Saturday 10-12-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Stakes - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 86

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, COVERED BRIDGES S. - GRADE 3 FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. NO NOMINATION FEE. $100.00 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX WITH AN ADDITIONAL $250.00 TO START. $25,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH 57% TO THE WINNER, 17% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH, 3% TO FIFTH, AND 2% TO THE SIXTH THROUGH EIGHTH FINISHERS. IF LESS THAN 8 STARTERS, REFER TO PAY-OUT SCHEDULE IN THE CONDITION BOOK

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BOUT TREE FIDDY 5/1
# 1 THE LOUISIANA DREAM 7/2
# 2 GOING TO HOLLYWOOD 9/2

BOUT TREE FIDDY is the most favorable bet in this race. He has to be carefully examined given the competitive speed figures. He looks solid in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. If you gander closely, this one has some longshot possibilities. THE LOUISIANA DREAM - Looks formidable to be on the lead at the first call. With a respectable 86 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. GOING TO HOLLYWOOD - Must be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. Is worth careful consideration and may be a wager - strong Speed Figures (76 average) at today's distance and surface lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #9 - Post: 4:45pm - Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $51,000 Class Rating: 109

Rating:

#9 NORTH COUNTY GUY (ML=6/1)
#3 WOUND TIGHT (ML=6/1)
#8 MOODY JIM (IRE) (ML=5/2)
#4 VIA EGNATIA (ML=4/1)


NORTH COUNTY GUY - You have to like that latest race speed rating, 109, which is the best last race speed fig of this field. The morning line odds on this gelding are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Baltas. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. This one has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 91 to 100 to 109 in a row. WOUND TIGHT - This gelding recorded a nice speed figure of 109 in his last clash. That rating should be strong enough to win in today's event. 88-107-109 are last 3 Equibase speed figs. Improving each time out is something he should do again today. MOODY JIM (IRE) - Running 1 mile on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This thoroughbred has the tops in the bunch. VIA EGNATIA - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be favorable. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class figure in the group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 NOLO CONTESTO (ML=5/1), #10 M TOWN GEM (ML=8/1),

NOLO CONTESTO - This less than sharp equine didn't do much last time out finishing seventh. Don't see any hint of improvement in today's race. M TOWN GEM - Pedestrian speed rating in the last race at Del Mar at 1 mile. Don't feel this entrant will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WOUND TIGHT - This gelding posted a strong final quarter in his last race. This should be your leading shot in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #9 NORTH COUNTY GUY to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

10/12/19, BEL, Race 5, 2.59 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.00 CLAIMING. Purse $55,000.
Claiming Price $32,000 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (1. (UP TO $9,570 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Empire 6 (.20) Races (5-10), Double
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	4	The Sicarii	8-1	Alvarado J	Englehart Jeremiah C.	TW
099.4042	1A	Booby Trap	5/2	Cancel E	Avila A. C.
099.1647	1	Seanow	5/2	Lezcano J	Rice Linda	FEL
098.4170	7	Brush Country	3-1	Rosario J	Morley Thomas	J
097.5727	2	Thesis	4-1	Carmouche K	Duggan David P.	S
096.9203	6	Carrier Landing	6-1	Franco M	Nevin Michelle	C
096.3909	5	Ari's Naughty Luca	6-1	Davis D	Quick Patrick J.
096.1812	3	Mandatory Payout	6-1	Bravo J	Ryerson James T.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to BEL.

4	10.10	1.63	25.00	2	8	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
1A	10.10	1.63	25.00	2	8	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
1	19.70	1.08	45.60	57	125	[All Dirt] Best Finish
7	10.10	1.63	25.00	2	8	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
2	9.10	1.14	40.63	13	32	[All Dirt] Race Age 3
6	10.10	1.63	25.00	2	8	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
5	10.10	1.63	25.00	2	8	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
3	10.10	1.63	25.00	2	8	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #8 - Post: 4:33pm - Maiden Optional Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#1 BROZILIAN (BRZ) (ML=5/1)
#10 LUCKY LUKIE (GB) (ML=7/2)


BROZILIAN (BRZ) - This gelding finished well ahead of the third horse on Sep 14th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. Have to give this gelding a chance. Ran a good outing last time around the track within the last 30 days. LUCKY LUKIE (GB) - Horses out of the barn of Diodoro have been solid on the turf. Should perform well in this race. When Diodoro gives Lopez a leg up on any noble animal, you sense that with their winning percentage you have decidedly more than a fighting chance. Diodoro has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to beware of the longer priced half.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ROCKNROLL ROCKET (ML=8/5), #5 ELUSIVE FLAME (ML=4/1), #4 ALL IN STEW OUI (ML=9/2),

ROCKNROLL ROCKET - I cannot play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment done occasionally. This entrant ran a common speed figure last out. He shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's race running that figure. ELUSIVE FLAME - This colt hasn't been showing me anything in the last two races. ALL IN STEW OUI - Not the proper 'spot' in this race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LUCKY LUKIE (GB) - The race on March 10th had a class rating of 90 while today's class rating is 83. I got to bet this one on such a big drop.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 BROZILIAN (BRZ) to win if you can get at least 2/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

10/12/19, KEE, Race 5, 3.18 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.21.02 CLAIMING. Purse $27,000.
Claiming Price $30,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)-Pick - 6-Super High Five ($1 min)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	10	Copper Fiddle	6-1	Geroux F	Catalano Wayne M.	F
099.2797	2	Candy Store(b+)	3-1	Ortiz J L	Motion H. Graham	C
098.8173	6	Debating	7/2	Lanerie C J	Kenneally Eddie	TSE
098.2356	8	Pawnbroker	8-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Maker Michael J.	J
097.6530	3	Square the Circle	15-1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Holthus Paul E.	W
097.2641	4	Box of Chocolates	10-1	Graham J	Hiles Rick
097.0277	5	Military Hop	12-1	Canchari A L	Williamson Brian
096.9918	12	Firery Tale	15-1	Mena M	West Ethan W.
096.6424	1	Delinquent	6-1	Cannon D	Kobiskie Dane
096.4245	11	Getyourmindright	12-1	Hill C	Lyster Stephen S.	L
094.0222	7	Wild About Candy	20-1	Santana. Jr. R	Barkley Jason
091.3955	9	Sterling Hope	20-1	Beschizza A	Ennis John

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to KEE.

10	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
2	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
6	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
8	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
3	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
4	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
5	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
12	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
1	84.40	2.41	16.67	5	30	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Actual Post Not Greater Than 9 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
11	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
7	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f
9	95.60	7.83	28.57	2	7	[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] *Not Actual Post 1 And Distance 7f or 7 1/2f

* Dynamic condition may change before the race. Confirm before using stats for top rated horse.