Monday 7-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park
PURCHASE
Delaware Park - Race 3

Daily Double (Races 3-4) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.) / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5, 50-cent min.) 50-cent Pick 5 (Races 3-7, 15% take out).


Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 2:15P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT NOT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * HEY BIG GUY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the to p three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FOLLOW THE SIGNS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. KING TIDE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 d ays. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. TOM'S MUSIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarte r Horse race).
2
HEY BIG GUY
4/1

5/2
8
FOLLOW THE SIGNS
5/2

7/1
9
KING TIDE
5/1

9/1
6
TOM'S MUSIC
12/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
7
C EM SMILE
7

10/1
Front-runner
86

82

99.0

73.0

59.5
8
FOLLOW THE SIGNS
8

5/2
Front-runner
90

74

93.2

84.4

79.4
4
LEGACY'S PRINCE
4

20/1
Front-runner
79

73

60.7

55.0

43.0
3
DO WITH PRIDE
3

6/1
Front-runner
74

70

51.4

63.9

48.9
6
TOM'S MUSIC
6

12/1
Stalker
87

83

62.4

75.4

65.9
2
HEY BIG GUY
2

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
99

91

81.4

88.6

81.6
10
POPPY'S TWO STEP
10

10/1
Alternator/Stalker
84

75

50.0

71.1

60.1
1
MY FRIEND LINUS
1

10/1
Trailer
78

69

42.6

65.3

51.8
9
KING TIDE
9

5/1
Alternator/Trailer
82

79

67.6

77.4

66.9
5
GALAXY EXPRESS
5

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
87

90

69.1

69.6

57.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 40

FOR ACCREDITED OHIO FOALS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 NUNS ISLAND 5/2

# 5 WAFFLESORPANCAKES 7/2

# 6 KINDA SASSY 6/1

I back NUNS ISLAND here. Earning some nice paychecks in dirt sprint races. A nice ROI of +16 with this jock and trainer combo. Make a note that this horse runs with second time Lasix today. WAFFLESORPANCAKES - McDonald has a strong win percent with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Reason to like this filly as she has in the irons one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. KINDA SASSY - Velez's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this racer a solid contender.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #7 - Post: 9:12pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,900 Class Rating: 75

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 RALLY WITH CLASS (ML=5/2)


RALLY WITH CLASS - Numerous positive 'sensations' associated with this racer and his connections.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 TWIN ENGINE (ML=8/5), #1 RIGHTEOUS RIDE (ML=4/1), #5 SHAMROCK ROAD (ML=5/1),

TWIN ENGINE - Not a value play to back the public's choice when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. Hard to put your dough on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as frequently as this thoroughbred does. RIGHTEOUS RIDE - The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not playing this pony off of that trend. Couldn't make up ground at any point on July 5th. Hard to bet on today at the expected odds. Substandard speed figure last time around the track at Belterra Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race. SHAMROCK ROAD - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned most of the time. Mountaineer Park isn't nice digs to this mount. Should be difficult for this racer to beat this group off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued equines list.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#8 RALLY WITH CLASS is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1A SARATOGA WILDCAT (ML=7/2)


SARATOGA WILDCAT - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +50. This gelding is at the same 6 furlongs distance he won at on Mar 7th, which was at a higher class level than today's contest. Dropping in Equibase class figure points from his June 25th race at Parx Racing. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the edge. Have to make this gelding a serious competitor; he comes off a nice outing on June 25th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 RUNS FOR LUCK (ML=5/2), #1 MUSICAL COMEDY (ML=7/2), #6 RING NECKED (ML=9/2),

RUNS FOR LUCK - You should normally gamble against favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. MUSICAL COMEDY - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't finish first. Difficult to bet on him on the front end. This questionable contender didn't race too well last time finishing fifth. Can't expect any improvement in today's race. RING NECKED - In any event of 6 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests recently. Difficult to bet on any entrant to turn things around if there is no value to taking the risk. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to notch a much better rating than last race out to vie in this dirt sprint.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #1 Entry to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $26500 Class Rating: 67

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 JERSEY WILD 5/1

# 5 BELLAMY BIGS 6/1

# 3 BELLAMY BROOKE 8/1

JERSEY WILD has a formidable shot to take this race. This choice will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Her trainer has done solidly with runners going to the post for the first time. Has reliable trainer figures (Dalessandro wins 21 percent of the time with 2yolds) to back up this selection. BELLAMY BROOKE - There is a quite good chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. With one of the best riders in terms of returns at the window, don't count this filly out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Louisiana Downs
PURCHASE

07/15/19, LAD, Race 1, 3.15 CT
1M 70Y [Dirt] 1.39.02 CLAIMING. Purse $7,000.
Claiming Price $5,000. FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES
Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags
100.0000 5 Gina's Pie 9/2 Green A Fontenot Allen SFEC
099.5192 4 Weavemeawinr 2-1 Lozada C Mordenti Kathleen M.
098.7653 6 Princesa Sparkle 5-1 Del-Cid H Shumake Ray T
097.1770 7 Lil Kylie 3-1 Murray E M Schmidt Denise WL
095.0200 3 Yella Wally Gator 12-1 Roberts C Smith V. L. J
093.7432 2 Meg and Clair 6-1 Castillo A Gomez Jorge
092.7958 8 Whitebutton 12-1 Pivaral G Daniels Connie L.
091.1977 1 Hay Viene Navidad 20-1 Naupac W West. Jr. Henry
After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to LAD.
Pgm# Profit ROI WPC Win# Occ Profitable_Conditions_If_Top_Rated_Horse
5 100.20 1.21 40.17 94 234 [All Surfaces] Best Finish
4 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
6 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
7 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
3 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
2 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
8 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route
1 57.70 1.10 33.78 100 296 [All Surfaces] Race Distance Route

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Brown

Tony's MLB free play

Detroit vs. Cleveland, 07/15/2019 19:10 EDT

Point Spread: -1½/-105 Cleveland

Sportsbook:
Bodog

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence
Monday MLB Steam
> Cincinnati: Castillo 6-1 $ in July (4-0 L4) ... Atlanta: Fried 4-0 $ vs. NL Central this season ... Tampa Bay: Snell 2-8 $ career at Yankee Stadium, NYY: 7-1 Mondays this season ... Kansas City: 1-7 on Mondays this season ... San Francisco: Pomeranz 0-5 $ in July.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Jul 15 '19, 2:10 PM in 59m
MLB | Giants vs Rockies
Play on: Rockies -180 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on Rockies

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Dustin Hawkins

Jul 15 '19, 2:10 PM in 59m
MLB | Giants vs Rockies
Play on: Giants +190 at Mirage

1 Dimer on Giants +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Jul 15 '19, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | TAM vs NYY
Play on: OVER 8½ -114

Free Play on Rays vs Yankees over8½ -114
Despite two solid pitchers on the mound in this game (Blake Snell for Tampa Bay and James Paxton for New York), we can expect plenty of runs in this game. Both pitchers carry an ERA above 4.00 and have had some games this year where they got rocked hard. Snell has four games where has allowed at least six earned runs and Paxton has three where he has allowed at least five. Tampa Bay's offense is hot coming out of the All-Star break, scoring 33 runs in four games and the Yankees have baseball's second-highest scoring offense. We can expect a chunk of runs early from the starters and see this game cruise past the over once we see some bullpen action.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Jul 15 '19, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Dodgers vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies +160 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Philadelphia Phillies +160
I’ll take a shot with the Phillies today at home against the Dodgers. The Dodgers played in an extra innings thriller last night in Boston, winning 7-4 and earning revenge on them after losing to the Red Sox in the World Series. It’s definitely a bit of a letdown spot here for the Red Sox tonight. Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been that great on the road this season, going 1-2 with a 3.99 ERA in six starts. Zach Eflin is 5-2 with a 3.04 ERA in his seven home starts this year for the Phillies. The tough spot for the Dodgers and the home/road splits for these two starting pitchers warrants a bet on Philadelphia tonight. Give me the Phillies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Jul 15 '19, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Rays vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -141 at pinnacle

1* Free Sharp Play on Yankees -141
My money is on the Yankees to cash in an easy win here at home against the Rays. Tampa Bay's Blake Snell is a guy people like to back, but he's actually a perfect guy to fade on the road. Snell has a 6.48 ERA in 9 road starts, where he's allowed 30 runs on 48 hits in 41 2/3 innings. Yankees will counter with James Paxton, who when right is one of the best in the game. Paxton tends to throw well at home, where he's got a 3.26 ERA in 8 starts. He's also 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA in 4 starts vs the Rays. Bet the Yankees -141!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ricky Tran

Jul 15 '19, 7:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Rays vs Yankees
Play on: Yankees -136 at 5Dimes

Ricky’s 1* Free Play on the New York Yankees.
New York leads the season series 9-4, but Tampa took two of three in a series right before the All-Star break. However the Rays have lost four straight in the Bronx, allowing 34 runs in the process. New York enters having gone 12-0-1 in its last 13 home series after securing the 4-2 win over Toronto on Sunday. James Paxton (5-4, 4.01 ERA) gets the nod for the home side and he’s 3-1 with a 3.24 ERA over four career match ups with the Rays. The Rays go with Blake Snell, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA vs. New York this year.
Key Trends:
- Tampa Bay a poor 19-21 (-5.3 units) this season vs. teams with winning records.
- New York is 15-2 (+11.9 units) this year as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range.
The verdict: For the most part MLB handicapping is about the starting pitchers and in this case, I like Paxton to get the better of Snell, who is now just a shell of his former self. Consider the Yankees on Monday night!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Jul 15 '19, 7:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Tigers vs Indians
Play on: Tigers +186 at 5Dimes

1* Free MLB Pick on Detroit Tigers +186
I cashed in a huge profit on Sunday with Detroit as a +142 dog at at KC and love the value here with the Tigers as a near +200 dog in Monday's series opener at Cleveland.
No question that the Indians are the better team, but this is a big flat spot for Cleveland coming off their massive 3-game series against division leader Minnesota over the weekend. Indians avoided getting swept by the Twins with a 4-3 win on Sunday. However, they are just 5-11 over the last 3 years off a 1 run win against a division rival.
Detroit's offense scored a season high 12 runs on a season high 19 hits in Sunday's win. They will be up against one of the lesser Indians' starters in Adam Plutko, who has a mediocre 4.26 ERA in 6 starts.
I know the numbers aren't great for Tigers' starter Daniel Norris, but he's 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA in 6 career starts. Take Detroit!