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When you look at this match up the knee jerk reaction is to jump on Cincinnati as Iowa finished the season on 1-5 SU run. Cincinnati on the other hand comes in here off 3 straight wins and is 8-2 SU the last 10 which included winning their Conference Tournament. Cincinnati was able to turn the table on highly ranked Houston who had beat them soundly in both regular season meetings to win the Tournament. Because of that big win the market has over adjusted to Cincinnati making them a 4 point favorite here. The American Conference was good this year but it still isn’t the Big 10 Conference who was very strong this year. Iowa played the 27th toughest schedule in the country while Cincinnati played the 73rd toughest. You also have to wonder how much did winning the Conference Tournament take out of Cincinnati. We saw Auburn in a similar spot yesterday just get by New Mexico St. winning but not covering. Michigan St who battled Michigan for a 3rd time in winning the Big 10 Tournament came back yesterday and struggled for most of the game before pulling away late for the win and no cover. It also must be noted that even though Cincinnati is winning they haven’t been covering the spread as they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. The main reason for this is they are struggling offensively as in their last 7 games they have shot 39% or less in 5 of the 7 games. I just can’t lay points with a team shooting like that. My numbers have Iowa Winning by 3-5 points.
NCAA Basketball(Bob Balfe)
9:40 PM EST
Rotation #799-800 UCF PK over VCU This isn’t a huge upset with the #9 seed, but I don’t think we are going to see them this year. I think all the 1-4 teams are safe. If St. Louis could shoot the ball maybe they would have a shot against VTech. UCF made great improvements this year. Last year most of their guys got injured, but finally they put it all together. I am not 100 percent on the health of Marcus Evans. I saw his injury live and I just can’t believe he is playing today. This is a team that is lost without him. The NCAA Tournament is all about great guard play. Evans is the main man at dishing the ball out. Evans is not 100% so I believe that hurts this team today. UCF is a huge team that is hard to shoot over. I give the edge to the Knights in just about every category. The Atlantic 10 Conference was pretty weak this year and I don’t believe VCU is as good as some of the teams they have fielded in the past. Take UCF
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