Saturday 7-27-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #7 - Post: 3:20pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,800 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 LANDLINE (ML=10/1)
#6 TANCAHUA (ML=6/1)
#8 GRIND LINE (ML=9/2)


LANDLINE - You should discount that last race at Thistledown in the slop where he finished off the board. Should do well right here with the benefit of a fast track. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. Johnson enters him at a similar level today. I'd expect an improved performance. TANCAHUA - This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Zielinski. GRIND LINE - Really have to figure this mount is going to be close at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CELTIC LINE (ML=3/1), #4 FURTHERINSTRUCTION (ML=7/2), #3 HILLBILLY RICH (ML=6/1),

CELTIC LINE - Finished third last out. Would have to improve to land in the top three in today's event. FURTHERINSTRUCTION - The lack of drills has to make one concerned despite the good performance in the last event. To me, when a racer adds wraps in his last contest, it's never a good sign. This less than sharp equine ran a mediocre rating last out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably lose in today's event running that number. HILLBILLY RICH - Finished first in his most recent effort with a pedestrian speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 LANDLINE on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [6,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[2,6,8] with [2,6,8] with [1,2,4,6,8] with [1,2,4,6,8] Total Cost: $36

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/27/19, SAR, Race 10, 6.18 ET
1 3/8M [Inner Turf] 2.11.02 STAKES. Purse $250,000.
Grade 2
Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (10-12), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	3	(F)Ya Primo (CHI)	8-1	Ortiz J L	Brown Chad C.	W
099.4115	1	Arklow	9/2	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.	T
099.1290	5	Channel Maker	7/2	Rosario J	Mott William I.
098.1446	11	Olympico (FR)	10-1	Velazquez J R	Brown Chad C.	S
097.9232	12	Focus Group	8-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	C
096.9926	8	Zulu Alpha	10-1	Lezcano J	Maker Michael J.	JL
096.8655	10	Channel Cat	12-1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.
095.9617	9	Red Knight	12-1	Leparoux J R	Mott William I.	F
095.9603	2	Sadler's Joy	6-1	Castellano J	Albertrani Thomas	E
095.7145	7	Argonne	30-1	Alvarado J	Bond H. James
095.2485	13	Bigger Picture	10-1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.
094.8973	6	Highland Sky	20-1	Franco M	Tagg Barclay
090.3552	4	Catcho En Die (ARG)	50-1	Cancel E	Chatterpaul Naipaul

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SAR.

3	50.20	1.46	33.33	18	54	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Weight Is Not Less Than Today
1	63.00	1.62	37.25	19	51	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Greater Than Today
5	50.20	1.46	33.33	18	54	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Weight Is Not Less Than Today
11	49.00	1.27	30.77	28	91	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Equal To Today
12	57.50	1.34	34.52	29	84	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today
8	57.50	1.34	34.52	29	84	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today
10	57.50	1.34	34.52	29	84	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today
9	68.80	1.75	45.65	21	46	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Best Finish
2	63.00	1.62	37.25	19	51	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Greater Than Today
7	57.50	1.34	34.52	29	84	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today
13	57.50	1.34	34.52	29	84	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today
6	63.00	1.62	37.25	19	51	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Greater Than Today
4	57.50	1.34	34.52	29	84	[Turf Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Distance Is Not Less Than Today

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	3	(F)Ya Primo (CHI)	8-1	Ortiz J L	Brown Chad C.	W
099.6613	5	Channel Maker	7/2	Rosario J	Mott William I.	E
099.5062	11	Olympico (FR)	10-1	Velazquez J R	Brown Chad C.	S
098.8628	1	Arklow	9/2	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.	T
097.5816	12	Focus Group	8-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	C
096.6859	10	Channel Cat	12-1	Saez L	Pletcher Todd A.
096.1435	8	Zulu Alpha	10-1	Lezcano J	Maker Michael J.	JL
095.1686	6	Highland Sky	20-1	Franco M	Tagg Barclay
094.8299	2	Sadler's Joy	6-1	Castellano J	Albertrani Thomas
094.8270	13	Bigger Picture	10-1	Gaffalione T	Maker Michael J.
094.6664	7	Argonne	30-1	Alvarado J	Bond H. James	F
094.6181	9	Red Knight	12-1	Leparoux J R	Mott William I.
090.0670	4	Catcho En Die (ARG)	50-1	Cancel E	Chatterpaul Naipaul

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to SAR.

