Saturday 10-5-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Penn State
Play on: Purdue +28½ -105 at Bovada

1* Free NCAAF Pick on Purdue Boilermakers +28½ -105
I see a ton of value here with Purdue getting more than 4 touchdowns against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is coming off a 59-0 win at Maryland as a mere 6-point favorite to improve to 3-1 ATS on the season. Public was a little cautious backing this team early with all the new faces, but not any more.
The perception with Purdue is that they are done for. Not only are they off to a 1-3 start, but they may have just lost starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar for the rest of the season and future NFL wide out Rondale Moore is sidelined with a hamstring injury. They just lost at home 38-31 to Minnesota. Even though the Gophers are 4-0, they are considered to be a fluke so most see that as a bad loss.
No one is giving the Boilermakers any kind of chance to not only win but keep this close. I think Jeff Brohm's team responds with a huge effort. At the same time, I see this as a huge trap game for Penn State. They were clearly out to make a statement against Maryland and certainly can't feel threatened by Purdue here. Not to mention they got a huge road game at Iowa on deck, with a home game against Michigan and road slate at Michigan State after that.
This is a young Penn State team, which I think makes them a little more vulnerable to letdowns. Nittany Lions are just 7-19 (27%) ATS in their last 26 home games after covering 3 of their last 4. Boilermakers 11-4-2 ATS last 17 on the road vs a team with a winning record and Brohm has a 10-2 ATS mark as a head coach vs top tier teams that are outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. Take Purdue!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Army
Play on: UNDER 43½ -105

1* Free Sharp Play on Tulane vs Army under 43½ -105
My money is on the UNDER 43.5 in Saturday's showdown between Army and Tulane. Any time you get two option teams, the under is worth a look. Both sides want to grind out possessions and eat up the clock. There's just not enough opportunities to score and no guarantee the drive will end in a touchdown. On top of that, we got two talented football teams. Unlike a lot of other teams, they know how to stop the option from seeing it every day in practice. BET THE UNDER 43.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Purdue vs Penn State
Play on: Penn State -28 -109 at GTBets

Free Play on Penn State -28 -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma vs Kansas
Play on: Oklahoma -34 -110 at BMaker

Free Play on Oklahoma -34 -110
The #6 team in the country in Oklahoma (4-0) take on a struggling Kansas (2-3) team. The Sooners have looked like one of the best teams in the country this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is off to a great start to the season and looks like a certain Heisman finalist. Oklahoma's offense is first in yards per play, third in rushing, seventh in passing, and second in total points scored. Defensively this team has improved from last season and is 35th in points allowed. Kansas lost to a bad West Virginia team two weeks and are coming off a blow out loss to TCU last week 51-14. Les Miles first year in Kansas is not looking good. Oklahoma should come in and blow Kansas away for a second striaght week. 34 points won't be enough as this Sooners team should win by more than five touchdowns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs LSU
Play on: Utah State +28 -110 at Bovada

Play - Utah State (Game 393).
Edges - Aggies: 14-2 SU last 16 overall games, with losses by a combined total of 12 points, and 3-0 ATS versus non-conference foes the last two seasons … Tigers: 4-10 ATS as a home favorite before facing Florida, and in the middle of a live SEC sandwich … We recommend a 1* play on Utah State. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Tulane vs Army
Play on: Tulane -3 -120 at Mirage

Tulane is off an impressive 38-31 victory vs the Houston Cougars two weeks ago before their bye week and looked viable against Auburn in a 24-6 loss in their 2nd game of the campaign.
Now Tulane is getting alot of respect here in this matchup and rightly so. I know Army has not been an easy team to play against over the last couple of seasons, especially at home, but with QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr not 100% with an injured leg, the Cadets may not be as cohesive as needed vs a under rated Green Wave team that is built to handle the triple option. With that said Im betting on a well rested Tulane side to bring us home the cash here this Saturday.
ARMY is 2-11 ATS in home games against American Athletic conference opponents since 1992.
CFB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARMY) - after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 7-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Tulane to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech
Play on: UNDER 64 -110

Free Total Annihilator On Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech under 64 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

Oct 05 '19, 12:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-F | South Florida vs Connecticut
Play on: Connecticut +11 -109 at GTBets

