Saturday 9-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

951ST LOUIS -952 CHICAGO CUBS
ST LOUIS are 10-20 SU (-16.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

953NY METS -954 CINCINNATI
NY METS are 20-8 SU (12.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season in the current season.

955WASHINGTON -956 MIAMI
WASHINGTON is 69-43 SU (22.3 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

957PITTSBURGH -958 MILWAUKEE
PITTSBURGH is 18-32 SU (-20.4 Units) vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

959SAN FRANCISCO -960 ATLANTA
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-2 SU (13.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

961ARIZONA -962 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 35-56 SU (-29.5 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

963COLORADO -964 LA DODGERS
COLORADO is 15-37 SU (-25.6 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

965TORONTO -966 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 42-23 SU (25.8 Units) in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

967CHI WHITE SOX -968 DETROIT
DETROIT is 21-49 SU (-29.8 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

969BOSTON -970 TAMPA BAY
BOSTON is 18-44 SU (-31 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

971SEATTLE -972 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 33-56 SU (-31.8 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.

973KANSAS CITY -974 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 24-10 SU (12.8 Units) vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

975LA ANGELS -976 HOUSTON
LA ANGELS are 27-43 SU (-20.3 Units) in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

977TEXAS -978 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 37-14 SU (24.4 Units) vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

979PHILADELPHIA -980 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 59-34 SU (25 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, September 21


National League
Cardinals (87-67) @ Cubs (82-72)
Hudson is 6-1, 1.59 in his last seven starts. Team in his starts: 21-9
5-inning record: 15-9-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-30 Over/under: under 6-2 last eight

Quintana allowed 11 runs in 5.1 IP in his last two starts; he is 1-0, 3.60 in two starts vs St Louis this year. Team in his starts: 18-11
5-inning record: 16-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-29 Over/under: last three over

St Louis lost four of last seven games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-3-1 last 13 games.

Cubs lost their last four games; over is 8-6 in their last 14 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 9-6-1 last 16 games.

Mets (80-73) @ Reds (72-82)
Wheeler is 2-0, 1.44 in his last four starts; he is starts vs Cincy. Team in his starts: 16-13
5-inning record: 12-13-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-29 Over/under: 16-11-2

DeSclafani is 2-2, 2.37 in his last six starts; he is starts vs NYM. Team in his starts: 14-15
5-inning record: 10-11-8 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-29 Over/under: last six under

Mets are 9-3 in last 12 road games; under is 4-2 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1 last six games.

Cincy won five of last eight games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-1-1 last six games.

Nationals (84-68) @ Marlins (53-100)
Strasburg is 2-1, 2.52 in his last four starts; he is 4-0, 1.19 in four starts vs Miami this year. Team in his starts: 19-12
5-inning record: 14-12-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-31 Over/under: under 5-1 last six

Hernandez is 0-0, 6.16 in his last four starts; he is 0-1, 6.10 in two starts vs Washington this year. Team in his starts: 6-9
5-inning record: 4-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-15 Over/under: 6-8-1

Nationals lost four of last seven games; under is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1-1 last seven games.

Miami lost nine of last 11 games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3 last eight games.

Giants (74-80) @ Braves (95-60)
Cueto is 1-0, 0.00 in two starts (10 IP); he is starts vs Atlanta. Team in his starts: 2-0
5-inning record: 2-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-2 Over/under: 1-1

Fried is 0-2, 12.28 in his last two starts; he is starts vs SF. Team in his starts: 21-8
5-inning record: 15-12-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-29 Over/under: 17-10-2

Giants won three of last five games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.

Atlanta lost three of last five games; they clinched NL East Friday- under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-2 last five home games.

Pirates (65-89) @ Brewers (84-70)
Marvel is 0-2, 9.00 in two starts. Team in his starts: 0-2
5-inning record: 0-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-2 Over/under: 1-1

Davies is 2-0, 2.37 in his last four starts (19 IP) ; he is 2-0, 2.31 in four starts vs Pitt this year. Team in his starts: 17-12
5-inning record: 12-10-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-29 Over/under: under 6-1 last seven

Pirates lost their last seven games; over is 12-4 in their last 16 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-4 last ten games.

Milwaukee won 13 of last 15 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-0-2 last six games.

Diamondbacks (79-75) @ Padres (69-85)
Weaver is making his first start since May 26; he is 1-4, 8.38 in nine starts; he is starts vs San Diego. Team in his starts: 3-6
5-inning record: 1-7-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-9 Over/under: 7-2

Quantrill is 0-5, 12.31 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 6-10
5-inning record: 6-9-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-16 Over/under: over 6-1 last seven

Arizona lost eight of last 12 games; under is 7-5 in their last 12 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-4 last nine games.

Padres lost eight of last nine games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2 last seven home games.

Rockies (66-88) @ Dodgers (99-55)
Freeland is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts; he is starts vs LA. Team in his starts: 7-13
5-inning record: 7-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-20 Over/under: under 5-2 last seven

Ryu is 0-3, 7.27 in his last five starts; he is 0-1, 5.76 in four starts vs Colorado this year. Team in his starts: 18-9
5-inning record: 17-6-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-27 Over/under: 13-13-1

Rockies lost 19 of last 22 road games; under is 4-2 in their last five road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-2 last eight games.

LA won seven of last ten games; over is 5-2 in their last seven home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3 last eight games.

American League
Blue Jays (63-91) @ New York (100-55)
Zeuch is 0-0, 5.59 in two games; they might use an opener. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Paxton is 9-0, 2.50 in his last nine starts; he is 1-0, 7.07 in three starts vs Toronto this year. Team in his starts: 18-9
5-inning record: 18-7-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 14-27 Over/under: 17-8-2

Blue Jays won seven of last ten games; over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3-1 last 11 games.

New York won eight of last 13 games; under is 8-2 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-1-1 last 11 home games.

Mariners (65-89) @ Orioles (50-104)
Sheffield is 0-1, 5.70 in five starts. Team in his starts: 3-2
5-inning record: 2-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-5 Over/under: 2-2-1

Wojchiechowski is 1-1, 6.43 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 4-10
5-inning record: 4-9-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-14 Over/under: over 7-3 last ten

Mariners won five of their last six games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 8-6 last 14 road games.

Baltimore lost eight of last 11 home games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-2-1 last ten games.

