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| Tommy King Wins | NFL | ARIZONA CARDINALS +4 |
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Chris Jordan
My free play for Thursday is on the Cincinnati Reds against the St. Louis Cardinals, and I want you playing this one on the Run Line.
MAKE NOTE: All Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the starters of record on your ticket when making your play: Sonny Gray and Michael Wacha. If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.
The Reds seem to be hanging around in the wild-card race. And because they're in the National League Central, that means they're in the division race. They're 7 1/2 games back in the Central - behind the division-leading Cardinals and Chicago Cubs - and 7 1/2 back in the wild-card race.
Tonight their resurgent offense will get to Wacha, who just gave up six runs over 3 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in his last start. And while I know he's won seven straight appearances at Great American Ball Park, either as a starter or a reliever, he faces an offense that is hitting .293 in its last 10 games.
That is much better than what the Cardinals have done offensively, as they're hitting just .227 in their last 10.
And that'll be trouble against one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, including Gray, who steps to the rubber riding a season-high tying streak of 13 scoreless innings after laboring over six innings with two hits allowed during a 10-1 thrashing of the Cubs on Saturday.
Gray, who didn't allow a hit over his first four innings, is 0-1 in his lone career start against the Cardinals. He threw five innings, scattered three hits and allowed just two earned runs. Given he was in the American League most of his career, that's understandable.
I like the Reds on the run line, especially with the pitchers who are going.
2* REDS RUN LINE (Gray over Wacha)Comment
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Dwayne Connors
Thursday comp play is for the Mets and Marcus Stroman to salvage this concluding lost series in Atlanta against the Braves and Julio Teheran.
Atlanta has held court over the past pair of nights, winning 5-3 on Tuesday night and then followed with a 6-4 win in last night's middle game. The Braves will welcome the L.A. Dodgers for the weekend after New York leaves, and something tells me that with the series win already secured, Atlanta will have a little hiccup here tonight in series conclusion.
Remember, prior to getting bested the last 2 nights - 3 games overall now - New York had been on a 15-1 run. Marcus Stroman has turned in a pair of no-decisions since coming over to the Mets from the Blue Jays. He last faced the Braves in 2017, and is 2-0 versus them for his career. I am going to look for Stroman to author his first win in a much-needed spot tonight for New York.
Julio Teheran has been rock-solid for the Braves this season, but he has had his troubles with the Mets in his last pair of turns against them this season, as his last 7-plus innings against the Mets have produced 8 runs on 13 hits!
Teheran will need to show me he can solve this Mets lineup tonight. My money says he cannot.
Take the Mets to avoid the sweep at Sun Trust Park.
2* N.Y. METSComment
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Bob Valentino
For Thursday, gotta keep on riding the Over train the Yankees have been on as they open a new home series tonight against the Cleveland Indians.
Depending on your closing price on Wednesday, you either pushed in New York's 6-5 win (and sweep) of Baltimore, or you got a winner on the 10 1/2 number that was also out there throughout the morning.
Let's score it a push just to be safe. Even so, the Yankees are now 19-6-1 Over the total in their last 26 games played!
Cleveland comes to town having just played Over the total in their series against Boston in 2 of the 3, but the Tribe are off scoring just 1 run in Wednesday's game as the finale did hold Under the total.
This will be second series of the year between the clubs, the first at Progressive Field in June seeing 2 of the 3 land Over the total to push the series Over run to 5-2-1 the last 8 times the teams have played one another.
Adam Plutko will make his second start of the year versus the Yankees, as he was able to hold the New York sticks to only 2 runs in his 6 innings pitched back on June 8th, but the game did end up seeing a combined 12 runs for the Over. Plutko's season ERA on the road is over 5, so going to look for the Bronx Bombers to continue with their offensive assault in this spot.
Chad Green will go for the Yankees, as this is one of their "bullpen" games that Aaron Boone will piece together as the game goes along.
I don't see this game panning out to be of the low-scoring variety.
Indians-Yankess land Over on Thursday.
Thursday night Over in the Indians at Yankees.
4* CLEVELAND-N.Y. YANKEES OVERComment
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Jack Brayman
Quick analysis here on the Oakland Athletics against the Houston Astros, as it comes down to pitching in this one. Be sure you list Mike Fiers over Aaron Sanchez.
Truth is, Fiers has been one of baseball's elite pitchers the past 3 1/2 months, as he's sporting a 2.28 ERA since April 26, the lowest among American League starters during that span.
And he won't show any intimidation tonight, as he pitched well against these same Astros not too long ago in Houston, where he limited the Astros to two runs over 7 2/3 innings on July 23.
Sanchez, meanwhile, makes just his third start since arriving via trade with Toronto on July 31. Yes, he threw six hitless innings in his Houston debut on Aug. 3 in a combined no-hitter. And I know he allowed just one run on three hits in five innings in Saturday's 23-2 win at Baltimore.
But that was against the Mariners and Orioles. These are the Athletics, who are in second place in the American League West, just 9 1/2 back of the Astros and two games back in the wild-card race. And lest we forget, Sanchez is 5-14 with a 5.60 ERA this season. He hasn't fared all that well.
I'll play the Athletics here.
2* ATHLETICS (Fiers over Sanchez)Comment
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Tony Weston
COMPLIMENTARY WINNER
My free pick is on the Oakland Raiders tonight, as I like them to challenge and potentially win the game outright against the Arizona Cardinals.
Like with all football plays in this point-spread range, I want you active in buying the half point. Anytime there is an underdog catching between +2.5 and +4, you are to buy the half point up.
Many people believe the Raiders are being distracted by the Antonio Brown situation, and Hard Knocks following them around. But I got news for you, none of that is impacting how the Raiders are preparing for the season. Brown will be one of the two best receivers in the league this season, whether he plays one down in the preseason or not.
The Raiders are so focused on improving in every area, and you saw how good the team played defensively last week against the Rams.
Truth is, there are more off-field issues bothering the Cardinals than there are bothering the Raiders. You have an executive - the COO - in the front office arrested for driving under the influence. That's a significant blow when you consider the totality with this organization.
Coming off a 3-13 season, it's the second time a front office guy has been arrested for DUI. There were three players having to be dismissed in the last month or so. There are hard questions to answer for the upper brass.
Then there are injuries.
Arizona was dinged up last week and will likely be missing key personnel, from the offensive line, to the receiving corps, to the secondary to the defensive front.
If there is one team hampered by distractions, it's the Cardinals. And the Raiders will come in fired up for this one, looking for the outright win.
3* RAIDERSComment
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Jack Brayman
I guess I'll take my boy Chris Jordan's lead, and offer up an NFL win total as a complimentary play for you, as there is one team I've been looking at this season, when weighing the rest of its division.
Out of the NFC West, I don't have an opinion on defending the conference champion Los Angeles Rams (10'), and looked at playing both the Seattle Seahawks (8') and Arizona Cardinals (5) under the respective totals. I don't know what to make out of the boys from Glendale, but the 'Hawks, I do believe they'll fail to hit the 9-win mark considering their road schedule, and their offseason roster hits.
That leaves the San Francisco 49ers, who I believe will go over 8 wins.
The hype surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo's arrival last season was well deserved. By the start of this season, I'm encouraged he'll know his offense and have a solid rhythm with his receivers.
Jordan Matthews signed as a free agent with the 49ers this past offseason, and the team drafted receivers in the second and third round, taking Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd, respectively. Jerick McKinnon, was acquired as a free agent last offseason, and will be back from a preseason injury he suffered last year. He and Tevin Coleman figure to blend in well.
That rejuvenated offense on a team that went 4-12 last season, and still produced an average of +14 yards per game, is very promising.
While the 49ers defense ranked a solid 13th overall, it ranked 28th in scoring last season. Last year’s 17th-best pass rush will surely improve this year.
First-round choice Joey Bosa fell right into the 49ers' lap, while they did a good job in acquiring Dee Ford from the Kansas City Chiefs and signed linebacker Kwon Alexander from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They can help a team that had a -25 turnover differential last year. Believe it or not, we've seen teams dramatically improve the year after registering a -20 turnover differential or worse the previous season, to the tune of at least 6 wins the following campaign.
The philosophy there is that by shoring up the turnovers, you create more opportunities for the offense, by holding on to the ball, and increasing the takeaways with an improved defense.
Look, the fact is, the 49ers were one of only two teams to rank top 10 on both offense and defense in 2018. This year they're poised to be much better.
Play the 49ers over the win total.
5* 49ERS OVERComment
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