We used South Florida as a touchdown home underdog last week and now it goes from that role to a double-digit road favorite which is a huge adjustment for a bad team to make. The Bulls are off to a 1-3 start and this is just their second road game of the season. The first resulted in a four-point loss at Georgia Tech which may seem like a quality loss but Georgia Tech is garbage. South Florida currently ranks 122nd nationally in total offense (304.8 ypg), 123rd in rushing offense (97.5 ypg) and 103rd in run defense (188.8 ypg). The Bulls also are allowing five sacks a game, which ranks last nationally. The Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Connecticut is certainly no prize as its lone victory came against Wagner of the FCS but it did play well against Illinois in its only other home game. The Huskies are coming off a pair of road losses at Indiana and Central Florida although they were able to cover the latter. They had a bye prior to the game against the Illini so this marks their first home game in a month. Connecticut is allowing 395.5 ypg which is a quantum leap from last season where they allowed 617.4 ypg. The Huskies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games coming off two consecutive road losses. Play (312) Connecticut Huskies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Ball State vs Northern Illinois
Play on: UNDER 55 -110

1* Free Play on Ball State/Northern Illinois under55 -110
With a combined record of 2-6, the Ball State Cardinals (1-3) and Northern Illinois Huskies (1-3) are set to do battle Saturday afternoon. The over/under is set at 55 points.
The Cardinals’ lone win of the season came against Fordham in early September. While allowing at least 34 points in every other contest, Ball State has lost to Indiana, FAU, and NC State.
On average, the Cardinals are scoring 34 points per game on 470 yards of offense while allowing 35 points per game on 417 yards.
The Ball State offense is led by quarterback Drew Plitt, who’s thrown for 1,373 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes.
After facing and beating Illinois State in the season opener, Northern Illinois has played a relatively tough schedule. The Huskies lost three straight away games to #13 Utah, Nebraska, and Vanderbilt.
On average, Northern Illinois is scoring 17 points per game on 357 yards of offense while allowing 28 points per game on 385 yards.
Quarterback Ross Bowers hasn’t been as effective as the Huskies would like. While completing 59.4% of his passes, Bowers has thrown for 1,056 yards, four touchdowns, and three picks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Hunter

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Minnesota
Play on: Illinois +14 -102 at pinnacle

*3 Star Free Pick* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are 4-0, but they are 69th in the nation in yards per play margin. Minnesota has been extremely fortunate to win all four games so far this year. The Golden Gophers haven't played very well. Minnesota's rushing attack is averaging just 2.63 yards per carry so far this year.
Illinois only lost by 7 points at Minnesota two years ago as 14.5 point underdogs. The Fighting Illini crushed Minnesota last year 55-31 as Illinois ran for 430 yards. The Fighting Illini have enough talent to be more competitive in the Big Ten this year. Illinois is averaging 4.59 yards per carry so far this year, and I would expect them to run the ball a lot in this contest.
The weather is pretty significant here. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds and there is even a slight chance of a little rain early in the game. Heavy wind games have gone strongly towards big underdogs ATS in the long run because it can be an equalizer.
Minnesota is 4-0, but hasn't won a game by more than a touchdown so far this year. I'll grab the points. Take Illinois.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Minnesota
Play on: Minnesota -13½ -111 at BMaker

10* FREE NCAAF (Minnesota -13.5)
I know it hasn’t exactly been pretty for Minnesota early on in 2019, but I think they are hands down the better team in this matchup. In fact, I think because the Gophers have won ugly in a lot of their games and last time we saw Illinois they nearly upset Nebraska, the public will have a hard time laying this number with Minnesota.
I just think it was perfect storm for Illinois to make a game of it against the Cornhuskers. Nebraska was off a blowout win over Northern Illinois and had a massive game on deck at home against Ohio State. If the Cornhuskers simply take care of the football they win that game by 20+. They had a 375 yard edge in total yards.
Keep in mind, that looks a lot worse after how bad Nebraska just looked against Ohio State. Clearly they aren’t as good as we thought and yet they dominated Illinois. The other team the Fighting Illini lost to was Eastern Michigan and they needed a blocked punt return for a TD to beat Central Connecticut State at home last week. Their two wins are against Akron and UConn, who are a combined 1-8 with the only win by UConn 24-21 at home against Wagner.
The other thing to take into account is what happened in this matchup last year. There’s some losses you just brush off and there’s others that stick in the back of your head. I have a hard time believing that P.J. Fleck isn’t going to constantly be reminding his players of how awful they played in last year’s loss to Illinois.
I just think it’s going to be really tough for the Fighting Illini to keep this within the number. Give me Minnesota -13.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Western Michigan vs Toledo
Play on: Western Michigan +1½ -110 at Mirage

#367 ASA FREE PLAY ON Western Michigan +1.5 over Toledo, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - This line opened with Toledo -4 and they have dropped to -1.5. Strange line move here as we would presume most would see this number and jump on the low home favorite Toledo who steps in with a 3-1 record vs a Bronco team with a 3-2 record. The Rockets are getting the majority of the tickets here yet this line dropped a full 2.5 points. That triggers a play on WMU for us. We agree with the move and like the match up here for Western Michigan. The Broncos 2 losses this year have come @ Michigan State and @ Syracuse, both expected. The only team to outgain Western Michigan this year is MSU and the Broncos are averaging 7.4 YPP while allowing just 5.9 YPP on the season. Their offense is very tough to slow down as they average 500 YPG on the year (200 rushing / 300 passing) and they have scored more than 30 points in every game with the exception of Michigan State who has one of the best defense teams in the nation. Toledo is 3-1 as we mentioned but they have been outgained by every FBS opponent they’ve faced this year. The only team they outgained this season was Murray State. Last week they played host to BYU and the Cougars led for most of the game but missed 2 FG’s and were shut out on downs twice inside Toledo territory. BYU outgained Toledo despite running 14 fewer offensive plays. The Rockets got an interception and returned it to the 2-yard line and scored a TD on the next play late in the game to pick up the 28-21 win. They were very fortunate. This is a revenger for Western Michigan as they lost at home to Toledo last year as a 4-point favorite. The Broncos lost starting QB Wassink early in the game to an injury and could not overcome it. The underdog has covered 10 of the last 13 in this MAC rivalry and we have Western rated as the better team here. We’ll take the points with Western Michigan.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Ball State vs Northern Illinois
Play on: Ball State +4½ -105 at YouWager

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Ball State +4.5
The Key: The Ball State Cardinals are a veteran team that is certainly improved under head coach Mike Neu this season. They brought back 17 starters and could make some noise in the MAC this year. They are 1-3, but all 3 losses came to quality opponents. They only lost by 10 at Indiana as 17.5-point dogs, by 10 at home to FAU, and by 11 as 19-point road dogs at NC State. Northern Illinois is also 1-3 in what is clearly a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. Their only win came against Illinois State, and they weren’t very competitive in road losses to Utah and Nebraska. They were competitive against Vanderbilt, but the Commodores are arguably the worst team in the SEC. Ball State is 19-5 ATS in its last 24 games as a road dog of 7 points or less. NIU is 0-6 ATS off a game where it forced zero turnovers over the last 3 years. Take Ball State.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Virginia Tech vs Miami-FL
Play on: UNDER 47 -109

FREE PLAY on Virginia Tech/Miami-FL under 47 -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Oct 05 '19, 3:30 PM in 8h
NCAA-F | Auburn vs Florida
Play on: Auburn -2½ -110 at Buckeye

My free play is on Auburn at 3:30 ET. No. 7 Auburn (5-0, 2-0 SEC) and No. 10 Florida (5-0, 2-0 SEC) are two of 18 remaining FBS schools and one will fall from teh ranks of the unbetaen Saturday, when the Tigers in "The Swamp" to take on the Gators. Thanks to the SEC's quirky inter-division scheduling model, the two schools haven't played in EIGHT years. The Tigers come in with an almost impeccable resume, owning two wins against top-25 opponents, beating then-No. 11 Oregon 27-21 back on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx plus added a 28-20 win at then-No. 17 Texas A&M on Sep 21. The Tigers are not just 5-0, they are one of just FOUR schools also unbeaten ATS. In stark contrast, the Gators face their first significant test of the season, after two victories versus FCS squads and with its three FBS wins coming against teams that are a combined 5-8. Auburn's freshman QB Bo Nix (first time since 1946 that Auburn has started a freshman at QB) is coming off the best game of his brief career, passing for 335 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 56 yards and a score in last Saturday's 56-23 over Miss St. He leads an offense averaging 38.0 PPG (14th), while getting outstanding support from a rushing game averaging 25.1 8 YPG (14th). The Auburn defense checks in allowing 17.2 PPG (22nd) on 320.2 YPG (32nd). Florida lost starting QB Feleipe Franks back on Sep 21 in a 29-21 win over Kentucky. Junior QB Kyle Trask finished off that win and has started 34-3 and 38-0 wins over Tennessee and Towson, respectively. Trask is completing 77.3% but has a modest five TD passes and three INTs. His running game doesn't come close to giving him the support Nix gets at Auburn, as the Gators are averaging just 141.8 YPG (89th). However, the Gators are allowing just 8.8 PPG (5th) on 284.0 YPG (18th). This is no run-of-the-mill game, as it's the first top-10 matchup at Florida Field since the Gators routed South Carolina 44-11 in October of 2012. It is also the first top-10 matchup featuring two undefeated teams since Florida edged LSU 14-6 that same season. Yes, Florida owns the home-field edge but Auburn is the WAY more complete team. At this price, I say play the Tigers. Good luck...Larry