing in very similar power rating ranges, which is what happens when they have been playing similar opponents in their own conference.

Revenge is a tool that is used often by cappers. It can be a very effective tool but can be overused. Some cappers have used it effectively, but they are the cappers that use it selectively. Just because team A beat team B by 20 pts does not mean team B will be able to turn the tables in the next meeting. Sometimes one team is just too good for the other and unless the superior team doesn’t show up, the weaker team will not be able to turn the tables.

Style matters. Pace matters. There are so many things to be aware but too much info can lead to paralysis by analysis. Therefore putting together a strong database throughout the season gives you a solid foundation.

Here it is late February/early March and the madness, so to speak has already begun. In the last few weeks, we have seen the potential No. 1 NBA draft choice, Zion Williamson of Duke go down with injury. We have also seen an increasing number on underdogs not only cover but also win outright, over high-ranking opponents. Yes, the Madness has already begun and I Love It.

What has already begun as well is the annual debate over, who’s in and who’s out. Unfortunately, the committee will never get this right, wherein they will satisfy everyone. No one can ever satisfy everyone.

Let’s begin with a look at the Conference Tournaments and move on from there.

ACC: This is one of the very top conferences. Clearly Duke is the team to beat. If they are absent Zion, they still have enough weapons to be very dangerous. North Carolina and Virginia also stand out, but this is a very strong conference, so there are a few others that could catch fire. I believe the strongest outsider team is Florida State. My Conference Pick is Duke if Zion plays and North Carolina if he does not.

American Athletic: Don’t sleep on these teams. Both Houston, who is having a remarkable season, and Cincinnati are very capable to move on and do some damage if they get in the Big Dance. Central Florida with their 7’6” center is also very capable. I don’t see all three in the Big Dance, but it could happen. My Conference Pick is Houston

Atlantic 10: No one in this league looks to be able to go to the next level but one may. The winner of their tournament has a shot to get in. Davidson, Dayton or Virginia Commonwealth are the top dogs to consider. My Conference Pick is Virginia Commonwealth.

Big 12: This Conference is very tight. When a conference is this tight top to bottom, upsets are very likely to happen. Kansas State and Texas Tech look the best to me with just about everyone else having a shot, except for West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Multiple teams will make the Big Dance. My Conference Pick is Texas Tech

Big East: The best team in this Conference right now is Marquette. Defending National Champion Villanova is still a force but while Marquette is getting better Villanova is declining. This is a very balanced league with several dangerous clubs, with St John’s having shown signs they can beat anyone on a given day. My Conference Pick is Marquette

Big Ten: Top teams are Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue. A few others, Maryland and Wisconsin, follow closely and can upset the top group on any given day. My Conference Pick Michigan State.

Big West: I’m sure this conference tournament will be very competitive. The talent level is very thin, but Cal-Irvine and Cal State Fullerton should come out on top. My Conference Pick is Cal-Irvine.

Colonial: Like all the Conference Tourneys, the players want to win, and this will be no exception. Hofstra has played well all season as has College of Charleston and Northeastern. My Conference Pick is Hofstra.

Conference USA: Another small conference that will bring lots of excitement. This should be exciting but tough to handicap before it starts. This is where watching as many games as possible during tournament play will bring dividends. You could throw a blanket over about five teams to win this one. My conference Pick Old Dominion.

Horizon: Northern Kentucky and Wright State have the advantage here, but upsets can happen here with teams like Oakland and Illinois Chicago lurking. My conference Pick Wright State.

MAC: Buffalo is the clear choice here but could falter if they don’t come prepared. There are several speed bumps that could cause trouble from the other 11 teams in this group. Look out for Toledo and Bowling Green. My conference Pick Buffalo.

Missouri Valley: Remember last year’s Tournament darling? That was Loyola Chicago and the magic that Sister Jean brought to the event. That was exciting and really brought a lot of fans back for more. This year Loyola will need a little more help as they are not quite the same group. There are a few teams that could derail Loyola, especially Drake, who has been a bettor’s gold mine this year. Northern Iowa and Southern Illinois are close as well. Should be a battle for the title. My Conference Pick Northern Iowa.

Mountain West: As with all of these conferences, there are multiple land mines for the leaders to get past. Nevada is the clear choice here, but San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State all have the talent to upset the Wolfpack. Nevada has the better talent by far. My conference pick is Nevada.

PAC-12: What a disappointment this conference has been this year. Usually we get better quality out of the PAC-12. Washington stands out but a few others can surprise. There should only be one team going to the Big Dance from here. Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon are worth mentioning but my conference pick is Washington.

SEC: Like the ACC and Big 10, this league is loaded. Kentucky, LSU and Florida stand out to me. Others could easily be in the mix. Tennessee was for a time ranked #1 but their weak non-conference slate did not toughen them up enough. It will be a tough battle for the title and several teams will make the Big Dance, but my conference pick is Kentucky.

Sun Belt: Texas State is a hard team to prepare for, but these teams do know each other well. Georgia State also plays a tough brand of ball and Georgia Southern is very good. Not many hoop fans know about these clubs but beware, if they get to the Big Show, they can knock someone off. My conference pick is Texas State.

West Coast: It’s all Gonzaga as it usually is for this conference. The lack of big game experience could derail the Zags as it has in the past. Be that as it may, the Zags are one of the very best teams in the nation. My conference pick is Gonzaga.

The following Conferences I will just mention who I pick.

Big Sky: Montana

MAAC: Quinnipiac

Ohio Valley: Belmont

Southern: NC Greensboro

Summit: South Dakota State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

NHL

Toronto vs. Calgary, 03/04/2019 21:00 EDT

Total: +113/+6½ Under

Sportsbook:
Betonline

Two top tier teams the Leafs and the Flames go head to head here in a game that I have pegged to stay under the slightly bloated Total. Both teams offensive numbers warrant this high a Totals number based on statistical data alone, but at this time of year as the play offs approach, physical defensive hockey is the norm amongst team headed to the post season. Calgary took out Toronto 3-1 the last time these teams played back in October of this season and a even more stringent type of hockey I'm betting is on tonights agenda.

TORONTO is 5-0 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season.

TORONTO is 9-3 UNDER in road games revenging a loss versus opponent as a favorite this season.

NHL team against the total (TORONTO) - after 5 or more consecutive overs, poor defensive team - allowing 2.85+ goals/game on the season - 2nd half of the season are 177-122 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 59% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER