Service Plays Wednesday 9/18/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

7 unit Miami +145

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game: (907) Philadelphia Phillies at (908) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Sep 18 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-111)

View Analysis

Eflin v. Teheran

Value value value....neither pitcher inspired much confidence...both teams (Phillies even moreso) want this game and with Torres behind the plate he damn near makes this a 5% play!

The umpire tonight is 20 Overs to 7 Unders on the season and 10-1 for us here in the NL. Rarely do we get the opportunity with 2 mediocre to outperforming starters PLUS Torres!

Boom this is close to my favorite play of the week....will not lie and say it may not be 5-5 heading to the 6th inning!

Game: (923) Texas Rangers at (924) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Sep 18 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-115)

View Analysis

Allard v. Cole

Gerrit Cole should have no issues...and has had no issues shutting down this Ranger lineup. He has allowed opponents a .167 BA the first time thru the order...and strikes out this lineup at a 36% rate! Allard coming from the left side also is in a spot where the Astros, who rarely struggle completely on offense, to struggle a bit...despite having the most PAs over the past week plus they have amassed merely 0.1 wRAA and a .321 wOBA.

Lance Barksdale behind the plate as we keep with our solid umpire matchups all day long is a very excellent Under umpire....with an entire 5 runs for the first 5 the value is WILD. He also favors the hometeam and if you can get full game 9 I would certainly consider that as strong a play as this first 5.

e

[T.I.438]

Hey CPAW do you have Paul Leiner’s goy play today in mlb?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago White Sox - P Dylan Covey (shoulder) has been scratched for tonight's start, P Ivan Nova will start tonight versus Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hey CPAW do you have Paul Leiner’s goy play today in mlb?

haven't seen it yet.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CleInsiderSports

MLB
Padres ML (+135)
White Sox ML (+230)

[TAWJR]

King Creole

4* OVER Saints / Rams DID NOT SEE THIS GAME WAS EVEN PLAYED BY HIM IN WRITE UP TODAY WHATS UP WITH THIS PLAY? LAST SUNDAY

[TAWJR]

Hey CPAW is H & H STILL AROUND tia

[T.I.438]

King Creole

4* OVER Saints / Rams DID NOT SEE THIS GAME WAS EVEN PLAYED BY HIM IN WRITE UP TODAY WHATS UP WITH THIS PLAY? LAST SUNDAY

It was on the site as a loss

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

4* OVER Saints / Rams DID NOT SEE THIS GAME WAS EVEN PLAYED BY HIM IN WRITE UP TODAY WHATS UP WITH THIS PLAY? LAST SUNDAY

Sunday S-H-O-O-T-O-U-T: King’s 4**** OVER of the WEEK in the NFL!
2019-09-15 16:25:00

Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars… Sunday / 9-15 / 4:25pm ET / 1:25pm PT / #283-284… NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS… 4**** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL (Optimum OU line: LESS than (<) 53 points)… Both of these high-flying NFL powerhouses came out smokin’ on offense in Week One, with the Rams scoring 30 points on the road in a tough ‘West to East’ game against a very good Carolina defense… and the Saints putting up 30 points after getting shut in the first quarter in their Monday come-from-behind win over the Texans. All of our database models and simulations point BOTH teams gotten got the magical point total of 27 points for the OVER to hit. And rule #1 for our service in terms off an ‘Over’ BEST BET is this: We must be able to trust that not one… but BOTH offenses will be able to put up the required amount of points. One can easily make a case that the Saints were already probably looking ahead to this very big REVENGE game when they stumbled of the gate in the first half of their Monday game. It was the Rams who took them down in the NFC Championship game last January in The Big Easy. So they have had this one ‘circled’ all summer long. We already know that last year’s regular season game between these two teams tallied a whopping 80 points last November. In that one, the OU line was a high 57 points… and the Over STILL cashed by +23 points (the score was 35-17 at the HALF!)…. So when we look at the highest-scoring HOME teams from last season, who would be your guess for #1? Not Pittsburgh (30.0 ppg)… Not New Orleans (31.6)… Not the mighty KC Chiefs (32.1)… and not New England either (33.8). The highest scoring home teams was the RAMS. They averaged 36.3 points on offense at home… and even ALLOWED a lot (27.4). So the average Ram home game had an amazing 63.7 combined points per game. On the flip side, sharp OU bettors already know that the Kansas City Chiefs were the highest-scoring ROAD team. But right behind them at #2 was the SAINTS (28.9 ppg on the road last season). If we wanted to, we could probably ‘cut and paste’ many individual team OU trends from other websites to strengthen our call. But we won’t. The two signature OVER trends from each team that I dug out of the database specifically look at the first month of the season. The SAINTS have gone 11-1 O/U as UNDERDOGS in Games 1 thru 4. And the RAMS have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U in there last four years in Games 1 thru 4 versus any NON-West Division opponent… Next up, we start our database querying. The first query looks at games like this in which both teams scored 30 or more on offense in their last game. And this is a good sign for OVER bettors: 16-3-1 O/U last three years: All NFL Week 9 or less games in which BOTH teams scored 30+ points in their last game (SAINTS @ RAMS). In NON-division play, our results shoot all the way up to 12-1-1 O/U 92% Overs)… Both of these teams came our as ‘Victors’ in their very first game of the season. 6-0 O/U last 2 years: All NFL games in which BOOTH teams are undefeated in the year (SAINTS @ RAMS) in GAME TWO or greater… when the OU line is 44 or more points… So both teams won in Week One… and both were involved in some high-scoring antics on offense and defense. LA won 30 to 27, and NORL won 30 to 28. So that sets up our next database query: 10–1 O/U since 2013: All NFL Games in which BOTH teams have a winning percentage of > .250… and BOTH teams are off a game in which they scored AND allowed 27 or more points (SAINTS and RAMS). In the last two seasons, these game have average an impressive 63.3 points per game… OVER bettors love it when these two different divisions hook-up against each other. The OVER has hit at a very high percentage. In fact, NFC WEST DIVISION teams (RAMS) have gone 22-6-1 O/U in the last five years in GAME 2 or greater versus any NFC SOUTH DIVISION opponent (SAINTS). When the NFL WEST team is off a win (like the RAMS), the results improve to 8-1 O/U… We acknowledge that it’s short week for the Saints. But the database tells us that: Non-Division underdogs of 2 > points off a MONDAY home game (SAINTS) have gone 32-9-1 O/U since 2011. This includes a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last 4 years in GAME 5 our less when the OU line is > 43 points… The West Coast Rams opened the season with a tough cross-country trek all the way to Charlotte. We projected them to struggle on offense early in the game (we were on the UNDER) and they did (0 points in 1st quarter / only 13 at the half). But that game vs Carolina eventually DID go Over (much to our dismay I might add). But that result sets up this: NFL West Time Zone HOME favorites of 13 < points off a ‘West to East’ OVER (RAMS) have gone 9-1 O/U in the last three years…. No query would be complete without look at this particular Week of the Season (Game Two). In this case, a look at the relatively high OVER / UNDER line (52 to 52.5) is certainly warranted. And the results looks good for us OVER bettors… NFL Week Two NON-DIVISION games with a HIGH OU line of 51 or more points (SAINTS @ RAMS) have gone a perfect 90% OVER the Total (9-1 O/U) in the history of our database!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Demarco 20 run line play on Nationals

Check your PM Cali, Thx.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hey CPAW is H & H STILL AROUND tia

Guy posted them once in a while, got called out on something and said he would stop posting for now.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3 unit Atlanta over 10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bezobets

3* Orioles ML -113
2* Tampa Rays ML +115

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (917) Toronto Blue Jays at (918) Baltimore Orioles
  Date/Time: Sep 18 2019 7:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles -102
  
  View Analysis
  
  Buchholz v. Bundy
  Hmmm....even line here with Clay on the road....shenanigans
  
• Game: (927) San Francisco Giants at (928) Boston Red Sox
  Date/Time: Sep 18 2019 7:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H San Francisco Giants 0.5 (-105)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Samardzija v. Chacin
  Giants are less than normal vig for a win=tie and they get to face Chacin with a DH....against the Sox who've given up and are to the point of stsrting Chacin?
  
  thank God for September MLB bookmaking!