Thursday 10-10-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 08:56 AM

105LA MONROE -106 TEXAS ST
LA MONROE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

107SYRACUSE -108 NC STATE
NC STATE is 34-18 ATS (14.2 Units) after 2 straight unders since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 08:56 AM

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA MONROE (2 - 3) at TEXAS ST (2 - 3) - 10/10/2019, 9:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA MONROE is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA MONROE over the last 3 seasons
LA MONROE is 2-0 straight up against TEXAS ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SYRACUSE (3 - 2) at NC STATE (3 - 2) - 10/10/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SYRACUSE is 2-0 against the spread versus NC STATE over the last 3 seasons
NC STATE is 1-1 straight up against SYRACUSE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 08:57 AM

NCAAF

Week 7

Trend Report

Thursday, October 10

SYRACUSE @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE
SYRACUSE
Syracuse is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Syracuse is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
NORTH CAROLINA STATE
North Carolina State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of North Carolina State's last 5 games

LOUISIANA-MONROE @ TEXAS STATE
LOUISIANA-MONROE
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 12 games on the road
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas State
TEXAS STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas State's last 7 games at home
Texas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Louisiana-Monroe

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 08:57 AM

NCAAF

Week 7

Thursday’s games

UL Monroe won its last three games with Texas State by 6-18-6 points; underdogs covered four of last six series games. WarHawks are 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, allowing 219+ RY in all four games- they also give up 243 RY to a I-AA team. ULM is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as road favorites- they won two of last three visits to San Marcos. Texas State is also 1-3 vs I-A teams; they beat a I-AA team 24-3 LW. Bobcats allowed 28.5 ppg in their two I-A home games; since 2016, they’re 4-11 ATS as a home underdog.

NC State won six of last seven games with Syracuse, but lost 51-41 (-2.5) in the Carrier Dome LY; underdogs covered seven of last eight series games. Orangemen lost 42-29/33-25 in their last two visits to Raleigh. State lost two of its last three games, allowing 44-31 points; they’re 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. Syracuse split its four I-A games, allowing 200+ YR in last three, when they also allowed 45.7 ppg. Under Babers, Orangemen are 9-4 ATS when getting points on the road. ACC home favorites are 4-5 ATS so far this season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 08:58 AM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 7

Thursday, October 10

LA-Monroe @ Texas State

Game 105-106
October 10, 2019 @ 9:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Monroe
69.960
Texas State
70.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas State
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Monroe
by 3 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Texas State
(+3 1/2); Under

Syracuse @ NC State

Game 107-108
October 10, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Syracuse
90.077
NC State
80.751
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Syracuse
by 9 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 4 1/2
57
Dunkel Pick:
Syracuse
(+4 1/2); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 08:59 AM

Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 11

Matchup Skinny
Edge

ULM at TEXAS STATE...ULM only 1-6 vs. spread last seven on board, 4-11 last 15 vs. points. Spavital finally got a cover vs. Nicholls but Bobcats were 0-4-1 vs. spread the five previous dating to late last season. Road team has covered last three in series.
Slight to ULM, based on series trends.

SYRACUSE at NC STATE...Cuse 7-2 vs. spread last nine on ACC road. Babers however only 2-3 vs. spread TY after 10-3 mark in 2018. Pack no covers last 4 vs. spread.
Slight to Syracuse, based on team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:00 AM

Betting Recap - Week 5
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 5 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 6-6-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 6-7
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-5

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE YEAR-TO-DATE RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 46-29-1
Against the Spread 31-43-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 33-42-1
Against the Spread 26-48-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 36-40

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Colts (+11, ML +425) at Chiefs, 19-13
Raiders (+6.5, ML +250) vs. Bears, 24-21
Broncos (+4.5, ML +200) at Chargers, 20-13
Packers (+3.5, ML +160) at Cowboys, 34-24
Bills (+3, ML +160) at Titans, 14-7
Cardinals (+3, ML +140) at Bengals, 26-23

The largest favorite to cover
Patriots (-16.5) at Redskins, 33-7
Eagles (-14) vs. Jets, 31-6
Vikings (-6) at Giants, 28-10
Texans (-4) vs. Falcons, 53-32
Panthers (-3) vs. Jaguars, 34-27
Saints (-3) vs. Buccaneers, 31-24

Chief Concern

-- The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to mow over the Indianapolis Colts (+11, ML +425) at Arrowhead on Sunday Night Football. The Colts entered the game with several defensive backs banged up, and other falling like flies in the first half. But, cliche' totally intended, that's why they play the games. The Colts fought to a 13-10 halftime lead, they held on in a scoreless third quarter, and actually pushed their lead to 19-10 before the Chiefs booted a field goal in the fourth quarter for the low-scoring 19-13 road victory.

The Chiefs had scored 25 or more points in 25 consecutive games, an NFL record, but that's all over now. QB Patrick Mahomes also dinged up his already nagging ankle injury, and his lack of mobility made him look rather mortal. And the lack of discipline, racking up 11 penalties for 125 yards, certainly didn't help matters either. The Chiefs also lost WR Sammy Watkins, LB Anthony Hitchens, DLs Chris Jones and Xavier Williams to injuries, too. Still, as heavy favorites, they should have been able to overcome. They didn't, and that's a concern going forward.

Jekyll And Hyde Texans

-- The Houston Texans rolled the Atlanta Falcons 53-23 at NRG Stadium, which is how many predicted the Texans offense would look. QB Deshaun Watson finally broke out, and the Texans were on fire in all facets of the game. But then why did they score just 10 last week against the Carolina Panthers in a 16-10 loss at home, especially against a backup QB? The week before they went on the road and won 27-20 at Los Angeles Chargers, following up a 13-12 dud against the Jacksonville Jaguars. They're in one of those weird odd-week, even-week patterns. They're 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in odd-numbered weeks, and 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in even-numbered weeks. We'll see if that continues next Sunday on the road against the Chiefs. Hmm.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Indianapolis Colts-Kansas City Chiefs (55.5) battle, and as mentioned, it didn't even come close. In fact, the Sunday Night Football game has hit the 'under' in all six games, with the underdog 4-2 SU/ATS. File that away for next Sunday's battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chargers.

The second-highest total on the board was the Falcons-Texans (50) game, and Houston took care of the number themselves. The next highest total was the Los Angeles Rams-Seattle Seahawks (48.5) battle on Thursday night, a 30-29 win in favor of the Seahawks. Thursdays are the night of the underdog, going 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS through the first four installments, with the 'over' cashing in the past two.

The next highest total is the Monday Night Football tilt between the Cleveland Browns-San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium, still to be determined.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Buffalo Bills-Tennessee Titans (39) game, the only one with a total in the 30's. The Bills, who have won three straight away games for the first time since the 2004 season, is the only team in the NFL to hit the 'under' in all five of their games so far. It might not be pretty, but they're winning.

The next lowest total was in the London battle at Tottenham Hotspurs Stadium. The Oakland Raiders-Chicago Bears (40) game wasn't a track meet, but it did end up going 'over'. It was just 17-0 at half in favor of the Raiders, but the Bears threw up 21 points in the third quarter to help the total inch over the finish line at 'over'.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 split in the first two primetime games of Week 5, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Browns-49ers (47.5) still pending. The 'over' is 4-11 (26.7%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, and 3-1 in the past four MNF outings.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Giants RB Wayne Gallman (concussion) exited early, as the replacement for RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) needed medical attention of his own. Not good.

-- Steelers QB Mason Rudolph (concussion) was forced out of action, leaving undrafted rookie free-agent QB Devlin Hodges to finish up the game. He did well enough to steer the team to overtime, but they lost to the Ravens 26-23. Cue the Colin Kaepernick talk in the Steel City.

Looking Ahead

-- The Panthers and Buccaneers lock horns in London next Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET. They already played on Thursday night in Week 2, with the Bucs winning 20-14 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, covering as 6 1/2-point underdogs while hitting the 'under' (48). That game was the last time we saw QB Cam Newton (foot). Since then it's QB Kyle Allen starting, going 3-0 SU/ATS in three starts in place of Supercam. In this series, the 'under' has hit in six of the past seven meetings, with the underdog going 6-1 ATS in the previous seven meetings.

