Saturday 3-23-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sam Houston Race Park

Sam Houston Race Park - Race 1

WPS / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 1-2) Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)


Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 41 • Purse: $6,500 • Post: 7:18P
(PLUS UP TO $975 ATB) FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. IRISH MISSILE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * IRISH MISSILE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Po wer Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HI HEAT BOY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth st art after a layoff. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4
IRISH MISSILE
7/2

9/5
6
HI HEAT BOY
3/1

6/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
3
RED BIRD'S LIAISON
3

5/2
Front-runner
0

0

30.3

23.7

11.7
5
TEJAS CHROME
5

12/1
Front-runner
0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0
4
IRISH MISSILE
4

7/2
Alternator/Front-runner
54

34

41.6

38.2

34.2
7
ITSASCRIMSHAWNOW
7

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
0

0

28.8

33.6

26.6
6
HI HEAT BOY
6

3/1
Alternator/Trailer
58

45

27.0

31.8

28.3
2
K ONE CHEROKEE
2

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
62

41

37.0

26.2

21.2
1
HEISMAN DREAMS
1

6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

20.2

22.1

13.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 1

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double


Claiming $10,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $18,500 • Post: 12:15
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Stalker. WHAT'S ON TAP is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ESKENDULCE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ABRAHAM: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANOTHER SOURCE: Hors e has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4
ESKENDULCE
2/1

4/1
6
ABRAHAM
5/2

5/1
5
ANOTHER SOURCE
8/5

6/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
6
ABRAHAM
6

5/2
Front-runner
99

89

85.2

80.2

76.7
5
ANOTHER SOURCE
5

8/5
Front-runner
94

93

71.6

82.8

76.8
3
WHAT'S ON TAP
3

15/1
Stalker
86

77

91.5

78.2

68.7
4
ESKENDULCE
4

2/1
Trailer
96

98

80.4

91.2

88.7
2
SPLASH WITH ME
2

10/1
Trailer
88

80

61.4

82.4

72.4
1
DANCE NIGHT
1

8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88

80

42.0

73.8

64.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #3 - Post: 2:40pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR (ML=9/2)
#1 JUDGE STANTON (ML=3/1)
#5 BAD GUY (ML=8/1)


GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Last time this gelding ran today's distance he got a fig that would probably win today's event. You probably want to discount that last event at Aqueduct in the mud where he finished out of the money. Should do well right here without the slop. JUDGE STANTON - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than in the last race at Aqueduct. Dutrow brings him right back. I propose you stick with this hot colt. With 'blinkers-on' this colt should be very competitive. BAD GUY - Taking this jockey/trainer combination is a good move. Maymo brings him right back. I propose you stick with this hot gelding. This gelding looks like a natural router, based on efforts in last 2 sprint races. Dropped down in class in the last race, and keeps in that lower level right here. A good sign this animal is comfortable and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 INVEST (ML=5/2), #7 TURBULENCE (ML=5/1), #6 LORCAN (ML=6/1),

INVEST - Granted the last race was strong, finishing second. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though. Not likely that the speed rating he garnered on March 1st will be enough in this clash. TURBULENCE - The extended vacation will probably bring problems for this racer. Didn't show much run last time. Probably won't make a winning move in today's event. LORCAN - Finished fifth last time out. Would have to move up to be in the money today. Will be tough for this animal to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #4 GIVETHEMAN A CIGAR to win if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
4 with [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4200 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $2,500 OR LESS IN 2018 - 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 RUNAROUNDDANCING 2/1

# 3 LONESOME HIGHWAY 9/2

# 2 SILVER PLANET 5/2

RUNAROUNDDANCING looks to be a respectable contender. Shows signs of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 76 speed fig which is one of the most competitive in this group. This gelding has a very good win percentage in dirt sprint races. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 86 - of his last race. LONESOME HIGHWAY - Shows formidable speed figs on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group. Has been running admirably lately and ought to be close to the front end early on. SILVER PLANET - Has been racing admirably in races of this distance, going 14 out of 70 under similar conditions. Pusac's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this racer a sharp contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

03/23/19, TAM, Race 10, 5.14 ET
5 1/2F [Dirt] 1.02.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $14,200.
Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD
Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) / Super High 5
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 353, Win Percent 29.75, $1 ROI 0.76, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to TAM.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 2 Don't Spin Me 9/2 Gallardo A A Thomas Monte R. J
099.9412 4 Captured Beauty 8-1 Cotto. Jr. P L Lucas Megan SFW 2.50 1.03 34.78 16 46
099.7362 5 Smokin Princess 3-1 Santos A Bennett Gerald S. T
096.5366 12 Red Kitten 12-1 Morales P Arboritanza Joseph E 2.60 1.06 34.78 8 23
096.0181 3 Tizaawesomeday 8-1 Martinez W Tomlinson Michael A.
095.8675 7 Won Lil Indian 8-1 Butler D P Tomlinson Michael A.
095.4030 9 Feets of Feather 6-1 Spieth S Cheeks Joseph
094.8247 6 My Cotton Candy 15-1 Urdaneta J J Ochoa Gerard
094.4669 11 Mz. Foo Do 20-1 Jimenez M Mazza Joseph W. L 15.60 1.09 37.78 34 90
094.0143 8 J's Threestep Halo 10-1 Allen. Jr. R D Bowersock Maria
093.3883 1 Wiwi Celebration 15-1 Wales G Creel Rick
091.7996 10 War Star 12-1 Camacho S Deaton William E. 2.60 1.06 34.78 8 23
P# 4 Horse Best Speed and Workouts
P# 12 Horse Post GT 9
P# 11 Last Race Weight LT Today
P# 10 Horse Post GT 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #8 - Post: 9:28pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,800 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 FLASHINTHEPANTS (ML=8/1)
#6 MISSION GOOD KARMA (ML=3/1)
#7 NANO LINK (ML=5/1)


FLASHINTHEPANTS - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this racer is meeting an easier bunch than last time around the track at Penn National. This mare has 'tactical' speed, Whitney will use this advantage by laying in stalking position behind the early pace, and getting first run on the leaders. This horse ran off the board at Penn National last out on a track listed as good. She should improve in this race on a fast track. MISSION GOOD KARMA - The jockey/handler duet of Corujo and Fields has a strong return on investment together. Last time around the track was at Penn National in a race with a class figure of 70. Dropping drastically in class figure this time puts her in a solid position right here. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this mare's PPs. Almost always in the money. This mare's last speed rating is high enough to score here, I'll wager on her right back in today's event. NANO LINK - The return on investment when Otero and Johnston get together is tremendous. This filly is in first-rate form right now. Finished first last race out and comes back quickly. Trainer, Johnston, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 NUREYEVS BALLERINA (ML=7/2), #5 SWEET TWEET (ML=4/1), #2 HOOF HOOF AWAY (ML=6/1),

NUREYEVS BALLERINA - Form is somewhat in question after the addition of front bandages in the Mar 8th affair. Most unsatisfactory speed rating in the last race at Penn National at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much today. SWEET TWEET - Can't wager on this less than sharp equine in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance race recently. HOOF HOOF AWAY - A pattern of decreasing speed figures 55/48/44 for this mount.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MISSION GOOD KARMA - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top thoroughbred in earnings per start. This race horse looks good to me so I'm making a wager on her.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 FLASHINTHEPANTS is the play if we get odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [1,2,3,6,7] with [1,2,3,6,7] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 74

FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 23 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 23 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $10,000 1 LB.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 GABY'S CROWN 4/1

