Monday 4-22-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Diamond Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Astros are 12-0 SU in the first game of a series with no rest at home off a loss as a favorite in which they never led.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Orioles are 0-14 SU at home off a game as a dog in which they struck out at least ten times and it is before the All-Star break.

Batter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Royals are 0-15 SU on the road off a road game in which Whit Merrifield struck out at least twice.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Nationals are 0-13 OU in franchise history with Jeremy Hellickson when he averaged fewer than 4.1 pitches per batter in his last start, staying under by an average of 3.19 runs per game.

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Monday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Game 4 – Bucks (-12 ½, 219 ½) at Pistons – 8:05 PM EST – TNT
Milwaukee leads series, 3-0

The Celtics are waiting in the wings for the Bucks in the second round of the playoffs after Boston swept Indiana in four games. Milwaukee is one victory away from a playoff rematch with Boston in a series that went the distance in 2018 and won by the Celtics. However, the top-seeded Bucks have to suffer through one more game with the Pistons, as Milwaukee has won and covered in each of the first three games by double-digits.

The first two contests in Milwaukee were no doubt blowouts as the Bucks cashed as 15-point favorites each time in 35 and 21-point routs. In Game 3 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Pistons’ star Blake Griffin returned to the lineup after missing the first two losses with a lingering knee injury. Griffin led the Pistons with 27 points, but Milwaukee cruised past Detroit, 119-103 for its seventh win over the Pistons this season.

Seven different Bucks posted double-figures in the Game 3 win as Khris Middleton put up 20 points, while Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez each scored 19 points to help Milwaukee cash as 9 ½-point favorites. The Bucks improved to 6-0-1 ATS this season against Detroit, while six of the seven wins have come by 10 points or more.

Milwaukee snapped a six-game road playoff losing streak in Saturday’s victory, as the Bucks picked up their first away postseason win since Game 1 of the 2017 first round series against the Raptors. The Pistons had won 11 consecutive games at Little Caesars Arena from February 4 through March 30, but Detroit is currently on a 1-3 run at home the last four opportunities.


Game 4 – Rockets (-3, 214 ½) at Jazz – 10:35 PM EST – TNT
Houston leads series, 3-0

How well are things going for the Rockets? Last season’s MVP James Harden missed his first 15 shots from the floor in Game 3 at Utah, but the Rockets still managed a 104-101 victory to grab a 3-0 series advantage. Houston and Golden State are on the verge of meeting once again in the postseason after last season’s epic seven-game set won by the Warriors, but the Rockets need one more victory to move forward.

Rewinding to Saturday’s Game 3 in Salt Lake City, in spite of Harden’s horrendous start from the floor, he finished with 22 points and 10 assists on 3-of-20 shooting. All five Rockets’ starters scored in double-figures as Chris Paul posted 18 points, while P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela each compiled a double-double. The only offensive firepower from the Jazz came courtesy of Donovan Mitchell, who scored 34 points, but also struggled shooting by hitting 9-of-27 attempts.

Utah captured the first two meetings in the regular season, but Houston won the final two matchups before taking the opening three games of this series. Dating back to the start of the 2017-18 season, the Rockets have won 13 of the last 16 meetings with the Jazz, including a 6-1 mark at Vivint Smart Home Arena.

Chris David expected Houston to sweep Utah in four games and he’s sticking with that angle on Monday. He explained, “After closing as short ‘dogs on Saturday, the Rockets go from hunter to hunted in this game and will be laying as road favorites. We saw the same situation happen yesterday with Boston as the Celtics cashed as an underdog in Game 3 on Friday before sealing the series in Game 4. While homecourt is a big factor in the NBA, talent wins out and we’ve seen that so far in this year’s playoffs. Road favorites are 7-0 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in the postseason with the Warriors and Raptors just missing covers by a couple points over the weekend.”

He added, “Houston’s numbers as a road favorite (15-12 SU, 10-16-1 ATS) don’t seem appealing but a lot of those losses came early in the season. Since the All-Star break, the club has gone 6-3 when laying points as a visitor. It’s rare to see Utah listed as a home underdog, just twice this season (1-1). However, the Jazz are 0-3 both SU and ATS in their last three games as an underdog versus Houston and that includes a pair of losses in last year’s Western Conference semifinals. Some bettors might feel more secure taking the visitor on the money-line (-150) but make a note that the Rockets won all three of those games in Salt Lake City by double digits and the ‘under’ cashed in each contest too.”