-- The Bengals and Ravens will tangle in Charm City, with Cincinnati still searching for its first win of the season. While the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 games inside the AFC North Division, they failed to cover at Pittsburgh two weeks ago in a blowout loss, and most of the stat above was with a team which was NFL caliber, not this current version of the Bengals. The Ravens have failed to cover in five straight games at home, so something's gotta give. Remember, Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in the past five trips to Baltimore, and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

-- In another divisional battle, the 49ers and Rams lock horns in Southern California. The 49ers are 1-5 ATS in the past six NFC West battles, while the Rams are 4-1 ATS in the past five against NFC West foes. That includes a narrow cover as 1 1/2-point underdogs in Seattle, losing 30-29 last Thursday. The 'over' has cashed in five of the past six meetings in L.A., four of the past five meetings overall and the Rams are just 2-5 ATS in the previous seven in this series.

-- On Monday Night Football, the Lions and Packers square off at Lambeau Field, and Green Bay is looking to carry over momentum after a 34-24 win at Dallas. The Lions are well rested, coming off a bye, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven following a week off. The Lions have cashed in four of the past five on the road, while covering five of the past seven appearances on a Monday. The Packers have covered just three of the past 10 inside the NFC North, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven appearances on Monday. In this series, while the Lions have covered four in a row, the favorite has hit in 19 of the past 26. The over is also an impressive 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:00 AM

103NY GIANTS -104 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:00 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

NY Giants @ New England

Game 103-104
October 10, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
126.056
New England
144.884
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 19
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-16 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:01 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (2 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 0) - 10/10/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 265-202 ATS (+42.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 265-202 ATS (+42.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 196-148 ATS (+33.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-86 ATS (+31.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:01 AM

NFL

Week 6

Trend Report

Thursday, October 10

New England Patriots
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
New England is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games at home
New England is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
NY Giants is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 6 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing New England
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Giants is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:02 AM

NFL

Week 6

Giants (2-3) @ Patriots (5-0)— Since 2000, rookie QB’s are 4-7 ATS (0-11 SU) vs New England. Giants won two of three Jones starts, converting 22-42 3rd down plays. Giants scored 32-24 points in their wins, 17 or less in their losses; Big Blue is 11-5 ATS in last 16 games as a road dog. Three of their last four games stayed under. Patriots are 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS; they’re 16-4 ATS in last 20 games as a double digit favorite- over last decade, NE is 47-28-3 when laying points at home. Patriots allowed only two offensive TD’s on 61 drives this season. Teams split 12 meetings, including last four played here; Giants won both Super Bowl meetings. Four of last five series games were decided by 4 or fewer points.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:02 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 6
Matt Blunt

Week of October 7th

Mixed results so far from last week's isolated scenarios, as the 'unders' for teams coming off 40-point performances took a hit with a 2-1 O/U record.

Going against those 40-point performers against the spread the following week as brought a 2-1 ATS record officially, but if you were willing to just take Seattle ML instead of the “dreaded” hook on -1.5, a betting record of 3-0 is possible.

And Week 6 this year is the first time we've got more then two teams on a bye week, and the first time we get a division rematch game as well (Carolina/Tampa Bay). It's not a true home-and-home since they will be playing in London, England, but you know the new-look Panthers with Kyle Allen under center would love to get some revenge.

It's these divisional games that become the focus for this week's piece though,as there are four of them in total – Carolina/Tampa, Cincinnati/Baltimore, San Francisco/LA Rams, and Detroit/Green Bay – and they've all got interesting aspects involved from both the specific and broad view.

Who's Hot

Road teams in NFL Divisional games
15-9 ATS – 11-6 ATS as road underdogs of any number

Not the greatest run in terms of it being 75%-plus or something like that, but these early season division games have been dominated by the road team. A blind 15-9 ATS overall is quite the run in general, and considering road teams only had a losing week in divisional games back in Week 4 (2-4 ATS for road teams), it's something that's proved to be an angle to go back to.

