Wednesday 9-25-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:31 AM

Ray Monohan

Sep 25 '19, 6:40 PM in 10h
MLB | Brewers vs Reds
Play on: Brewers -128 at YouWager

Brewers ML
On the mounds Wednesday afternoon we see Jordan Lyles RHP 11-8, 4.17 ERA vs. Tyler Mahle RHP 2-11, 4.93 ERA. If there is a hotter team in MLB than Milwaukee show them to me! The Brew Crew can clinch a playoff spot on Wednesday afternoon. They've won 16/18 and are within a game of the Nats for the top NL wild card.
Lyles is 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 starts for Milwaukee. He'll oppose Tyler Mahle who is winless in his last 12 starts, and in his last 2 starts alone he has given up 14 hits over 7 2/3 innings. The only reason I think the Public is hammering the Reds in this one is because Mahle in his last start did pretty well vs. the Cubs allowing just one run over 6 innings.
With not much to play for on the Cincinnati side one has to wonder how they match Milwaukee's intensity today. We're going to take a small shot on the Brewers on the moneyline today. I think the Brewers will jump on Mahle early and often in this one and he'll be chased from the game quickly.
Some trends to consider. Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 road games, and are 13-3 in their last 16 games following a win. Plus they're 7-0 in Lyles' last 7 starts. Reds are 0-4 in Mahles last 4 home starts. Lastly head to head the Brewers are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Cincinnati.
The Brewers ERA this month is 2.77. That leads MLB. Back the Brewers.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Wednesday 5* Free MLB ML Play

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:32 AM

Larry Ness

Sep 25 '19, 6:40 PM in 10h
MLB | Brewers vs Reds
Play on: Brewers -136 at pinnacle

My free play is on the Mil Brewers at 6:40 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Miami Marlins 4-3 back on Sep 10, leaving them one game back of the Cubs in the race of for the NL's second wild card spot. However, the biggest news coming out of that game was that reigning National League MVP Christian Yelich fouled a ball off himself and the result was a broken right kneecap. In that moment, the Brewers' hopes of returning to the postseason appeared dim. However, last night's 4-2 win at Cincy was Milwaukee's 11th win in 13 games since Yelich was lost for the season. Milwaukee owns MLB's best record in Sep (18-4) and its magic number for clinching a wild card berth is down to one. The Brewers stay in Cincinnati for the second of their three-game series with the Reds, tonight. The 73-84 Reds have five games left in their season but have already clinched a SIXTH straight losing season. Tonight's starting pitchers are Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.17 ERA) and Tyler Mahle (2-11, 4.93 ERA). Lyles 2019 'story' is truly remarkable. Lyles went more than two months without a victory and was 0-6 in an eight-start span (9.58 ERA in that span!) before he was traded from Pittsburgh to Milwaukee. What Milwaukee saw in him was difficult to understand. However, his turnaround has been nothing short of INCREDIBLE. Lyles made 17 starts for Pittsburgh, going 5-7 (team was 8-9 in his starts) with a 5.36 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and .271 BAA. He'll take the mound tonight, having gone 6-1 with a 2.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .205 BAA in 10 starts with the Brewers (Milwaukee is 9-1 in his 10 starts, +913 vs the moneyline).

Tyler Mahle took the mound Sep 12 at Seattle winless in 12 road starts in 2019 (he was 0-8 and the Reds, 0-12). He lasted just 3.1 innings in that one, allowing eight hits and four ERs but the Reds won, 11-5. His next start (9/18) was also on the road and he was terrific, allowing one hit at Wrigley against the Cubs. He did not get a decision but the Reds won 3-2. He takes the mound tonight, winless in his last 12 starts and on the entire season, the Reds are 6-17 (-$989) over his 23 starts. Expect the Brewers to clinch a wild card berth here with a win and then they can set their sights on catching the Nats (for the No. 1 wild card spot) and maybe even the Cards in the NL Central (would need help form the D'backs and the horribly slumping Cubs for that, though). Good luck...Larry

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:32 AM

Hunter Price

Sep 25 '19, 6:40 PM in 10h
MLB | Brewers vs Reds
Play on: Reds +135 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Reds +135

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:32 AM

Jimmy Boyd

Sep 25 '19, 7:05 PM in 10h
MLB | Phillies vs Nationals
Play on: Phillies +150 at YouWager

1* Free Pick on Phillies +150

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:32 AM

Stephen Nover

Sep 25 '19, 7:05 PM in 10h
MLB | Phillies vs Nationals
Play on: Phillies +152 at 5Dimes

Clinching a wild card spot with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies on Tuesday was extra sweet for the Nationals because of the Bryce Harper factor. The Nationals certainly are entitled to celebrate after opening the season 19-31 in their first 50 games. So I doubt the Nationals will have their full focus for today's game. This sets up a good underdog spot for the Phillies especially at this plus price. While Washington doesn't have major incentive for the rest of the regular season, the situation is different in Philadelphia. Gabe Kapler is managing to keep his job. The prideful Harper and his teammates probably didn't appreciate the Nationals going crazy after beating them Tuesday. They should be up for this game. The pitching matchup is Drew Smyly versus Anibal Sanchez. Smyly is pitching for his big league career. He's slowed down since originally looking good when he joined the Phillies. Still, the Phillies are 5-1 when Smyly has started on the road for them. The Phillies have enjoyed good success against Washington's slated starter, Anibal Sanchez, who is 0-2 with a 4.33 ERA in four starts against Philadelphia this year. The Nationals have a 5.85 bullpen ERA, the worst in the majors. Washington also carries a high bullpen fatigue rating as Nationals' relievers worked eight innings during Tuesday's doubleheader.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:33 AM

Bobby Conn

Sep 25 '19, 7:07 PM in 10h
MLB | Orioles vs Blue Jays
Play on: Orioles +156 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Play on Orioles +156

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:33 AM

Steve Janus

Sep 25 '19, 7:07 PM in 10h
MLB | Orioles vs Blue Jays
Play on: Orioles +161 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Orioles +161

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:44 AM

Chase Diamond

Chase’s 8* MLB Power Move

Cleveland vs. Chi White Sox, 09/25/2019 20:10 EDT

Point Spread: -1½/-181 Cleveland

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

This game features the 93-64 Indians and the 68-88 White Sox. This game here is a no brainer and that is the reason for a mega juice game normally I stay clear of games like this but this game is an excellent add on to a parlay later in the week as I see the Indians dominating this game Ross Detwiler is bad Indians dominate the Sox. 8* Winner Indians -1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:46 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 9	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $42,000 • Post: 9:46P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) PREFERENCE TO HORSES WITH THE MOST STARTS AT PENN NATIONAL IN 2019.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * OUR GRAYCIOUS GIRL: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STORMBEAM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ASTROKEG: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's ave rage winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MALIBU SURPRISE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average E quibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	OUR GRAYCIOUS GIRL	5/2	4/1
5	STORMBEAM	9/2	9/2
4	ASTROKEG	6/1	7/1
8	MALIBU SURPRISE	3/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	ASTROKEG	4	6/1	Front-runner	81	81	96.6	72.8	66.3
2	OUR GRAYCIOUS GIRL	2	5/2	Front-runner	78	90	86.2	82.8	79.3
8	MALIBU SURPRISE	8	3/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	79	98.4	70.4	63.4
5	STORMBEAM	5	9/2	Trailer	94	90	64.6	79.4	75.9
3	BRANDYWINES SECRET	3	20/1	Trailer	81	65	53.4	64.8	53.8
6	CRYSTAL CLEAR	6	5/1	Trailer	70	67	11.2	63.0	50.5
1	EMPRESS LIVIA	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	65	84.8	54.8	40.8
7	SHANGHAI TOOTSIE	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	66	52.2	54.6	41.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:47 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

Mountaineer Park - Race 4	First Half $2 Mid Daily Double (Races 4 -5) $.50 Trifecta $1 Exacta Box ($.20) Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $9,100 • Post: 8:06P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. RUN TROUBLE RUN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * RUN TROUBLE RUN: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HEBGONE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. OASHAAR: Horse has the highest TrackMast er Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	RUN TROUBLE RUN	5/1	7/2
3	HEBGONE	2/1	9/2
4	OASHAAR	9/5	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	RUN TROUBLE RUN	6	5/1	Front-runner	85	79	83.0	73.0	64.5
1	MACHINIST	1	6/1	Stalker	77	76	76.2	65.4	56.9
3	HEBGONE	3	2/1	Stalker	86	84	62.6	79.8	73.8
7	PEQUENO GRANDE	7	15/1	Trailer	67	67	11.6	59.0	45.5
4	OASHAAR	4	9/5	Alternator/Trailer	90	88	34.0	77.6	74.1
2	LUCACITO	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	69	64.6	62.8	53.3
5	SALSA LANE	5	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	78	43.6	71.8	65.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:47 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 84

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 MIRACLE MASTER 4/5
# 2 BLUE WINGS 9/2
# 4 BLUE CHOICE 4/1

MIRACLE MASTER is the most competitive wager in this race. This gelding with McMahon in the saddle makes him a key contender. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the bunch going into the halfway point of the race. Should best this group here, showing decent figures of late. BLUE WINGS - Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figs (77 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 73 - of his last contest. BLUE CHOICE - Will probably go to the lead and may never look back. Had one of the most competitive Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:47 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 52

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BET IT ALL TO WIN 9/5
# 1 EAGLE MARSH 7/5
# 4 HONORABLE UNION 6/1

BET IT ALL TO WIN looks strong to best this field. A solid 71 avg Equibase class rating may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. EAGLE MARSH - With Peltroche getting the mount, watch out for this equine. HONORABLE UNION - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the halfway point of the outing. Could beat this field given the 52 Equibase speed fig posted in his last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 2:10pm - Allowance - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#5 I'M FEELING LUCKY (ML=3/1)

I'M FEELING LUCKY - Morales tried her against the males last time out. This should be a good spot. Morales drops her down to this class. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to think this horse will be tough to beat at this level. This filly has been working out well, and the recent bullet work says she's primed for a top effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 NONHELMA (ML=5/2), #3 HALEYS COURT (ML=7/2), #1 ZOE MY LOVE (ML=9/2),

NONHELMA - Not much value on this entrant at the likely odds of 5/2. HALEYS COURT - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed rating than last time around the track to compete in this dirt sprint. ZOE MY LOVE - This filly raced surprisingly well on Sep 3rd ending up second, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 I'M FEELING LUCKY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-25-2019, 07:48 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:15pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#5 JOEYVILLE (ML=9/5)

JOEYVILLE - Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a strong effort last time around the track within the last month. I'll forgive that last effort on Sep 4th when he was beaten as the favorite. That race was pretty good for a Maiden Special race and this gelding's speed rating was solid. This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a campaigner that finished in the place spot in a maiden race last time out but finished well ahead of the third horse. Sophisticated horseplayers will tell you that this horse has strong pace. Traditional handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today's the day.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 GALICENO (ML=3/1), #6 GENEVIEVE'S Z VA (ML=4/1), #2 BISHI (ML=6/1),

GALICENO - Notched a mediocre speed rating last time out in a $6,250 Maiden Claiming race on September 2nd. Doubtful to see an improved performance off of that number. GENEVIEVE'S Z VA - Don't think this steed is worth 4/1 in this race. BISHI - This thoroughbred likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Don't play in the top spot.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - JOEYVILLE - This horse is a contender in today's event. His last two speed numbers 68 and 65 are better than today's class rating 63.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 JOEYVILLE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 4
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

Wednesday 9-25-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Wednesday 9-25-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment