Service Plays Monday 4/22/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 07:29 AM

Ben Burns

3* Detroit +12.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 07:29 AM

Spartan

3* Houston -2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 07:30 AM

Stephen Nover

3* TOM New York Mets / Philadelphia under 8.5

1* Dallas / Nashville over 5

2* Dallas -125

3* Houston -2.5

**dawggy** · 04-22-2019, 10:37 AM

TONY FINNBASEBALL PLAYS

FINN MON NITE BASEBALL HI-ROLLER 7-0
Game: (967) New York Yankees at (968) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees -111

View Analysis

PLAY: New York Ynakees -111 (good to -125)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Happ and Harvey
(967) New York Yankees at (968) Los Angeles Angels
There is little to no value on the New York Yankees, not across a full season of baseball, and entering tonight's event between the Yankees and Angels the 11-10 Bronx Bombers are in the red for those that have backed them them the first four weeks of the 2019 regular season.
A combination of 13 injuries in four weeks, a slow start by lefty J.A. Happ, and a game three time zones away from the Big Apple -- PLUS -- the opposing pitcher's name value has kept the books from positioning the Yankees as a juicy ML favorite in this Monday Night Baseball event in SoCal.

Happ enters the game without a win after four starts with an ERA of 7.23. The lefty has a 5.57 career ERA vs. the Angels and comes off a no-decision in the Yankees' win over the Red Sox last Wednesday. The start versus the Sox was, however, his best of the 2019 campaign. He allowed three earned runs over 6 1/3 innings.

Happ has scuffled execute his typically good command early in his starts. The change in venue

Happ didn't impress in his turns against the bottom of the AL East, Baltimore, but his ERA and his surface stats are deceiving. Happ has a solid swinging strike percentage and the majority of his batted ball with hard contact are a result of missing his target... e.g. his control has been subpar.

The warmer SoCal weather will be a plus for Happ. He has a history of better results in the warmer months and April on the east coast has resulted in most of his pitches being throw in damp and cool conditions (average temp in the mid-50s). First pitch in LA Monday night is expected to be perfect baseball weather with temps in the mid-70's.

The move from Toronto last July saw the 36-year-old register a 2.69 ERA over 63.2 innings. Happ moved from being sinkerball-heavy to four-seam happy after joining the Yankees. The change resulted in a 26.3% strikeout rate -- and no pitch resulted in more swings and misses than his fastball. One of the reasons for his early season struggles has been the cold temps and the venues he has pitched in. When Happ takes the mound in hitter-friendly venues, Yankee Stadium as an example, he will not rely on his fastball to the percentage he did late last season. The reason being it turns his ground ball to fly ball rate home run friendly.

The current Yankees lineup is not what most expected when the 2019 campaign saw the season open in late March. In truth unless you are an AL East follower, a Yankee faithful, or play in a half dozen fantasy baseball leagues, the New York lineup is almost unreconizable.

Happ recorded 7 quality starts in his 11 New York turns when he made his first pitch in pinstripes last September. His velocity last September returned in his last start against Boston and the left ready to continue his mid 30's rediscovery of a 25 percent K rate and career high swinging strike percentage.

Happ, across his last 20 starts, rates 20th in the Finn Factorfstarting pitcher rankings, with career bests in WHIP, K% and SwStr%. His ERA across those 20 starts is sub-3.00 with an xFIP of 4.36 against teams that rank in the top half of the majors in OPS. His matchup against the Angels on Monday night puts him in a position to not just record his first victory of the season but do so in impressive fashion.,

The other good news for Happ is that he will oppose former Mets All-Star right-hander Matt Harvey (0-2, 9.64).

Harvey, in a nutshell and despite his mid-90's fastball, isn't fooling even the most inexperienced bats. After a somewhat successful debut with the Angels the right-hander has been tossing batting practice. In a three-start stretch during which he has lost twice while posting a 10.05 ERA, -- he has allowed 18 earned runs and 22 hits in a total of just 12 2/3 innings.

