Service Plays Tuesday 4/30/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eastman
5 Unit Mil -7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

lv wolf
2% over 8.5 balt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

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Billy Coleman

MLB
4* #973 Cleveland -1.5 runs (-110) (Bauer)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports (MLB Underdog of the Day) - Toronto Blue Jays +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Rusk


CINCINNATI -125


CINCINNATI @ N.Y. METS | 4/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:49 AM
What a pitching mismatch at Citi Field Tuesday night. The Reds aren’t the most fun to bet on due to their lack of run production, but with a Luis Castillo vs. Jason Vargas matchup, that shouldn’t be an issue. We have no choice but to fade Vargas in almost every outing as the Mets' shaky fifth starter. In his last outing versus the Reds, he only recorded one out! Yes, lasted a third of an inning. Reds should build off of their victory last night and continue their dominance off of Vargas winning three in a row against him.

25-12 IN LAST 37 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
3-0 IN LAST 3 NYM ML PICKS | +325


PITTSBURGH -103


PITTSBURGH @ TEXAS | 4/30 | 8:05 PM EDT
9:46 AM
A case of an eight-game losing streak and what it does to the market. The Pirates, regardless of how bad they may seem right now, are going to find a way to win a minimum of at least 70 games this year. That being said, they will snap out of their funk very soon. Jordan Lyles gets the call for the Buccos and he has gone five strong in every outing this year. A consistent pitcher up against a youngster who hasn’t started 10 games in his major league career with a lifetime 5.40 ERA at home is enough of an edge. I like the underdog here.

25-12 IN LAST 37 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
3-0 IN LAST 3 TEX ML PICKS | +300


ARIZONA -139


N.Y. YANKEES @ ARIZONA | 4/30 | 9:40 PM EDT
9:44 AM
The Yankees continue to be a bit overpriced. With all their injuries combining with a road trip that started over a week ago, they are fade material at a very good line. Winning nine out of 10 games shows that regression will occur soon. Let’s jump on it with the D'backs' Zack Greinke who has pitched beautifully against the Bronx Bombers in his last two outings going seven strong and picking up the victory in both. I have the Diamondbacks priced more than -150 at home Tuesday. Take the discount and run.

25-12 IN LAST 37 MLB ML PICKS | +1020
8-1 IN LAST 9 ARI ML PICKS | +779

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


BOSTON +7.5


BOSTON @ MILWAUKEE | 4/30 | 8:00 PM EDT
9:43 AM
The Celtics may be a No. 4 seed, but they're playing like a No. 1, and have been for a while now that they're healthy and Gordon Hayward is contributing as expected. They won Game 1 handily and are still getting a good amount of points. Boston has won nine of 10 and covered in eight of those. Even though we'll see a much better performance from Milwaukee, I still took the points with a Boston team that has put it all together.

99-72-1 IN LAST 172 NBA ATS PICKS | +1975
49-31-1 IN LAST 81 BOS ATS PICKS | +1525

28-19-1 IN LAST 48 MIL ATS PICKS | +709


HOUSTON +5.5


HOUSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/30 | 10:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:29 AM
The spread right now is the same as it was for Game 1, a four-point Warriors win and a Rockets cover. The non-call against Draymond Green on James Harden in the final seconds, and it could have been even closer if not an outright Houston win. I think the Warriors escaped, and the Rockets will keep it close with another chance to steal a road win. Take the points.

99-72-1 IN LAST 172 NBA ATS PICKS | +1975
33-26-2 IN LAST 61 GS ATS PICKS | +530

3-0 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited

4% Golden st -5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

MLB

Texas -108 v pittsburgh

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors
Top-End
1000 UNIT
N.L. Living Lock
Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
OAK F5 +.5 -110 3 units

MLB Season: 24-22-3 52% -13.45 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

nba
5* Milwaukee

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASKETBALL PLAYS

• FINN EASTERN CONFERENCE NBA CASH
  Game: (571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 8:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Boston Celtics 7.5 (-105)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Boston Celtics +7.5 (good to +6)
  4% game rating
  (571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
  There few adjustments that Milwuakee is able to make, considering their bench options, and as I stated in Game 1 of this series the events in this best-of-seven second-round affair is a coin-flip. Getting a touchdown plus worth of handicap is a coup.
  The analysis I outlined in the Game 1 of this second-round best-of-seven series was as follows:
  The Milwaukee versus Boston game breakdown isn't complicated or convoluted. The variables with Milwaukee and Boston are, in the least analytical terms, saber-simple. The two teams couldn't be any different in terms of how they want to play and what their strengths and weaknesses are.
  Ignore, as hard as it may be, the series in the regular season between the two. The Bucks dominated the Celtics in the regular slate if you look no further than the final scores of the four games. However, the real game that was played, the numbers behind the numbers, and the current roster look and man-to-man matchups, favor a Boston squad that is built for postseason play.
  
