Friday 10-4-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6

Friday, October 4

Central Florida @ Cincinnati

Game 307-308
October 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Florida
98.264
Cincinnati
97.068
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 4
60
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+4); Under

New Mexico @ San Jose St

Game 309-310
October 4, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico
67.151
San Jose St
70.268
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose St
by 3
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose St
by 7
64
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico
(+7); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 6
Bruce Marshall

Friday, Oct. 4

Matchup Skinny
Edge

UCF at CINCINNATI...UCF 8-2 as visiting chalk since 2016. Fickell 2-3 as dog since LY. UCF has won and covered last three (well, counting the 2017 game, when UCF was blowing out Bearcats but game ended prematurely because of weather).
UCF, based on team and series trends.


NEW MEXICO at SAN JOSE STATE... SJS on 10-6 spread uptick. Spartans 13-5-1 as chalk since 2014. Lobos no covers last seven since late 2018, 8-20-1 last 29 on board.
San Jose State, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

307UCF -308 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 8.5 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

309NEW MEXICO -310 SAN JOSE ST
SAN JOSE ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UCF at Cincinnati
Matt Blunt

No. 18 Central Florida at Cincinnati
Venue/Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Time/TV: Friday, Oct. 4 (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Line: UCF -4 ½, Total 60

Recent Meetings:
2018: Central Florida (-6.5) 38 vs. Cincinnati 13, Under 60 ½
2017: Central Florida (-15) 51 at Cincinnati 23, Over 52 ½
2016: Central Florida (-10.5) 24 vs. Cincinnati 3, Under 51 ½
2015: Cincinnati 52 (-26) 52 vs. Central Florida 7, Under 61

The Conference of Champions is taking this Friday night off, as it's the AAC's turn to shine under the bright Friday night lights. The conference is hoping to showcase it's “best” team as the 18th ranked UCF Knights travel north to Cincinnati to try and knock off a 3-1 Bearcats program.

Outside of getting waxed by Ohio State, the Bearcats have looked good, winning by double-digits in all three of their wins, and really who has gone up against the Buckeyes so far in 2019 and not gotten waxed. There is a view that a loss to Pitt, as essentially double-digit road chalk, looks much worse on UCF's resume, but with how the Knights bounced back with a no-nonsense win over Connecticut last weekend, UCF knows they can't afford any more slip-ups.

Can the Bearcats play well enough to help one of those slip-ups happen, or will UCF just be on their way to potentially another long winning streak?

UCF cruised to the 56-21 win over Connecticut last weekend, as a 56-0 lead was established before the Knights called it a day and did so early enough to let Connecticut through the back door for an ATS win. But really -42 was a lofty number to cover after the program's first loss in 27 regular season games, and had UCF decided to play the full 60 minutes, the easy ATS win was there.

A thought like that has to be concerning to the rest of the AAC as league play really begins in earnest, because this UCF team just keeps pushing forward, even after dealing with their first setback in years. What that tells me is that it's going to be tough to ever catch UCF in a flat spot, or a look-ahead spot, at least pregame, the rest of the way. They can flush good and bad efforts just as quickly as one another, and while they probably got caught looking ahead to this primetime showcase in the 4th quarter last week as they watched Connecticut stroll through the back door, that happens here and it won't matter given the spread they've got to cover this week.

Hard to take anything away from Cincinnati's effort this year, although I guess you would have preferred to see a bit more fight and potential production against Ohio State. And while they are currently the only Ohio State opponent that didn't score against the Buckeyes this season, their 42-point deficit in the loss isn't the worst margin of defeat for an Ohio State opponent. Even further had they mustered a safety or FG in that game, they'd have the 2nd smallest margin of defeat by an Ohio State foe at just 39 points. That's how impressive Ohio State has been.

Not as much shame in that loss as it may appear for Cincinnati, and UCF, while good, is still not Ohio State. But the Bearcats defense got absolutely gashed on the ground that day (270 yards, 5.9 average), and UCF's attack is on the ground first. The Knights may not be Ohio State, but they recruit a similar caliber of athlete, and that does not bode well for Cincy's defense either. Sure, holding down Marshall, Miami (Ohio) and UCLA – although UCLA's offense deserves more credit after that Washington State game – to 14 or fewer points is one thing, doing that to the Knights is going to be near impossible. As a program, UCF hasn't scored fewer than 30 points in a single game since their 2016 Bowl loss to Arkansas State (31-13). That's 31 straight games of putting up 30 or more for UCF. Does this Bearcats offense have enough pop to keep up?

I'm not sure that they do, as even Pittsburgh needed a punt return TD, to win the ball control battle by 11+ minutes, and the turnover battle (2-1) to squeak out a 1-point win in the final minute. That's a lot of things going right for one team at home, and with how UCF came out of the gates last week, you know they've learned their lesson about playing sloppy ball. The focus shifted to this game for UCF in the 4th quarter of last week's win, and I don't believe they fall for the second time in three games.

A clean performance from UCF from start to finish has them winning by 10+, leaving plenty of room for error should the game not turn out so spotless for the Knights under the lights. Cincinnati's interior got whitewashed in that Ohio State game, and UCF should be capable of doing something similar. Really thought this line would be closer to a TD, but I guess that recent loss from UCF has popped their invincibility shield.

The Knights haven't lost three in a row against the number since late in the 2017 season - the one where they won the “National Championship”. Two of those three games saw them laying 39 points or more and that's what got them ATS-wise, and that's nothing we have to worry about here. Sorry Cincinnati, it will be the second primetime football loss this week for football teams in your city.

Best Bet: UCF -4 ½

Friday Best Bet YTD Record: 2-3 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALDS - Rays at Astros
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Tampa Bay 4-3, Under 4-3)

Houston vs. Tampa Bay (Tropicana Field)
Mar. 28 - Astros 5, Rays 1 (Favorite -128, Under 6 ½)
Mar. 29 - Rays 4, Astros 2 (Underdog +128, Under 7)
Mar. 30 - Rays 3, Astros 1 (Underdog +108, Under 8)
Mar. 31 - Rays 3, Astros 1 (Underdog +103, Under 9 ½)

Tampa Bay vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
Aug. 27 - Astros 15, Rays 1 (Favorite -200, Over 7 ½)
Aug. 28 - Astros 8, Rays 6 (Favorite -230, Over 8)
Aug. 29 - Rays 9, Astros 8 (Underdog +200, Over 9)

The Astros (107-55) won a combined 106 games in 2012 and 2013, but Houston set a franchise record with 107 victories this season, while coming off a third consecutive American League West title. Houston captured its first World Series title in 2017 by defeating Los Angeles in seven games, but the Astros fell to the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series in five games in 2018.

Houston actually lost five of its first seven games this season, including dropping three of four at Tropicana Field to Tampa Bay to open 2019. The Astros bounced back to win 10 consecutive games, which included home sweeps of the Athletics and Yankees, while putting together another 10-game hot streak in May to open up at 31-15.

After finishing the first half at 57-33, the Astros went on an 18-3 run from mid-July through mid-August to own an incredible 77-40 mark, capped off by a 23-2 rout of the Orioles on August 10. Houston closed the season on a 12-2 spurt to set the franchise mark for wins in a season, but the bigger story is its three-headed monster in the starting rotation.

There are solid arguments to make for both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole to take home the American League Cy Young award. Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) will start the series opener, as he finished with 300 strikeouts, including 14 in a no-hitter at Toronto on September 1. The Astros won 12 of his 17 starts at Minute Maid Park, although three of those losses came as a favorite of -230 or higher. Verlander defeated the Rays twice this season, including in a 15-1 home rout on August 27 as a -190 favorite.

Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) put together a career season as the right-hander is 35-10 in two years with the Astros since getting dealt by the Pirates. The Astros won Cole’s final 13 starts of the season, while the ace last lost a decision on May 22 against the White Sox. Houston owns a 12-0 record in Cole’s past 12 home outings, as nine of those wins came by two runs or more. Cole wasn’t sharp against the Rays in two starts this season by allowing four runs each time, including in an 8-6 home win on August 28 in which he struck out 14 batters in 6.2 innings.

The third ace in this rotation has a Cy Young in his career and joined the team in late July as Zack Greinke (18-5, 3.06 ERA) is seeking his first career championship. The Astros won eight of Greinke’s 10 starts following his trade from Arizona on July 31, as seven of the eight victories came by two runs or more. Greinke struggled in his lone outing against Tampa Bay this season by yielding five runs in 5.2 innings of a 9-8 home defeat on August 29 as a hefty -220 favorite.

The Rays (97-66) are the near bottom of the league in payroll, but Tampa Bay posted the second-most wins in franchise history this season with 96 victories. The 97th win came in Wednesday’s impressive 5-1 triumph over Oakland in the American League Wild Card game to advance to the ALDS for the first time since 2013.

