Sunday 9-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:48 AM

John Ryan
Sep 15 '19, 1:00 PM in 2d
NFL | Patriots vs Dolphins
Play on: Dolphins +17½ -105 at sportsbook

5-STAR WAGER ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS (270) AS THEY TAKE ON THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST, SEPTEMBER 15, 2019.

This is the ultimate polar opposite game and pick with the best team playing the worst team in the NFL. Miami is not a good team, but they are not as bad as they played in Sunday’s embarassing loss to the Ravens. Further, the Patriots played an incredible game against the Steelers. So, a return to the nor is in store for this matchup. Not suggesting for a second that the Dolphins can shock the world and win the game, but 17.5 points is just too many points.

This situational query has earned a solid 31-9 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The query requirements are to play on underdogs that were a terrible defense allowing 385 or more yards-per-game in the previous season. This query has gone 1-1 ATS in Week-1 action (Bengals covered against Seattle) and 12-5 ATS over the last five seasons.

From the Machine Learning summary, the Patriots are projected to outgain the Dolphins by not more than 1.5 yards-per-Play (YPPL). In past games, teams that are installed as 14.5-point or greater underdogs and are not outgained by more than 1.5 YPPL are a solid 35-18-1 ATS for 66% winning bets and 2-52 straight-up (SU). So, the Patriost go to 2-0 and Miami covers the spread in this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:48 AM

Will Rogers
Sep 15 '19, 4:25 PM in 2d
NFL | Saints vs Rams
Play on: Saints +2½ +100 at Mirage

The set-up: Both teams come in off tougher than expected victories. That said, I was more impressed with Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 1. While I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing up the points. Remember, this is a “revenge” game for New Orleans, which was knocked out of the playoffs last year by the Rams on a controversial call. I think the Saints got looking past the Texans last weekend. That said, clearly Houston looked a lot better than LA’s opponent Carolina did.

The pick: Last week Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley had 97 yards on 14 carries, but the health of his knee is still in question. And despite HOW the Saints won last weekend, they’re still the ONLY team in the NFC South which emerged victorious after Week 1. The stage is now set for Brees to get his revenge vs. the undermanned/injured Rams. I think the conditions are right for a minor upset in this one.

1* FREE PLAY on New Orleans Saints.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:49 AM

Ricky Tran
Sep 15 '19, 4:25 PM in 2d
NFL | Bears vs Broncos
Play on: Broncos +3 -115 at Bovada

Ricky’s 1* Free Play on the Denver Broncos.

Both teams are hungry for a victory here obviously after lacklustre Week 1 setbacks. Joe Flacco and the Broncos lost 24-16 at Oakland, while the Bears fell 10-3 at home to the Packers. Green Bay’s defense couldn’t get any worse than it did last year, so it’s hard to really judge where the Bears offense is at the moment.

The verdict: Denver is tough to beat at home. Note that over the last eight years the Broncos have won 12 straight home games that have taken place in Week’s 1 or 2. Additionally note that Chicago has lost its first road game of the season in four straight seasons. The Bears defense looked decent last week, but they were limited to 254 total yards with zero trips into the red zone on the offensive side. That’s simply not going to get it done in Mile High in my opinion this weekend. I’m grabbing the points, but obviously won’t be shocked by the outright upset!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:49 AM

Tim Michael
Sep 15 '19, 8:20 PM in 3d
NFL | Eagles vs Falcons
Play on: Eagles PK -125 at 5dimes

T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Eagles (1* FREE PLAY)

Note that these two teams played in Week 1 last year and it was the Eagles who posted the 18-12 win. DeSean Jackson was pivotal in Philadelphia’s Week 1 victory this season, catching eight passes for 154 yards and two major scores.. The Eagles looked terrible in the first half last week, but they were an entirely different team in the second. Suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to now carry that momentum over here vs. the inconsistent Falcons. Note that Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz finished 28 of 39 for 313 yards and three scores (also note that Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU victory.) ATL has a dynamic receiver in Julio Jones and while he did have a TD catch last weekend, he only had 31 yards total in his team’s listless 28-12 setback. If the Falcons’ defense had difficulty slowing down the Vikes vanilla offense, I have a hard time seeing it stopping Wentz and company in Week 2. I highly recommend a second look at the Eagles this weekend.

T.M. Prediction: 31-20 Philly.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:49 AM

James Patrick Sports Top Pair Sunday NFL Over / Under Total Selections
Chiefs vs. Raiders 4:05 pm est. CBS The Oakland Raiders made a ton of big moves this off-season, so no one's sleeping on them. The Raiders have drafted well the last two years and now they have a great GM in Mike Mayock and he has restocked the previously-bare offensive cupboard. Watch now as Carr and the Raiders get back to relevance and domination on offense, specifically in the passing attack. Carr will once again be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, lighting up opposing teams on a week-to-week basis.Oakland has been one of the most consistently poor defensive ballclubs this decade, failing to finish above 20th in points allowed every season since 2006.Andy Reid's squad will have a chance for as long as Patrick Mahomes is under center. The reigning MVP made it all look so effortless in 2018. Even taking into account Tyreek Hill's uncertain future with the team, the Chiefs' offense has enough talent to light up scoreboards. It's easy to forget that last season was Mahomes first as an NFL starter -- he's only going to get better. He leads an offense that has enough depth and talent to be one of the league's most potent. The Chiefs struggled all season long on defense last year, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most statistical categories.Don't see how this one isn't a shootout. Kansas City rung up 40 points in its opener at Jacksonville, and they have a much better defense than the Raiders. Last year the Chiefs put up 35 and 40 points in two games against Oakland, I think they can do it again. Oakland's defense played well on Monday against Denver but still gave up a bunch of big plays. The Chiefs defense surrendered 26 points to the Jaguars' weak offense, getting carved up by a rookie quarterback in the process. Derek Carr looked really good against the Denver defense, and I think that he will be able to hang 20 or more on this Chiefs defense. The 'over' is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two in Oakland. The 'over' is 7-2 in Kansas City's last nine games overall, and the 'over' is 16-5 in their last 21 road games. Look for a high-scoring shootout in the Wild West. (3*) Play. #282. Take Oakland Raiders vs. KC Saints vs. Rams 4:25 pm est. FOX This game needs no introduction after these teams met in a contentious NFC Championship game with a missed PI call ultimately leading to the new replay system now in place. This Rams offense is shaping up to be one of the best in the league behind Sean McVay who is now is credited with being an offensive genius.The Saints are also loaded on offense with a potent passing attack led by Drew Brees and a good running attack led by Alvin Kamara.Qb Drew Brees has been one of the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons and the Saints run the same kind of pass-happy, spread offense they have run since 2007. Brees has proven, again over many years to be a championship quality leader. The Saints QB keeps getting better with age. He's recorded a (100)-plus passer rating in each of his last three seasons. The Saints have finished among the top five scoring teams in the NFC. The team averages (27.9) points per game with Brees as a starter.The Saints can keep pace with anyone and will need to in this game. (5*) Pot of Gold Play. #283. Take New Orleans - LA Over the Total

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:49 AM

NFL over reaction to Week-1
5-STAR WAGER ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS (270) AS THEY TAKE ON THE NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS IN NFL ACTION SET TO START AT 1:00 PM EST, SEPTEMBER 15, 2019. This is the ultimate polar opposite game with the best team playing the worst team in the NFL. Miami is not a good team, but they are not as bad as they played in Sunday’s embarrassing loss to the Ravens. Further, the Patriots played an incredible game against the Steelers. So, a return to the nor is in store for this matchup. Not suggesting for a second that the Dolphins can shock the world and win the game, but 17.5 points are just too many points. This situational query has earned a solid 31-9 ATS record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The query requirements are to play on underdogs that were a terrible defense allowing 385 or more yards-per-game in the previous season. This query has gone 1-1 ATS in Week-1 action (Bengals covered against Seattle) and 12-5 ATS over the last five seasons. From the Machine Learning summary, the Patriots are projected to outgain the Dolphins by not more than 1.5 yards-per-Play (YPPL). In past games, teams that are installed as 14.5-point or greater underdogs and are not outgained by more than 1.5 YPPL are a solid 35-18-1 ATS for 66% winning bets and 2-52 straight-up (SU). So, the Patriots go to 2-0 and Miami covers the spread in this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:50 AM

JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Sep 15, 2019
Saints vs. Rams

1* Free NFL Pick on Los Angeles Rams -120

Free pick for Sunday's Week 3 card is to play the LA Rams on the money line at home against the Saints. People are just not buying into this Rams team this year. While LA won on at Carolina in Week 1, the offense didn't really impress. Goff threw for just 186 yards and Gurley not finding the endzone.

Saints are a team people are high on and a lot of people are looking to play New Orleans here because of what happened in last year's NFC Championship Game and the no-call on the obvious pass interference. I think all the value here is with the Rams.

Saints pulled off a miracle in their 30-28 win over the Texans on MNF in Week 1. That's a tough act to follow and New Orleans has to go way out west here on 1 less day of rest/prep. After watching the Texans rack up more than 400 yards, I think we see that Rams offense look a lot more like the unit we saw light up the NFL last year. Take Los Angeles!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:50 AM

STEVE JANUS
MLB | Sep 15, 2019
Brewers vs. Cardinals
1* Free Sharp Play on Cardinals -132

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:50 AM

CALVIN KING
NFL | Sep 15, 2019
Bears vs. Broncos
[1%] Free Play on Bears

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:50 AM

CHIP CHIRIMBES

New Orleans at L.A. Rams 4:25 ET

Rams (-) over Saints

Okay, revenge will be the storyline in New Orleans this week as we will be exposed over and over again of the mysterious non-pass-interference call in the playoffs last year. New Orleans staged a miraculous comeback to defeat the Texans Monday night and may still be riding high as they fly to Los Angeles. The Rams believed that they were the better team last year and they still feel that way now and could are less how the Saints feel about the non-call. But, here's the good stuff. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Los Angeles and they are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall. But there's more...The home team is 7-1 ATS (that loss was in the playoffs last season) and the Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five against the NFC. Take the RAMS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:50 AM

MARK WILSON
NFL | Sep 15, 2019
Eagles vs. Falcons
Free Play on Eagles -1 -115

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:51 AM

ASA

NFL PLAY ON Cincinnati (pick-em) over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This line opened with the Niners favored by 2 and has moved to Cincinnati now favored by 2. We completely agree with the move and while we don’t often like to chase big line moves, with the Bengals less than a FG we’ll grab it. The Bengals traveled west to take on Seattle last week and dominated much of the game. They outgained Seattle by nearly 200 yards but lost the game 21-20. Seattle averaged 6.1 YPP in the game while holding Seattle to 4.8 YPP. QB Andy Dalton had his career high in passing yards lighting up the Seattle secondary for 419 yards. New Bengal head coach Zac Taylor, a Sean McVay disciple, looks like he is already paying dividends for this offense. Blown scoring opportunities was the theme for Cincy. They pushed inside the Seattle 40 yard line 4 times in the 2nd half alone and came away with a total of 3 points on those drives. We think they’ll be much more efficient at home this week. San Fran made the long trip to Tampa last week and came away with a 31-17 win. They were fortunate to pick up the road win as Tampa had more yardage but turned the ball over 4 times. Two of those Buc turnovers were interceptions returned for TD’s. Thus the Niner offense only scored 14 points. QB Garoppolo looked rusty in his first start after missing the final 13 games last year and the offense only produced 4.3 YPP vs a Tampa defense that was terrible a year ago. Now San Fran will play in the Eastern time zone again this week and while they did stay in Ohio this week, this situation is not ideal. With the host looking improved and the line sitting where pretty much all they have to do is win to cover, we’ll take Cincinnati.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:54 AM

JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Sep 15, 2019
Colts vs. Titans

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Tennessee Titans -3

The Titans are tired of getting dominated by the Colts. They went 0-11 against Andrew Luck before his stunning retirement. They have lost 13 of the last 15 meetings overall. The two they won? Those came with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback in 2017. Now they get Brissett again and should be able to handle the Colts at home as only 3-point favorites. A lot of people are sleeping on the Titans, and that showed with their 43-13 trouncing of Cleveland on the road last week. They aren’t a flashy team and won’t make many headlines, but they play the game the right way. The Colts gave up 435 total yards to the Chargers on the road last week and now will be on the road for a second straight week after an overtime game. Teams playing two straight road games to open the season are 2-13 SU & 1-14 ATS in Week 2. Give me the Titans.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-15-2019, 08:54 AM

STEPHEN NOVER
NFL | Sep 15, 2019
Chargers vs. Lions
Chargers-114

Don't overthink this game. The Chargers are at least two levels higher than the Lions. They were the best road spread team last season, too. The Chargers are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS as road chalk the last two years since Anthony Lynn became head coach. Los Angeles has covered seven of its past eight road games. Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have proven more than capable of replacing holdout Melvin Gordon. The Chargers averaged six yards per rush opening week. I would take Philip Rivers over Matthew Stafford, too. Those downgrading the Chargers here point out LA will be without its best offensive lineman with left tackle Russell Okung out. But Detroit offensive left tackle Taylor Decker, who protects Stafford's blind side, gave up two sacks last week and is dealing with a back injury. Joey Bosa gives the Chargers the best pass rusher on the field. The Chargers are one of the few complete teams in the NFL without any discernible weakness. The Lions have many warts, including a vulnerable secondary, bad head coach and a horrendous 4-12 ATS record when meeting above .500 opponents.

Sunday 9-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 9-15-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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