3	26.80	1.56	33.33	8	24	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race
5	9.90	1.11	42.55	20	47	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
11	26.80	1.56	33.33	8	24	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race
1	9.90	1.11	42.55	20	47	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
8	26.80	1.56	33.33	8	24	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race
6	26.80	1.56	33.33	8	24	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race
2	26.80	1.56	33.33	8	24	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race
13	26.80	1.56	33.33	8	24	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] 5f Workout Since Last Race
4	9.90	1.11	42.55	20	47	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

---

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park

07/27/19, MTH, Race 1, 12.50 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.39.01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,500.
Claiming Price $16,000, For Each $1,000 To $14,000 1 lb. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
Win, Place and Show - Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta - Daily Double (Races 1-2)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) - 50-Cent Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	2	La Leyenda	8-1	Ferrer J C	Dini Michael
099.0191	5	Perfect Harmony	10-1	Castillo I	Vuyosevich Jeanne L.	S
099.0052	8	Sir Hoski	7/2	Hernandez C J	Nihei Michelle
098.9511	4	Ticked All Daboxes	12-1	Diaz. Jr. H R	Maymo Alejandro	W
098.6807	10	Noonsight	5/2	Lopez P	Sweezey J. Kent	JEL
098.3957	3	Garsoon	10-1	DeCarlo C P	Follett Norman C.
098.3126	1	Zumbya	8-1	Hernandez H	O'Connell Kathleen	T
097.6157	11	Looking At U Kid	9/2	Juarez N	Frangella. Jr. James A	FC
096.4480	6	Mac Creiche(b-)	15-1	Torres J	Sweezey J. Kent
094.6509	7	Stabler	20-1	Gonzalez J L	Vuyosevich Jeanne L.
093.1181	9	Thekidsback	20-1	Garcia W A	Ortega Leopoldo M.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.

2	30.00	1.75	40.00	8	20	[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Was Main With Turf Today
5	28.00	1.56	40.00	10	25	[Turf MdnMClm] Best Speed
8	16.40	1.26	37.50	12	32	[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
4	15.20	1.17	31.82	14	44	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Age 3
10	16.60	1.40	38.10	8	21	[Turf MdnMClm] Best Earnings
3	16.40	1.26	37.50	12	32	[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
1	20.20	6.05	50.00	1	2	[Turf MdnMClm] Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 4
11	28.00	2.75	62.50	5	8	[Turf MdnMClm] Best Closer
6	16.40	1.26	37.50	12	32	[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Is Same Track As Today
7	30.00	1.75	40.00	8	20	[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Was Main With Turf Today
9	30.00	1.75	40.00	8	20	[Turf MdnMClm] Last Race Was Main With Turf Today

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	2	La Leyenda	8-1	Ferrer J C	Dini Michael
098.0549	5	Perfect Harmony	10-1	Castillo I	Vuyosevich Jeanne L.	SW
097.8173	10	Noonsight	5/2	Lopez P	Sweezey J. Kent	JFEL
097.0611	11	Looking At U Kid	9/2	Juarez N	Frangella. Jr. James A	C
094.7044	8	Sir Hoski	7/2	Hernandez C J	Nihei Michelle
094.5287	1	Zumbya	8-1	Hernandez H	O'Connell Kathleen	T
093.9715	4	Ticked All Daboxes	12-1	Diaz. Jr. H R	Maymo Alejandro
093.4715	6	Mac Creiche(b-)	15-1	Torres J	Sweezey J. Kent
092.9880	3	Garsoon	10-1	DeCarlo C P	Follett Norman C.
091.7315	7	Stabler	20-1	Gonzalez J L	Vuyosevich Jeanne L.
090.1920	9	Thekidsback	20-1	Garcia W A	Ortega Leopoldo M.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to MTH.