When a former All-Star is tossing a four-seamer at 95-plus mph and not fooling hitters it is time to become a long or late inning reliever... because returning to success as a starter isn't going to happen. As mentioned, while he has still averaged 94 mph on his fastball, the exit velocity and hard contact percentage on Harvey batted balls is 93 mph. Harvey's Hard Hit percentage has climbed exponentially. In 2015 his hard contact percent was near elite... at 26.7%. Last year Harvey's HC rate was 38.9%.. and this year it is 42%.

The level money-line price point in this contest is one of the few times that the Yankees won't be -150 or more regardless of venue and opposing starting pitcher... This will be one of the few times you can catch a favorable Yankee matchup at a near pick'em investment and.... I pounce.

The Angels are slashing an absolute obscene .206/.299/.320 versus southpaws this season and have hit just five home runs in nearly 230 at-bats against lefties.

NEW YORK YANKEES -111

**dawggy** · 04-22-2019, 10:53 AM

HUDDLE UP

NBA 750,000* Lock:
Houston -2'

NBA High Roller Total:
Milwaukee/Detroit over 218

Best Bets:
Milwaukee +12
Houston/Utah over 213

MLB Grand Slam Lock:
Philadelphia Arrieta -107

Best Bets:

Triple Play: NY Yankees Happ -112
Double Play: Houston Peacock -179
Single Play: Detroit Boyd +185

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 11:33 AM

Goodfella

3* (NBA)

Houston -140

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 11:33 AM

JR ODONNELL

3* GOM

Nashville +110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 11:34 AM

Greg SHAKER

3* Houston / Utah under 214.5

**dawggy** · 04-22-2019, 02:40 PM

SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUPBASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (573) Milwaukee Bucks at (574) Detroit Pistons
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 218.0 (-110)

View Analysis

The Bucks have dominated the Pistons all season. The question here is whether the Pistons will be passive or aggressive. The evidence supports the latter.

Detroit is 7-0 OU (+10.36 ppg) as a home dog off a game as a dog when they lost at least four straight vs their opponent. Fitting in very nicely here is the fact that the Bucks are 7-0 OU (+19.64 ppg) off a win when they won at least three straight vs their opponent.

The Bucks also qualify for a league-wide multi-season, playoff-only system. It states that NBA teams are 11-0 OU (+15.0 ppg) in the playoffs when they have less than two days rest, they are off a road game, and they are facing a team they beat at least two straight.

In addition, the Pistons are 11-0 OU (+14.05 ppg) as a home dog with rest off a loss in which they scored at least 20% of their points from threes and 6-0 OU (+16.42 ppg) as a home dog off a loss in which they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

The key-player trends reveal that the Pistons are 7-0 OU (+11.86 ppg) as a dog after a game in which Andre Drummond had a plus/minus at least five points better than the team.

Detroit only shot 38.5% from the field in game three. Milwaukee, now up 3-0, can relax on defense. They are feeling unbeatable and the don’t need to play defense to beat the Pistons.

Since late 2018 Milwaukee is 11-0 OU as a favorite by at least seven points when they held their previous opponent to less than 40% shooting, going over by an average of 18.45 ppg.

The Bucks have a lot of subs that love to fire up threes in garbage time (Ilyasova, Hill and Mirotic). We are on the OVER.

MTi’s FORECAST: Bucks 123 Pistons 109
Game: (575) Houston Rockets at (576) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 214.0 (-104)

View Analysis

The Rockets shot 38.4% from the field in game three, but they prevailed 104-101. We expect a similar effort here. Houston is 0-13 OU (-12.35 ppg) with rest off a win as a dog in which they shot under 40% from the field.

The Rockets are also 0-10 OU (-10.50 ppg) on the road when the line is within 3 of pick with rest after a game that was tied five-plus times and 0-7 OU off a win as a dog in which they trailed after the third, staying under by a massive 20.29 ppg on the average.

Houston only had 19 assists in their game three win, and Harden dished out ten of them. This activates a key-player, playoff-only indicator. Houston is 0-8 OU (-13.12 ppg) in the playoffs after a game in which James Harden had at least half of the team’s assists.

