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YESTERDAY 9:53 PM
My projections see the Avalanche and Flames combining for about seven goals in their Friday meeting, providing a value spot on the Over against a total of six. The Over has hit in four of the past five meetings between this clubs and it is also on a 3-1-1 run between them in Calgary.
2-1 IN LAST 3 COL O/U PICKS | +92
PORTLAND +7.5
PORTLAND @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 4/19 | 9:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:36 PM
This point spread reflects a lot of people thinking that the Thunder, down 2-0, will play as if their hair is on fire at home against the Trail Blazers. I get that. But the line has swung too high in the other direction. After being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season, Portland has thoroughly outplayed the Thunder in the first two games of the series. And Paul George may be saying publicly that his shoulder is fine, but his shooting in the series (6-of-22 on 3-pointers) says otherwise. Oklahoma City may win, but I like the Blazers to cover.
69-60 LAST 129 NBA SIDES | +380
5-1 IN LAST 6 OKC ATS PICKS | +389
6-2 IN LAST 8 POR ATS PICKS | +378
BOSTON +3
BOSTON @ INDIANA | 4/19 | 8:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:00 PM
Though the Pacers will be playing at home in Game 3, they still have a significant problem: they have trouble scoring without Victor Oladipo. Indiana’s best chance to beat Boston is to turn the game into a defensive slugfest and win a tight, low-scoring affair. Meanwhile, the Celtics’ Kyrie Irving rediscovered his shooting touch in Game 2, and that’s bad news for Indiana. Boston covers.
69-60 LAST 129 NBA SIDES | +380
6-3 IN LAST 9 IND ATS PICKS | +268
ORLANDO +4.5
TORONTO @ ORLANDO | 4/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:32 PM
Down 1-0, the Raptors were desperate to win Game 2, and they played that way, blowing out the Magic by 29. Now the series shifts to Orlando's Amway Center, which will host its first playoff game in seven years. Expect the fans to be wild, and expect the Magic to get back to the kind of basketball that earned them five straight wins--and five straight covers--prior to Game 2. Take the points.
69-60 LAST 129 NBA SIDES | +380
13-8 IN LAST 21 TOR ATS PICKS | +435
HOUSTON @ TEXAS | 4/19 | 8:05 PM EDT
1:14 AM
Justin Verlander's splits speak for themselves. Last season he was 12-2 on the road with a 2.14 ERA. More importantly for this matchup, he went 2-0 at Globe Life Park with a 2.25 ERA. The Rangers are in the midst of a four-game win streak and are a tad overvalued. Lay the Juice.
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 MLB PICKS | +754
MINNESOTA -190
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE | 4/19 | 7:05 PM EDT
1:05 AM
Road favorites are usually not my go-to, but I love Twins starter Jose Berrios, who is 2-0 at Camden Yards with a 1.76 ERA, in this spot. He is far more comfortable at Camden Yards than the Orioles' own Alex Cobb (3-8, 4.73 ERA at that ballpark). The splits indicate the Twins should run away with this one. After losing three of four at home against the Blue Jays, Minnesota will start this series with a convincing victory Friday night.
16-7-1 IN LAST 24 MLB PICKS | +754
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIN ML PICKS | +119
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +105
N.Y. YANKEES -179
KANSAS CITY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 4/19 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:55 AM
I’ll be the first one to say that CC Sabathia doesn’t have the velocity he once had. That being said, in his season debut against the White Sox, his location was impeccable. In his last start at home against the Royals, he was more than a 3-1 favorite. Grabbing the Yankees at home facing an overvalued Royals team that has won five out of its last seven is a no-brainer. I’ll take the Bronx Bombers here.
BOSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 4/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
1:32 PM
A Tampa offense that's hitting the ball harder than any other team in baseball will face a starter in Eduardo Rodriguez who is prone to giving up fly balls. Fly balls that are hit hard tend to travel pretty far! Combine that with a Boston bullpen that currently has a 5.15 ERA, and I like the Rays at this price. If the Red Sox were the same team but named the Orioles the Rays would be at least -150 in this spot.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS | +39
3-0 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +300
OKLAHOMA CITY -8
PORTLAND @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 4/19 | 9:30 PM EDT
1:30 PM
The home team has been favored in each of the last five meetings, and it's gone 4-1 ATS in those five meetings. On the season Portland is 26-16-1 ATS at home and 34-19-1 ATS as a favorite, but it's only 21-20 ATS on the road, and 13-17 ATS as an underdog. As an underdog on the road, the Blazers are 9-15 ATS. Furthermore, the Thunder have played Portland at home twice this season, and they won both games by nine points.
67-40 IN LAST 107 NBA PICKS | +2289
2-1 IN LAST 3 OKC ATS PICKS | +89
Our 3 selections include the Raptors/Magic Under, the Indiana Pacers, and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Orlando game to go 'under' the total. The first two games of this series went 'under' the total. And that's been "par for the course" in this series, as these two teams also went 'under' in three of their four meetings in the regular season this year (and 13 of the last 18, dating back to 2014). The 'under' also falls into a super NBA Playoffs Totals system of mine which is 136-89 (60.4%) since 1991. Take the 'under.'
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Boston. The Pacers were up seven points at halftime in Game 1, and were up 11 points after 3 quarters in Game 2, but blew both leads. Thus, Indiana finds itself in an 0-2 hole in the series. The good news for Indy, however, is that it's an awesome 139-73-9 ATS off a loss, if it was rested, and playing with revenge vs. an opponent off a straight-up win. Take the Pacers to win (and cover) Game 3.
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Portland. The Thunder were blown out by 20 points in Game 2, and now return home for a "must win" game 3. We'll lay the points with the Thunder, as favorites of -3+ points, off a Playoff loss (as an underdog) by 20+ points, have cashed 68.4% since 1991. Take Oklahoma City. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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