Service Plays Saturday 4/27/19

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The Spot Player MLB (97-61 season...22-8 this week)

2* A's
2* Cubs
2* Dodgers
2* Mariners

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Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
SDP/WAS F5 OVER 4.5 -110 3u
CINN F5 ML +105 1u
CHC/ARI F5 OVER 5.5 1u

MLB Season: 22-19-2 54% -9.55 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

3 Units - #929 Yankees (+105) over San Fran *4 EST
The Yankees are relishing their role as underdogs and having fun. While most teams strive to have double digits in base hits, New York has it on the injured list, yet, manager Aaron Boone is using that to get his team to show up and play hard every day.
The Yankees have won nine of 11 and are averaging 5.9 RPG in this stretch, If they can knock around Madison Bumgarner around like last night in a 7-3 win over San Francisco, they can certainly do the same to fellow Giants lefty Derek Holland. J.A. Happ will take the ball for New York and he faces a lineup that is scoring a mere 3.1 RPG. Consider the Yanks with Happ is 17-3 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game the last two seasons. (Team's Record)

6 Units - #928 Seattle (-115) over Texas *9:10 EST

Seattle's been an early-season surprise, thanks to an offense that averages over 6.0 RPG and hits home runs like the Arizona Cardinals draft quarterbacks in the first round. #regularly The Mariners have been bombs away and have EIGHT batters with at least five long balls. Just taking those M's players at a minimum if five homers each, that is more than 23 other teams season total.
Seattle's lumber company will trust Mike Leake (2-2, 4.30) will keep them in the game long enough to build a lead.
Texas starter Mike Minor and the teams he pitched for have never beaten Seattle in five tries and he has 5.31 ERA against Seattle. Leake had a poor outing last season against Texas, otherwise, he has 2.92 ERA vs. the Rangers in a half dozen starts.
Even if Minor pitches fair, the Texas bullpen is 13th in the AL in ERA. With Leake and Seattle 20-11 vs. an AL team with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse the last two years and the M's 9-0 versus AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs a contest, the Mariners sail to victory.

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WORLDS WORST PICKER

Super Pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Regular Picks: Oakland Athletics Kansas City Royals Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs

Play ON the OPPOSITES

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Adam Thompson

Philadelphia +6.5

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASEBALL PLAYS

• LATE PITCH MLB BIG TICKET (5-1)
  Game: (927) Texas Rangers at (928) Seattle Mariners
  Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 9:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Total Over 8.0 (-113)
  
  View Analysis
  
  The Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks are varied in tonight's over-under in the Seattle and Texas contest at SafeCo Field. Depending on which shop or shops you do business with you will get either an 8 or 8.,5 for the contest. I have positioned this play to be good as a Big Ticket 5% release to 9 runs.
  ---
  PLAY: Over the Total of 8 runs (good to 9 runs)
  5% game rating
  LIST PITCHERS: Minor and Leake if your book requires you to do so on totals.
  (927) Texas Rangers at (928) Seattle Mariners
  Despite Major League Baseball's desire to speed up the game and inserting one hundred and one new ways to do so --- the company that rules North America in the summer wants a shrinking strike zone with the result of drawing more people to the ball park with high-scoring energy -- Without specific conditions that fit each starting pitcher as well as venue variables (wind) playing to the UNDER this summer will be test of one's ability to stomach multiple innings of watching pitchers succeed and fail depending on their strand rate.
  Minor comes off a start against the all-or-nothing Oakland A's offense in which he allowed four runs over six innings. The veteran right-hander is at 31-year-old what he was in his prime -- a middling arm with the aim of keeping hitters off balance and as a result limiting home runs.
  
  Minor sported a 2.60 ERA entering his last turn, a Monday night game versus the A's, with peripherals that were not as stable as his 2018 campaign, that resulted in a 4.18 ERA.
  
  Minor has changed his pitch mix as he has lost Velo. The lefty approaches hitters with a larger percentage of changeup and less of his "forgot to cut" slider. The result in April saw Minor increased IF/FB ratio (pop-ups) and lower his line drive percentage -- good news for Texas Rangers fans that will have to endure a rebuilt of the team this summer. However, the Rangers' southpaws increase in pop-ups and less exit velocity, on average, per at-bat is smoke and mirrors.
  
  Minor’s .211 BABIP is simply unsustainable and should increase and note that in his first month of starts this 2019 campaign his balls hit in play luck has been monumental -- recorded a 30% double play rate (nearly three times the major league average and twice as high as Minor’s previous career best mark).
  