White Sox (67-86) @ Tigers (45-108)
Nova is 1-3, 8.22 in his last five starts; he is 1-0, 4.95 in three starts vs Detroit this year. Team in his starts: 14-17
5-inning record: 13-12-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-31 Over/under: last four over

Alexander is 1-3, 6.64 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 2-4
5-inning record: 3-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-6 Over/under: 1-3-2

Chicago lost six of last nine games; over is 15-6 in their last 21 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 8-7 last 15 road games.

Tigers lost eight of last nine games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3 last nine games.

Red Sox (80-73) @ Rays (91-63)
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Glasnow is 0-0, 3.60 in two opens (5 IP) since coming off IL; he is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Boston this year. Team in his starts: 8-2
5-inning record: 9-0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-10 Over/under: 1-7-2

Red Sox are 7-4 in last 11 road games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3 last ten road games.

Tampa Bay won its last six home games; over is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-3 last eight games.

Royals (56-99) @ Twins (95-59)
Sparkman is 1-3, 8.87 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 6.61 in three starts vs Minnesota this year. Team in his starts: 6-15
5-inning record: 6-12-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 12-21 Over/under: last four over

Berrios is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts; he is 0-0, 3.21 in two starts vs KC this year. Team in his starts: 18-12
5-inning record: 16-8-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-30 Over/under: 16-11-3

Royals lost 10 of last 13 games; over is 8-6 in their last 14 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3 last ten games.

Minnesota won six of last eight games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 11-5 last 16 games.

Angels (69-85) @ Astros (101-53)
Sandoval is 0-2, 4.94 in six starts; they might use an opener. Team in his starts: 2-4
5-inning record: 1-3-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-6 Over/under: 3-3

Miley is 1-1, 13.50 in his last four starts; he is 3-0, 2.76 in three starts vs LAA. Team in his starts: 22-9
5-inning record: 17-11-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-31 Over/under: last four over

Angels lost nine of last 11 games; under is 3-2 in their last five road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-2-1 last eight games.

Houston won its last six games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.

Rangers (74-80) @ A’s (93-61)
Burke is 0-0, 9.00 in his last three starts. Team in his starts: 3-2
5-inning record: 1-2-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-5 Over/under: 2-3

Manaea is 2-0, 0.50 in his three starts; he is starts vs Texas. Team in his starts: 2-1
5-inning record: 2-0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-3 Over/under: 0-3

Rangers lost their last six games; under is 4-0 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-1 last four games.

Oakland won nine of last ten games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-2 last five games.

Interleague
Phillies (78-74) @ Indians (91-63)
Vargas is 0-2, 9.39 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 3-6
5-inning record: 4-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-9 Over/under: 3-6

Plesac is 2-2, 4.01 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 13-6
5-inning record: 8-7-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-19 Over/under: 10-9

Phillies won four of last six road games; under is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3 last ten games.

Cleveland won its last five games; under is 4-0 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-2 last five games.

Umpires
StL-Chi: Under is 10-4 in last 14 LBarrett games.
NY-Cin: Underdogs won five of last six Hoye games.
Wsh-Mia: Under is 6-1 in first 5 innings of last seven Segal games.
Pitt-Mil: Four of last six Nelson games went over.
SF-Atl: Four of last six Kulpa games went over.
Az-SD: Favorites won three of four Tosi games.
Colo-LA: Over is 9-0-1 in last ten Bucknor games.

Tor-NY: Underdog are 5-3 in last eight Rehak games.
Chi-Det: Under is 7-1 in last eight Miller games.
Bos-TB: Last four Hickox games stayed under.
Sea-Balt: Four of last five Hamari games went over.
KC-Minn: Underdogs won four of last six Wolf games.
LA-Hst: Six of last seven Blakney games stayed under.
Tex-A’s: Over is 6-2 in first 5 innings of last eight Davis games.

Phil-Clev: Over is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Marquez games.

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/5
Ariz 21-71……18-68……39
Atl 21-69…..25-71……46
Cubs 18-67……25-70…..43
Reds 24-67……27-73…..51
Colo 17-72……26-66……43
LA 20-67……25-73……45
Mia 13-66……20-70…..33
Milw 21-67…..25-71…..46
Mets 26-64……21-66…..47
Philly 17-66…..21-70……38
Pitt 25-71…..18-67……43
StL 17-68…..20-70……37
SD 19-68……21-68…..40
SF 10-71……15-66……25
Wash 22-69…..21-67……43

Orioles 20-71…….23-69..….43
Boston 20-69…….24-69……44
W Sox 16-71…….18-68…….34
Clev 20-69…..21-71……..41
Det 21-71……18-65……..39
Astros 26-70…..17-69……..43
KC 19-68…..24-72……..43
Angels 26-72……15-67…….41
Twins 28-71……18-68……46
NYY 21-66……27-75……48
A’s 17-66…..19-71…….36
Sea 19-71…..17-69…….36
TB 24-70…..22-70……46
Texas 17-73…..24-67…….41
Toronto 18-71…..19-71…….37

Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 81-61 NL, favorites -$1,355 under 67-64-5
AL @ NL– 66-66, favorites -$2,100 over 71-58-8
Total: 147-127 NL, favorites -$3,455 Over 135-125-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, September 21

Trend Report

New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
NY Yankees is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
NY Yankees is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games
Toronto is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Toronto is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Chicago Cubs
Chi Cubs is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 7 games
Chi Cubs is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Chi Cubs is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Chi Cubs's last 16 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 12 of St. Louis's last 16 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs

Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 11 games at home
Cincinnati is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing NY Mets
Cincinnati is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against NY Mets
New York Mets
NY Mets is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Mets is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games
NY Mets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Cincinnati
NY Mets is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Boston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Boston
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing at home against Boston
Boston Red Sox
Boston is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Boston is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games on the road
Boston is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Boston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Boston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay

Detroit Tigers
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
Detroit is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Detroit is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Chi White Sox
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chi White Sox is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chi White Sox's last 10 games
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Chi White Sox's last 21 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 8 games when playing Detroit
Chi White Sox is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Chi White Sox is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chi White Sox's last 13 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Miami Marlins
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Miami is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
Miami is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games at home
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Baltimore is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
Baltimore is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Seattle
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Mariners
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Seattle is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games
Seattle is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Baltimore
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore

Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Cleveland's last 14 games
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

Houston Astros
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Houston is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Houston is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Los Angeles Angels
LA Angels is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
LA Angels is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
LA Angels is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Angels is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Angels is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
LA Angels is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
LA Angels is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
LA Angels is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Minnesota's last 18 games
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota

Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games at home
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 11 games at home
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games
San Francisco is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Atlanta
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

San Diego Padres
San Diego is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
San Diego is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Arizona
San Diego is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
Arizona is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing San Diego
Arizona is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego

Oakland Athletics
Oakland is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games at home
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Texas
Oakland is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Texas
Texas Rangers
Texas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games
Texas is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Texas's last 14 games on the road
Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Texas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Texas is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Oakland

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
LA Dodgers is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games
Colorado is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Colorado is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games on the road
Colorado is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, September 21


Toronto @ NY Yankees

Game 965-966
September 21, 2019 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Zeuch) 15.716
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 17.317
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-320
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-320); Under

St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs

Game 951-952
September 21, 2019 @ 2:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Hudson) 17.774
Chicago Cubs
(Quintana) 16.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-130
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+110); N/A

NY Mets @ Cincinnati

Game 953-954
September 21, 2019 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Wheeler) 14.9`71
Cincinnati
(DeSclfni) 16.392
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Mets
-135
9
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+115); Over

Washington @ Miami

Game 955-956
September 21, 2019 @ 6:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 17.304
Miami
(Hernandez) 14.664
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-245
8
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-245); Under

Chicago White Sox @ Detroit

Game 967-968
September 21, 2019 @ 6:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Nova) 13.871
Detroit
(Alexander) 14.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago White Sox
-130
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+110); Over

Boston @ Tampa Bay

Game 969-970
September 21, 2019 @ 6:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Lakins) 14.062
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 16.556
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-220
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-220); Over

Seattle @ Baltimore

Game 971-972
September 21, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Sheffield) 15.032
Baltimore
(Wojchwski) 13.608
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-110
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-110); Over

Pittsburgh @ Milwaukee

Game 957-958
September 21, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Marvel) 11.277
Milwaukee
(Davies) 17.346
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 6
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-235
9
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-235); Over

Philadelphia @ Cleveland

Game 979-980
September 21, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Vargas) 16.156
Cleveland
(Plesac) 15.234
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-160
10
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+140); Over

LA Angels @ Houston

Game 975-976
September 21, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Sandoval) 13.555
Houston
(Miley) 18.277
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A

Kansas City @ Minnesota

Game 973-974
September 21, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Sparkman) 14.303
Minnesota
(Berrios) 15.980
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-325
10
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-325); Over

San Francisco @ Atlanta

Game 959-960
September 21, 2019 @ 7:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Cueto) 15.739
Atlanta
(Fried) 14.742
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
N/A

Arizona @ San Diego

Game 961-962
September 21, 2019 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Weaver) 14.230
San Diego
(Quantrill) 15.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+120); Under

Texas @ Oakland

Game 977-978
September 21, 2019 @ 9:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Burke) 14.956
Oakland
(Manaea) 18.837
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 4
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-320
9
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-320); Under

Colorado @ LA Dodgers

Game 963-964
September 21, 2019 @ 9:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Colorado
(Gonzalez) 13.865
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 17.397
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-320
9
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-320); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Moves - Week 4
Matt Blunt

Obviously the oddsmakers weren't to happy with the fact that I got out the broom for the sweep with these selections in Week 2, as they flipped that broom around and spanked my ass with the handle to sweep Week 3's plays into the loser's circle. That's twice this year that betting Alabama totals has burned me, but Nick Saban has never really been a man of the people anyways, unless you are cemented to your seat for all four quarters.

Backing the Clemson 'over' never came close, as the defending National Champs brought their best form on defense yet again, holding Syracuse to just 6 points in a 41-6 laugher. But when you're involved in games with the top two teams in the country on the field, having them show up on either side of the ball isn't exactly surprising.

It's on to Week 4's selections of total moves plays though, and one thing's for sure, I'll be on the sidelines for Alabama's game this week.

YTD: 3-3 ATS

Week 4 Total move to disagree with:

Michigan State/Northwestern from 39 to 38

Not the biggest move south by any means on this number, as this Michigan State Spartans team is looking to rebound from a highly disappointing first loss of the year. Getting away from East Lansing and all the discussion about them losing as a 15-point favorite probably is a good thing in terms of them rallying around one another as they open up Big 10 play.

While there is no question that Michigan State's defense is one of the best in the country this year, but it's the Spartans offense that unquestionably has to pick things up and start carrying their own weight. That won't be easy against a Northwestern team that's good on defense as well, but Mark Dantonio has had a knack for knowing how to move the ball against the Wildcats and I doubt that changes this week.

Each of the last three meetings between these teams has cashed 'over' tickets, with total point numbers of 48, 70 (OT game), and 94. Each time the two teams have come into the game with the expectation from the betting market that it will be a brutal defensive slugfest – not total closed higher then 43 – and the two schools completely flipped the script in that regard. With the way both defenses have played this season with neither of them allowing more then 17 points against in any one game, that kind of sounds familiar doesn't it?

Furthermore, Northwestern as covered the spread in all three of those games, have scored no fewer then 29 points themselves in any one of those contests, and just like all three of those contests, they are catching points (+9) again this week. You give a 9-point underdog 20+ points on their home field, and chances are this total of 39 will be left in the dark by the time the midway point of the 3rd quarter rolls around as 'over' bettors smile at is as they surpass it.

With the betting percentage numbers up at VegasInsider.com showing a healthy majority (75%+) on the low side of this number, it's best to be on the side of history between these two teams repeating itself this week as we get a lot of points relatively again. Situationally, Michigan State's offense knows it needs to be extremely better to stop putting the burden of each week's result on their defense, while Northwestern won't shy away from doing what they have to Dantonio's defenses the past three years and take full advantage of their opportunities.

Week 4 Total move to to agree with:

UCF/Pittsburgh from 58 to 61

This is another minority play based on the betting percentages currently up on the site (75%+), and while it is easily understandable as to why there is healthy support for the 'under' in the Michigan State/Northwestern game, the case for it here is a bit puzzling.

Yes, Pittsburgh has been a great 'under' team dating back to the end of last year as they are on a 0-7 O/U run as a program, but how much success they expect to have against a UCF attack that's put up 45 or more points in every game this year can't be a lot. The Knights have surprised me with just how good their offense remains to be this season, and even though Pittsburgh's defense has looked good for the bulk of 2019 – the season opening 30-14 loss to Virginia was a tad rough – I believe you've got to expect another 40+ point effort from UCF this week.

Maybe it's the fact that Pittsburgh played in a slugfest type game against Penn State last week and that's still fresh in the minds of the majority of the betting market, but remember conditions in that game weren't ideal, and that rivalry does tend to be a war. I mean, Pittsburgh's defense did little to stop UCF in this game a year ago (45-14 UCF win) and based on that alone, you've got to figure that Pittsburgh knows they've got to adopt a much more aggressive offensive approach to have a chance at pulling off the upset this season.

Just in terms of game script, if you give the Knights somewhere in the 35-45 point range for this game as it's not hard to do given their offensive performances this year, a 10-11 road chalk line suggests that Pittsburgh will be able to put up 24-34 points themselves in many likely scenarios. The lowest of those ranges don't eclipse the current number – hence the total move up – but the highest of those ranges eclipses the current number by multiple scores. That's quite the margin of error you've got in a game where you are also going against the majority of the market seemingly, even if you are betting into a bit of a bad number currently.

Other Notable Moves

Down
Central Michigan-Miami, Fl.: 51 to 48
Tennessee-Florida: 52 to 49
Nevada-UTEP: 54.5 to 52

Up
Bowling Green-Kent State: 59.5 to 62
Stanford-Central Florida: 59.5 to 62
Notre Dame-Georgia: 56 to 58.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Essentials
Tony Mejia

Here’s a look at what must be considered before wagering on Saturday's slate in all FBS vs. FBS matchups:

Early Starts

Louisiana-Monroe at Iowa State (-18.5/55), 12 p.m. ET, FS1: The Warhawks were prepared to go into a third OT with FSU last time they were on the field but saw their kicker blow the extra point in a grueling 45-44 loss in Tallahassee. With a week off to heal up, ULM will take another shot at a power-five and catches Iowa State in a vulnerable spot. The Cyclones suffered a disappointing 18-17 home loss to rival Iowa when a muffed punt prevented one last Brock Purdy-led drive. Big 12 play opens next week at Baylor. Matt Campbell faces a difficult task in getting his team focused on handling business against a dangerous team that comes to town with a veteran offensive line and a senior QB in Caleb Evans. RB Josh Johnson played sparingly last season but the former Ole Miss commit ranks fifth in the country in rushing yards.

Connecticut at Indiana (-27.5/56.5), 12 p.m. ET, BTN: The Huskies turned to Jack Zergiotis, a true freshman from Montreal, after senior transfer Mike Beaudry was banged up and have now committed to him as the guy the rest of the way. It makes sense to let the kid grow into the role considering UConn will be an underdog in the majority of their remaining games, and head coach Randy Edsall plans to give him a long leash in airing it out to senior Ardell Brown and freshmen Matt Drayton and Cameron Ross. A young roster will make their first road appearance of the season and got good news as tackle Matt Peart overcame an injury scare and will anchor the line. The Hoosiers come off a 51-10 home loss to Ohio State, missing dual-threat QB Michael Penix due to an upper body injury. His status for this one remains up in the air and it looks increasingly likely that junior backup Peyton Ramsey will start. UConn owns a 2-0 lead in this series.

Michigan State (-9/37) at Northwestern, 12 p.m. ET, ABC: Both teams have already lost to Pac-12 schools entering this conference opener, so the loser faces the season going off the rails before the first month. Mark Dantonio’s seat is suddenly feeling warm on the heels of a 7-6 season and discord could grow louder if his team falls to 22-20 over the past three years with a loss in Evanston. Northwestern has won the last three matchups, last losing to Sparty in ’13. Brian Lewerke has been inconsistent and the team is on yet another left tackle due to injury with Tyler Higby stepping in for Kevin Jarvis. Clayton Thorson never lost to Michigan State, but Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson is just getting comfortable and threw his first touchdown pass against UNLV in a game the Wildcats failed to cover. It’s time to see if Northwestern has any weapons capable of doing damage against a Michigan State unit that ranks third in the country in total defense. Early returns against Stanford weren’t promising. Kyric McGowan and JJ Jefferson must generate plays downfield to keep the Spartan defense from locking down RB Drake Anderson as they look to keep Northwestern from reaching its projected team total of 13.5/14 points.

Boston College (-18/57.5) at Rutgers, 12 p.m ET, BTN: The Scarlet Knights won’t have starting QB McLane Carter, the effective Texas Tech transfer, who hasn’t cleared concussion protocol after being dinged up at Iowa. Sophomore Art Sitkowski will see his first action of the season after throwing 18 interceptions and just four touchdowns as a true freshman. Coming off a 30-0 loss at the Hawkeyes, Rutgers will look to end a 14-game losing streak against fellow Power-5 schools. The Eagles will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss to Kansas in which they surrendered 567 yards. First-year defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan better get things figured out here since BC’s ACC slate the rest of the way is taxing and there’s a visit to Notre Dame the whole program has been pointing toward. Losing to the Jayhawks can derail a season in terms of finger-pointing, so this trip to Piscataway has acquired increased importance.

Western Michigan at Syracuse (-4.5/65.5), 12 p.m. ET, ACCN: Dino Babers will look to get his season back on track against a familiar foe given his history of success in the MAC at Bowling Green and at ‘Cuse, where he’s 2-0 against teams from his old league since taking over. That includes a 55-42 win in Kalamazoo last season, but Eric Dungey ran for 200 yards and had to come into keep that game from getting away from the Orange. Tommy DeVito has really struggled with miscues in blowout losses to Maryland and Clemson and didn’t look sharp at Liberty so this will be a big spot for him to start generating some momentum against a defense he should be able to move the ball against. Another rough outing could lead to an upset inside the Dome since the Broncos are coming off a 57-10 rout of the same Georgia State team that went into Tennessee and won. Senior QB Jon Wassink has put up nice numbers of late and has a reliable receiving corps and RB LeVante Bellamy leads the MAC’s top stable of backs. If the Broncos offensive line can win their share of battles this game should come down to the final minutes.

Michigan at Wisconsin (-3.5/45), 12 p.m. ET, FOX: Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines enter a game as an underdog for the first time since losing to Ohio State at home in 2017. Nearly losing to Army after failing to hammer Middle Tennessee has shaken confidence in Michigan despite all that talent on their roster. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones may debut and QB Shea Patterson should be able to move around a little better than he has after suffering an early oblique injury, which gives Michigan hope it can win in Camp Randall for the first time since 2001. The Badgers have outscored South Florida and Central Michigan by a combined margin of 110-0 behind a dominant defense and rushing attack. Safety Scott Nelson has been lost for the season and the caliber of competition is about to skyrocket, so we’re going to see what Wisconsin is all about on the heels of a 35-13 loss when these teams met in Ann Arbor last October. QB Jack Coan is off to a strong start and will need to be the x-factor in avoiding mistakes against Michigan’s defense.

California at Ole Miss (-2.5/42.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU: Teams from the Sun Belt, Mountain West and American have joined the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC in taking down SEC squads already this season. The Pac-12 still hasn’t broken through due to Auburn’s last-second comeback over Oregon but has a decent shot here if the Golden Bears are able to get their body clocks up for work earlier than usual. Cal’s defense is legit, coming through to fuel wins over an FCS power, nationally-ranked Washington in Seattle and last week’s win over North Texas and active NCAA passing leader Mason Fine. None of those teams has managed 20 points against the Bears, so Ole Miss will face a major test after figuring a few things out over the past few weeks against Arkansas and overmatched Southeastern Louisiana. Freshman Matt Corral-to-sophomore Elijah Moore isn’t as imposing as the punch the Rebels have packed in the past, but RB Scottie Phillips has picked up the slack and gives the offense balance. Cal shut down Ole Miss in 2017 as Justin Wilcox and Matt Luke met as first-year head coaches, winning 27-16 in Berkeley.

Tennessee at Florida (-14/49), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN: With QB Feleipe Franks done for the season, the Gators will turn to Kyle Trask, who backed up Houston’s D’Eriq King in high school and is therefore making his first start in six years at any level as he takes the field to face the Vols. Trask helped Florida hold off Kentucky in Lexington and will look to help continue their run of dominance over Tennessee to 14 wins in 15 tries. A sturdy Gators defense may have a number of injury-related obstacles to overcome with DE Jabari Zuniga and corner CJ Henderson nursing ankle injuries. An already thin Florida secondary wouldn’t easily overcome the loss of Henderson, so keep an eye on that as Jarrett Guarantano comes into Gainesville looking to rebound from a brutal, a 7-for-18, 2-pick game in his only game against Todd Grantham’s UF defense. The Vols will welcome back corner Bryce Thompson, a Freshman All-American last season.

Southern Miss at Alabama (-38/61.5), 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Crimson Tide surrendered 324 passing yards as South Carolina’s Ryan Hilinski fired off 57 throws, completing 36 as the Gamecocks tested their freshman against an elite defense all afternoon in Columbia. Alabama will see the most prolific passer it has faced to date in Southern Miss’ senior QB Jack Abraham, who threw for 463 yards and two scores last week in completing his first 17 passes against Troy. The national leader in completion percentage as a junior threw for a modest 215 yards against Auburn and wasn’t helped by Southern Miss rushing for 2.1 yards per carry in a 24-13 loss against the defense most comparable to what they’ll see against the Tide here. Tua Tagovailoa and the ‘Bama offense has averaged over 50 points per game through the season’s first three games and faces a secondary that surrendered over 500 yards through the air against Troy last week. Top linebacker Racheem Boothe left last week’s game but is expected to return despite sporting a walking boot. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see Alabama surpass the 62-point mark .

LSU (-24/62.5) at Vanderbilt, 12 p.m. ET, SECN: Joe Burrow has been the nation’s most efficient quarterback this season and will look for a better showing against the winless Commodores than Georgia’s Jake Fromm and Purdue’s Elijah Sindelar, who each put up good numbers in blowing out Vandy. LSU’s offense is averaging 55 points entering this trip to Nashville and faces a defense that has surrendered over 500 yards per game. LSU should benefit from Vandy injuries on both sides of the ball. Vandy is the most penalized team at FBS level through two games and lists left tackle Devin Cochran as a game-time decision. If he doesn’t go, it’s hard to imagine the offense gaining much traction.


Afternoon Delights

UCF (-11/61) at Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The Knights won’t play another Power-5 until a bowl game, which if they get their wish, would be part of the national semifinals. UCF still must clear road hurdles at Cincinnati, Temple and Tulane, but it will be favored in every remaining regular-season contest and would have swept both its scheduled games against “big boys” if it handles business here after routing Stanford in Orlando last weekend. Freshman Dillon Gabriel has emerged as the top quarterback in the program, winning the starter’s gig over Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and junior holdover Darriel Mack, Jr., who has returned from injury. Following the footsteps of fellow Hawaiian McKenzie Milton, Gabriel secured his spot by throwing for 347 yards and four TDs against the Cardinal and has been incredible with his reads and ball placement down the field. He’ll be facing another highly thought of NFL prospect in safety Damar Hamlin after connecting with top WR Gabriel Davis to repeatedly torch Stanford CB Paulson Adebo, so a full national coming-out party is possible given the national broadcast. Pitt lost 45-14 to UCF in Central Florida last season but does have weapons on both sides of the ball that can make this a much closer game.

Washington (-8.5/49) at BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Huskies dropped their Pac-12 opener to Cal and seem likely to take a step back from contention after 32 wins in the past three years, but Chris Petersen has repeated proven he shouldn’t be written off. We’ll know more about whether a down year is indeed inevitable after this one since we’re not really sure how good BYU is either. Washington had a late 35-0 lead before the Cougs scored a late TD in last year’s meeting in Seattle, but this game is expected to be much closer. After opening the season with a lopsided loss to rival Utah, wins against Tennessee and USC has restored hope in Provo. Zach Wilson has gone from next-in-line to ordinary to favorite son again, answering questions about being the Mormon Manziel. The Cougs defense has risen up when they’ve needed to late in games but could be without linebacker Zayne Anderson and safety Sawyer Powell. BYU is staging a “white-out” to try and pull off an upset by rattling QB Jacob Eason in his first road start with U-Dub after transferring in from Georgia. Creating mistakes with pressure will be essential to a BYU upset bid.

