Tweet
Robert ferringo
nfl
1-jacksonv+1.5
nfl
1-jacksonv+1.5
-
Worlds Worst Picker Footballs
His picks:
Jacksonville
Tulane
We Take:
Tennessee
HoustonComment
-
DR. CHUCK
Game:(304) TULANE Team Total Over
Date/Time: Sep 19 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: TULANE Team Total Over 30.5 (-120)
View Analysis
Houston is certainly the more public team in tonight's matchup, which isn't something all that common about a road team with a worse record who is also a dog. The line did open around -3 and tickets have consistently been at the 60% toward the Cougars all week...and at some books the line has expanded all the way to the dead number of -5 for the home Tulane squad. Tulane on offense has been excellent outside the Auburn matchup...where actually the defense was the star!
On to the play here...I think the side of backing Tulane is the correct side...as I think Vegas anticipated and guessed correctly, the -5 is likely where Vegas oddsmakers had this game and had hoped the liability would not rear its head too much. Tulane has a solid 5.8 yards per play on offense which is helpful to back on offense tonight for a team rolling...but on the defensive end has a top 20 nationally defensive yards per play of 4.8! On the Houston end, further reason a public backing was expected, they have the coach with the name, Holgorson, the pedigree of recent successes with coaches moved on (Briles, Sumlin, Herman, Applewhite), and much more national recognition. Willie Fritz has really changed Tulane for the better and we have backed them here already this season and this was widely predicted to be the year they may break through and contend for an AAC title.
Finally, on the offense/defense front...the Houston Cougars of public fame have the worst defensive yards per play allowed in the entire country...at a solid 9.0 yards per play allowed...Tulane is likely to run all over and scoring 31 points through 60 minutes of football feels like the bargain play of the night for this single game slate!
Comment
-
Champagne - Brewers (W) Dime Man - Cubs underComment
Comment