  Note for those that believe 30 percent is a "who-cares" moment - and is less than....The entire 2018 season there were a mere 2 Major League Baseball pitchers - who threw 100+ innings in total -- that ended the season with a double play rate higher than 17%.
  
  And even as pedestrian as Minor's strand ratio is this season -- at 83.3% and below league average -- Minor can't sustain that rate with the hard contact he allows.
  
  In addition, Minor's best outing of the season, essentially skewed Minor's surface numbers this season; e.g. the Texas lefty tossed a complete game shutout against the Angels that included seven strikeouts. Minor earned himself 15 swinging strikes in the win. There isn't an offense in the American League that has been smaller than the LA Angels when facing left-handed pitching this year. Minor faces the league's best offense versus lefties after a month of play -- that being the Seattle Mariners.
  
  Mike Leake surrendered three runs to the soft-hitting Kansas City Royals two starts back (5 IP, 5H, 4R, 2BB, and 4K) and in the Year of the Long Ball, even at SafeCo, the Mariners are going to score runs, especially when facing middling left-handed starters. Leake came out of the Kansas City win in mid-April with a 2-0 mark and a 2.92 ERA. It included 13 Ks in his first two 2019 outings.
  
  Leake waived and said hello to his fan base in his last start -- a return to who we all know and love -- fly ball-heavy right-hander Mike Leake. He allowed three homers -- and it isn't the first time this season --- but the second for the second and in this event to a lineup that doesn't have home run power save Mike Trout.
  
  Leake will post uglier numbers when throwing outside of SafeCo (eight home runs in just 29 1/3 frames this season on the road). Tonight Leake faces a group of Texas bats that have had success against him despite his mirage of a career record when facing Texas. Outside of the long swings of a young Texas batting order slugger Gallo looks forward to tonight's batting practice as do veterans Hunter Pence (15-for-36 lifetime vs Leake and Shin-Soo Choo (7-for-20 with two 400-plus foot career blasts).
  
  With Scott Barry calling balls and strikes neither of the two starting pitchers will come close to executing a QS and both hand the ball to the manager before the sixth inning in a high scoring contest.
  
  The Mariners have faced 26 left-handed pitchers across the first month of the season -- in a pitcher-friendly venue in 20 of the 26 and have slashed a MLB high of .298/.404/.577 with an OPS of .981
  
  OVER the TOTAL of 8 runs

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (919) Cleveland Indians at (920) Houston Astros
  Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 4:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Greek
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Cleveland Indians +126
  
  View Analysis
  
  Bieber fever continues for us...we have it and the only prescription is more Lindor (or cowbell). The team who shall not be named has already won as plus dogs 2 days running and now the Astros run Peacock out there to face what must be the best 5th starter going, right?
  He got whipped around his last start after a very solid start to the season...but optimistically I think that helps us get a better more profitable number rather than probably a pickem or Bieber slight favorite.
  Peacock boasts an FIP/xFIP an entire point higher each than Bieber and both guys have plus sliders they will use a bunch to get batters out...and while the rest of the arsenal for each is mediocre...Peacock has a curve and change that are far more negative than the Biebs.
  I think the Indians get to the others bullpen first and close out a 3rd straight win in Houston....while seemingly shocking getting Lindor back is really a bigger deal than someone coming back as an everyday starter for most any team and it carries them here again today!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Assassin Sports (MLB) - Giants/Yankees Over 7 (-127)

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Exodus to Black
2-1 yesterday NYY-126 W, Col+150 W, TX+130 L
Today
NBA
Toronto-6 (released yesterday)

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Stats Analytics Sports

MLB
Top Play - 3* Blue Jays/Athletics Under 9.5 (-115)

1* Athletics -103
1* Indians +134
1* Brewers +123

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Seabass 1st report : 300 stars, 300 stars game under , 400 reds , 400 twins RL, 400 astros , 400 rays , 400 a’s

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Doc mlb 4/27


3 Unit-atlanta-120

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Jason Sharpe mlb 4-27

7 Unit-laa angels-115

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) St. Louis Cardinals
  Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 2:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Total Over 9.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Major v. Hudson
  Wind straight out to left and left center at 15 to 20 mph...bats heating up for the Reds as well and hitting the stride we all figured. Also value on the Reds...will be a 3% there too...Hudson <<Mahle in most all facets.
  
• Game: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) St. Louis Cardinals
  Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 2:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Cincinnati Reds 1.5 (-158)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (901) Cincinnati Reds at (902) St. Louis Cardinals
  Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 2:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Cincinnati Reds +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

Toronto -6.5