2	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP
5	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP
10	9.00	1.11	46.34	19	41	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
11	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP
8	9.00	1.11	46.34	19	41	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
1	9.00	1.11	46.34	19	41	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
4	9.00	1.11	46.34	19	41	[Dirt MdnMClm] Race Distance Route
6	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP
3	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP
7	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP
9	11.60	1.16	38.89	14	36	[Dirt MdnMClm] Horse Age 4UP

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Saturday comp play is the Braves over the Phillies once again.

After winning 3 in a row, Philadelphia came back to reality in last night's series opener, as they were spanked once again by Atlanta, 9-2.

For the Braves, it marked their third straight win over the Phillies, and it was also their fifth win in the last seven series meetings this year since getting swept in Philly to open the year.

Max Fried was on the hill in a 9-8 Braves win over the Phillies back on June 14th, but did allow 5 runs in his 4-plus innings worked. Atlanta has won 9 of his last 12 starts.

Zach Efflin has allowed 6 runs or more in 3 of his last 5 assignments, and did allow 6 earned runs (7 total) in his 4th of July start against the Braves to open the month of July.

The bottom line is this, the Braves are in first place and the defending N.L. East Division champions. They know they can beat this Phillies team. Heck, they just showed it last night by blowing them out by 7 runs in the opener.

Look for the Braves to take care of business again this evening.

Play Atlanta over Philadelphia.

4* ATLANTA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Weston

COMPLIMENTARY WINNER

My free play is on the Atlanta Braves against the Philadelphia Phillies, and I insist you list Max Fried over Zach Eflin in this one.

Fried, who is 10-4 with a 4.08 ERA, will return from the injured list and should be geared up for his first since developing a blister during a July 15 win in Milwaukee. The young left-hander will most certainly e fresh, his arm will be lively, and his velocity will be top notch against the Phillies' lineup after totaling just 10 innings across two starts this month.

Meanwhile, as the Phillies believe Eflin is healthy and ready for an encounter with the division-leading Braves, the right-hander has complained about feeling "heavy" of late, and that can pose an upper body issue, and affect his delivery.

That doesn't bode well in a game like this, as the right-hander is 1-3 with a 9.38 ERA in his last five starts and now faces a team with the eighth-best batting average (.261) in baseball, and has scored the seventh-most runs (547) this season.

Take Atlanta and list both.

2* BRAVES (Fried over Eflin)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors

For Saturday, I will go ahead and play the Indians on the Run Line to keep the Royals cooled off.

Kansas City came into this home series against their division-rivals having won 7 of 9 games, but the Royals just cannot seem to break through against the Tribe, as they lost on Thursday in 14 innings by a run, and then again last night by an 8-3 count.


Cleveland has now won 8 of the last 9 meetings this year versus Kansas City. They have recorded the win by 2 runs or better in 6 of those 9 wins too, so laying the run-and-a-half tonight makes sense to me.


Mike Clevinger has not lost in any of his last 4 starts, and he did throw 6 scoreless innings for the win over the Royals back on July 3rd.


Glenn Sparkman has not fooled very many Cleveland batters, as he has worked just over 11 innings in a pair of starts against them this season, and the Tribe have jacked him up to a tune of 16 hits and 11 runs - 10 of the runs earned.


This one shapes up to be another final along the lines of last night's 8-3 score line.


Indians Run Line for Saturday.