Breaking it down to road underdogs record as well is important because three of the four divisional games this week have road dogs listed, and all are currently getting more than a FG. Depending on how early action shakes out over the next 48 hours or so, these division road dogs could see their spreads drop even lower.

Detroit has already seen a bit of support for their MNF game in Green Bay next week, seeing an opener of 5.5 get bet down to +5 and even some +4.5's, while the initial line on San Francisco that's sitting in the same range, is more stagnant simply because the 49ers still have to play this week. A strong outing from San Fran tonight and you know that number will drop on them next week.

However, the winless Bengals have seen their line go the other way, as it's all been early Baltimore love next week. The Bengals looked awful on MNF against the Steelers, were the first team to lose to Arizona, and have still yet to win a game. I get it, tough to like a team like that and that initial move could be more of simply getting ahead of the masses in general, but I'm not sure what there is to like about Baltimore's spot laying all those points?

It's the third straight division game for the Ravens, after getting waxed by Cleveland, and escaping Pittsburgh with a win. Eventually all that emotional energy is tough to replace, and even though it is the Bengals coming to visit, having Cincinnati winless has to take some of the fear of losing this game out of the equation for Baltimore. The Ravens also have a road trip to play a very good Seattle team on deck, and given the success of division road dogs this year, that sure does look like a lot of points to cover for the Ravens next week.

Who's Not

Betting 'overs' in Divisional games
6-18 O/U in 2019

A run like this for 'under' bettors in divisional affairs isn't all that surprising given the general strength of 'unders' cashing in general this year, but to hit at a 75% clip in a broad isolated scenario like division games is quite the run.

Now this would be a run I'd be a bit more hesitant to blindly ride, as Week 5 saw division games finish with a 3-1 O/U record as some regression to the mean was bound to be on the horizon. We still may have not seen the full brightness of said horizon which makes these 'unders' a little harder to back without digging deeper. But having a place to start is never a bad thing.

With the Carolina/Tampa game actually being a division rematch game already, and being played in London, it will be interesting to see where this total shakes out. Early money has been all about the 'over' as an early 46.5 now sits at 48.5, as the trend of those overseas games being an 'over' bettor's haven continues to have some validity after the Raiders and Bears sailed 'over' their number on Sunday.

But there is film on these two teams already, and most of it wasn't pretty. Granted, Carolina won't be having Cam Newton under center this time around, and the players definitely want to put on a show for their overseas fans, but if this number continues to climb, all of that can still happen and the 'under' can still cash. Like the Ravens ATS early support, this quick move does have some signs of simply being one that's trying to stay ahead of the masses, so keep your eye out for that as the week goes on.

As far as the other possible 'unders' go in divisional games in Week 6, if you are of the mindset of the Ravens being in a potential flat spot because of level of opponent, fatigue, or otherwise, there is a case to look low on that total as well. Three straight divisional 'overs' would be quite the new feat for this Ravens franchise, and if the Bengals are going to hang around and either win SU and/or ATS, chances are with the limited offensive weapons they've got, it's not going to be a high-scoring game. But like Carolina/Tampa, this Bengals/Ravens game has already seen the total get bumped as well.

With the 49ers/Rams game still in limbo as Week 5 finishes, the Detroit/Packers game has also seen an early bump in the total too. Green Bay has started to find things offensively while taking a predictable step back defensively these past two weeks, and the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

That initial move does make a lot of sense for sure, but depending how high that total gets a week from now, this division 'under' trend is worth monitoring.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 09:03 AM

NFL Betting Stats through Week 5:

Road Teams: 48-29-1 ATS
Home Teams: 29-48-1 ATS

Favorites: 31-46-1 ATS
Underdogs: 46-31-1 ATS

Home Faves: 17-34-1 ATS
Home Dogs: 12-14 ATS

Road Faves: 14-12 ATS
Road Dogs: 34-17-1 ATS

O/U: 36-4

Thursday 10-10-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 10-10-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment