Monday 3-18-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 4

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)


Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $23,500 • Post: 2:08P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. MAYA SOLOMEA is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAYA SOLOMEA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the high est average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ARAZI LIKE MOVE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2
MAYA SOLOMEA
5/2

9/5
7
ARAZI LIKE MOVE
8/5

7/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
MAYA SOLOMEA
2

5/2
Front-runner
73

69

82.4

68.6

62.6
6
KITCHI
6

6/1
Alternator/Stalker
67

61

66.8

66.6

60.1
1
DARK WOOD (IRE)
1

5/1
Trailer
69

69

52.1

58.7

48.7
3
KING OLLIE
3

10/1
Trailer
62

57

47.0

47.7

37.2
7
ARAZI LIKE MOVE
7

8/5
Alternator/Trailer
82

77

48.9

66.6

61.6
4
DEER CREEK ROAD
4

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
75

66

50.8

61.2

54.7
5
DIRTYDEEDSDUNCHEAP
5

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
70

65

46.1

62.5

52.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #7 - Post: 3:33pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 BEST DRESSED (ML=3/1)
#9 LET'ER EAT (ML=5/1)


BEST DRESSED - When this jockey and conditioner team up you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Buttigieg have been great together. I look for this horse to sit chilly and make a big move on the turn, cruising straight on to the finish line. This filly is rounding her way back into shape. Should race well today. LET'ER EAT - The fact that this filly is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. Look at this filly's PP lines. With each race she keeps getting closer. Short brings her back again. I recommend you stay with this strong filly. A repeat of that recent race on Mar 12th where she garnered a speed fig of 49 looks lofty enough to triumph in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DRAGONESS (ML=6/5), #7 TIZ MATTIE (ML=8/1),

DRAGONESS - Improbable that the speed figure she notched on Mar 9th will be good enough in this contest. TIZ MATTIE - The sixth place finish position in the last race was not the best.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 BEST DRESSED to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22000 Class Rating: 71

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 SMART RAGS 9/2

# 1A ROANIE 2/1

# 6 BACKSTRETCH GEORGE 3/1

SMART RAGS looks competitive to best this field. Looks competitive for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt route races recently. Lately Carmouche has been scorching which may give the edge to this gelding. Has very good speed figures and has to be considered for a bet for this race. ROANIE - Over time, this trainer has a decent ROI at this distance/surface. Looks to have a formidable class edge based on the latest company kept. BACKSTRETCH GEORGE - Is a sharp contender based on numbers recorded as of late under today's conditions. Keep this gelding in your exotics as Bracho has given backers some double digit dividends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 85

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 12, 2018 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FIVE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 OH NEWMAN 10/1

# 4 SUM CANDY 6/1

# 2 MARK YE WELL 8/1

My pick for this event is OH NEWMAN and is a formidable value-based wager given the 10/1 line. He has recorded formidable figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this field. This animal is in the upper half of this group of horses in earnings per start at the distance/surface. SUM CANDY - Ought to be given a shot based on the decent speed rating earned in the last contest. Recent numbers for the jock - 34 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group. MARK YE WELL - Boasts reliable Equibase speed figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Don't let this gelding slip past you. Could win at a big price.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SMART RAGS (ML=9/2)
#6 BACKSTRETCH GEORGE (ML=3/1)


SMART RAGS - This jockey and trainer have a fantastic winning percent when they work together. This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Carmouche gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Guerrero has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half. BACKSTRETCH GEORGE - Another way to judge class is earnings per start. This thoroughbred has the highest in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish line. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last speed figure, 71, is tops in this group. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (50-63-71) make this animal a solid contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TOMMY'S TOP CAT (ML=2/1), #1A ROANIE (ML=2/1), #5 CONTINGENT PAYMENT (ML=7/2),

TOMMY'S TOP CAT - Didn't land in the money on Feb 11th at Parx Racing. Followed it up with another less than stellar try. Finished fifth in his most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this bunch. ROANIE - This entrant hasn't been on the track since Jan 28th. Not even any morning drills. The fifth place result in the last race was not the greatest. The speed rating last race out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this horse as a vulnerable competitor. CONTINGENT PAYMENT - This racer didn't do too much last time finishing sixth. Don't see any hint of improvement today. Pace makes the race and an absence of speed means this rallier will have to rally without any help.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 SMART RAGS to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, March 18