Appalachian State at North Carolina (-2.5/58), 3:30 p.m. ET: The Mountaineers have dominated the first two games of the Eli Drinkwitz era but get their crack at their Super Bowl for the season as they visit Chapel Hill. The former NC State offensive coordinator should be well-versed in the Tar Heels’ personnel but will have to adjust to Mack Brown and his staff, who have certainly put a lot of their tendencies on tap since they’ve been involved in so many tight games to open the season. Freshman QB Sam Howell has lived up to the hype, showing poise beyond his years and a great ability to make plays, and he won’t be looking past this game since his parents are alumni and his brother and sister are Mountaineers. He’s been at his best in fourth quarters and should be tough to contain if this is close. Appalachian State is roughly three hours from Chapel Hill and will provide the final opportunity for standout QB Zac Thomas to light up a Power-5 this season given the Sun Belt’s bowl ties. A hot, sunny day could set the stage for a shootout.

Auburn at Texas A&M (-4/48), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: Freshman Bo Nix will make his first true road start as the Tigers look to win a third straight game in this series. Before the Sept. 7 loss to Clemson, last season’s 28-24 loss at Auburn was the Aggies’ most recent defeat under Jimbo Fisher, so this SEC opener has been circled on the schedule as a true springboard game for how this season is going to go for A&M considering they host Alabama on Oct. 12 and close with visits to Georgia at LSU. The pretender or contender thing will be decided today for both teams since Auburn will face all of those teams too, but starting 4-0 would certainly make for an easier ride for Gus Malzahn, who has already escaped disaster once thanks to a frantic comeback over Oregon in Week 1. A&M blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at Auburn last season that Kellen Mond had a hand in squandering, so he’ll need to respond by protecting the ball against the Tigers’ defensive front and minimizing miscues while keeping plays alive. The Ags are 9-1-1 ATS over their past 11 games at Kyle Field, with the lone loss coming in that 7OT win over LSU that the Tigers covered despite a 74-72 loss. The lesson here is that A&M has grown pretty reliable at covering the number at home.

Louisville at Florida State (-6.5/60.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The ‘Noles dropped their home opener to Boise State and the ACC opener at Virginia last week, but Willie Taggart’s buyout is too large for him not to get another season so long as his team doesn’t continue embarrassing him. FSU has played above-average teams and have had chances to win before sabotaging itself with defensive breakdowns and mental errors like penalties and turnovers, so there’s hope the team can still turn things around. It sounds like QB James Blackman is losing his grip on the job since the plan is to take a look at Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook early in a series here. Scott Satterfield has been forced to play three quarterbacks through three games due to injuries and lists Puma Pass as a game-time decision. Malik Cunningham is also available to start and freshman Evan Conley could see more action, so there are a lot of variables in play. Whoever starts will be doing plenty of handing off to redshirt freshman RB Javian Hawkins, who ranks 11th nationally in rushing and will be playing back in his home state.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Monte Andrews


BAD NEWS AT BOTH ENDS

The Tennessee Volunteers finally hit the win column last time out – but they'll be in tough to make it two straight as they tangle with the host Florida Gators in a Saturday afternoon encounter. While the Gators have tabbed inexperienced Kyle Trask as the starting quarterback in place of the injured Feleipe Franks, they'll likely lean on ground attack that has struggled to date. However, the Gators ground game should light up a Volunteers run defense that has been gashed for 157 yards per game and five touchdowns. Florida also has the edge on defense, having racked up an NCAA-best 16 sacks through three games.

Tennessee has allowed five sacks in three games, but hasn't faced the kind of pressure it will have to deal with Saturday. Look for Florida to control possession on the ground and bottle up the Vols' offense; we suggest the under on Tennessee's team total.


IT’S ALL RUNNING SMOOTHLY

The Washington Huskies aren't afraid to run the football – and they'll likely be doing a lot of it Saturday afternoon as they visit BYU. The Cougars have already knocked off a Pac-12 opponent in USC this season, but could find themselves helpless to slow down a Huskies rush attack that is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per carry behind No. 1 running back Salvon Ahmed (5.6 YPC, 2 TDs). BYU has been torched for 225 rushing yards per game on a 4.75 YPC average through three games, and allowed the Huskies to rack up 187 yards (5.1 YPC) in last season's humbling 35-7 defeat.

BYU comes in with one of the worst time-of-possession averages in the country – and with Washington clearly superior in the ground game, the Huskies are in a great position to cover the spread.


HOW LOW IS TOO LOW?

Oddsmakers are no fools, which is why they've slapped a rock-bottom total on Saturday's anticipated defensive struggle between host Northwestern and Michigan State. This game is sitting in the mid-to-high 30s, which should entice some bettors to say "that's too low" – but the real focus should be on the Spartans themselves, who fell flat offensively against Arizona State but have two things working in their favor Saturday. Offensive lineman and NFL draft prospect Jon Runyan will make his first start of the year, while running back Elijah Collins (281 yards) is on fire and should give MSU some much-needed gains on the ground.

With the Wildcats struggling on offense while ranking third-last in the Big Ten in both yards per carry against (4.56) and rushing yards per game allowed (175.3), the Spartans are in good position to cover at -9. And it doesn't hurt, either, that the road team is an incredible 14-2 ATS in the last 16 meetings.


HEY, GUYS, CHILL!

If NCAA football had a trophy for good behavior, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane would probably crash the ceremony and steal the award for themselves. The Golden Hurricane look to avoid another penalty-filled mess as they host Wyoming on Saturday. Tulsa enters the weekend as the most penalized team in the FBS in terms of distance, racking up 341 yards worth of infractions while ranking second in total flags (37). They had 18 penalties in last weeks loss to Oklahoma State, and were fortunate to still convert the cover the week before despite being flagged 12 times in a 34-16 win over San Jose State.

Between Tulsa's lack of discipline and Wyoming averaging an incredible 241.3 rushing yards per game (28th-most in the FBS), the Cowboys look like a good bet to gain chunks of yardage on the ground and via a parade of yellow fabric. We like them to win this one outright as slight road underdogs.


