Service Plays Monday 4/1/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris
4 Unit under 219 Phil/Dal

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
4 Unit over 217.5 Phil/Dal

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis
4 Unit NY -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
4 Unit Portland -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman
4 Unit Portland -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


CLEVELAND -156


CHI. WHITE SOX @ CLEVELAND | 4/01 | 4:10 PM EDT
11:30 AM
The Indians managed just five runs in three games at Minnesota. That's not good. But now they return home -- only the Red Sox, Yankees and Rockies scored more runs at home than Cleveland last year. And Cleveland's lineup is a lifetime .394 against Sox starter Ivan Nova, albeit in limited action. Mike Clevinger has had considerable success against Chicago in his career, especially last year when he went 3-0, allowing three earned runs over 20.1 innings and 28 strikeouts.

7-4 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +135
9-3 IN LAST 12 CLE ML PICKS | +588

9-4 IN LAST 13 CHW ML PICKS | +490


PITTSBURGH -125


ST. LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH | 4/01 | 1:05 PM EDT
11:22 AM
Chris Archer had a subpar spring, but he ended last year's regular season on a strong note, so we're banking on Archer being a pitcher that gets up for games that count. The Pirates' home opener would qualify, and they've won five hope openers in a row. The Cardinals lost three of four in Milwaukee and the road trip to open the year continues. Adam Wainwright has a career 5.54 ERA at PNC Park (in a lot of appearances), and last season he was 0-3 witha 5.66 ERA in four day-game starts.

7-4 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +135
2-1 IN LAST 3 STL ML PICKS | +109

10-8 IN LAST 18 PIT ML PICKS | +58


L.A. DODGERS -210


SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 4/01 | 10:10 PM EDT
12:43 PM
Any money line spread over -200 gives me pause, but not here. Only two teams has had more at-bats (64) against LHPs so far this young season than the Giants, but they're batting just .191 with one run and more strikeouts than hits. Julio Urias is electric when he's on, and the Giants' offense doesn't have the tools to rattle him. Drew Pomeranz was 1-3 with a 6.31 ERA in road games last year, and that was with the Red Sox offense behind him. He'll face the hottest bats in the league in L.A., where the Dodgers have won nine of 12 home openers.

7-4 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +135
15-7 IN LAST 22 LAD ML PICKS | +1162

3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ML PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


BROOKLYN +2


MILWAUKEE @ BROOKLYN | 4/01 | 7:30 PM EDT
12:18 PM
The Bucks have multiple players injured or sitting out to rest for the playoffs. Brooklyn is at home and needs it. The Nets have covered five of six while the Bucks are on the second night of a back-to-back, a situation in which they've covered twice in the past seven tries. Grab the points.

69-52-1 IN LAST 122 NBA ATS PICKS | +1177
25-17-1 IN LAST 43 MIL ATS PICKS | +633

14-11-1 IN LAST 26 BKN ATS PICKS | +205


NEW YORK -3.5


CHICAGO @ NEW YORK | 4/01 | 7:30 PM EDT
10:59 AM
Since shutting down Lauri Markkanen, the Bulls have lost by 20 and 23 at home to Portland and Toronto. Now they're on the road against a Knicks team that, while horrific, clearly has more talent in the likes of Emmanuel Mudiay and Kevin Knox. It's hard to lay points with the Knicks but this spot calls for it.

69-52-1 IN LAST 122 NBA ATS PICKS | +1177
32-13-2 IN LAST 47 CHI ATS PICKS | +1786

2-1 IN LAST 3 NY ATS PICKS | +92

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Barner


ORLANDO +7.5


ORLANDO @ TORONTO | 4/01 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:46 AM
The Raptors still have an outside shot at the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but the Magic will be the team playing with a sense of urgency Monday. They’ve won seven of their last 10 games and sit just half a game out of the eighth seed. The Raptors are just 16-23 ATS at home this season, so even though the Magic might not win, I like taking the points based on this line.

54-39-3 IN LAST 96 NBA ATS PICKS | +1072
5-0 IN LAST 5 TOR ATS PICKS | +500

7-3-1 IN LAST 11 ORL ATS PICKS | +366


MIAMI +7


MIAMI @ BOSTON | 4/01 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:45 AM
The Celtics have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 games as they scuffle towards the finish line. Their 27-12 record at home this season is impressive, but they are only 20-19 there ATS. Meanwhile, the Heat are 25-12 ATS on the road, so I’ll take the points.

54-39-3 IN LAST 96 NBA ATS PICKS | +1072
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIA ATS PICKS | +89


NEW YORK -3.5


CHICAGO @ NEW YORK | 4/01 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:44 AM
This game isn’t going to be pretty. The Bulls are basically trotting out a G League roster due to all of their injuries, which has resulted in them losing each of their last four games by an average of 20.8 points. The Knicks roster isn’t exactly loaded, but they at least have talented players like Mitchell Robinson and Dennis Smith Jr. available to play, so I’ll take them to cover.

54-39-3 IN LAST 96 NBA ATS PICKS | +1072
4-1 IN LAST 5 CHI ATS PICKS | +288

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

2 Units - #917 Orioles (+160) vs Toronto *7 EST

Break up the Orioles! That's right, Baltimore won the series at Yankee Stadium to start the season and next travel north to Canada. I think the Birds good luck could continue, at least for one more game from that feel good series. David Hess takes the ball for the O's and he's started three times against the Blue Jays and permitted two runs over 19 innings (0.95 ERA). Toronto split four games with Detroit at home but only scored 12 runs. The Jays will counter with Sean Reid-Foley who has undeniable talent but struggles to throw strikes, even in Triple-A and could get himself in trouble versus a Baltimore offense that just scored 14 times against the Pinstripes. This early in the season, anything is possible, why can't the Birds start 3-1? Their hitting is better and worth taking the big number here as the entire universe will be on the Blue Jays. One thing is for sure, Baltimore will make this a hell of a game. THIS IS NOT AN APRILS FOOLS PICK!

3 Units - #905 Chicago Cubs / #906 Atlanta (OVER 8) -110 *7:10 EST

Hitting alone has me all over the Cubs here as they lost in a shootout to Texas Sunday 10-11 and the Cubbies scored 28 runs in their 3 game stand against Texas. Conversely, Atlanta scored 11 runs in their first 3 game series, and only 1 run yesterday against Philly. The Cubs are hitting .336 as a team and Atlanta .221. It should be a higher scoring game here and overall talent has me on Chicago who will be determined to get a series win here after losing 2 in a row and a series to Texas. Newcomb, Atlanta's pitcher walked more batters than he struck out in Spring Training. Chicago has shown pitching issues and Hendricks gets the start and struggled in spring training with his command and gave up 22 hits in 16 innings in the spring. I expect some runs here, runners in scoring position and more of a shootout here. Lean Chicago -120 but like the totals play better and Atlanta should be amped up for their home opener. Chicago 7-1 last 8 road games dating back to last year and Atlanta is 7-2 on obvers at home also dating back to last year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones
20* South Florida
20* BROOKLYN

[dawggy]

CAL SPORTSBASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (701) Depaul at (702) South Florida
  Date/Time: Apr 1 2019 7:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: South Florida -1.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
  #702 4* USF -1.5 DePaul 7 PM
  Must-win for USF as the next two games in those best of three format are at DePaul. DePaul has played all 3 tourney games at home so they are now playing in a hostile setting for the first time since March 9th. The Blue Devils have shot 52.5&, 59% & 58.9% % their last 3 games but as mentioned all 3 were at home and came against the #207, #23 & #198 D’s of Cent Mich, Longwood & Coastal Carolina and now play the #41 D on the road.

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASKETBALL PLAYS

• FINN MON NBA PRIVATE PLAY (5-1)
  Game: (567) Orlando Magic at (568) Toronto Raptors
  Date/Time: Apr 1 2019 7:35 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Orlando Magic 7.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Play Orlando Magic +7 (good to +5)
  4% game rating
  
  (567) Orlando Magic at (568) Toronto Raptors
  The bare-bottom truth is that nobody want to play the Magic come postseason time. Orlandowere displaced and efficient in their 121-116 road victory over the Indiana Pacers on Saturday.
  The club has five games left in the regular season, including tonight's event, and is an obvious statement to suggest that every game is an important one and the Disney World troop has won seven of their last eight games.
  
  The Raptors would be happiest if the regular season was in the books. This rather than have to dress and travel across their final handful of contests. Coach Nurse isn't going to over-extned his players and the "good use" of the final five games of the season that Nurse was referring to was getting his bench more minutes.
  
  "It's not like I'm saying we haven't done this enough or that enough or he hasn't played enough," Nurse said. "We're ready to roll but since it's not time to roll and there is time to polish a few things up then we are going to do that."
  
  Orlando has a vested interest in winning this game and they matchup well against the Raptors first unit... The Magic are head and shoulders more talented that Toronto's second unit.
  