# 2 AMI MANERA 2/1

# 5 PAPABRYAN 3/1

My pick in this event is GABY'S CROWN. Could best this group based on the speed fig - 60 - of his last affair. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 64. Jockey's recent return on investment figures make this gelding a very good bet. AMI MANERA - Has respectable front-end speed and should fare quite well versus this field. The speed rating of 77 from his most recent race looks respectable in here. PAPABRYAN - Has formidable early pace and will probably fare quite well versus this group. Should be considered - I like the numbers from the last contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

03/23/19, OP, Race 6, 3.39 CT
6F [Dirt] 1.07.04 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000.
Claiming Price $10,000. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 23, 2018
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta - 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 6-10)
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 555, Win Percent 24.68, $1 ROI 0.78, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to OP.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 7 Stephen's Answer 9/2 Vazquez R A Villafranco Federico J 24.00 1.09 29.92 38 127
098.9713 12 Super Touch 3-1 De La Cruz F Cox Brad H.
097.1680 5 Mr. Benz 6-1 Cohen D Broberg Karl T 3.20 1.08 20.00 4 20
096.9663 13 Istillgotit 12-1 De La Cruz W Puhl Kim A.
096.8346 1 One Son of a Chief 5-1 Court J K Smith Kenny P. FC .20 1.01 50.00 4 8
096.8118 6 Preacher Time 20-1 Elliott S Hartman Chris A. W 3.20 1.08 20.00 4 20
096.7062 11 Forze Mau (VEN) 6-1 Santana. Jr. R Asmussen Steven M. 3.20 1.08 20.00 4 20
095.9160 14 Minefield 10-1 Fuentes L A Morse Randy L. S 16.80 2.20 57.14 4 7
094.7652 8 Bad Humor 12-1 McMahon C Caldwell J. R. L
094.6751 4 Colonel Pike 12-1 Baze T Sims Philip A. E .20 1.01 50.00 4 8
094.6323 2 Mias Moonbeam 20-1 Johnson J M Hartlage Gary G. .20 1.01 50.00 4 8
093.9255 3 Wildcat Shoals 20-1 Loveberry J Chleborad Lynn .20 1.01 50.00 4 8
093.6563 10 Boalt Hall 12-1 Mojica O Diodoro Robertino
092.1040 9 Tashreeh 20-1 Richard R Goodsell Allen
P# 7 Horse Best Jockey
P# 5 Last Race Clm by Trainer With Better WPC
P# 1 Race Entries Not GT 5
P# 6 Last Race Clm by Trainer With Better WPC
P# 11 Last Race Clm by Trainer With Better WPC
P# 14 Horse Carries Appr Wgt
P# 4 Race Entries Not GT 5
P# 2 Race Entries Not GT 5
P# 3 Race Entries Not GT 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's biggest bets and line moves: Bettors back Murray State odds vs. Florida State

Murray State has won 12 in a row SU entering Saturday's NCAA Tournament tilt vs. Florida State. The Seminoles went from -4.5 to -5.5, but Racers money has since piled in, taking the line back to 4.5.

It’s on to the Round of 32 as March Madness rolls into the weekend, with eight games on the Saturday slate. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for a few matchups, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip.
No. 12 Murray State Racers vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles – Open: -4.5; Move: -5; Move: -5.5; Move: -5; Move: -4.5

The 12 vs. 5 upset happened three times in the first round, and Murray State was one of those victors. The Racers (28-4 SU, 20-10 ATS) thumped Marquette 83-74 as 3-point West Region underdogs Thursday, winning their 12th in a row SU and moving to 8-2 ATS in their last 10 outings.

Florida State is on a 13-1 SU roll (9-5 ATS) entering this 6:10 p.m. ET clash. The Seminoles (28-7 SU, 17-17-1 ATS) held off No. 13 seed Vermont 76-69 as 8.5-point favorites.

“That game was busy from the time we first hung it,” Shelton said of action at The Mirage and other MGM Resorts sportsbooks. “Sharps laid 4.5 with Florida State, we went to 5.5, and sharps took it back. Now, it’s all Murray State. Money is about 8/1 and ticket count is just over 2/1 on Murray State. And they’re playing Murray State moneyline, as well. That’s about 4/1 money on the Racers.”


No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: +1.5; Move: +2

Kansas bounced back nicely from a blowout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 title game. The Jayhawks (26-9 SU, 17-18 ATS) flattened Northeastern 87-53 laying 7 points in their Midwest Region opener.

Auburn won four games in four days to claim the Southeastern Conference tournament title, then just barely kept rolling in the Round of 64. The Tigers (27-9 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) got all they could handle from No. 12 seed New Mexico State, snaring a 78-77 victory as 5.5-point faves Thursday.

Although the line ticked up a half-point to Auburn -2, Kansas is drawing more cash.

“They’re playing the ‘dog in that game, too,” Shelton said of pointspread play in the last game of the day, a 9:40 p.m. ET tipoff. “Just over 2/1 money in favor of Kansas, and the ticket count is roughly 2/1 on Kansas, too. And on the moneyline, there’s three times as much money on Kansas.”


No. 6 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 3 Louisiana State Tigers – Open: -2.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5

Louisiana State made it to Saturday’s first tip, a 12:10 p.m. ET start in the East Region, by dodging what became a trendy upset pick in the first round. The Tigers (27-6 SU, 20-12-1 ATS) survived a dogfight with Yale in a 79-74 victory laying 5.5 points Thursday.

Likewise, Maryland got all it could handle from another team considered a sexy pick in the tournament. The Terrapins (23-10 SU, 16-16-1 ATS) outlasted No. 11 seed Belmont 79-77 giving 3.5 points Thursday.

“It’s pretty lopsided. They’re playing LSU right now,” Shelton said. “Money is 4/1 and ticket count is over 4/1 on LSU.”


No. 6 Villanova Wildcats vs. No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers – Open: -3.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5

Defending national champion Villanova isn’t quite that strong this year, but has won four in a row and six of seven. The Wildcats (26-9 SU, 21-14 ATS) got by No. 11 seed St. Mary’s 61-57 Thursday, narrowly cashing as 3.5-point favorites.

Purdue saw a 6-1 run halted in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but got back on track in the NCAA Tourney. The Boilermakers (24-9 SU, 18-14-1 ATS) beat No. 14 seed Old Dominion 61-48 and, like Villanova, barely covered the number as 12.5-point faves.

“They’re playing Villanova,” Shelton said of bettors' preference in an 8:40 p.m. ET South Region contest. “The ticket count is really close, but the money is pretty lopsided, 3/1 on Villanova.”


No. 9 Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs – Open: -12.5; Move: -13; Move: -13.5

Gonzaga stubbed its toe against St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference final, but had no issues regaining its footing for the Big Dance. The Bulldogs (31-3 SU, 22-12 ATS) did what No. 1 seeds should do in the first round, boatracing Fairleigh Dickinson 87-49 as massive 28.5-point favorites.

Baylor entered the NCAA Tournament on a four-game losing streak and was 0-5-1 ATS in its previous six games, but also found its form Thursday. The Bears (20-13 SU, 16-15-2 ATS) beat Syracuse 78-69 as 2.5-point pups to reach this 7:10 p.m. ET meeting in the West Region.

“They’re laying it with the Zags,” Shelton said of the 1-point uptick in the spread. “The public is all over Gonzaga.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's odds and best bets for South Region Round 2
Brandon DuBreuil

The South Region has just one Round of 32 game on Saturday as the sixth-seeded Villanova Wildcats take on the third-seeded Purdue Boilermakers. The back-to-back national champs have been inconsistent this season — will their 13-game winning streak at the tournament come to an end? We break down the odds and total while giving predictions and best bets.

(6) Villanova Wildcats vs (3) Purdue Boilermakers

Odds: Purdue -4, 137
Start time: 5:15 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA

Villanova just gets it done in the tournament. After an up-and-down season, the Wildcats grinded through a slow-paced game with Saint Mary’s for a 61-57 win. It was the 13th consecutive win for Nova at the NCAA Tournament and its 25th consecutive win on a neutral court.

It was the three ball that was the difference on Thursday as the Wildcats hit on 8-of-20 attempts despite facing a Gaels squad that ranked 55th in the nation in defending the three. The eight 3-pointers fell below its average of 10.5 as Villanova gets 42.7 percent of its points from the long ball, the ninth-highest rate in the nation.

Purdue got here by jumping out to a big early lead and then cruising to a 61-48 win over Old Dominion where star guard Carsen Edwards scored 26 points, though he still shot just 30.4 percent from the field and hasn’t cracked the 33.3 percent shooting mark in his last four as he plays through a sore back.

Purdue doesn’t apply the same pressure as Saint Mary’s on the 3-point line, ranked 154th in defending the three. What Purdue can do, however, is hit the three as it averages 9.7 per game, the most in the Big Ten, and it hit another nine on Thursday against the Monarchs.

Neither team plays overly fast here but both are remarkably efficient, with Purdue ranked fifth and Nova 16th in KenPom’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency metric. Expect the points to come early and often, with the majority coming via the three ball, and take the Over 137.

Looking at the sides, here we have a situation to get the back-to-back national champs at plus points. The Wildcats have been inconsistent this season and at times have looked terrible but they are still led by two seniors — Phil Booth and Eric Paschall — who have two national titles to their names. Nova has also been remarkable against the number in the tournament as it is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 March Madness games. Take the plus points and back the Wildcats.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's odds and best bets for East Region Round 2
Jason Logan

March Madness rolls on in the East Region with two Round of 32 tilts on the NCAA Tournament betting board. Jason Logan breaks down the odds and action with his best bets and predictions for Minnesota vs. Michigan State, and LSU vs. Maryland.

No. 6 MARYLAND TERRAPINS VS NO. 3 LSU TIGERS

Odds: LSU -2.5 145 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Start Time: 12:10 p.m. ET, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

The Tigers leaned on their size and athleticism to hold off Yale in the Round of 64, out-rebounding the smaller Bulldogs 42-33. Now, LSU takes on a Maryland team that stands taller than them, ranked 47th in height and 16th in total rebounds (39.2 per game).

Facing taller foes isn’t anything new to Louisiana State, which took on eight SEC opponents (12 games) that towered over them. However, the Tigers mustered on average just 76.6 points per game in regulation in those dozen matchups – a dip from their 81.3 scoring average on the season.

Louisiana State looks to attack the rim and draw fouls, picking up almost 23 percent of its offense off of free throws. In those games against taller SEC opponents, they were extra aggressive, but they may not get those freebie points versus the Terps.

Maryland has done a good job keeping the whistles from blowing, getting called for an average of just 15.5 personal fouls per game and allowing opponents to collect just 17 percent of their points from free throws.

The Terrapins held their ground against aggressive Big Ten foes like Iowa and Minnesota, who also depend on getting to the line. Maryland won both meetings with the Gophers and knocked off Iowa, allowing an average of 64 points in those three games.

Louisiana State will need to find another way to put up points, and I’m going Under the Tigers’ team total of 73.5 Saturday.


NO. 10 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS VS NO. 2 MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Odds: MSU -10, 142 at FanDuel Sportsbooks
Start Time: 7:45 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, Iowa

The Golden Gophers benefitted from a March miracle in their opening game versus Louisville Thursday. After averaging only 5.4 made 3-pointers all season (13th fewest in the country), Minnesota was money from beyond the arc, knocking down 11 triples on 41 percent shooting from outside.

I’m not buying it. The Gophers were 10 for 36 from distance in the three games prior to Thursday and face a pissed-off Michigan State team coming off a very uncomfortable win over Bradley in the Round of 64.

Michigan State defeated Minnesota 79-55 as a 13.5-point home favorite back on February 9, limiting the Gophers to 36 percent shooting from the floor (5 for 14 from 3-point land). The Spartans pulled away in the second half with 44 points in the final 20 minutes, which has been somewhat of a calling card for MSU.