  The truth is that outside of the Greek Freak the Celtics can handle what Milwaukee puts in front of them. This with a healthy Kyrie Irving and the matchup problem that is named Al Horford.
  
  There are two variables that are a given, trustworthy when examining this game player by player, minute by minute and position by position -- in a nutshell the first line vs the first line and second line vs second line, for the Bucks and Celtics, respectively.
  
  1. The first line of the Bucks finds the offense going through the Greek. What you will find Boston doing is simply walling the Freak from putting his head down and overpowering the defense on his way to the rim. Mark it down and while watching the game witness just how soft the Boston frontcourt play Giannis Antetokounmpo.
  
  Part two of the first given is how the Celtics will approach the game, The Milwaukee defense will, for the second straight game, give Boston looks from beyond the arc. And while they may not shoot for the ridiculously high percentage they did in Game 1, they will get open looks. Hit their season average and they win, for a second straight game.
  
  It is safe to ignore what the Celtics did on both ends of the floor against Indiana. The Celtics' sweep of the Pacers made them appear to be more efficient offensively than they really are or can be. But the Bucks are everything but defensive minded.
  
  Investing into Boston plus the points in this Game 1 was easy. And while it isn't likely to be a rerun in Game 2 once again this is a pick'em affair in which the books are offering a butt-load of value on the handicap.
  
  
  BOSTON CELITCS +7.5

BASEBALL PLAYS

• FINN MLB DOUBLEHEADER GAME I
  Game: (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Atlanta Braves
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:20 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: San Diego Padres +100
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: San Diego Padres +100 (good to -110)
  4% game rating
  LIST PITCHERS: Paddock and Teheran
  (955) San Diego Padres at (956) Atlanta Braves
  The slot that Teheran holds in the Braves starting rotation is likely a temporary assignment... as long as the team continues to get the rest of the staff healthy and begins to tinker with the bullpen and their young farm arms. Teheran is as consistent as they come in terms of veteran pitchers. However, what he was and what is is today, albeit consistent, is middling at best. And not one of the three pitchers that Atlanta will use in their postseason rotation, if this is where they fit at season's end.
  Teheran recorded his first quality start (6.0 IP, 3 ER) against the Reds this past Thursday. The result was still a loss for the Braves and their starter. The righty struck out 7 batters while giving up 6 hits and walking 3. Teheran has been consistently inconsistent this season, looked at from an casual baseball eye. But his success will depend a lot on the home plate umpire and his teammates run production. If you wish to title success in the way of wins and losses.
  His 2019 BB/9 of 4.83 is well above his career average of 2.89. Teheran’s walk rate has increased each of the last two full seasons and it’s on its way to being a third consecutive season here in 2019. In 2016 (his last acceptable season for mlb investors) Teheran’s BB% was 5.4% and his ERA was 3.21; since then his BB% has steadily increased (12.0% so far in ‘19) and his ERA continues to grow.
  His 2019 ERA is now at 5.40 and his WHIP is a bet against 1.58 (primarily due to the walks).
  The Padres rookie starter Chris Paddack has the signficant advantage the first two times though the Braves lineup tonight. He notched his first career victory Wednesday after one-hitting the Mariners over seven scoreless innings. Paddack retired 19 batters in a row at one point and finished with nine strikeouts against only one walk. He comes into this contest with a 1.67 ERA over his first five starts with a 30:8 K/BB ratio in 27 innings. Most important is that while his ERA doesn't equal his xFIP they are much closer than one would expect from a rookie.
  The Braves bullpen is in turmoil while the Padres success has come via their starters and pen. The Braves have not had a live look at Paddock and scuffle throughj the first five innings of tonight's contest -- evenentually getting a win and evening the cuirrent series at 1-game-each
  SAN DIEGO PADRES +100
  
• FINN TUE MLB DOUBLEHEADER GAME II
  Game: (959) Los Angeles Dodgers at (960) San Francisco Giants
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 9:45 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -134
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: LA Dodgers -134 (good to -140)
  3% game rating
  LIST PITCHERS: Buehler and Pomeranz
  (959) Los Angeles Dodgers at (960) San Francisco Giants
  The Dodgers ace hasn’t been ace-like to begin the season, but he’s coming off a strong performance against Cincinnatti followed by holding the Cubs scoreless through 5 2/3 innings.. before hanging a breaking ball that Javier Baez crushed for a three-run homer. The Dodgers right-hander has seen his SwStr%, first strike %, and chase rate drop but despite the aforementioned peripherals opposing batters are still not making solid contact, particularly in the zone, where Buehler is sporting a great 80% zone contact%.
  Left-hander Pomeranz earned his first victory of 2019 in his last start. He worked six shutout innings against a soft-hitting and left-handed pitcher challenged Blue Jays lineup. The lefty allowing just two hits and two walks while striking out five. It was his first quality start after failing to exceed five frames in his four previous outings. The move from the AL (2-6 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP last year) to the National League will assist in improving his peripherals, both surface and underlying, but he will not and cannot get the neccessary run support to back against quality pitchers and lineups, e.g. Dodgers
  LA DODGERS -134

[dawggy]

DWAYNE BRYANTBASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (571) Boston Celtics at (572) Milwaukee Bucks
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 8:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  8:05 PM ET -- NBA
  
  571 Boston Celtics
  572 Milwaukee Bucks
  
  PLAY: 572 MILWAUKEE -7.5 (-110)
  BET SIZE: 3%
  
  DB's THOUGHTS: I like the Bucks to even things up tonight. Boston embarrassed the Bucks in Game 1 with a 112-90 beating on their home floor. Milwaukee has been a very good home team this season, and teams in this specific role (losing Game 1 at home as chalk of 7.5 points or more) are 23-1 SU and 15-8-1 ATS (65%) since 2003. Looks way too easy to grab Boston and all those points not only because they just won on this floor by 22 points, but also because they are 5-0 SU/ATS in these playoffs so far. When something looks too easy in the sports betting world, it's usually a good idea to go the other way. I expect the Bucks to answer with a double-digit W tonight.

[dawggy]

ROB VENO


BASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (973) Cleveland Indians at (974) Miami Marlins
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-120)
  
  View Analysis
• Game: (963) Houston Astros at (964) Minnesota Twins
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-105)
  
  View Analysis

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


BASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (953) Cincinnati Reds at (954) New York Mets
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: 1H Cincinnati Reds -124
  
  View Analysis
  
  Luis Castillo is the real deal! 1.23 ERA but a 2.52 FIP in 6 starts...going for his 7th start tonight. His swing and miss rate has gone up each of the last 3 years...his contact rate is an absurd 66%...and his changeup is weighted value at 7.3...best in the MLB by a large margin. Castillo can shut down a solid to great offense and make a mockery of a decent to poor offense...and facing an opponent like Vargas only adds to the pluses.
  Vargas is a lefty with an FIP/xFIP split at 6.39/6.66 in 4 starts and through 25 or so games facing left handed pitching than the Cincinnati Reds believe it or not...pretty solid...excellent at home and this is a road game...but still. They are also 4-0 against the RL facing lefties this season and 3-1 SU First 5.
  
• Game: (963) Houston Astros at (964) Minnesota Twins
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 7:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Greek
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Under 8.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Dr. Chuck System A totals at 45-16 since start of 2018 season!
  
  McHugh v. Pineda
  
  8.5 is excellent...8 is solid!
  
• Game: (977) New York Yankees at (978) Arizona Diamondbacks
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 9:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Greek
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -137
  
  View Analysis
  
  Big play on the diamond exploiting a very interesting situation where a home team is favores yet in their previous 10 games have not been favored more than 1 single time...and now are laying -130 or more...those teams are clearly chalk for a reason and undoubtedly the public isn't a fan of night in night out dogs...in this spot these teams are 110-49 SU last 3 years...and 81-78 on the Run Line! When the opposing dog is also in the midst of a 3 game win streak the record is 50-26 SU and 29-25 RL...32% ROI! Throw in the opponent tossing a lefty out there and the home team's 14-6 and 10-5 on the Run Line...60%ROI.
  CC is going for the Bronx Bombers and while studly at home so far...not so good on the road...and the reason we're laying the bigger money on a team not favored at all recently...Greinke.
  This Play is worth a hit on both the ML and RL and this is a very solid trend....hard to argue being on the side Vegas is winking at us with here...not only are the Yankees the Yankees and winning a ton recently....you smell a rat...you be right...
  
• Game: (977) New York Yankees at (978) Arizona Diamondbacks
  Date/Time: Apr 30 2019 9:40 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Greek
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+155)
  
  View Analysis