  ORLANDO MAGIC +7

[dawggy]

FINN MON DOUBLEHEADER GAME 1
Game:(905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Atlanta Braves +105

View Analysis

PLAY: Atlanta Braves +105 (good to -110)
LIST PITCHERS Newcombe vs Hendricks
3% game rating

(905) Chicago Cubs at (906) Atlanta Braves
The Chicago Cubs visit SunTrust Park in Cumberland, Georgia to square off against the Atlanta Braves. Chicago received a solid outing from their season opening starter Lester but since then have scuffled to locate the play and register outs.
Chicago offense found them recording 17 hits in Sunday's loss to Texas, their second straight, and head to face the Braves with a 1-2 overall mark. The Braves are the only team in the bigs without a win losing their first three events. Pitching has been the Braves Achilles through their trio of season openers. The Braves pitching staff allowed 23 runs and 20 walks to the Phillies lineup. The Atlanta offense generated scored eleven runs in the season opening series on the road.
The Northsiders, the Cubs, send RH Kyle Hendricks (2018: 14-11, 3.44 ERA) to the mound to square off against Braves LH Sean Newcomb (2018: 12-9, 3.90)
To somewhat of a surprise Hendricks received a four-game contract extension before the season. Hendricks is an innings eater. The right-hander saw the first inning more than any ChiTown pitcher a year ago tossing a total of 199 innings. Hendricks missed facing the Braves last year but has four career appearances against Atlanta has a 1-0 mark with a 2.33 ERA.
The Braves starter Newcomb carried his success of 2018 into Spring Training despite his surface numbers. Newcomb closed the exhibition slate vs the Reds. The lefty allowed two runs on three hits (one homer) and no walks with five strikeouts in four innings. The Atlanta southpaw looked comfortable in the closing stages of last season and is in great form for tonight's start.
Newcomb walked 15 in 21 March innings but it isn't relevant to tonight's event. Newcomb was his usual self with his arsenal this spring. And the coaching staff and Newcomb were working on some release point changes and had little concern that Newcomb wouldn't improve this year on his career 4.7 BB/9 rate. The lefty was 8-5 with a 3.51 ERA in the first half of last season. He closed, after the All-Star break, with a 4-4 mark but his adjusted peripherals were solid. Despite losing his final three starts in 2018, versus Washington, at New York Mets and at Philadelphia, the lefty induced nearly as many ground balls as fly balls and in the month of September allowed just 14 hits in 19 innings of work. He struck out 22 while walking 12. August, following the break, was part of his '18 campaign in which he hit a wall, suffered from some dead-arm issues. Outside of that there wasn't a 2018 month in which he allowed more hits than innings pitched.
Most notably is his ability to limit home runs, in a pitcher-friendly park, with a 0.95 HR/9 mark across 264 career innings.
In addition Newcomb saw his splits fall more in line with what his pay grade suggests. Newcomb's righty vs lefty numbers in 2018 were much more drastic than that of last year. And the reason is the addition of a quality changeup in 2018. He increased the usage of the pitch by 8.5% and his split against right-handed hitters dropped .038 points to .299.
While Newcomb saw his hard contact last season climb he ranked with a number of the best pitchers in baseball at avoiding hard contact within the zone. The lefty has over-the-top good stuff with crazy good movement and his contact rate on pitches within the strike zone was 14th best in 2018 at 83.9%.
Top Five Pitchers -- contact within the strike zone
1. Max Schertzer
2. Justin Verlander
3. Jacob deGrom
4. Gerrit Cole
5. Blake Snell
14. Sean Newcomb
Hendricks' meager strikeout rate caps his upside. His pedestrian swing and miss percentage isn't a terrific fit to hitter-friendly SunTrust, as well.
The Cubs slashed just .260/.333/.398/.730 a year ago and ranked 25th in the bigs in home runs against left-handed pitching with just 31 long balls. Chicago's splits, slash and power numbers against right-handed pitching vs lefties had a ridiculous lean. Again the Cubbies hit just 31 HR's against left-handers a year ago while hitting 136 versus righties.
The Braves slash line of .252/.320/.407/.726 versus right-handed pitching ranked sixth on the senior circuit.
The Braves closed their home portion of their schedule a season ago with a perfect 6-0 record vs RHP.
Braves lefty Sean Newcomb came within one strike of a no-hitter Sunday, going 8 2/3 innings vs. the Dodgers while allowing one run on one hit and one walk with eight strikeouts. Newcomb didn't yield a hit until there were two outs in the top of the ninth, when Chris Taylor laced a 2-2 pitch through the left side for a single that scuttled Newcomb's bid at history
Newcomb is primed to come into his own this season. He has earned a slot in the rotation for the second straight season and, again, with expected improvement in his walks to nine innings ratio this season with a simplified delivery there is serious upside here. The lefty has never failed to strike out a batter an inning at any level, and despite relatively low-to-average GB rates his in the zone hard contact limits home runs.
As much as a half walk per nine innings for Newcomb allows him to close in on 15 wins this season and be a reliable every fifth day starter for the Braves.
BRAVES +105

[dawggy]

FINN MON MLB DOUBLEHEADER GAME 2
Game:(907) New York Mets at (908) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Apr 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Mets -130

View Analysis

PLAY New York Mets -130 (good to -145)
LIST PITCHERS: Matz vs Smith
4% game rating
(907) New York Mets at (908) Miami Marlins
Everything fits into a pitcher perfect (almost) season for Steven Matz. He wasn't overused a season ago and a healthy Matz makes the Mets rotation the best, top to bottom, in baseball.
Matz isn't Jacob deGrom. Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler but he has learned more from the trio than is measurable. Matz is under a new pinching staff and his first pitch strikes figure to be head and shoulders better than it has been over the last two seasons.. The Mets are keeping it simply with their delivery. And the staff has asked Matz, and he has complied, with using one motion from the windup and one from the stretch with the aim of curtailing injuries.

Here is what we saw from Matz this spring. He is pitching inside 10 percent more than he did a season ago and he is producing five percent weaker contact.

The simplified motion and added work before the left takes the mound will assist the young fireballer in improving his 7.28 first inning ERA.

The bottom line for Matz is that he not only is a top-end of the rotation lefty for most teams.. with the Mets he is a bottom of the rotation arm... but a fine find he is.

The money-line value on Matz will be restricted to April and May. The lefty will remain in the rotation, and avoid the DL -- as a result this is the campaign in his career that see's the southpaw take that step closer to elite status.

I am a seller on Smith. He comes into the 2019 campaign having missed a large part of 2018 due to injury. In his 77 1/3 innings pitched a year ago he had his fifteen-minutes. He posted a 27.0% strikeout rate, 75.6% contact rate, and 11.6% swinging strike rate.

However, Smith has three serious issues that at this level prohibit him from being successful. He is essentially a one pitch pitcher (high percentage of fastballs) and his lack of command. The aforementioned combination make a talented arm at the minor league level. His advantage, and the reason he is in a big league rotation is that his home park is pitcher-friendly, in Miami, where fly balls go to die. Miami is the second best pitcher’s park in the league, and a lot of his fly balls were hit at launch angles higher than fifty degrees.

No high fly ball rate is a recipe for success, even in South Beach. Smith's swinging strike rate, zone rate, and chase ratio are have charted out to a walk ration of 8.0% to 9.0% for historical pitchers with Smiths underlying peripherals. Smith's issues are not his talent. His Achilles is in his head. He is notoriously inconsistent and is a serious fade in unfriendly pitching conditions, like tonight in Miami, when the new-look Mets, a disciplined lineup, that knows how to draw walks... And despite a venue that favors pitchers over hitters the 80 degree temps tonight in Miami seriously favor the Mets lineup vs a Marlins squad that will lose 100 games this season.

Smith --- is making his first start since late June -- and by all indications has not shown improved form that will improve his 33 walks in 77 1/3 frames a year ago.

New York took two of three from the Nationals.... and yes, Scherzer, Strasburg and Corbin were the starts that the Mets' lineup was facing.. The Marlins rotation isn't anything close to that of the Nats... and in truth, the Mets rotation is better than Washington's and the New York bats will do damage to the Fish starters and their pen. In their first series of the season the Mets did most of their damage against the Nationals' bullpen, scoring 11 of their 18 runs in the eighth or ninth inning.

NEW YORK METS -130

[dawggy]

FINN MON NITE NHL HI-ROLLER
Game:(45) Colorado Avalanche at (46) St. Louis Blues
Date/Time: Apr 1 2019 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Colorado Avalanche +141

View Analysis

PLAY: Colorado Ave's +141 (good to +130)
3% game rating
(45) Colorado Avalanche at (46) St. Louis Blues

The return of Gabriel Landeskog from an upper-body injury can't be emphasized enough. Landeskog does everything and anything to contribute. The captain of the Ave's steered Nathan MacKinnon's power-play goal into the net in Friday's 3-2 shootout win over Arizona. Colorado is playing desperate hockey as the currently hold the final wild-card slot in the Western Conference standings.

The Blues are a solid 27-10-4 run since appearing dead in the postseason water. St Louis is in the hunt for the top points in the Central Division and sit just two-points behind the Preds for the fourth best record in the West.

As well as the Blues have executed since the break and just two-points away from owning one of the top four point totals in the West this game sets up extremely favorable for the Ave's.

Expect nothing short of Colorado scoring first in their ninth straight game while G Philipp Grubauer continues his dominant play. Grubauer is 6-0-1 with a 1.55 goals-against average and .957 save percentage in his last seven starts.

COLORADO AVALANCHE +141