SIT WILL START

Artur Sitkowski is in, and McLane Carter is out as the Rutgers Scarlet Knights prepare for a Saturday encounter with rival Boston College.

Sitkowski will take over as the starting quarterback while Carter remains in the concussion protocol after getting knocked out of the Scarlet Knights' 30-0 loss to Iowa in Week 2. Sitkowski came on in relief but completed just 4 of 11 pass attempts for 19 yards with an interception. Sitkowski wasn't any better last season, completing just 49.1 percent of his passes while compiling 18 interceptions against just four touchdown passes.

The Eagles might have just given up 48 points to Kansas, but the Jayhawks didn't have Sitkowski under center. Look to Boston College to cover with ease in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football Saturday odds and line moves: Sharp, public Georgia action has book needing Notre Dame
Patrick Everson

We’ve got a big college football Saturday on tap, with three matchups among teams ranked in the top 15, highlighted by a battle between the hedges. Covers checks in on the action and odds movement for that clash and several more, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US.

NO. 7 NOTRE DAME AT NO. 3 GEORGIA – OPEN: -13.5; MOVE: -14; MOVE: -13.5; MOVE: -14; MOVE: -14.5

After reaching the College Football Playoff final two years ago, Georgia missed the CFP last year and is looking for an early-season boost in this 8 p.m. ET meeting. The Bulldogs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are taking a sizable step up in class, after thumping Arkansas State 55-0 as 32.5-point home favorites in Week 3.

Notre Dame reached the CFP semifinals last season, and getting a return trip could hinge largely on how Brian Kelly’s squad looks tonight. The Fighting Irish (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) dumped lightweight New Mexico 66-14 as 34.5-point home faves last week.

The Bulldogs got enough early support at William Hill books – in Nevada, New Jersey and beyond – to push the line right through the key number of 14.

“We’re gonna need Notre Dame. The public and sharps are on Georgia,” Bogdanovich said. “There’s actually public money for both teams. We’ll have a decision, but not a monster decision.”


NO. 10 MICHIGAN AT NO. 14 WISCONSIN – OPEN: -3; MOVE: -3.5

Michigan nearly took itself out of the CFP conversation in nonconference play two weeks ago. The Wolverines (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) were healthy 21.5-point home favorites against Army, but never led until overtime, escaping with a 24-21 victory. Michigan had a bye last week.

Wisconsin had a Week 3 bye, as well, after winning and cashing in its first two games by a combined score of 110-0. In Week 2, the Badgers boatraced Central Michigan 61-0 laying 34 points at home.

“It looks like we’ll need Michigan,” Bogdanovich said of this noon ET kickoff. “The masses are a little more on Wisconsin than on Michigan.”


NO. 9 AUBURN AT NO. 15 TEXAS A&M – OPEN: -4; MOVE: -3.5; MOVE: -4

Auburn is out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, including a Week 1 win over Oregon, followed by a couple of wins against lesser lights. In Week 3, the Tigers pounded Kent State 55-16 as hefty 36-point faves.

Texas A&M (2-1 SU) hasn’t let down bettors yet, going 3-0 ATS, including in a 24-10 Week 2 loss catching 16.5 points at No. 1 Clemson. The Aggies faced FCS foe Lamar in Week 3 and ran it up 62-3 giving 45 points at home.

“Very disappointing handle in that game,” Bogdanovich said, noting WillHill doesn’t have a rooting interest – yet. “At 12:30 Pacific, we’ll have a need.”


NO. 16 UCF AT PITTSBURGH – OPEN: +11.5; MOVE: +12.5; MOVE: +13; MOVE: +13.5 MOVE: +13; MOVE: +12.5; MOVE: +12 MOVE: +11.5; MOVE: +11

Central Florida is a regular-season monster both SU and ATS, having won 27 in a row on the field while going 19-7-1 ATS in that stretch. The Knights (3-0 SU and ATS) stopped Stanford 45-27 giving 9.5 points at home in Week 3.

Pittsburgh (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) had a surprisingly strong Week 3 showing, giving a Power Five unit and instate rival all it could handle. The Panthers were tied with Penn State at halftime 10-10 and only allowed one more score, but couldn’t add to their total in a 17-10 loss catching 17 points on the road.

This game probably wouldn’t be on the radar were it not for a whopping $166,250 moneyline bet on Central Florida -475, to win $35,000. Even with the line trending toward Pitt, WillHill definitely needs the ‘dog in this 3:30 p.m. ET contest.

“It seems like every other bet is on Central Florida, too. The public is all over the Knights, and the Knights have been very good to the public,” Bogdanovich said. “The sharps might be on Pitt, but this is gonna be a big one. We need Pitt.”


NO. 17 OREGON AT STANFORD – OPEN: +10; MOVE: +10.5

After losing to Auburn on a stunning last-seconds TD in Week 1, Oregon rebounded with a couple of wins over much lighter competition. Last week against Montana, the Ducks (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) rolled 35-3, but failed to cover the heavy 39.5-point spread.

Stanford QB K.J. Costello suffered a head injury in a Week 1 win over Northwestern and missed Week 2’s loss at Southern California. Costello returned in Week 3, but that wasn’t nearly enough at Central Florida, where the Cardinal (1-2 SU and ATS) lost 45-27 getting 9.5 points.

“We’re gonna need Stanford pretty good,” Bogdanovich said of a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. “When push comes to shove at the end of the night, everyone is gonna be on Oregon.”


Other notable matchups:

• No. 5 LSU at Vanderbilt, noon ET: The Tigers opened -24, dipped to -23, then returned to -24 Thursday. “That’ll be a big one, and we’ll need Vandy,” Bogdanovich said.

• No. 23 California at Mississippi, noon ET: This game opened pick and went to the host Rebels -2 within just a couple of hours Monday, then stayed there until ticking to -2.5 Friday afternoon. “We’re dead even to it. I think the sharps are on Ole Miss and the public is on Cal.”

• Nebraska at Illinois, 8 p.m. ET: The visiting Cornhuskers opened -11 and stretched to -13.5 twice, then dialed back to -13 Friday morning. “We’ll need Illinois for a pretty good amount,” Bogdanovich said.