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DETROIT (36 - 33) at CLEVELAND (17 - 53) - 3/18/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 37-59 ATS (-27.9 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
DETROIT is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 73-97 ATS (-33.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 33-53 ATS (-25.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 18-30 ATS (-15.0 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 38-56 ATS (-23.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 22-31 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 6-5 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-5 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (40 - 29) at WASHINGTON (30 - 40) - 3/18/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games this season.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games after allowing 115 points or more this season.
WASHINGTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
WASHINGTON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
UTAH is 32-22 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 59-45 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 70-84 ATS (-22.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-32 ATS (-15.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 4-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (46 - 22) at BOSTON (43 - 27) - 3/18/2019, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 93-72 ATS (+13.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 65-48 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 137-178 ATS (-58.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (14 - 56) at TORONTO (49 - 21) - 3/18/2019, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 68-82 ATS (-22.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 18-31 ATS (-16.1 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 21-33 ATS (-15.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
TORONTO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 240-188 ATS (+33.2 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
TORONTO is 22-32 ATS (-13.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
TORONTO is 151-190 ATS (-58.0 Units) in March games since 1996.
TORONTO is 22-31 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 7-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 9-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (33 - 36) at OKLAHOMA CITY (42 - 28) - 3/18/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
MIAMI is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 84-59 ATS (+19.1 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 52-69 ATS (-23.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (47 - 21) at SAN ANTONIO (41 - 29) - 3/18/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 28-39 ATS (-14.9 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-34 ATS (-12.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-57 ATS (-20.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 39-30 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 200-150 ATS (+35.0 Units) in March games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 25-5 ATS (+19.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 195-145 ATS (+35.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 30-19 ATS (+9.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 80-53 ATS (+21.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 10-8 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (30 - 42) at DALLAS (28 - 41) - 3/18/2019, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.
DALLAS is 39-29 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games this season.
DALLAS is 258-210 ATS (+27.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
DALLAS is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
DALLAS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
DALLAS is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 48-34 ATS (+10.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-5 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 7-4 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (19 - 52) at PHOENIX (17 - 54) - 3/18/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 21-31 ATS (-13.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CHICAGO is 22-31 ATS (-12.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after allowing 130 points or more since 1996.
PHOENIX is 32-46 ATS (-18.6 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 30-44 ATS (-18.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 22-36 ATS (-17.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 3-2 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 3-2 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANA (44 - 26) at PORTLAND (42 - 27) - 3/18/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 39-30 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 25-15 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 44-29 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in non-conference games this season.
PORTLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PORTLAND is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 87-70 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 59-44 ATS (+10.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-1 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

71Arizona -72 Tampa Bay
TAMPA BAY is 52-15 ATS (28.1 Units) against mistake free teams - opponents average <=4 power plays/game in the current season.

73Vancouver -74 Chicago
CHICAGO is 13-5 ATS (10.8 Units) against poor defensive teams - >=29 shots on goal, convert >=17% pp in the 2nd half of the year in the current season.

75Winnipeg -76 Los Angeles
LOS ANGELES are 28-36 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games second half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

77Vegas -78 San Jose
GERARD GALLANT is 17-3 ATS (13.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite (Coach of VEGAS)

77Vegas -78 San Jose
VEGAS are 17-3 ATS (13.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Monday, March 18

Trend Report

Arizona Coyotes
Arizona is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Arizona is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Arizona is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Arizona is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing Arizona
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games when playing at home against Arizona

Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Vancouver is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vancouver's last 7 games
Vancouver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Vancouver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vancouver's last 6 games on the road
Vancouver is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Vancouver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Vancouver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 20 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Vancouver
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Vancouver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Vancouver

Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Winnipeg's last 11 games on the road
Winnipeg is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Winnipeg is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Los Angeles is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Los Angeles's last 23 games
Los Angeles is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games at home
Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Los Angeles is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Winnipeg

Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games
Vegas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas's last 6 games
Vegas is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Vegas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Vegas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
Vegas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Jose
Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Jose
San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Jose's last 5 games
San Jose is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
San Jose is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home
San Jose is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Vegas
San Jose is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vegas
San Jose is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Vegas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Monday, March 18

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ARIZONA (36-30-0-6, 78 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (55-13-0-4, 114 pts.) - 3/18/2019, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 55-17 ATS (+83.0 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 33-11 ATS (+11.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
ARIZONA is 36-36 ATS (+78.0 Units) in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 19-14 ATS (+35.7 Units) second half of the season this season.
ARIZONA is 18-18 ATS (+43.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 (+6.0 Units) against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.8 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VANCOUVER (30-32-0-10, 70 pts.) at CHICAGO (32-30-0-9, 73 pts.) - 3/18/2019, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VANCOUVER is 393-380 ATS (-123.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 17-13 ATS (+3.8 Units) second half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 23-10 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 372-373 ATS (-97.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
CHICAGO is 162-183 ATS (-99.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANCOUVER is 5-3 (+4.1 Units) against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
VANCOUVER is 5-3-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+8.1 Units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (42-25-0-4, 88 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (25-38-0-8, 58 pts.) - 3/18/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 4-8 ATS (-9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
WINNIPEG is 103-68 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 25-46 ATS (-53.4 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 16-23 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 210-265 ATS (-103.0 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 6-23 ATS (+34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 1-12 ATS (+20.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 4-4 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 4-4-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+2.6 Units)

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VEGAS (40-27-0-5, 85 pts.) at SAN JOSE (43-21-0-8, 94 pts.) - 3/18/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VEGAS is 10-15 ATS (-11.7 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game this season.
SAN JOSE is 42-19 ATS (+13.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 105-70 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 44-19 ATS (+16.3 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 41-21 ATS (+11.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
VEGAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a home loss versus opponent this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VEGAS is 8-4 (+3.3 Units) against the spread versus SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
VEGAS is 8-4-0 straight up against SAN JOSE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Mar 18 '19, 1:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Red Sox vs Twins
Play on: Twins -119 at pinnacle

1* Free Pick on Twins -119

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tonys *5 NBA Free Play

Golden State vs. San Antonio, 03/18/2019 20:00 EDT

Total: -110/+224 Over

Sportsbook:
Betonline

Fp: dubs look like they are back in championship fourm after back to back road wins over the roclets and thumder and the spurs playinggreat winners of 8 in a row ! I expect buckets early and often making the over my nba free play !

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Monday, March 18


Indiana @ Portland

Game 549-550
March 18, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
112.235
Portland
118.168
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 6
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 4
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-4); Under

Chicago @ Phoenix

Game 547-548
March 18, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
112.042
Phoenix
111.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Phoenix
by 2 1/2
227
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+2 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ Dallas

Game 545-546
March 18, 2019 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
112.633
Dallas
111.488
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 1
213
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 4 1/2
231
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+4 1/2); Under

Golden State @ San Antonio

Game 543-544
March 18, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
125.593
San Antonio
118.170
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 7 1/2
215
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 2 1/2
223 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-2 1/2); Under

Miami @ Oklahoma City

Game 541-542
March 18, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
115.135
Oklahoma City
122.329
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma City
by 7
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma City
by 4 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oklahoma City
(-4 1/2); Under

New York @ Toronto

Game 539-540
March 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
108.550
Toronto
119.663
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 9
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 12
213
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+12); Under

Denver @ Boston

Game 537-538
March 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
120.259
Boston
119.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 4
221
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+4); Over

Utah @ Washington

Game 535-536
March 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
124.076
Washington
116.845
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 7
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 5
228
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-5); Over

Detroit @ Cleveland

Game 533-534
March 18, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
114.907
Cleveland
105.075
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 10
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-6 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Monday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Game of the Night - Golden State (-3, 224) at San Antonio, 8:05 ET, ESPN

Considering how poorly the Rodeo road trip went – the Spurs went 1-7 in their worst showing on what is annually their longest trek – Gregg Popovich and his team were written off for the 642,574th time over the past decade. This time, it figured to stick.

Kawhi Leonard is in Toronto with Danny Green. Tony Parker is producing in Charlotte. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili have retired.

San Antonio looked done after getting swept by the Knicks and Nets by double-digits three weeks ago. It had dropped its first three games coming out of the All-Star break and were overwhelmed in New York as a 9-point favorite and 1.5-point underdog. Even on the second night of a back-to-back, catching points in Brooklyn isn’t something typically associated with Western Conference powers. The Spurs were officially done.