Michigan State sprung for 42 second-half points Thursday and is averaging 40.6 points in the final 20 minutes over the last five games. With Minnesota coming back to earth and Izzo lighting a fire under this team, I’m going to ride those strong showings after the break with a play on MSU -4.5 second-half spread.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's odds and best bets for Midwest Region Round 2
Andrew Caley

The Tigers were cruising until the final mintues against New Mexico State, they can't afford to stumble like that against a much stronger Kansas team.

The Midwest Region tips off its Round of 32 Saturday with a pair of intriguing matchups. Kentucky could be without its best player when they take on tournament darling Wofford, while Auburn takes on Kansas in a 4-5 matchup of Power 5 teams. We break down the odds and totals for all three games while giving predictions and best bets.

(7) WOFFORD TERRIERS vs (2) KENTUCKY WILDCATS

Odds:
Start Time: 2:40 p.m. ET, VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida

Second-seeded Kentucky will likely be without its leading scorer and rebounder for a second straight game when it meets No. 7 seed Wofford Saturday.

PJ Washington missed Thursday's 79-44 thrashing of 15th-seeded Abilene Christian because of a sprained foot, but his absence could be felt against the Terriers.

Keldon Johnson stepped up in Washington’s absence with 25 points and six boards. But he is nowhere near the defender Washington is and the Wildcats perimeter defense, which ranks 203rd in opponent 3-point percentage, could struggle against the sharp-shooting Terriers.

ACU ranked 195th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to ninth for the Terriers. That number is fueled by Wofford’s prolific 3-point shooting. They hit nearly 42 percent of their shots from behind the arc, led by senior Fletcher Magee, who broke the NCAA record for most 3-pointers made in a career in Wofford’s win over Seton Hall.

Kentucky is the deeper and more athletic team, and in the end, it may be too much for Wofford to overcome. But the 'Cats are prone to turnovers sometimes and that could lead to more shooting opportunites for Wofford. Plus, the Terriers seems to have some of that tournament magic surrounding it and as dangerous as they are from deep, they should be able to keep this close until the final minutes. Take the points with the Terriers.


(5) AUBURN TIGERS vs (4) KANSAS JAYHAWKS

Odds: KU +2, 147.5
Start Time: 9:40 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah

Auburn and Kansas come into their Second Round matchup having very different opening games. The Tigers escaped with a hard-fought 78-77 victory over New Mexico State after nearly blowing a seven-point lead in the final minute, while Kansas got to put in neutral in the second half of its 87-53 steamrolling of Northeastern.

The Tigers played pretty poorly down the stretch versus the Aggies, but there were also some calls that didn’t go their way. Either way this game shouldn’t have been this close, and the Tigers will want to come out strong to make amends.

Auburn will once again rely on its 3-point shooting to carry it in this one. The Tigers take and make a lot of 3’s, hitting nearly 38 percent of their attempts and are led by their guard duo of Bryce Brown and Jared Harper score 15.7 and 15.2 points respectively hitting nearly 40 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They will face an athletic Jayhawks team, that while athletic, has some problems defending the perimeter, ranking 110th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage.

Kansas on the other hand, will attempt to attack Auburn on the interior, behind the likes of Dedric Lawson (19.3 ppg). The Jayhawks scored 50 points in the paint for the second straight game in their win over Northeastern and the Tigers ranked 214th in opponents 2-point field goal percentage.

Kansas and Auburn are equipped to score on one another and combine to score an average of just over 155 points per game. Take the Over in this matchup.

But the Tigers have another small edge here. They really hustle. That has resulted in them ranking in the top 15 in steals and block, and Kansas can get sloppy with the ball at times. The Jayhawks ranked 296th in turnovers this season. Lay the points with the Tigers to cover as small faves. Parlay at your own risk.