• UCLA at No. 19 Washington State, 10:30 p.m. ET: It’s Pac-12 After Dark, one of this week’s get-even or get-even-deeper games. The Cougars opened healthy 19-point favorites against the winless Bruins, and the line quickly went to 20 before peeling back to 18.5 Tuesday. “There’s not much to the spread betting, but parlays, moneyline parlays and teasers are all Washington State,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll need UCLA big.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Three CFB Picks 9/21

100* Tennessee +14
100* Colorado +7.5
100* Syracuse -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Daily Double 1-2
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 72 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 2:45P
FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 21, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 21, 2019 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. TENTADOR is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TENTADOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed F igure at the distance/surface.
2	TENTADOR	1/1	1/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	EL KID CASAS	3	3/1	Front-runner	49	45	54.3	37.7	30.7
4	CHONGO'S DREAM	4	10/1	Front-runner	52	41	33.4	33.4	26.4
2	TENTADOR	2	1/1	Trailer	70	56	69.8	70.0	68.0
1	FUSAICHI ISLERO	1	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	58	58	69.2	36.3	32.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

Prairie Meadows - Race 4	Win, Place, Show (17% Takeout), Exacta, Quinella, .10 Superfecta (20% Takeout) .50 Trifecta (23% Takeout), .50 Pick 3 (19% Takeout)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 72 • Purse: $8,400 • Post: 2:18P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. IOWA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * ACES BODACIOUSBEAUTY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MIGHTY CUTE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TIMEFORMETOFLY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
7	ACES BODACIOUSBEAUTY	7/2	6/1
3	MIGHTY CUTE	8/1	6/1
4	TIMEFORMETOFLY	4/1	7/1
8	BEHOLD A SIGN	5/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BV ELIZABETH	1	3/1	Average/Trouble-prone	60	59	5.3	0.0	0.0
2	CHICKLET	2	10/1	Slow	0	0	9.1	0.0	0.0
3	MIGHTY CUTE	3	8/1	Average	63	66	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	TIMEFORMETOFLY	4	4/1	Average	71	58	4.8	0.0	0.0
5	DASH VALENTINE	5	15/1	Slow	67	35	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	TOTT TO TROT	6	6/1	Average	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	ACES BODACIOUSBEAUTY	7	7/2	Average	72	64	4.7	0.0	0.0
8	BEHOLD A SIGN	8	5/1	Slow	63	63	7.9	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

09/21/19, BEL, Race 6, 3.45 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
(UP TO $13,050 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Empire 6 (.20) Races (6-11), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	4	Candy Tycoon(b-)	4/5	Velazquez J R	Pletcher Todd A.	W
098.9041	2	Aasr	3-1	Castellano J	Brown Chad C.	JT
097.2940	6	Sixteen Tons	6-1	Carmouche K	Cox Brad H.
096.4228	1	Spycraft	9/2	Lezcano J	Albertrani Thomas
095.6187	1A	Positive Impact	9/2	Bravo J	McLaughlin Kiaran P.
094.8167	5	Bourbon Rising	10-1	Maragh R	Hennig Mark A.
094.1439	3	Stop Asking	15-1	Davis D	Gleaves Philip A.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.

4	22.00	1.17	46.03	29	63	[Dirt MdnMClm] Last Race Purse Higher Than Today
2	13.60	2.13	66.67	4	6	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Actual Post 1 And Distance 6f or 6 1/2f
1	8.70	1.12	51.43	18	35	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
1A	8.70	1.12	51.43	18	35	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
3	8.70	1.12	51.43	18	35	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 74

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 THREE KARYOTS 2/1
# 2 KAST INTENTION 9/5
# 3 MISS BOISTEROUS 3/1

My choice in this event is THREE KARYOTS. Has run admirably when racing a dirt sprint race. With a formidable jockey who has won at a decent 15 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top picks. Her 69 average has this filly with among the best Equibase Speed Figures in this contest. KAST INTENTION - Will probably be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the midpoint of the outing. Should definitely be given consideration in here if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last race. MISS BOISTEROUS - Look for a much better attempt with the drop. Earning some nice profits in dirt sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Arlington - Race #7 - Post: 4:40pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating:

#10 BLUE SKY KOWBOY (ML=5/1)
#5 MY BARILEY (ML=30/1)
#14 CAMMACK (ML=15/1)
#2 DON'TASK DON'TTELL (ML=15/1)


BLUE SKY KOWBOY - This thoroughbred may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. As they turn for home, he could put these away. MY BARILEY - I think this gelding is coming into top form. Equibase speed figures on the turf point to this animal as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance/surface. This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Felix, and this one could bound home the winner. CAMMACK - This rider and handler have a favorable ROI when they team up. Solid average class rating on this horse. Should have the class ability to run well on the turf. DON'TASK DON'TTELL - Taking this rider/conditioner combination is a good move. Look for this one to go all the way to the finish line at some pretty good odds in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the wire. Came home fast last time out at Arlington. That type of move bodes well for his chances right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CHRISTIAN C (ML=4/1), #12 GETTYSBURG (ML=6/1), #9 A P IS LOOSE (ML=6/1),

CHRISTIAN C - Should be difficult for this mount to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list. GETTYSBURG - The pace situation just isn't too promising for this speed merchant. Many other horses would have to scratch to improve his dreams at winning. This steed ran a substandard rating last out. He shouldn't improve and will probably suffer defeat today running that number. A P IS LOOSE - Recorded a disappointing speed rating last time out in an Allowance race on September 14th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 BLUE SKY KOWBOY is the play if we get odds of 5/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,10,14]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 108

GALLANT BOB S. - GRADE 2 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $200 WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION. A SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEE OF $3,000 MAY BE MADE AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO THE CLOSING OF ENTRIES. $500 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX, $1,000 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $300,000 GUARANTEED TO BE DIVIDED*: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 4% TO FIFTH.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 TROPHY CHASER 6/1
# 7 KING JACK 2/1
# 6 LANDESKOG 7/2

My selection in this contest is TROPHY CHASER. This horse has been consistently running well lately. Has been racing admirably and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Ortiz has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 21 percent rate. KING JACK - Has been right there at the finishing post most every time recently. Must be considered given the class of races run lately. LANDESKOG - Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of formidable win percentage - 20 percent - at this distance & surface. Could beat this group given the 109 speed figure garnered in his last outing.