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Saturday's odds and best bets for West Region Round 2
Brandon DuBreuil
The West Region tips off its Round of 32 games on Saturday which means we get to see Ja Morant light up a basketball court again after he put up the performance of the tournament so far on Thursday. We break down the odds and totals for all three games while giving predictions and best bets.
(10) Florida Gators vs (2) Michigan Wolverines
Odds: Michigan -7, 120.5
Start time: 5:15 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
If you’re looking for a pretty basketball game look elsewhere as the defensive-minded Wolverines and Gators go head to head with a total of 120.5. Michigan got to Round 2 by dominating Montana in the first round (for the second straight year) while Florida played a solid first half and then hung on for dear life in edging Nevada.
I loved Florida to win on Thursday but that was mostly due to Nevada being overrated. And let’s be honest, Nevada probably should have won that game but the Wolf Pack made mistake after mistake to let Florida off the hook. The Gators looked shell shocked for a good portion of the second half as Nevada applied full-court pressure and if a couple of breaks had went the Wolf Pack's way, they'd be the ones taking on Michigan today.
They're not, however, and that gives us the chance to fade the Gators. The Wolverines should win this game rather easily and lately, when they win, they cover, as Michigan is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 wins. Back the maize and blue -7.
(12) Murray State Racers vs (4) Florida State Seminoles
Odds: Florida State -5, 143.5
Start time: 6:10 p.m. ET, XL Center, Hartford
If you didn’t know Ja Morant’s name before Thursday, you certainly do now after the sophomore guard recorded the NCAA Tournament’s first triple-double since Draymond Green posted one in 2012. He was absolutely ridiculous against Marquette, scoring or assisting on 53 points as the Racers dropped 83 on the Golden Eagles. Murray State has won 12 games in a row, going 8-4 ATS with the total going 6-6 over that span.
Florida State got a first-half scare against Vermont (with the Catamounts getting us a first-half winner) but the game went exactly as I had predicted with the Seminoles using their depth to pull away in the second.
Here’s what stood out to me from the Seminoles win: They allowed Vermont to hit 16 threes on 50 percent shooting from downtown. Florida State hasn’t been terrible at defending the three this season, but they haven’t been great either, allowing opponents to hit at 33.3 percent (109th in the nation).
Murray State was 9 of 18 from downtown against Marquette and is shooting 34.8 percent on the season. The Racers will likely be dialing it up from three against Florida State after the towering Seminoles allowed just seven field goals from inside the arc against Vermont.
Another factor I love is that Murray State allows opponents to shoot 48 percent on two-point field goals and I expect the Seminoles to try and use their size inside to exploit the smaller Racers. Bank on lots of points in this one and take the Over 143.5.
(9) Baylor Bears vs (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Odds: Gonzaga -12.5, 148
Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Area, Salt Lake City
Coming into the tournament, Baylor had lost four straight and were averaging just 54 points per game. Then the Bears went out and lit up Syracuse’s 2/3 zone defense for 78 points behind 16-of-34 shooting from the 3-point line.
It was a nice performance, but sorry Bears fans, it comes to an end on Saturday against a Gonzaga team that is very good at defending the three, allowing opponents to shoot at just 30.8 percent from downtown (25th-best in the nation).
The Zags came out with something to prove in the first round after losing in the WCC title game and they took it out on hapless Fairleigh Dickinson, dropping 53 in the first half en route to an 87-49 win.
There are two more reasons why I like the Bulldogs to win easily. Makai Mason, Baylor’s best player, played well against Cuse but appeared to be in discomfort all evening. He’s been bothered by a toe injury and the quick turnaround here isn’t going to help him.
Finally, the Bears just aren’t a good ATS team as they are 2-8-2 in their last 12 games and 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight losses. I’m double dipping on the Zags here and backing them at -7 for the first half and -12.5 for the game.
Brandon DuBreuil
The West Region tips off its Round of 32 games on Saturday which means we get to see Ja Morant light up a basketball court again after he put up the performance of the tournament so far on Thursday. We break down the odds and totals for all three games while giving predictions and best bets.
(10) Florida Gators vs (2) Michigan Wolverines
Odds: Michigan -7, 120.5
Start time: 5:15 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Arena, Des Moines, IA
If you’re looking for a pretty basketball game look elsewhere as the defensive-minded Wolverines and Gators go head to head with a total of 120.5. Michigan got to Round 2 by dominating Montana in the first round (for the second straight year) while Florida played a solid first half and then hung on for dear life in edging Nevada.
I loved Florida to win on Thursday but that was mostly due to Nevada being overrated. And let’s be honest, Nevada probably should have won that game but the Wolf Pack made mistake after mistake to let Florida off the hook. The Gators looked shell shocked for a good portion of the second half as Nevada applied full-court pressure and if a couple of breaks had went the Wolf Pack's way, they'd be the ones taking on Michigan today.
They're not, however, and that gives us the chance to fade the Gators. The Wolverines should win this game rather easily and lately, when they win, they cover, as Michigan is 11-0 ATS in its last 11 wins. Back the maize and blue -7.
(12) Murray State Racers vs (4) Florida State Seminoles
Odds: Florida State -5, 143.5
Start time: 6:10 p.m. ET, XL Center, Hartford
If you didn’t know Ja Morant’s name before Thursday, you certainly do now after the sophomore guard recorded the NCAA Tournament’s first triple-double since Draymond Green posted one in 2012. He was absolutely ridiculous against Marquette, scoring or assisting on 53 points as the Racers dropped 83 on the Golden Eagles. Murray State has won 12 games in a row, going 8-4 ATS with the total going 6-6 over that span.
Florida State got a first-half scare against Vermont (with the Catamounts getting us a first-half winner) but the game went exactly as I had predicted with the Seminoles using their depth to pull away in the second.
Here’s what stood out to me from the Seminoles win: They allowed Vermont to hit 16 threes on 50 percent shooting from downtown. Florida State hasn’t been terrible at defending the three this season, but they haven’t been great either, allowing opponents to hit at 33.3 percent (109th in the nation).
Murray State was 9 of 18 from downtown against Marquette and is shooting 34.8 percent on the season. The Racers will likely be dialing it up from three against Florida State after the towering Seminoles allowed just seven field goals from inside the arc against Vermont.
Another factor I love is that Murray State allows opponents to shoot 48 percent on two-point field goals and I expect the Seminoles to try and use their size inside to exploit the smaller Racers. Bank on lots of points in this one and take the Over 143.5.
(9) Baylor Bears vs (1) Gonzaga Bulldogs
Odds: Gonzaga -12.5, 148
Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET, Vivint Smart Home Area, Salt Lake City
Coming into the tournament, Baylor had lost four straight and were averaging just 54 points per game. Then the Bears went out and lit up Syracuse’s 2/3 zone defense for 78 points behind 16-of-34 shooting from the 3-point line.
It was a nice performance, but sorry Bears fans, it comes to an end on Saturday against a Gonzaga team that is very good at defending the three, allowing opponents to shoot at just 30.8 percent from downtown (25th-best in the nation).
The Zags came out with something to prove in the first round after losing in the WCC title game and they took it out on hapless Fairleigh Dickinson, dropping 53 in the first half en route to an 87-49 win.
There are two more reasons why I like the Bulldogs to win easily. Makai Mason, Baylor’s best player, played well against Cuse but appeared to be in discomfort all evening. He’s been bothered by a toe injury and the quick turnaround here isn’t going to help him.
Finally, the Bears just aren’t a good ATS team as they are 2-8-2 in their last 12 games and 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight losses. I’m double dipping on the Zags here and backing them at -7 for the first half and -12.5 for the game.
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