5* CLEVELAND -1 1/2 RUNS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1. NSA(The Legend) MLB – Red Sox -135
2. Gameday Network MLB – Twins -170
3. VegasSI.com MLB – Cubs under 9.5
4. Vegas Line Crushers MLB – Astros over 8.5
5. Sports Action 365 MLB – Athletics -165
6. Point Spread Report MLB – Reds -165
7. Lou Panelli MLB – Phillies +105
8. Gerry “Big Cat” Andino MLB – Blue Jays over 9.5
9. VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club MLB – Dodgers -175
10. William E. Stockton MLB – Marlins +115
11. Vincent Pioli MLB – Giants +115
12. Steve “Scoop” Kendall MLB – Indians over 9.5
13. SCORE MLB – Pirates +120
14. East Coast Line Movers MLB – Tigers under 9
15. Tony Campone MLB – Blue Jays +110
16. Chicago Sports Group MLB – Astros -1.5
17. Hollywood Sportsline MLB – Marlins +115
18. VIP Action MLB – Dodgers -175
19. South Beach Sports MLB – Reds under 10.5
20. Las Vegas Sports Commission MLB – Athletics -165
21. NY Players Club MLB – Twins -170
22. Fred Callahan MLB – Marlins +115
23. Las Vegas Private CEO Club MLB – Dodgers -175
24. Michigan Sports MLB – Indians over 9.5
25. National Consensus Report MLB – Cubs +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Jul 27 '19, 4:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Yankees vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox -134 at YouWager

My free play is on the Bos Red Sox at 4:05 ET. The New York Yankees did take two of three to open the week at Minnesota but gave up 27 runs in the process. New York arrived in Boston on Thursday to open a four-game series with the hated Red Sox and its pitching woes have gotten worse. Tanaka allowed 12 ERs in just 3.1 innings in Thursday's 19-3 loss and then Paxton allowed seven ERs in four innings during Friday's 10-5 loss. The 66-37 Yankees still own a nine-game lead over Boston in the AL East (Rays are 8 1/2 back) but New York's pitchers have allowed 64 runs in the team's last six games. Starters have lasted just 21.2 innings in that span, allowing 47 runs (43 earned) on 47 hits (including 16 HRs) a 17.86 ERA. Eight Boston players had at least two RBI in Thursday's win, while reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts led the offensive assault in Friday's romp, hitting three HRs and adding an RBI double (5 RBI in all) to become the first player in history with four three-HR games out of the leadoff spot. Boston is 11 games over .500 for the first time this season (58-47) but even wins Saturday and Sunday would only close the gap between them and the Yankees to seven games. CC Sabathia (5-5, 4.50 ERA) will take the mound for New York on Saturday afternoon, opposed by Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez (12-4, 4.10 ERA). This is CC's last season and he's been AWFUL on the road. He may be 4-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.11 ERA in eight home starts (Yanks are 7-1) but in eight road starts, he's 1-4 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.59 WHIP (Yanks are 2-6). He's had plenty of experience against the Red Sox but is a modest 18-17 (4.43 ERA) in 46 career starts (team is 21-25). Rodriguez won his sixth consecutive decision with a superb effort at Tampa Bay last time out, limiting the Rays to two hits over seven scoreless innings to improve to 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA in July (Boston is 5-1). Rodriguez is unbeaten in his last eight starts (Boston is 7-1) and enters this contest with MLB's second-best moneyline mark (16-5 in team starts, plus-$1.043). Rodriguez remains underappreciated, as Boston went 19-4 in his starts during 2018, giving him MLB's 6th-best moneyline mark at plus-$1,347. It's time for him to get his due. Take Boston. Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Jul 27 '19, 7:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Pirates vs Mets
Play on: Pirates +122 at sportsbook

FREE PLAY on Pirates +122

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FURBOOKIE

MLB

NEW YORK YANKEES/BOSTON RED SOX o11.5

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Tommy King Wins

MLB

BOSTON RED SOX ‑140

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Pure Lock

MLB

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS ‑115

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R and R Totals

MLB

ATLANTA BRAVES/PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

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Tys Terrific Tips

MLB

SEATTLE MARINERS ‑145

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Team Underground

MLB

NEW YORK METS ‑130