Tampa Bay started strong this season with a 14-4 mark, while dipping below the .500 mark only once after losing the opener as the Rays finished the first half at 52-39 following a pair of one-run home wins over the Yankees. The Rays’ longest losing streak was five games, which came in July, but a 14-3 run in late July through mid-August vaulted Tampa Bay to 71-50.

Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) joins Cole as another former Pirates’ pitcher that was traded and excelled in his next stop. Glasnow began 2019 on fire by winning six of his first seven decisions before sustaining a right forearm strain that landed him on the 60-day injured list. The right-hander didn’t pitch past the fifth inning in any of his four starts off the IL, as Glasnow receives the call for Game 1. Glasnow saw success against the Astros back in March 30 by yielding one earned run in five innings of work of a 3-1 victory at Tropicana Field.

Blake Snell (6-8, 4.29 ERA) is the third Cy Young winner to take the mound in this series, as the Rays’ left-hander tries to avoid the “one-hit wonder” moniker. Snell put together a 21-5 record along with a miniscule 1.89 ERA in 2018, but injuries derailed the southpaw, including missing two months due to an elbow injury. Snell began the season by allowing five earned runs and three home runs in a 5-1 defeat to the Astros, while the Rays went 4-8 in his 12 road starts.

Tampa Bay owned identical 48-33 records at both home and on the road this season, but went 7-15 away from Tropicana Field against playoff teams. That number improved to 8-15 after winning at Oakland, but the Rays lost two of three games at Houston in late August, including a 15-1 drubbing in the opener.

Houston put together the best home record in baseball at 60-21, as the Astros posted a 27-6 mark at Minute Maid Park after the All-Star break. The Astros have won five of their last six playoff series openers since 2015, including a perfect 3-0 mark at home. Houston and Tampa Bay have never met in the postseason, while the Rays are seeking their first trip to the ALCS since winning the pennant back in 2008.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALDS - Twins at Yankees
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (New York 4-2, Over 5-1)

New York vs. Minnesota (Yankee Stadium)
May 3 - Yankees 6, Twins 3 (Favorite -150, Over 7 ½)
May 4 - Twins 7, Yankees 3 (Underdog +104, Over 9)
May 5 - Yankees 4, Twins 1 (Favorite -134, Under 8 ½)

Minnesota vs. New York (Target Field)
July 22 - Twins 8 Yankees 6 (Underdog +106, Over 11)
July 23 - Yankees 14 Twins 12 (Favorite -116, Over 10)
July 24 - Yankees 10 Twins 7 (Favorite -117, Over 11)

The only divisional series involving a pair of 100-win teams from the regular season takes place between the Yankees and Twins. New York (103-59) claimed its first American League East title since 2012 and its first 100-victory season since 2009, the last time the Bronx Bombers won a world championship.

The Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers all struggled to start the season and still finished with over 100 wins as New York actually began 8-10 before winning nine of 10 to sit at 17-11. New York began to separate itself from the rest of the pack in the division starting June 17 as the Yankees pulled off a 16-2 run and finished the first half at 57-31.

James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA) will get the ball in the series opener for the Yankees as the southpaw has caught fire at the right time. New York has won each of Paxton’s last 11 starts dating back to the beginning of August, while the Yankees have scored at least five runs in each of his past 10 appearances. Paxton faced the Twins at home in early May, as he lasted only three innings in a 6-3 win, while leaving early due to knee soreness.

Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) put together the most uneven season of his career, which included New York winning 11 of 12 starts from June through August. In that lone loss during that stretch, Tanaka was tagged for 12 runs in less than four innings of a 19-3 drubbing at Boston. The Yankees lost five of Tanaka’s first seven starts of the season, while New York alternated wins and losses in his final seven starts. Tanaka didn’t face the Twins this season, as the Yankees are looking to improve on a 3-1 record in his past four playoff appearances.

The Twins (101-61) were in control of the AL Central from May through the end of the season for their first division championship since 2010. Minnesota last won over 100 games way back in 1965, as that Twins’ squad lost in the World Series to Los Angeles. This year’s team notched 307 home runs, which set a Major League record for most long balls hit in a season. The next highest total belonged to the Yankees, who drilled 306 homers.

Five Twins’ sluggers went deep at least 30 times this season, led by Nelson Cruz’s 41 dingers. Right fielder Max Kepler (36), third baseman Miguel Sano (34), left fielder Eddie Rosario (32), and catcher Mitch Garver (31) round out the list, but Rosario and Cruz were the only two Twins to drive in more than 100 runs.

In 2018, the Twins won their 40th game on July 9 to improve to 40-48. In 2019, Minnesota grabbed its 40th victory on June 2 to move to 40-18. The Indians trimmed the Twins’ deficit to three games in late August, but Minnesota pulled away over the final month. The Twins went 13-4 to close out the season, while the Indians flamed out by losing their last five games to end a three-year playoff run.

Jose Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA) makes his first career playoff start for Minnesota as the Twins posted a 12-5 record in his 17 outings on the road. The Twins lost three of Berrios’ five starts in the role of an away underdog, as the right-hander didn’t square off against the Yankees this season. In 2018, New York tagged Berrios for five runs in four innings of an 8-3 victory in the Bronx, as he looks to give the Twins their first playoff win since 2004.

Dating back to 2003, the Twins have appeared in the playoffs six times. During this stretch, the Yankees have eliminated Minnesota on five occasions, including in back-to-back ALDS sweeps in 2009 and 2010. New York knocked out Minnesota in the 2017 Wild Card in the Bronx, 8-4, as the Twins seek their first playoff series victory since outlasting the Athletics in five games of the 2002 ALDS.

The season series was won by the Yankees, 4-2, as New York captured each of the two series. In probably the game of the year in Major League Baseball on July 23 at Target Field, the Twins built an 8-2 lead before the Yankees rallied back for a 10-9 advantage in the 8th inning. Minnesota scored two in the bottom of the 8th before New York grabbed back the lead in the top of the 9th with two runs. The Twins scratched a run across in the bottom of the 9th to force extra innings tied at 12-12, but the Yankees posted two runs in the top of the 10th for the dramatic 14-12 triumph.

New York has lost its past three playoff series openers (not including the Wild Card round) since 2017, but all three defeats came away from the Bronx. The Yankees are listed at -240 to win this series at the Westgate Superbook (Bet $240 to win $100), while the Twins sit at +190 to move forward to the ALCS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Weather Report

Friday, October 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

919ST LOUIS -920 ATLANTA
ST LOUIS are 14-20 SU (-13.9 Units) in road games vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game in the current season.

921WASHINGTON -922 LA DODGERS
WASHINGTON is 75-45 SU (26.5 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

923MINNESOTA -924 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 44-19 SU (27 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

925TAMPA BAY -926 HOUSTON
TAMPA BAY is 12-1 SU (10.9 Units) in road games when playing on Friday in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 4

American League
Rays (97-66) @ Astros (107-55)
Glasnow is 0-0, 1.46 in four starts (12.1 IP) since coming off the IL; he stretched out to 66 pitches in his last start. Glasnow is 1-0, 1.80 in one start vs Houston- this is his first playoff start.

Verlander is 6-2, 1.94 in his last nine starts; he is 10-4, 3.17 in 20 starts vs Tampa Bay, and is 13-7, 3.19 in 25 playoff games (24 starts), 6-2, 2.83 in eight playoff starts for Houston.

Rays won the Wild Card game Wednesday; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in the ALCS, winning their first one in 2008, losing the last three.

Houston is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won 2017 World Series, lost ALCS LY. Astros are 3-4 vs Tampa Bay this year; home side won five of the seven games.

Twins (101-61) @ New York (103-59)
Berrios is 3-0, 2.08 in his last four starts; he is 1-2, 5.79 in three starts vs NYY, 0-2, 9.82 in two starts in the Bronx (allowed 8 runs in 7.1 IP). Berrios gave up three runs in three IP in his only postseason start, which was here two years ago.

Paxton is 10-1, 2.51 in his last 11 starts; he is 3-1, 2.27 in six starts vs Minnesota. Paxton missed his last start with a pulled glute muscle; this is his first playoff start.

Minnesota lost Wild Card game here in 2017, their only playoff appearance since 2010; they’re 2-4 vs NYY this year, with road team winning four of the six games. Average total in those six games was 13.5.

New York is in playoffs for 4th time in last seven years, after making it 17 of 18 years before that; they won three of last five trips to the ALDS.

National League
Cardinals (1-0) @ Braves
Flaherty is 4-2, 1.13 in his last eight starts; he is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts vs Atlanta. This is his first playoff appearance.

Foltynewicz is 4-1, 1.50 in his last five starts; he is 3-4, 7.64 in seven starts vs St Louis and is 0-1, 7.50 in two playoff starts.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are 3-4 in seven games with Atlanta this year, 2-2 in this ballpark- they scored six runs in last two innings yesterday.

Atlanta is in playoffs for 2nd year in a row after a 4-year absence; they lost their last seven appearances in the NLDS, dating back to 2002. Atlanta’s seven relievers allowed six runs in Game 1, while getting only 14 outs.

Nationals @ Dodgers (1-0)
Strasburg threw three scoreless innings in relief Tuesday; he is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four starts, and is 3-5, 2.54 in 11 starts vs LA, 0-3, 2.08 in four starts at Dodger Stadium. Strasburg is 2-2, 0.41 in four career playoff games (3 starts).

Kershaw is 3-0, 2.79 in his last four games; he is 12-3, 2.23 in 17 games (16 starts) vs Washington, and is 9-10, 4.32 in 30 career playoff games (24 starts).

Washington won the Wild Card game Tuesday, then got shut out last night; they’re in playoffs for fifth time in eight years. Nationals lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game..

Dodgers are 5-3 vs Washington this year, 3-2 in games games played here; average total in the four games played in LA is 6.0. LA is in playoffs for 7th year in a row, losing the World Series the last two years.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, October 4

Trend Report

Houston Astros
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 24 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 17 of St. Louis's last 24 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
NY Yankees is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 12 games at home
NY Yankees is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Yankees is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington

Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 4


Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 925-926
October 4, 2019 @ 2:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 15.414
Houston
(Verlander) 17.843
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-220
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-220); Under

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 919-920
October 4, 2019 @ 4:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 16.888
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 15.623
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-125); Under

Minnesota @ NY Yankees

Game 923-924
October 4, 2019 @ 7:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Berrios) 14.818
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 16.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-185
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-185); Under

Washington @ LA Dodgers

Game 921-922
October 4, 2019 @ 9:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 16.653
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (92 - 71) at ATLANTA (97 - 66) - 4:37 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
FLAHERTY is 28-33 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLAHERTY is 14-18 (-12.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 97-66 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 18-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
ATLANTA is 74-52 (+11.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 17-8 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 45-34 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 92-71 (+5.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-21 (+8.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ST LOUIS is 86-75 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 36-21 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-55 (+5.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 25-19 (+10.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 46-60 (-31.6 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 31-45 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-3 (+1.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
FLAHERTY is 1-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.080.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 3-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 7.63 and a WHIP of 1.757.
His team's record is 3-4 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-6. (-5.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (94 - 70) at LA DODGERS (107 - 56) - 9:37 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 176-150 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 20-28 (-17.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 107-95 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 42-45 (-17.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 28-11 (+11.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 60-22 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 76-34 (+23.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 146-105 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 38-33 (-18.7 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-3 (+1.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
STRASBURG is 3-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 0.930.
His team's record is 3-8 (-7.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-5. (-1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KERSHAW is 13-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 0.986.
His team's record is 15-3 (+9.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (+0.1 units)

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MINNESOTA (101 - 61) at NY YANKEES (103 - 59) - 7:07 PM
JOSE BERRIOS (R) vs. JAMES PAXTON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 40-12 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 21-3 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 45-27 (+17.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 101-61 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 55-26 (+28.5 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 24-13 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 67-37 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 44-18 (+22.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-2 (+1.7 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.9 Units)

JOSE BERRIOS vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BERRIOS is 1-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.79 and a WHIP of 1.786.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

JAMES PAXTON vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
PAXTON is 3-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.074.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-2. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (97 - 66) at HOUSTON (107 - 55) - 2:05 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 187-138 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 88-75 (+7.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 116-69 (+29.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 77-70 (+20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 39-23 (+24.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 69-44 (-7.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 37-35 (-22.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-20 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 21-17 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-3 (+2.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. HOUSTON since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.3 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VERLANDER is 10-4 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 14-6 (+5.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-13. (-9.1 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

