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7-Unit Play. #727 Take Lipscomb (+1.5) over Texas (7 p.m., Thursday, April 4)
We missed with TCU against Texas in Tuesday's semi-final match-up, but I think that loss for us sets up for an even bigger payday tonight in the NIT Championship. Look, Lipscomb is a really, really good team. In fact, they are the better team in this match-up. Let's be honest, the only reason oddsmakers have favored Texas is because they are a power conference team from the Big 12 up against a mid-major from the Atlantic Sun. It surely isn't because of what they have accomplished this season. This Bisons team appeared in the NCAA Tournament last year, but arguably this year's March efforts have done the program one better. 29 wins on the year, already the best ever record for this basketball program, and it would be quite fitting for the team to earn their 30th win of the year in the NIT Championship. And objectively speaking, I have a hard time not seeing this A-Sun team finish what they started in this tournament. Lipscomb won three straight games on opponents' home floor, including beating No. 1 seed and 29-win UNC-Greensboro as well as the ACC's 24-win N.C. State in Raleigh. And despite being down by double digits in the second half in Tuesday's semi-final game vs. Wichita State, the Bisons produced an 18-point swing to turn that game on its head and find a way into tonight's title contest. All of these efforts tell me, as I said, that I have a hard time imagining this inspired mid-major to not finish this tournament run with a win against against a Texas team that was just 16-16 on the year as they entered NIT play. So not to diminish the Longhorns' efforts to get here just the same, but Texas had a much easier road to NYC. Specifically to that, this isn't a good match-up for them, a team that has shown to be extremely inconsistent scoring the basketball. Lipscomb has averaged 82 points over the course of the season, and this veteran and experienced team is not going to be denied. After losing the Atlantic Sun conference tournament final, it's clear this team did not allow themselves to feel sorry for missing out on the NCAA Tournament. They responded accordingly by going 4-0 both SU and ATS in this tournament. Even further, tonight's NIT title game is their own NCAA Tournament championship. Despite being a small underdog, all the value is on them with none of the pressure. What this team has accomplished is extremely rare for a small program from Nashville. The upperclassmen for Lipscomb would have been around when they played Texas two years ago in Austin. That was a 23-point loss and clearly the two teams weren't on the same level. That's no longer the case. Garrison Mathews is an NBA-caliber shooting guard. Think J.J. Redick. Rob Marberry is a four-year player who has averaged double figure points for three straight seasons. Kenny Cooper is a talented junior point guard who works really well together with his two top scorers. This moment will not be too big for this group. Tuesday they found a way to win despite shooting 35 percent from the floor, notably 5-23 from three. That won't be the case tonight. Lipscomb beats Texas for the NIT title.
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