So, naturally, they got back home after losing to the Nets and beat the Pistons. San Antonio then took out the Thunder and Nuggets. It hasn’t lost since that Feb. 25 setback in Brooklyn. The Spurs put an eight-game winning streak, currently the longest in the NBA, on the line against Golden State. You’re not going to read that this is a potential conference finals preview. In that sense, Pop’s team continues to be overlooked as a true contender, but it’s hard to dismiss what we’ve seen from them in making it to this point in March as the only team not to taste a loss this month.

The Spurs have defeated the Bucks and Trail Blazers at home on this run in addition to getting revenge on the Knicks, so they’ve actually won 10 straight at AT&T Center. San Antonio’s last loss in its building came on Jan. 20 against the Clippers. The Spurs are 8-1 at home as a pick’em or underdog this season, winning seven straight games in that role. That’s important to know because the Warriors are going to be favored here, getting forward Kevin Durant back from a two-game absence after spraining an ankle. Golden State went out and beat the Rockets and Thunder, arguably the top threats to their Western Conference supremacy, on the road without him.

Improved defense has been the reason both of these teams have persevered of late. San Antonio has led the NBA in scoring defense during its eight-game surge, giving up 99.8 points per 100 possessions. Golden State clamped down and held the Rockets to 104 points, Houston’s second-lowest output since February began, before visiting Oklahoma City on Saturday night and surrendering just 88 points, the fewest the Thunder have managed since Feb. 8, 2018.

After losing at home to the Suns as a 17-point favorite in a game memorable due to cameras catching Steve Kerr commenting on how tired he is of Draymond Green’s schtick -- or something like that – Golden State has turned things around, killing the narrative that it might indeed be vulnerable. That they’ve done it with Durant watching is even more impressive, since he was not the issue with their inconsistency. The Warriors are just fine, and when they want to defend, they’re virtually unbeatable.

The Spurs have been solid with first-year starting point guard Derrick White in the mix since he’s turned into a standout defender, filling the role that Dejounte Murray was supposed to play before he tore his ACL in the preseason. White missed all but two games on the Spurs’ ill-fated roadie with a heel injury but has since returned to play every game on their current run, averaging 13 points and nearly six assists while shooting over 52 percent from the field and close to 37 percent from 3-point range. Popovich has made no secret of his importance and anyone who watches the Spurs regularly can attest to the impact he has on the team with his pace and defense.

He’s played just 18 minutes off the bench against Golden State this season, participating in the 104-92 home win back on Nov. 18 that featured neither Stephen Curry, Green or DeMarcus Cousins, so we’ll really only be able to gage his impact in helping defend Curry and Klay Thompson tonight. White’s foot issues kept him out against the Warriors in the lone meeting in Oakland, a 141-102 loss on Feb. 6 you can flush down the toilet since LaMarcus Aldridge, DeMar DeRozan and White all sat out.

It’s still possible that this winds up being the 1-8 matchup in the West, so it will be interesting to see how Popovich attacks this game, particularly since his team is playing their best basketball of the season and Durant is returning to make the Warriors whole. San Antonio is 12 games over .500 for the first time this season and showcased its depth as seven players scored in double-figures in Saturday’s night win over Portland. Despite Denver carrying a three-game winning streak into tonight’s visit to Boston, Golden State owns a one-game lead in the conference. The Spurs are currently sixth, a half-game up on the Jazz and Clippers and just 1.5 games behind the Blazers for fourth. They trail the Rockets in the Southwest Division by just three games with 12 to go and will visit Houston on Friday night, making this a massive week.

We’ll see if they can take advantage of Durant potentially needing to knock off a little rust in order to pull off another surprise here, but it’s surely getting expensive to continue fading the Spurs if that’s what you’ve been doing since the Rodeo road trip. San Antonio has covered in seven of eight. The ‘under’ has prevailed in eight of nine involving the Spurs and nine of 10 games featuring Golden State, including each of the last seven.

Best of the Rest

Utah at Washington, 7:05 p.m. ET: The Wizards are running out of time to salvage what has thus far been an ill-fated season, coming into the week 3.5 games behind Miami for the Southeast Division lead and the East's final playoff berth. Bradley Beal has been on a tear and has scored 40 points in consecutive games, shooting 16-for-25 from 3-point range, so the Wizards can hop on his back again to try and take down a Jazz team opening a four-game Eastern road swing that will also see them visit the Knicks, Hawks and Bulls. Utah is looking to surge into the West's top four by taking care of business on a trip in which they'll be favored in every game.