Under Quin Snyder, the Jazz have put together an 0-5 SU/ATS record as a home underdog in the playoffs, including four straight losses by 11 points or more. The Rockets are currently riding a 7-1 run to the UNDER in the last eight playoff games, including three straight UNDERS against the Jazz on the road since last season’s second round matchup.

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Mark Wilson

Apr 22 '19, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | White Sox vs Orioles
Play on: White Sox -111 at 5Dimes

Free Play on White Sox -111

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Brandon Lee

Apr 22 '19, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Pirates
Play on: Pirates -139 at pinnacle

10* FREE MLB PICK (Pirates -139)
I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh securing a win in Monday's series opener against the Diamondbacks. This will be the final stop on Arizona's 10-game road trip and the back-end of a road trip can be a challenge. Pirates have been a huge surprise so far. While they lost on Sunday they had won 5 straight prior to the defeat, are 6-3 at home this season and own the best winning percentage in the NL.
Most importantly, Pittsburgh will have the edge on the mound in this one. Pirates turn to Joe Musgrove, who has allowed a mere 2 earned runs (0.89 ERA) in 3 starts (20.3 innings). Arizona will counter with Zack Godley, who is coming off a solid outing at Atlanta, but he was fortunate to get out of some early trouble. Even with that strong outing, Godley owns a 6.26 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in 4 starts, giving up 16 runs in 23 innings. Give me the Pirates -139!

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Mike Williams

Apr 22 '19, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | White Sox vs Orioles
Play on: White Sox -115 at Mirage

1* on White Sox -115

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Jack Jones

Apr 22 '19, 7:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Pirates
Play on: Pirates -127 at BMaker

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Pittsburgh Pirates -127
The Pittsburgh Pirates have won five of their last six and are quietly playing some great baseball right now. They have allowed 3 runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games now. That trend should get extended to 11 straight tonight with Joe Musgrove on the mound.
Musgrove is thriving in his new home in Pittsburgh this season. He has gone 1-1 with a 0.89 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in three starts this season, giving up just 2 earned runs and 17 base runners in 20 1/3 innings.
Zack Godley has gotten off to a disastrous start for the Diamondbacks. He is 1-1 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in his four starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 23 innings of work.
Pittsburgh is 18-2 vs. teams that draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons. The Diamondbacks are 3-11 in Godley’s last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Musgrove’s last four home starts. Bet the Pirates Monday.

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Hunter Price

Apr 22 '19, 7:08 PM in 3h
NHL | Capitals vs Hurricanes
Play on: Hurricanes -110 at sportsbook

1* Free Pick on Hurricanes -110

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Ricky Tran

Apr 22 '19, 7:08 PM in 3h
NHL | Capitals vs Hurricanes
Play on: Hurricanes -110 at sportsbook

Ricky's 1* Free Play on the Carolina Hurricanes.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant.
- Home ice advantage. Backs against the wall. Two crucial factors are working in favor of the Hurricanes here. So far “home ice” has meant everything in this series. After getting blown out in Carolina in Game’s 3 and 4, the Capitals bounced back with a big 6-0 win in Game 5 at home. But now it’s time for the Hurricanes to reciproctae. Everything points to a decisive Game 7 in the nation’s capital in my opinion (and the price is a great one as well for the home side tonight.)
Key Trends:
- Washington is a poor 19-22 (-8.4 units) already this season after scoring four goals or more in its previous game.
- Carolina is 14-9 (+4 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest this year.
The verdict: As stated off the top, home ice has meant everything in this series so far and I expect that trend to continue. Play on the Canes!

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Scott Rickenbach

Apr 22 '19, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Phillies vs Mets
Play on: Phillies +107 at BMaker

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Game #953 Monday Free Pick Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - File this play under "regression to the mean" in terms of why you invest in a spot like this. As I have mentioned many times before, the odds makers are quite sharp. They opened up this game at Phillies -115 with the earliest of lines that popped up off shore yesterday afternoon. We're now seeing this line having fully "flipped" as the Mets are favored as high as a -120 and this is offering great value on the road dog! Do you think the odds makers are unaware that Steven Matz had pitched well early this season (before his recent start was a poor one) or that Matz wants revenge against the Phillies after his last outing against them was horrible? Of course they are aware of this! But this is where regression to the mean kicks in. In other words, Matz is not going to keep getting the great results he had early this season. Why would this turn around here? The Phillies have proven before, just like in the last meeting, that they can give Matz a lot of trouble. Also, Matz had a 1.49 WHIP in road games last season. That means he allowed 3 baserunners every 2 innings on average. That is a quick way to get yourself in trouble and the Phillies will be in bounce back mode after losing an ugly series at Colorado. Jake Arrieta has been pitching extremely well for the Phillies this season and has been their top performer. There are no indications of that changing and, keep in mind, he also pitched very well early last season too so this is no fluke! The Mets are on a 58-100 run in games against teams with a winning record the past 2+ seasons. The Phillies are 6-2 after a loss this season. Free Pick PHILADELPHIA

