Thursday 4-25-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NBA

Thursday, April 25

Trend Report

Denver Nuggets
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Denver is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of San Antonio's last 25 games
San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 25


Denver @ San Antonio

Game 525-526
April 25, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
116.866
San Antonio
122.312
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Antonio
by 5 1/2
201
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Antonio
by 3
208 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Antonio
(-3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Western Conference First Round – Game 6

No. 2 Denver at No. 7 San Antonio (TNT, 8:10 p.m. ET) -- Seiries tied 1-1

Apr. 13 - Spurs (+5.5) 101 at Nuggets 96 (Under 210.5)
Apr. 16 - Nuggets (-7) 114 vs. Spurs 105 (Over 210.5)
Apr. 18 – Spurs (-4.5) 118 vs. Nuggets 108 (Over 208)
Apr. 20 – Nuggets (+3.5) 117 at Spurs 103 (Over 209)
Apr. 23 – Nuggets (-5.5) 108 vs. Spurs 90 (Under 210.5)

You could make a great argument that the Nuggets have picked up every must-win in this series thus far.

After falling behind following a Game 1 home loss, Denver kept itself out of an 0-2 hole with a huge fourth-quarter comeback. It kept from falling behind 3-1 by snapping a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio at the most opportune time, pouring in 117 points, their second-largest output in over a month.

It’s time to see if the veteran Spurs can follow suit and answer the call when it matters most.

Although All-Star center Nikola Jokic is having a productive series, Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray has been the catalyst in all three victories, fueling the Game 2 surge by scoring 21 of his 24 points in the final 12 minutes. After scoring just six points on 2-for-6 shooting in Game 3, head coach Michael Malone called him out and demanded more aggressiveness and consistency. He scored 24 points in Game 4 and 23 in Tuesday’s big swing game. For the series, he’s shot 53 percent in the wins (25-for-47), scoring at a clip of 23.7 points per game, and is 10-for-29 (34.4 %) in the losses, averaging just 11.5 points and shooting 2-for-11 from beyond the arc.

Does San Antonio have anyone who can similarly drive its team’s success? On paper, there are options. At home, the Spurs are rightfully favored by a 3-spot. It’s time to see how much fight they have.

It appears the Spurs have no choice but to use Jakob Poeltl to counter the size and skill of Jokic, but they’ve got to find a more impactful way to disrupt Murray if they want to get back to Denver for a Game 7. Derrick White has been the x-factor for San Antonio, averaging 26 points in its wins on over 70 percent shooting while managing 13.3 points in the losses, which includes a really rough past two games. Malone’s tweak has involved utilizing Gary Harris on White more, and the defensive standout has made life extremely difficult.

Since most playoff series ultimately swing on adjustments, my belief that Gregg Popovich would find ways to help the Spurs impose their will over a Nuggets team that lacks significant playoff experience outside of Paul Millsap hasn’t come to fruition. Although Pop had a 9-1 mark in Game 5s dating back to 2013, Malone posted his first victory this deep into a series in his first game. Denver made him look great, leading by as many as 30 points in the fourth quarter. This will be his first close-out game in the head seat. Popovich has a pretty strong record in these too.

The veteran coach quipped that Game 5 was his “best Bobby Fischer” in a nod to Malone saying that he feels like he’s matching wits with a chess grand master. It’s subtle, but Pop sees what’s happening here. The opposing coach has done more to help his team win than he has managed to.

What we’ve found out over the past week is that Malone has more talented options and has been able to press the right buttons himself, earning full credit with tweaks like bringing Torrey Craig into the starting lineup as a better glue guy in this series than Will Barton, who has been liberated to be more of a scorer off the bench. We’ll see if Popovich has a wrinkle up his sleeve since his supporting cast has typically played well at home, increasing his options.

NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes in San Antonio’s ability to pick itself up based on its recent body of work.

“The Spurs have done a solid job of bouncing back recently off a mediocre offensive performance. San Antonio has won in six of its last seven instances after being held to less than 100 points, while topping the 120-point mark five times in this span,” said Rogers. “On the season, San Antonio has won three of four times at home off a road loss in which it was held to fewer than 100 points. On the flip side, Denver enters Game 6 with losses in eight of its last 11 games in the road underdog role, while trying to close their first playoff series away from the Mile-High City since the famous upset of the SuperSonics in Seattle back in 1994.”

We’re about to found out how these Nuggets handle prosperity, not to mention getting an early glimpse at the type of killer instinct they’re packing. Denver has certainly proven resilient in this series and will be playing at home this weekend regardless of tonight’s outcome since it will be flying home to either prepare for a Game 7 against the Spurs or a Game 1 of a Western Conference semifinal clash with the Trail Blazers.

The Nuggets haven’t defeated the Spurs in a playoff series since 1985, dropping four straight matchups, and they haven’t won consecutive games at the AT&T Center since Dec. 2009-Jan. 2010. San Antonio managed to upset Golden State in last year’s Game 4 of the first round to avoid being eliminated at home and have only been beaten once on their home floor to end a series since ’10.

Of course, a lot of that Spurs nostalgia has to be put to bed since Popovich is one of the few constant common denominators. Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli have been in a lot of the battles, but DeMar DeRozan’s presence and counting on kids like White, Bryn Forbes and Poeltl as much as they are gives this a much different feel.

De Rozan had a brutal showing in Game 5, looking lethargic and a step slow. He’s got to impose his will to make life easier on teammates and should be the most dynamic scoring threat on the floor if he’s right. The standout guard acquired in the Kawhi Leonard trade was a major catalyst in San Antonio’s inability to be remotely competitive earlier this week, so you can imagine his last 24 hours watching game film and preparing to redeem himself haven’t been pleasant. The Spurs went scoreless for key stretches and he shot just 40 percent, finishing with a series-low 17 points after missing nine of 15 shots. His energy level must improve.

After being significantly outclassed by the Nuggets’ bench in Denver, surrendering 38 points as Barton, Monte Morris and Malik Beasley all hit double-figures, Spurs’ reserves must answer the call at home. That starts with the vets, Mills and Belinelli, but must also feature an explosion from Rudy Gay and solid contributions from the likes of shooter Davis Bertans or rookie x-factor Lonnie Walker, the team’s most athletic scorer. The ‘over’ is up 3-2 in this series, but the ‘under’ had been on a 19-6 run in Denver games since the All-Star break. The ‘under’ was on a 16-5 run in San Antonio’s final 21 regular-season meetings, so there’s a chance both teams revert to their identities in an elimination game and this winds up the lowest-scoring game of a series that has produced at least 197 points in every contest. Game 7 would be played Saturday night in Denver.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Second Round Cheat Sheet

Key:
A – Atlantic
M – Metropolitan
C – Central
P – Pacific
W – Wild Card

Eastern Conference

2A Boston vs. 2W Columbus

Bruins: 49-24-9, 107 points
Blue Jackets: 47-31-4, 98 points

Season series: These two teams didn't meet this season until March as they hooked up three times in the final three weeks. Columbus outlasted Boston in the first matchup at Nationwide Arena, 7-4 on March 12 as the Blue Jackets notched five unanswered goals after falling behind, 1-0. The Bruins captured the final two meetings as Boston edged Columbus, 2-1 in overtime at TD Garden on March 16, followed by a 6-2 blowout in central Ohio on April 2. Dating back to February 2016, these squads have split 10 meetings, while the OVER has cashed nine times.

Previous playoff outcome: The Bruins staved off the Maple Leafs in seven games of the first round for the third time in seven seasons to advance to the semifinals for the second straight season. Last season, Boston won the opener of the conference semifinals against Tampa Bay, but eventually dropped the final four games to the Lightning. The Blue Jackets pulled off the biggest shocker in the opening round by sweeping the top-seeded Lightning in four games to advance to the semifinals for the first time in franchise history. Boston and Columbus are meeting in the playoffs for the first time ever as the Blue Jackets have been eliminated by the eventual Stanley Cup champion each of the last two seasons.


Western Conference

3C St. Louis vs. 1W Dallas

Blues: 45-28-9, 99 points
Stars: 43-32-7, 93 points

Season series: Although Dallas finished below St. Louis in the Central division standings, the Stars took three of four meetings from the Blues this season. Dallas grabbed a pair of victories at St. Louis, while limiting the Blues to one goal in each of those wins at Enterprise Center. The Stars ripped the Blues, 5-2 at American Airlines Center on February 21, while the lone win in the series by St. Louis came at Dallas on January 12 in a 3-1 triumph. The UNDER cashed in three of four meetings, while the Stars are 5-1 in the past six matchups with the Blues since December 2017.

Previous playoff outcome: The Stars and Blues each knocked off division counterparts in the opening round. Dallas eliminated division champion Nashville in six games, while St. Louis put away Winnipeg in six games as the Blues won three road contests in the series. Dallas is playing in the second round of the playoffs for only the second time since 2009 as its last appearance in this round came against St. Louis in 2016. The Blues downed the Stars in seven games of that conference semifinal series, capped off by a 6-1 blowout at Dallas in Game 7. St. Louis is seeking its first appearance in the conference finals since 2016, when the Blues lost to the Sharks in six games.


2P San Jose vs. 2W Colorado

Sharks: 46-27-9, 101 points
Avalanche: 38-30-14, 90 points

Season series: The Sharks took care of the Avalanche this season by capturing all three matchups. San Jose edged Colorado at Pepsi Center in early January, 5-4, followed by a 4-3 win on March 1 at SAP Center and a 5-2 home triumph on April 6. All three meetings easily went OVER the total, while the Sharks have won nine of the past 10 home matchups with the Avalanche since February 2013.

Previous playoff outcome: San Jose shocked defending Western Conference champion Vegas in seven games as the Sharks erased a 3-1 series deficit and climbed out of a 3-0 third period hole to beat the Golden Knights, 4-3 in overtime. The Sharks have advanced to the conference semifinals for the third time in four seasons as they seek their first Stanley Cup final appearance since 2016. The Avalanche are playing in the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2008 when Colorado was swept by Detroit. Colorado and San Jose last met in the playoffs in the 2010 first round as the Sharks won in six games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1Dallas -2 St Louis
ST LOUIS are 16-6 ATS (11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season in the current season.

3Columbus -4 Boston
COLUMBUS are 21-10 ATS (14.9 Units) in road games against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 25

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DALLAS (47-33-0-8, 102 pts.) at ST LOUIS (49-29-0-10, 108 pts.) - 4/25/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 150-145 ATS (-57.1 Units) after a 3 game unbeaten streak since 1996.
ST LOUIS is 34-17 ATS (+7.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-18 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 16-6 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 10-6 ATS (+17.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents this season.
DALLAS is 220-241 ATS (+512.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 7-6 (+0.9 Units) against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-6-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

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COLUMBUS (51-31-0-4, 106 pts.) at BOSTON (53-27-0-9, 115 pts.) - 4/25/2019, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 5-4-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+7.4 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Thursday, April 25

Trend Report

Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Columbus's last 21 games
Columbus is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Columbus is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Columbus's last 15 games on the road
Columbus is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Columbus is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Columbus's last 10 games when playing Boston
Columbus is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Columbus is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Bruins
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Boston is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Boston is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games at home
Boston is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Columbus
Boston is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 10 games when playing Columbus
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Columbus
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus

Dallas Stars
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
St. Louis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games at home
St. Louis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Dallas
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, April 25


Columbus @ Boston

Game 3-4
April 25, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Columbus
13.333
Boston
11.834
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Columbus
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-155
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Columbus
(+135); Over

Dallas @ St. Louis

Game 1-2
April 25, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
12.193
St. Louis
11.163
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-155
5
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+135); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DONNY ACTION

MLB LOS ANGELES ANGELS ‑110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Golden Lock Sports

MLB MIAMI MARLINS +180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MaxActionSports

NHL COLORADO AVALANCHE +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pure Lock

MLB HOUSTON ASTROS ‑150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tys Terrific Tips

NHL ST. LOUIS BLUES ‑155

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mikey Sports

MLB PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES ‑190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ace / V.I.P.

NBA SAN ANTONIO SPURS ‑3