Service Plays Saturday 9/21/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bezobets 12-0-1 last weekend football..

3* Wash -6 -115
3* Texas A&M -3 -120
3* Georgia -14 -118
2* Michigan +3.5 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 4 college football picks, bets, nuggets

College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 4 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 4 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of 'dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 4.

---

The plays

The Bear (4-2 last week, 5-9-1 overall)

Stanford Steve (6-0-1 last week, 11-5-1 overall)


Wyoming Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3.5, 45)
The Bear: At 1-2, Tulsa is a small favorite over 3-0 Wyoming, so that immediately grabbed my attention. The Cowboys have a negative passing game in terms of expected points, are 82nd nationally in offensive efficiency and now face a defense that's 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge for Tulsa over Wyoming, which is 70th on defense. I'm thinking Wyoming's opening-week victory over Missouri is a bit of a fluke, based on close calls the past two weeks against Idaho and Texas State. After putting up 21 on Oklahoma State last week, look for Tulsa to get a home win here and feel good entering its idle week.
Pick: Tulsa -3.5
Stanford Steve: I love everything about the Wyoming football program ... but I think Wyoming is the most overrated undefeated team in the country.
Pick: Tulsa. Tulsa 27, Wyoming 20.

Auburn Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5, 47.5)
The Bear: Texas A&M really hung in there at Clemson a couple of weeks ago -- especially on the defensive side of the ball -- and Jimbo Fisher has gotten A&M to play well in big games at Kyle Field, something the Aggies didn't do under Kevin Sumlin (3-9 vs. ranked teams at home). I wonder about Auburn quarterback Bo Nix against that A&M defense on the road here. And looking at A&M's schedule -- yes, Auburn has a difficult slate, too -- the Aggies really need a win here.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5
Stanford Steve: I like what I've seen from both of these teams to start the season, even though the Aggies have a loss. Plenty of eyes will be on Auburn's Nix in his first true road start, as he will take on the atmosphere of Kyle Field and the 12th Man. I think back to last season when these two teams met and Auburn rallied for an unthinkable win. That day at Auburn, the Aggies held the Tigers to 19 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Also in that game, A&M quarterback Kellen Mond struggled, completing 50% of his passes for 220 yards. Mond was a different player in road and home games last season, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions on the road and 19 TDs and four INTs at home.
Pick: Texas A&M -3.5. Texas A&M 30, Auburn 21.

Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-3, 63.5)
Stanford Steve: This is the first time in the Bobcats' 39 games at the FBS level that they are favored. They win, but they don't cover.
Pick: Georgia State +3. Texas State 29, Georgia State 28.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Georgia Bulldogs (-14.5, 57.5)
Stanford Steve: If you want to bet the game where College GameDay is going ... the Irish cover.
Pick: Notre Dame +14.5. Georgia 34, Notre Dame 24.

---

Stay-away games

The Bear


Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5, 44)
The Badgers' defense has been great against nobody, while the Wolverines' offense has sputtered. Michigan has more talent than Wisconsin, but it's hard to back the Wolverines until we see them put a complete game together. While it wouldn't surprise me to see them play well Saturday, what if the Badgers are for real? Too many questions for me to get involved.

Utah Utes (-4, 52) at USC Trojans
We know the numbers on Clay Helton as a 'dog (they aren't good), but I thought USC played OK last week at BYU. The world will be on Utah here. I'll sit and watch, and if things start going south, in-game betting will be the way to go.
Stanford Steve


UCF Knights (-12.5, 61) at Pittsburgh Panthers
No clue how Pitt gets up off the deck after last week.

California Golden Bears at Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 41)
The stat about ranked teams that are underdogs on the road vs. unranked teams scares me (see the Bear Bytes below), because Cal feels like the right side.

---

The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Boston College blew it up Friday night, so hopefully you reloaded Saturday, as the remaining 10 won. Here's this week's edition. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $43.16.
Iowa State -1150
Indiana -3700
Miami -6000
Virginia -6000
LSU -2200
Baylor -3500
Georgia -650

---

The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML or in a parlay or round-robin

Last week four of the five won, and if you played a $10 round-robin, you would have made roughly $1,100. Hopefully a couple of these can get home this week.
Pitt +375
Western Michigan +185 (FPI has WMU favored in the game)
Kentucky +200
Appalachian State +135
Louisville +200
SMU +280
BYU +200

