Service Plays Saturday 4/27/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

4:05 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. San francisco giants

pick: New york yankees (-102)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. New york mets

pick: Milwaukee brewers (+120)

risk: 11 units

7:20 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Atlanta braves

pick: Atlanta braves (-118)

risk: 11 units

7:35 pm est nba
philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto raptors

pick: Philadelphia 76ers +6.5 (-102)

risk: 11 units

10:00 pm est nba
san antonio spurs vs. Denver nuggets

pick: San antonio spurs +6 (-103)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFAC 1000 series move. Toronto -250

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hackman
stars 130
jackets 125

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASEBALL PLAYS

• LATE PITCH SAT MLB PRIVATE PLAY
  Game: (911) Chicago Cubs at (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
  Date/Time: Apr 27 2019 8:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Greek
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Over 10.0 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Over the Total of 10 runs (good to 11)
  4% game rating
  
  LIST PITCHERS: Darvish and Godley
  (911) Chicago Cubs at (912) Arizona Diamondbacks
  The Diamondbacks and the Cubs are center stage in the desert tonight... a hitter-friendly Chase Field will have the roof closed in tonight’s' contest and scheduled home plate umpire Bill Welke, dating back to the 2015 season when eight of his first nine games went OVER the closing bookmakers TOTAL has the smallest strike out to walk ratio of all active MLB umpires during that time span. Welke will, at time offer the low strike to hard throwers that have a 50 percent fastball usage per game.. but that isn't the case in tonight’s contest with two pitchers that do their imitation of Maddox and grind out strikes on the black.
  A quick but concise review of tonight’s' starters paint the landscape of tonight’s' contest. Yu Darvish continues to struggle with his command. In his last start, a week ago this past Saturday, he left the game after five innings having allowed three earned runs while walking three -- including two home runs. The Diamondbacks batting order is susceptible to secondary pitches.. change ups, off-speed breaking balls and splitters... but only those that are quality offerings and at some point appear to be in the strike zone.. and this isn't something that Darvish has been able to sustain in April, for longer in truth, dating back to his shortened and injury filled 2018 campaign.
  
  Those how are all-season clients and receive my daily MLB analysis know that I don't offer much value to surface numbers, e.g. ERA and WHIP. In Darvish's case his unattractive ERA of 5.96 is in fact in line with his xFIP of 5.07.
  
  Darvish's home run to fly ball ratio is ridiculously high.. and there is little doubt that the percentage will fall as the season progresses, as his HR/FB rate checks in at over 30 percent. Yes, three of every 10 fly balls off Darvich's opposing batters have resulted in home runs. When you catch the inner 30 percent of home plate too many times big boy hitters will take you yard... this being the case for Darvish.
  
  Darvish opened the season with a chance to stick it in the ear, and other orifices of his former team the Texas Rangers on Saturday, but couldn’t throw a quality strike if his life depended on it. He surrendered 3 runs on 2 hits and issued 7 walks while striking out 4 in just 2.2 innings of work.
  
  The season opener for Darvish was disturbing for the Cubbies coaching staff and fan base.. and considering how poorly he performed in 2018 it shouldn't have been. The rest of the 2019 April story doesn't get better. First note that Darvish made just 8 starts as season ago. And when he did start he was a play against.. and much to the same form as this first month of this year. When Vu took the pill to the hill a year ago he had major command issues... when Darvish has taken the hill in the first inning of Cubbie contests he has had... again... significant issues spotting his arsenal.
  
  His 4.73 BB/9 a year ago looks good compared to this 2019 early results. After his season opening start his ratio checked in at 23.63 BB/9.
  
  Much of the same can be said of Dbacks righty Zack Godley. His 2017 season, what some called a break-out campaign, is best described as an aberration. Time and time again, last season and early on across the first month of this season, Godley was bailed out by the D-backs offense.
  
  He has zero command of his best pitch and less with his secondary offerings. He has already failed to make it past four innings in an event this season in which he tossed 98 pitches while allowing four runs and a season-high four walks.
  