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Totals Guru

Apr 22 '19, 7:10 PM in 3h
MLB | KC vs TAM
Play on: UNDER 8 OFF

Free Total Annihilator On Royals vs Rays under 8 OFF

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Mark Franco

Apr 22 '19, 8:10 PM in 4h
MLB | Twins vs Astros
Play on: Astros -166 at YouWager

Astros
The Minnesota Twins have been quite comfortable playing on the road this season and hope to continue the trend when they visit the Houston Astros for the first of three games Monday night. The Twins, who belted 11 homers in a doubleheader sweep Saturday at Baltimore, finished off the series with a 4-3 victory on Sunday and have won seven of their first 10 away from home this season.
Jake Odorizzi tries to string two wins together when he takes the mound for the Twins in the series opener and Houston gives the ball to fellow right-hander Brad Peacock after leaving the bases loaded in an 11-10 loss at Texas on Sunday. The Astros had won 10 games in a row before dropping three of their last four.
Odorizzi earned his first victory of the season last Wednesday, limiting Toronto to one run on six hits with six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings of a 4-1 victory. The 29-year-old Illinois native yielded eight runs (seven earned) across 5 1/3 frames in his previous two starts.
Peacock returns to the rotation after two straight outings in relief, one of which ended up as a victory at Seattle on April 12. The 31-year-old Florida native has permitted three runs (two earned) across 11 innings on the road this year and gave up five runs over five frames in his only home start.
Twins are 1-10 in Odorizzis last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Astros are 11-3 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Astros are 6-1 in Peacocks last 7 home starts. Twins are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings.
Lay the big number with Houston in this spot.

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Kenny Walker

Apr 22 '19, 8:38 PM in 4h
NHL | Predators vs Stars
Play on: Stars -125 at Mirage

Free Pick on Stars

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Jimmy Boyd

Apr 22 '19, 8:38 PM in 4h
NHL | Predators vs Stars
Play on: Stars -125 at GTBets

1* Free NHL Pick on Dallas Stars -125
Love the value here with the Stars as a small home favorite in Game 6 of their series against the Predators. Dallas took a 3-2 series lead with a 5-3 win at Nashville on Saturday and I'm confident they put an end to the Predators season tonight.
For me it's all about who is protecting the net. Dallas has an absolute rock in Ben Bishop, who is a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. While Nashville's Pekka Rinne won the Vezina award a year ago, he's not performing anywhere close to that in the postseason. Stars have scored 5 goals a piece in Games 4 and 5. Last time Rinne was in the net at Dallas, he gave up 4 goals on 8 shots. Take Dallas!

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Larry Ness

Apr 22 '19, 8:40 PM in 4h
MLB | Nationals vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies -131 at pinnacle

My 1* free play on the Colorado Rockies.
After a slow start the 9-13 Rockies come into this one on top form. Colorado took three of four from the Phillies over the weekend and it’s now won six of its last seven overall.
Colorado slugger Charlie Blackmon was 10 for 18 in the series win over Philadelphia. Rockies’ starter Tyler Anderson (0-2, 11.00 ERA) will now also look to leave his early season struggles in the rear-view mirror. Perhaps a date vs. the Nationals is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as note that he’s 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA in three starts vs. Washington for his career.
The Nationals enter off a 5-0 win at Miami yesterday afternoon, after the Marlins took the first two games of the series.
The visitors counter with Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 2.63) who gave up two runs over five innings vs. the Giants in his latest start, but who is a poor 1-1 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA in two outings against the Rockies for his career.
I like the hard-hitting home side to continue its progression at the plate. Consider Colorado on Monday night.
Good luck…Larry

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Steve Janus

Apr 22 '19, 10:07 PM in 6h
MLB | Rangers vs A's
Play on: A's -125 at sportsbook

1* Free Sharp Play on A's -125
My money is on the A's to cash in a win here at home against the Rangers. Texas' Mike Minor has been outstanding in his last 3 starts and the Rangers are getting a lot of love in this one with him on the mound, especially with Oakland sending out Chris Bassitt for his first start of 2019. I just trust the A's to find a way to win at home against a division rival. Oakland has won 5 straight at home vs a left-handed starter and are 16-5 in their last 21 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Bet the A's -125!