---

Stanford Steve's big-game money-line parlay

A $100 bet wins $497.
Utah -180
Texas A&M -160
Wisconsin -160
Texas -220

---

Stanford Steve's three-team, 10-point teaser for Friday

Utah +6
Florida International +18
Air Force +18.5

---

Stanford Steve's favorite team total over

Alabama over 49

---

Stanford Steve's underdog that might be worth taking on the ML

Northwestern +310

---

Bear Bytes

Not much fight

Under Clay Helton, USC is 1-12 outright and 2-11 against the spread as an underdog. Eleven of the 12 losses have come by double digits, and eight of the 12 losses came by at least 17 points. The average margin of defeat in USC's past 12 losses as an underdog: 18.8 points per game. USC as an underdog under Helton:
2018 vs. Notre Dame (+12), lost by 7
2018 at Utah (+7), lost by 13
2018 at Texas (+3.5), lost by 23
2018 at Stanford (+5), lost by 14
2017 vs. Ohio State (+10), lost by 17 (Cotton Bowl)
2017 at Notre Dame (+3.5), lost by 35
2016 at Washington (+8), won by 13
2016 at Utah (+3), lost by 4
2016 at Stanford (+7), lost by 17
2016 vs. Alabama (+12), lost by 46 (Arlington, Texas)
2015 vs. Stanford (+4.5), lost by 19
2015 at Oregon (+4), lost by 20
2015 at Notre Dame (+6), lost by 10
Michigan struggles as an underdog

Michigan has failed to win a game under Jim Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Four of the six losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first season at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-6) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-14).
Mike Gundy excels in this role

In its past nine games as an underdog, Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS, with seven outright wins. One of Gundy's squad's losses came by one point against Oklahoma last season as a 21.5-point 'dog.
Odds are Notre Dame at Georgia will not be close

We all love big regular-season games between top-10 teams. But lately, those games haven't necessarily lived up to the hype or produced many upsets. In the past 13 pre-bowl meetings between top-10 teams, favorites are 10-3 ATS. The only underdog to win during that stretch was Ohio State (+4) last season at home vs. Michigan.
Notre Dame is 4-13 ATS in its past 17 games against top-five teams. The Irish are 1-18 SU in their past 19 against top-five teams, with a scoring margin of minus-20.6 PPG. Fourteen of the 18 losses have come by at least 14 points and 10 by 20-plus points. Under Brian Kelly, Notre Dame is 0-4 in this spot, with three of four losses by at least 14 points.
Worst win percentage vs. top-five teams since 2000 (minimum 10 games):
Wake Forest 0-16
Vanderbilt 0-15
Indiana 0-13
Boston College 1-17
Notre Dame 1-17*
*0-4 under Kelly (three losses by 14-plus points)
Since 1978, there have been 28 top-10 matchups where the spread has been at least 14 points. The favorite has won 24 of them and gone 16-12 ATS (18-2 SU, 12-8 ATS in the 20 regular-season games). The four 'dogs to win outright, two of which came in a conference title game:
2015, No. 9 Michigan State at No. 2 Ohio State (-14), W, 17-14
2001, No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Florida (-17.5), W, 34-32*
1998, No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5), W, 36-33*
1994, No. 6 Auburn at No. 1 Florida (-17), W, 36-33
*Conference championship game
Northwestern a live 'dog?

Few teams perform better in the underdog role than Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern Wildcats. The Cats are 13-4-1 ATS with 10 outright wins in their past 18 games as a 'dog, including a 7-1-1 mark with six outright wins as a 'dog in 2018, one of which was a 29-19 victory at Michigan State as an 11-point underdog. In the Spartans' past five games against Power 5 opponents, the offense has three touchdowns and nine turnovers in 67 drives. During that span, MSU has one 80-yard drive, has been held to single digits in four of five games and failed to score a touchdown in three of the five games.
Unusually high spread for Florida-Tennessee

This is the largest spread (Gators -14) in the Florida-Tennessee series since 2013. Florida won 31-17 that season as a 16-point favorite in Gainesville. The Gators have failed to cover four of the past five games in which they were favored.
Which way will Ole Miss vs. Cal go?

As an underdog at Cal, Justin Wilcox is 12-6 ATS with seven outright wins. Since 2015, there have been 25 instances in the pre-bowl season where a team ranked 20th or lower entered a game against an unranked team as an underdog. Ranked teams are just 4-21 SU during that span. Last season, there were six instances, with Northwestern's victory at Minnesota marking the only time the ranked team did not lose. Two weeks ago, unranked Maryland and USC both knocked off ranked underdogs in this spot. Add it all up, and since the start of last season, unranked favorites against teams ranked 20-25 are 8-1 SU and ATS. If you think that trend will continue, Ole Miss is your play this weekend.
Bad home 'dog vs. bad road favorite

Last week's win over USC was the only time in seven tries as a home underdog under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered the spread (1-5-1 ATS). However, Washington is 2-4 (1-5 ATS) in its past six games as a road favorite. Included in that are two losses as a double-digit favorite.
Pitt typically hangs around in these games

In its past five games as a regular-season double-digit underdog, Pitt, which hosts UCF on Saturday, is 4-1 ATS with one outright win and three losses by seven points or fewer. The only game Pitt didn't cover during that span was a 31-point loss at UCF last season as a 13.5-point underdog.
Rare favorites

This is the first time in 39 games Texas State is favored over an FBS opponent (-3 vs. Georgia State). The last time Texas State was favored over an FBS opponent was Nov. 19, 2015, vs. Louisiana Monroe. Dennis Franchione's team beat Todd Berry's team 16-3 as a 6.5-point favorite.
Kansas isn't a big 'dog!

Saturday marks the first time since 2014 that Kansas is an underdog of less than a touchdown in a Big 12 game (West Virginia -4.5). The last time Kansas was a 'dog of less than a TD was Nov. 8, 2014, when the Jayhawks beat Iowa State 34-14 as a 3.5-point 'dog. That was 40 games ago.
North Carolina on upset alert?

Appalachian State has covered each of its past two games against Power 5 teams. Last season, the Mountaineers lost 45-38 at Penn State as a 24-point underdog in a game they probably should have won. And in 2017, App State lost 20-19 to Wake Forest as a 5.5-point 'dog. The Mountaineers are 3-point underdogs at North Carolina.
Fade Florida State?

Florida State is 2-6 ATS with three outright losses in its eight games as a favorite under Willie Taggart.
Trust the Ducks or Cardinal?

Oregon (-10) has been a brutal road team in Pac-12 play lately -- 3-13 both straight up and against the spread since 2016. But can you take Stanford with any confidence?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

+EV: CFB 4u: 367 Auburn Tigers +4 -113 (Saturday, September 21st)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

3 Unit Northwestern +9

7 Unit Washington -6.5

2 Unit Tex a &m -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

5 Unit - Western Michigan +5 over Syracuse

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI

3 Air force

4 Colorado +8.5

3 Texas -5.5

7 OREGON OVER 57.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex B Smith Sports

College Football

9/21 1* Colorado +7.5
9/21 1* North Carolina -3 -105
9/21 1* Texas A&M -3.5
9/21 1* Stanford/Oregon Under 58.5
9/21 1* Nevada-Reno -14.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

8-colorado+8.5
5-wisconsin-3.5
3-smu+9.5
3-tenn+14
3-nebraska-13
2-ulm.warhawks+18.5
2-ucla+18.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug upstone

6-uab-11
5-a.force+7.5
4-pitt+12
4-old.dom+28.5
4-wisconsin-3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert ferringo

college
3-michigan state-9
3-tulsa-3.5
3-arkansas-20.5
2-old.dom+29
2-washington-6.5
2-mississippi-2.5
2-missouri-9
2-ucla+18.5
1-utah-3.5
1-nebraska-13
1-michigan+3.5
1-texas-5.5
1-smu+9.5
1-s.alabama+11
1-ut-san antonio+19
1-teaser-temple-7 and sd.state+11
1-teaser-oregon-3 and asu-1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen eastman

college
6-uab-10.5
4-under-48.5-kentucky
3-wyoming+3.5
3-nebraska-13.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nfac
SATURDAY 9-21-19 =
UFC : YAIR RODRIGUEZ +100...($600) Pinnacle at +103
UFC : KYLE NELSON -115...($600) via Pinnacle
351) OVER 48.5 COL-ARIZ ST...($800) - BIG MOVE via Bookmaker
398) OVER 57.5 UCLA-WASH ST...($800) - BIG MOVE via Bookmaker
320) PITTSBURGH +11.5...($750) via Pinnacle
329) OLD DOMINION +29...($750) via Cantor

[WeWantMoehr]

Alan Harris

3 Unit Play. Take #315 Charlotte +42 over Clemson (7:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, ACC Network)
3 Unit Play. Take #317 Connecticut +27.5 over Indiana (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, Big 10 Network)
6 Unit Play. Take #323 Nebraska -13 over Illinois (8:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, Big 10 Network)
3 Unit Play. Take #325 Temple -14 over Buffalo (:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, ESPN U)
3 Unit Play. Take #327/328 Central Michigan vs Miami (FL) Over 48 (4:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, ACC Network)
5 Unit Play. Take #329 Old Dominion +29 over Virginia (7:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, ESPN 2)
4 Unit Play. Take #343/344 Michigan vs Wisconsin Over 44.5 (12:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, FOX)
4 Unit Play. Take #350 BYU +6.5 over Washington (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, ESPN 2)
3 Unit Play. Take #359 Southern Mississippi +39 over Alabama (9:00 AM, Saturday, September 21, ESPN 2)
3 Unit Play. Take #370 Tulsa -3.5 over Wyoming (3:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, CBS Sports Network)
4 Unit Play. Take #372 Missouri -9 over South Carolina (4:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, SEC Network)
3 Unit Play. Take #373/374 West Virginia vs Kansas Over 49 (4:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, ESPN +)
3 Unit Play. Take #391 Notre Dame +14.5 over Georgia (8:00 PM, Saturday, September 21, CBS)
5 Unit Play. Take #398 Washington St -18.5 over UCLA (10:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, ESPN)
3 Unit Play. Take #399/400 Utah St vs San Diego St over 54 (10:30 PM, Saturday, September 21, CBS Sports Network)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV Wolf

267 Aub 1h under 23.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

Massachusetts +17