  The 2018 Zack Godley is what the 2019 Godley will be... and all things being equal is. Over 178.1 innings of work, he recorded a 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 9.38 K/9, and 4.09 BB/9. And those surface numbers are all in line with the important sabermetrics that are a better measure of a players talent and pay grade. Godley's 4.18 SIERA heading into tonight's game is as good as it will get this season. It does, in small fashion, project some unfortunate luck for the Arizona righty. And his .324 BABIP allowed and 67.5% strand rate equal disaster moving forward. Yes, even Godley will experience some regression to the mean but not to the degree in which he is backable.. especially if he is anything less than 1.5 to 1 on the money line.
  
  Godley is a pick'em tonight for two reasons. First he and his mates are at home and secondly because Darvish no longer receives the bookmakers shade he once did. Godley's base on balls rate is nearly 10 percent higher than his disappointing 2018 numbers, meaning he is walking 1 more batter per 9 innings than he did in 2017 and close to his 2018 numbers. Most unbackable is his 38.4% hard contact rate last season - well above his 32.2% in 2017 - and equal to what opposing bats have hit him for so far in 2018.
  
  Just watching Godley pitch this year has been painful. He isn't comfortable on the mound, off the mound, and appears to be mocking a man/women who is tweaking on Meth... he is herky-jerky in everything he does and... bottom line... has little to no faith in what he is producing in terms of quality offerings to his catcher.
  
  He isn't working the bottom of the strike zone and his ground ball percentage has rose nearly seven percent which has resulted in hard contact increasing nearly the same rate.
  
  Godley's o-swing, contact, and hard hit rates reflect those of last season. The difference is Godley still had some form of swagger a year ago and took the mound with positive posture.. This simply isn't the case.. currently.
  
  OVER the TOTAL of 10 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ZACK CIMINI

toronto -6.5
denver under 209
colorado rockies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

Denver -6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wise Guy Insider

MLB 8:10 pm Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 110 for 1 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top Dog System -
Sat, Apr 27 (Premium)

Profit! 3/6 underdogs won yesterday
Apr 27
Top Dog Underdog Picks and Staking for Sat, Apr. 27:
Here are the underdogs to bet on (and how much) today, according to our Top Dogs System (I use decimal lines and always bet the “moneyline” - if a team wins the game. No spreads).

5* BALTY
7* PITT
9* MIAMI
11* SAN DIEGO
8* DETROIT
4* CINCINNATTI

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle

SATURDAY

NBA BASKETBALL
200* Play San Antonio +6 over Denver
200* Play Philadelphia +6.5 over Toronto

===
NHL HOCKEY
200* Play Dallas +130 over Saint Louis
200* Play Columbus +135 over Boston

===
MLB BASEBALL
200* Play Colorado +115 over Atlanta
200* Play Kansas City +110 over Los Angeles Angels

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ExclusiveVipSports
Pick: Oakland Athletics ML (-104)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lekota Daily Picks


MLB 3:07 pm Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays under 9 for 1 units




MLB 4:05 pm Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros Cleveland Indians 118 for 2 units




MLB 4:05 pm Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -133 for 1 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog
Game: Los Angeles Angels (925) @ Kansas City Royals (926)
Time: Saturday 04/27 7:15 PM Eastern
Pick: Los Angeles -112 (moneyline)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TweetyDimesPicks
Denver / San Antonio under 209

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Elijah Wilson
Here are The Plays for Today
NBA:
TORONTO -6 {4 stars}
MLB:
BLUE JAYS +100 {3 stars}
OVER 9 Oakland/blue jays {3 stars}




Parlay: 3 parlays each 2 teams and each for 1.5 stars
(1) Toronto-6/Blue Jays+1.5
(2) Toronto-6/Over 9
(3) Blue jays+100/Over 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JM
Pythagorean system plays
Washington 6*
Cincinnati 4.5*