It is also worth mentioning that the Rockets are 0-6 OU off a win as a dog in which James Harden shot under 45 percent was their high scorer, staying under by an average of 17.08 ppg.

Turning our attention to the Jazz, we find that they tend to play low scoring games when they have double-revenge. Utah is 0-10 OU as a rested dog after playing as a home favorite when they lost at least two straight vs their opponent. They have stayed under by an average of 16.9 ppg in this spot and this including an overtime game that stayed UNDER.

The Jazz have been sharing the ball on offense and this also points to the UNDER. Utah is 0-9 OU (-16.83 ppg) as a dog off a home game when they are off two games in which more than 65 percent of their field goals were assisted.

Finally, we have a couple of key-player indicators working. The Jazz are 0-8 OU (-11.56 ppg) at home when Donovan Mitchell scored a least 15 more points last game then he did two games ago
and 0-8 OU THIS season off a home loss in which Joe Ingles attempted more three pointers than two pointers, staying under by an average of a whopping 20.81 ppg. We make the play the UNDER.

MTi’s FORECAST: JAZZ 102 Rockets 93
Game: (575) Houston Rockets at (576) Utah Jazz
Date/Time: Apr 22 2019 10:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Utah Jazz 2.5 (-110)

View Analysis

Game three was a back-and-forth battle in which the Rockets just prevailed at the end. Now down 0-3 in the series, the Jazz effectively are playing for pride. We like the character of the Utah squad and we also think that the Rockets will take their foot off the gas after their victorious game three battle.

Since early THIS season Utah is a perfect 11-0 SU and 11-0 ATS with less than two days rest off a loss that was tied at least four different scores. They won straight up by an average of 17.82 ppg and covered by an average of 11.36 ppg. They were the underdog twice and they won both straight up; beating the Celtics 98-86 in Boston and the Warriors 108-103 at home.

On the other hand, the Rockets are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite off a game as a dog that was tied at least three times.

In game three, Donovan Mitchell lead the scoring for the Jazz, but he only shot 9-for-27 from the field. James Harden led the Rockets in scoring, but he was a brutal 3-for-20 from the field. Both of these point to a Jazz cover. Utah is 12-0 ATS after a game in which Donovan Mitchell shot under 45 percent but was their high scorer and the Rockets are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite off a game as a dog in which James Harden shot under 50 percent was their high scorer.

Continuing, we see that the Rockets are 0-9 ATS on the road off a win in which they shot under 40% from the field and 0-8 ATS with less than two days rest off a win in a road game after a win in which they trailed after each of the first three quarters.

Lastly, the Jazz are a resilient 10-0 ATS (+12.05 ppg) after a loss in which the number of free throws they missed was greater than the losing margin and a beast-mode-like 9-0 ATS (+14.61 ppg) as a dog with rest off a loss when they lost at least four straight vs their opponent. The Jazz won each of the last eight straight up and they were getting at least four points in every one of those wins. Impressive.

We would be very surprised if Houston was able to sweep here.

MTi’s FORECAST: JAZZ 102 Rockets 93

**TAWJR** · 04-22-2019, 02:41 PM

IS HUDDLE UP BEST BET IN BBALL DETROIT? SAYS MILW. PLUS 12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 03:39 PM

Sportsvipvegas 4/22

Detroit +183
Arizona +125
Baltimore +105
NYM -1 (+128)
Oakland -1 (+1-3)
Angels -105

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 03:40 PM

Dirty Bear Sports from cappertek

MLB:
HOU F5 -.5 -120 3u
MIL/STL F5 over 4.5 -120 1u
TEX/OAK F5 under 4.5 -110 1u

MLB Season: 16-16-2 50% -13.70 units

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 03:40 PM

Allen Eastman
7 Unit 1st half Hou -1
5 Unit Hou -3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-22-2019, 03:40 PM

Indian Cowboy
4 Unit over 219.5 Det/Mil

Service Plays Monday 4/22/19

Service Plays Monday 4/22/19

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