Evangeline Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $5,500 • Post: 6:00P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS ROCKIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. SIZZLE BABY SIZZLE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. ROMANTIC HISPANIC: Horse ranks in the top three in av erage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MAUVAIS BOJ: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. KATIE MAE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation.
5	JESS ROCKIN	15/1	5/1
6	SIZZLE BABY SIZZLE	3/1	6/1
1	ROMANTIC HISPANIC	6/1	8/1
8	MAUVAIS BOJ	8/1	9/1
4	KATIE MAE	4/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ROMANTIC HISPANIC	1	6/1	Average	71	72	4.3	0.0	0.0
2	JM VALIANT DASH	2	5/2	Slow	70	62	6.9	0.0	0.0
3	DASHING RED LEXUS	3	12/1	Slow	72	64	6.7	0.0	0.0
4	KATIE MAE	4	4/1	Fast	70	69	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	JESS ROCKIN	5	15/1	Fast	79	78	2.3	0.0	0.0
6	SIZZLE BABY SIZZLE	6	3/1	Fast	76	72	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	OUACHITA SPECIAL	7	5/1	Slow	64	63	6.6	0.0	0.0
8	MAUVAIS BOJ	8	8/1	Fast	73	69	3.2	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Allowance • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $36,500 • Post: 3:39P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE SEPTEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. NATIVE LION is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NATIVE LION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest Tra ckMaster Power Rating. DRINKATTHECREEK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	NATIVE LION	4/1	5/2
3	DRINKATTHECREEK	7/5	4/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	LADY STELLA	5	2/1	Stalker	59	58	46.1	65.3	55.8
7	TWO CARROT RANSOM	7	12/1	Stalker	73	72	30.3	64.9	59.9
4	NATIVE LION	4	4/1	Trailer	79	76	73.0	73.9	70.9
3	DRINKATTHECREEK	3	7/5	Trailer	78	81	52.1	69.2	64.2
1	WANNA HAVE FUN	1	8/1	Trailer	66	64	49.3	60.7	50.7
2	GIVEUSTHISDAY	2	20/1	Trailer	71	69	26.5	55.0	42.5
6	HIP TANG	6	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	72	72.8	62.0	51.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park West

10/04/19, GPW, Race 1, 1.00 ET
5F [Turf] 00.54.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $29,000.
Claiming Price $35,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quiniela / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1 -5) / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	7	Yei Yei	7/2	Lopez P	Azpurua. Jr. Leo	JFEL
098.7941	11	Poznan	8-1	Santos A	Arriagada Juan	SW
097.1698	1	Bolt	9/2	Zayas E J	Alvarado Juan
096.3444	9	Alaskan	3-1	Torres C A	Pinchin Jose
096.2974	10	Danzo	8-1	Vasquez M A	Negrete Javier
096.0181	4	Where Ya Goin Owen	10-1	Berrios H I	Sanchez Amador Merei	T
093.7984	8	El Solitario	15-1	Panici L	D'Angelo Francisco
093.7221	6	Think Like Tommy	10-1	Sanchez J	Antonucci Jena M.
092.8670	3	Fastdriven	15-1	Batista J A	Minguet Ramon
092.2263	5	Wild Wine	12-1	Montalvo C	D'Angelo Francisco
091.5189	2	Into Magarayquaza	12-1	Zapico S	Mejia Jaime	C

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

7	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
11	41.40	1.16	34.62	45	130	[All Surfaces] Best Workouts
1	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
9	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
10	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
4	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
8	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
6	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
3	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
5	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3
2	35.00	1.53	39.39	13	33	[Turf MdnMClm] Horse Not Age 3

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	7	Yei Yei	7/2	Lopez P	Azpurua. Jr. Leo	JEWL
098.0283	1	Bolt	9/2	Zayas E J	Alvarado Juan
097.4232	11	Poznan	8-1	Santos A	Arriagada Juan	SF
096.5203	4	Where Ya Goin Owen	10-1	Berrios H I	Sanchez Amador Merei	T
095.8112	9	Alaskan	3-1	Torres C A	Pinchin Jose
094.2289	10	Danzo	8-1	Vasquez M A	Negrete Javier
093.5275	8	El Solitario	15-1	Panici L	D'Angelo Francisco
093.0805	5	Wild Wine	12-1	Montalvo C	D'Angelo Francisco
092.7509	6	Think Like Tommy	10-1	Sanchez J	Antonucci Jena M.
092.5257	3	Fastdriven	15-1	Batista J A	Minguet Ramon
090.5320	2	Into Magarayquaza	12-1	Zapico S	Mejia Jaime	C

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPW.

7	43.40	1.26	40.24	33	82	[All Dirt] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
1	43.40	1.26	40.24	33	82	[All Dirt] Last Race Weight Is Less Than Today
11	3.60	1.90	100.00	2	2	[All Surfaces] *Actual Post Greater Than 9 And Distance 5f or 5 1/2f
4	5.00	1.50	60.00	3	5	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
10	3.60	1.90	100.00	2	2	[All Surfaces] *Actual Post Greater Than 9 And Distance 5f or 5 1/2f
5	5.00	1.50	60.00	3	5	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
3	5.00	1.50	60.00	3	5	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5
2	5.00	1.50	60.00	3	5	[Dirt MdnMClm] *Race Entries Not Greater Than 5

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.