Service Plays Sunday 4/28/19

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (965) Tampa Bay Rays at (966) Boston Red Sox
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Under 8.5 (-112)
  
  View Analysis
  
  This is still a solid play at 8, just with a potential for a push...would play it closer to a 2 or 3% play if you're only offered 7.5 for some reason.
  Couple of monsters on the mound this afternoon in Beantown, very rare Chris Sale takes the mound for his squad and faces a taller, lankier fella on the opposing mound...but Tyler Glasnow is just that..
  These 2 guys come into this game with almost exactly polar opposite first months to the season...especially as far as the old school stats read...
  Sale- 0-4 in 5 starts with a 7.43 ERA
  Glasnow - 4-0 in 5 starts with an AL leading 1.53 ERA
  Hard not to be discouraged by what Sale has shown us thus far this season...but I personally find it quite impossible to think he won't to some extent normalize his lifelong large sample size numbers and slough off this terrible WS hangover start...that by the way isn't nearly as bad once dug into analytically as it appears or when he says in the post game "I just suck right now".
  Sale's objective stats still smart from the 7 innings and 12 earned runs he allowed in the 2 opening starts against Toronto and Seattle...and while I'm not dismissing by any means...he has improved as well as been hit with an absurd BABIP over .400!
  Glasnow and his excellent early start actually pans out as true...his ERA is phenomenal but his FIP/xFIP split is still a swell 2.66/3.33. With how unbelievably hungover the Sox offense has been they won't be excited to see this nasty plus plus fastball coming at them all day...and while Sale may not be completely cured of the doldrums...he can keep up to the tune of 3 or less run for his outing in my opinion. With a backing of out Under trend at 46-15 now since last year as Well I find this spot to excellent with the pitching matchup in question!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3*
Kansas City / LA ANGLES over 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODONNELL

3*
Houston / Cleveland over 8.5


3*
San Jose / Colorado over 6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3*
ASTROS/INDIANS OVER 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MidAmerican Sports

MLB
Reds +132
Rays +135
Angels/Royals Over 9

[wardywins]

Stephen Nover

3* Kansas City / LA ANGLES 9

over or under ? Thanks Bud

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hackman
Avalanche 125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Rusk


SAN FRANCISCO +110


N.Y. YANKEES @ SAN FRANCISCO | 4/28 | 4:05 PM EDT
8:50 AM
A perfect time to bet against the New York Yankees. Overvalued alone just because the Bronx Bombers are always a public backed team, we see an extreme case as they are in the midst of a great road run. Winning five out of six across the country in interleague play, the Yankees are due for regression. Giants Dereck Rodriguez carries a lifetime sub 3 ERA and should have no problem with a depleted Yankees lineup. No Judge, Stanton, Hicks and Tulowitzki goes a long way. Giants will take this one.

24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269


ATLANTA -160


COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 4/28 | 1:20 PM EDT
8:48 AM
The Braves are facing a sweep against the sub-.500 Rockies at home. It’s a matter of time until these bats wake up and I like Kevin Gausman to get his act together against a team that ranks outside the top 20 in runs, walks and strikeouts. Rockies Tyler Anderson has given up five, six and five runs respectively this season. Sunday afternoon is not the day to get his 12.00 ERA season back on track. Braves take this one.

24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
7-3 IN LAST 10 ATL ML PICKS | +414


BOSTON -149


TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 4/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
8:47 AM
If I would have told you Chris Sale is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA a few months into the season you would think I’m lying. Enough is enough. Chris Sale is Chris Sale. Getting a price at -150 is a gift. The last three outings at home against the Rays he has been given starting pitcher odds all more than -200. At -150 we are getting an incredible discount for a multitude of reasons. Look for the Red Sox at home Sunday afternoon to give Tyler Glasnow his third straight loss against Boston.

24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
3-1 IN LAST 4 TB ML PICKS | +248

2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +90


CINCINNATI +120


CINCINNATI @ ST. LOUIS | 4/28 | 2:15 PM EDT
8:46 AM
Oddly enough Reds ace Sonny Gray has had a much better career on the road than at home. Coming in with an ERA .87 lower on the road in 160 starts shows this data shouldn’t be taken lightly. Also day games he comes in lowest at 3.19 ERA. Both these statistics make me feel confident in taking the Reds as the underdog on the road Sunday afternoon.

24-9 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS | +1269
2-1 IN LAST 3 CIN ML PICKS | +155

3-2 IN LAST 5 STL ML PICKS | +91

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


HOUSTON +5.5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/28 | 3:30 PM EDT
9:11 AM
Houston has been waiting for this series all year. Golden State comes in banged up and with less of a break than the rested Rockets, a team that beat the Warriors in three of four regular season matchups, including once as a 12-point underdog and another at +8.5. Houston can take advantage of added health and rest and win on Sunday, but take the points just in case.

83-63-1 IN LAST 147 NBA ATS PICKS | +1337
5-3 IN LAST 8 GS ATS PICKS | +172

5-4 IN LAST 9 HOU ATS PICKS | +57


OAKLAND -116


OAKLAND @ TORONTO | 4/28 | 1:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:19 PM
Chris Bassitt had a great first start, allowing two hits over five scoreless innings. He did give up four walks, but only four teams have drawn fewer walks than the Blue Jays, who are also batting .206 at home all season. The A's have been one of the top road-hitting teams, averaging a robust 6.2 runs per game.


CHI. CUBS -116


CHI. CUBS @ ARIZONA | 4/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:00 PM
You don't see such dominance by a lineup over an individual pitcher as large as the Cubs against D'backs Sunday starter Luke Weaver. Sunday's Cubs projected lineup is a lifetime 37-of-82 (.451) with four HR and 17 RBI lifetime. Arizona has been damaging against left-handed pitching, which offers some pause on the Cubs with Jose Quintana. But Quintana, in his last three starts, is 3-0 with two runs allowed over 21 innings, three walks and 25 strikeouts.

15-10 IN LAST 25 CHC ML PICKS | +438

5-2 IN LAST 7 ARI ML PICKS | +324


ATLANTA -152


COLORADO @ ATLANTA | 4/28 | 1:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:46 PM
In three starts at home, Kevin Gausman has a 2.45 ERA and .141 average allowed. He faces a Rockies offense that has been abysmal on the road. Meanwhile, Colorado throws LHP Tyler Anderson, who's been disappointing and banged up and Sunday takes on a Braves team that's damaged southpaws to the tune .316 batting with an OPS of .945. The price is reasonable all things considered.

20-5 IN LAST 25 ATL ML PICKS | +1757

14-8 IN LAST 22 COL ML PICKS | +409

[Can'tPickAWinner]

over or under ? Thanks Bud

Stephen Nover

3* Kansas City / LA ANGLES over 9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB(Bob Balfe)
12:10 PM EST
Rotation #953-954
Mets -120 over Brewers
Mets/Brewers Over 8.5 runs
Matz/Gonzalez
Gio Gonzalez is getting his first start this year for the Brewers. The last few games have been high scoring and I think we will have another one with two left handers on the mound. Both of these teams have hit lefties well. Gonzalez is on the decline in his career and with this game being at only -120 the Mets have great value at home. If all goes well the Mets will jump out to the early lead and we will have a shot to hit both. The Mets have a bad bullpen which leaves the door open for the Brewers to get late runs to help our total. This is a good spot to plays side and total. No parlays. Take the Mets and the Over.

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (959) Cincinnati Reds at (960) St. Louis Cardinals
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 2:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cincinnati Reds 1.5 (-160)
  
  View Analysis
  
  There are so many damned trends supporting the Reds today it's almost too much...as I dug deeper and deeper into the foxhole I was afraid I may not be able to escape...and scared it it all too perfect...
  1) Sonny Gray - fits out FIP model almost to a T
  Quick quiz...who has the MLB's lowest FIP but has a bagel in the win column in 5 starts....well if it ain't Sonny Gray this was a terrible riddle, right? He sits at a 2.00 FIP while 0-3 in the record books through 5 solid starts. He also has accumulated 1 whole WAR before a month of the season is over placing him in company of just 10 starters...and they combine for 23 wins amongst the 10 of them...yet again just hard luck Sonny without a win
  2) teams in the last game of the series on the road as a dog inside the division are 6 of the last 7 on the run line when they won by double digits and lost by 3 or less leading to the rubber match....for an ROI of 41%! 5-3 SU for an excellent 35% ROI.
  3) we'll just stick with 3 for conciseness sake...Jack Flaherty
  His starts and innings identical to Gray...but with a 2-1 record and his inflated ERA at 5.21 bears out CORRECT actually as his FIP is 3 full points north of his opponent today. His HR/FB rate is stupid high at 30% and can't stay there...but the Reds are a HR hitting team if there ever was one...this should look a ton more like Friday and not yesterday...and maybe Sonny even gets a W to go with his handful of quality starts!
  
• Game: (959) Cincinnati Reds at (960) St. Louis Cardinals
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 2:15 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Cincinnati Reds +135
  
  View Analysis
  
  most of this is written in the write up for the RL play...
  
  Gray v. Flaherty
  Reds get the rubber game and hard luck Sonny gets himself a W on paper!
  
  Run line feels like the safer play here with more precedent...but the Reds bats should also certainly give the Cards a solid scare against Jacky boy who serves up some meaty fastballs ready to be pounded by the fence swingers littering the Reds lineup.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stats Analytics Sports

MLB
Top Play - 3* Brewers/Mets Over 8

2* Royals/Angels Under 9.5
1* Blue Jays +1.5 runs
1* Giants +1.5 runs

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports (MLB)
Started Underdog of the Day this week (3-1overall)
Sunday - Pittsburgh Pirates +180

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
4 Unit over 223 bos/mil