Denver at Boston, 7:35 p.m. ET: Nikola Jokic got thrown out of the Nuggets' 102-100 Saturday night win over the Pacers and has now been tossed by Tony Brothers all three times he's been ejected from an NBA game. Fortunately for Jokic, Brothers won't be on this game as Denver opens a four-game road trip against the Celtics. Denver will play six of its next seven away from home against a very challenging schedule that features only one non-playoff team, so we'll see what its made of over the next few weeks as it looks to hold on to the Northwest Division lead it has enjoyed for months. Al Horford is expected to play through knee soreness for Boston, but Gordon Hayward is considered doubtful with a neck issue.

Miami at Oklahoma City, 8:05 p.m. ET: The Heat locked in defensively and held Charlotte to just 75 points on Sunday afternoon, marking the second time in three games that they've held an opponent in the 70s. It was even more impressive that they held it down without Justise Winslow, who is dealing with a thigh injury that may keep him out again here. Miami catches a huge break not having to deal with Russell Westbrook, who is suspended for amassing 16 technical fouls this season after picking up the penalty-clinching T in Saturday's loss to the Warriors. The Heat are plenty familiar with Paul George and Dennis Schroder, whose roles as catalysts will now be heightened in Westbrook's absence.

Indiana at Portland, 10:35 p.m. ET: The Blazers got encouraging news regarding CJ McCollum's knee injury suffered late Saturday night since it's not expected to be season-ending, but they'll need to make due without him and will be relying on Rodney Hood to help fill in. The Pacers know all about replacing a standout shooting guard since Victor Oladipo is rehabbing away from the team in South Florida after his own knee injury. Wes Matthews has done a nice job filling in defensively but is nowhere near the same type of threat on the offensive end, requiring Bojan Bogdanovic to be more aggressive in looking to score. The Pacers opened a tough four-game road trip with a 102-100 loss in Denver and are just one game up on the Celtics for the No. 4 spot in the East in what's looking increasingly likely to be a first-round matchup come postseason.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hoop Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Wizards are 12-0 ATS (+11.62 ppg) at home with rest off a win as a favorite in which they trailed by double-digits.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Warriors are 0-11 ATS (-13.95 ppg) on the road with rest after a game as a road dog in which their opponent shot under 40% from the field.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day:

-- The Warriors are 13-0 OU (+14.65 ppg) after a game in which their opponent shot under 35% from the field.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day:

-- The Raptors are 0-13 OU (-13.12 ppg) as a home 8+ favorite off a loss in which they rebounded less than 20% of their own misses.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Early bettors leap on Oregon odds vs. Wisconsin in NCAA Tournament
Patrick Everson

All the lines are up for the NCAA Tournament’s First Four, and more important for the 28 matchups set among the 32 games of March Madness scheduled for Thursday and Friday. We delve into the opening lines and early action for two games in each region deemed the most intriguing by the oddsmaking team at The SuperBook at Westgate.

SOUTH REGION

No. 12 Oregon vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-1.5)

Oregon is on an 8-0 SU and ATS streak, including a four-wins-in-four-days run as the No. 6 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. The Ducks (23-12 SU, 20-15 ATS) capped that run with a 68-48 blasting of No. 1 seed Washington as 2-point favorites in Saturday’s final.

Wisconsin won four of its last five regular-season games to finish fourth in the Big Ten. The Badgers (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) then edged Nebraska in the conference tourney quarterfinals before falling to No. 1 seed Michigan State 67-55 as 5.5-point underdogs in Saturday’s semis.

“This opened at Wisconsin -1.5, and it’s already at Oregon -1,” SuperBook supervisor Derek Wilkinson told Covers late Sunday evening. “We debated on who to favor in this game, just because we weren’t sure which way the public would sway. We’ve already taken some sharp action on Oregon and the line has moved pretty dramatically. I think it’ll get up to around Oregon -2 or -2.5 by game day.”

That would be Friday, in a 4:30 p.m. ET tipoff.

No. 14 Old Dominion Monarchs vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers (-12)

Purdue earned the No. 2 seed and a double-bye in the Big Ten tournament, but made it no further than that. The Boilermakers (23-9 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) tumbled to No. 7 seed Minnesota 75-73 laying 9.5 points in Friday’s quarterfinals.

Old Dominion lived up to its No. 1 seed and won the Conference USA tournament. The Monarchs (26-8 SU, 15-19 ATS) beat Western Kentucky 62-56 as 2.5-point underdogs in Saturday’s final.

“The market has moved this line up to -12.5, but I’m not sold on it,” Wilkinson said. “I think we’re going to get some late sharp money on Old Dominion once that line moves a little higher. Old Dominion has impressed me this season, and I think 12 is too many points for the Monarchs to get.”

Late Sunday night, the number dipped back to the opener of Purdue -12 in a 9:50 p.m. ET Thursday game.

EAST REGION

No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (-4.5)

Louisville struggled late in the regular season in the rugged Atlantic Coast Conference, losing seven of its last 10 games (4-6 ATS). The Cardinals (20-13 SU, 17-14-2 ATS) righted the ship a bit in the ACC tournament, routing Notre Dame 75-53 as 8-point favorites before losing to North Carolina 83-70 as 7-point underdogs in Thursday’s quarterfinals.

Minnesota pulled two upsets, one mild and one bigger, in the Big Ten tournament to help secure an NCAA bid. The Golden Gophers (21-13 SU, 17-17 ATS) topped Penn State 77-72 in overtime as 3-point pups, then knocked out Purdue 75-73 as 9.5-point ‘dogs. Minnesota then ran out of steam as 9.5-point underdogs to Michigan, losing 76-49 in Saturday’s semifinals.

“A lot of Minnesota haters in this back room,” Wilkinson said of the gang of four – led by sportsbook manager Ed Salmons – who set the opening lines at The SuperBook. “The sharp money is on Louisville for sure. We’ve already taken some limit bets on the Cardinals, from both wiseguys and house players. I’m anticipating this line to go up over the next couple of days.”

Shortly after opening at Louisville -4.5, The SuperBook moved to -5 for this 12:15 p.m. ET Thursday meeting.

No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Louisiana State Tigers (-8)

Louisiana State won the Southeastern Conference’s regular-season title, but bowed out in its first game of the conference tourney. The Tigers (26-6 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) lost to Florida 76-73 as 3.5-point favorites in Friday’s quarterfinals.

Yale finished second in the Ivy League’s regular-season standings, but was first when it counted. The Bulldogs (22-7 SU, 16-12 ATS) won both games in the league tourney, including a 97-85 victory laying 4 points against No. 1 seed Harvard in Sunday’s final to nab the automatic NCAA bid.

LSU opened -8 at The SuperBook, but Yale money knocked the number down a tick to 7.5 for a 12:40 p.m. ET Thursday contest.

“We’ve seen some smaller, sharp bets on Yale,” Wilkinson said. “No big bets yet, but I think this line is going to drop some more. I wouldn’t be surprised if Yale wins outright. The public will be on LSU, just because it’s a big name, but the smart money is on Yale in this one.”

MIDWEST REGION

No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones (-6)

Iowa State entered the Big 12 tournament as the No. 5 seed and exited with the championship trophy, winning three games in three nights. In Saturday’s final, the Cyclones (23-11 SU, 18-14-2 ATS) breezed by Kansas 78-66 as 1.5-point favorites.

Ohio State ended the Big Ten regular season with a thud, losing three in a row and six of its last eight. The Buckeyes (19-14 SU, 14-19 ATS) bounced back with a 79-75 win over Indiana as 2-point faves to open the conference tournament, then lost to Michigan State 77-70 catching 10.5 points in the quarterfinals.

“We’ve taken some house money on Iowa State, but I’m looking for the upset in this one,” Wilkinson said, while noting the line remains on the opener of Cyclones -6. “I think we’ll get some sharp money on Ohio State soon, and that line will come down some.”

Game time is 9:50 p.m. ET Friday.

No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 5 Auburn Tigers (-7.5)

Just like Oregon in the Pac-12, Auburn made a four-wins-in-four-days run through the SEC tournament, from the No. 5 spot. The Tigers (26-9 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) finished with an 84-64 pounding of No. 3 seed Tennessee as 2.5-point pups Sunday and have now won eight straight.

New Mexico State lost on Jan. 3 and hasn’t tasted defeat since, going 19-0 SU (9-9 ATS). The Aggies won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season crown and rolled through the tournament, capped by an 89-57 boatracing of Grand Canyon as 4-point favorites Saturday.

“We’ve taken a few smaller sharp plays on New Mexico State, and the line has dropped a little,” Wilkinson said of a shift from Auburn -7.5 to -7. “I think the public action will be pretty evenly split on these two, but the sharps will like New Mexico State. Personally, I like Auburn, but then again, my Twitter handle is @derek2square for a reason.”

Tip time is 1:30 p.m. ET Thursday.

WEST REGION

No. 10 Florida Gators vs. No. 7 Nevada Wolf Pack (-2.5)

Nevada got a lot of national chatter early in the season, but lost some luster after three setbacks in its last eight games as it failed to reach the Mountain West Conference final. The Wolf Pack (29-4 SU, 17-14-1 ATS) entered the MWC semis as 10.5-point favorites against San Diego State, but lost outright 65-56 Friday.

Florida made a charge from the No. 8 spot in the SEC tournament to get the attention of the NCAA selection committee. The Gators (19-15 SU, 16-18 ATS) rolled over Arkansas in the tourney opener, then stunned No. 1 LSU 76-73 as 3.5-point quarterfinal ‘dogs. Florida then gave Auburn a strong go before bowing out in the semis 65-62 getting 3.5 points.

“We’ve already taken some sharp action on Florida,” Wilkinson said. “The line hasn’t moved, just because we know we always get a lot of local money on Nevada. Personally, I think the Gators are going to win this game, and I imagine that line will drop a little, despite getting public money on Nevada.”

Later Sunday evening, the line indeed ticked down to Nevada -2 for a 6:50 p.m. ET start Thursday.

No. 15 Montana Grizzlies vs. No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)

Michigan was the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament and fell short in the title game, but still nabbed a No. 2 seed in the West. The Wolverines (28-6 SU, 19-15 ATS) opened the conference tourney with two blowout wins, but blew a double-digit second half lead to Michigan State in Sunday’s final, losing 65-60 as 1.5 point favorites.

Montana won the Big Sky Conference regular-season and tournament titles. The Grizzlies (26-8 SU, 14-18 ATS) beat Eastern Washington 68-62 laying 5.5 points in Saturday’s final.

“Although I’m confident Michigan is going to win, 16 is a lot of points,” Wilkinson said. “We took a sharp bet on Montana earlier, but I think that’s just because the spread is so high. I’d look for this line to drop a little more and maybe settle around 14 or 14.5.”

Two hours after the move to Michigan -16, the line dipped back to the opener of 15.5 for a 9:20 p.m. ET Thursday tipoff.

Following are the opening and current lines for the Tuesday-Wednesday First Four round and the rest of the Thursday-Friday first-round games:

FIRST FOUR

Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Prairie View A&M – Open: Pick; Move: +1; Move: +1.5
Belmont vs. Temple – Open: +3.5; Move: None
Arizona State vs. St. John’s – Open: +1; Move: None
North Carolina Central vs. North Dakota State – Open: -5.5; Move: None

FIRST ROUND

St. Mary’s vs. Villanova – Open: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5
Murray State vs. Marquette – Open: -4; Move: -4.5
Vermont vs. Florida State – Open: -11; Move: -10.5; Move: -11; Move: -10.5
Seton Hall vs. Wofford – Open: -3; Move: None
Abilene Christian vs. Kentucky – Open: -22; Move: -22.5; Move: -22; Move: -21.5; Move: -22
Bradley vs. Michigan State – Open: -19.5; Move: -19; Move: -18.5; Move: -18
Northeastern vs. Kansas – Open: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -8.5; Move: -8
Baylor vs. Syracuse – Open: -2; Move: None
Central Florida vs. Virginia Commonwealth – Open: -1; Move: -1.5
Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia – Open: -24; Move: -23.5
Oklahoma vs. Mississippi – Open: -2; Move: None
Iowa vs. Cincinnati – Open: -4; Move: -3.5
Colgate vs. Tennessee – Open: -17.5; Move: None
Iona vs. North Carolina – Open: -25; Move: -24
Washington vs. Utah State – Open: -3; Move: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -2.5
Georgia State vs. Houston – Open: -12; Move: None
Northern Kentucky vs. Texas Tech – Open: -15; Move: -14.5; Move: -14
Liberty vs. Mississippi State – Open: -7.5; Move: -7
St. Louis vs. Virginia Tech – Open: -10.5; Move: -10; Move: -9.5
California-Irvine vs. Kansas State – Open: -5.5; Move: None