Sunday 10-20-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

451ARIZONA -452 NY GIANTS
ARIZONA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

453HOUSTON -454 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 21-8 ATS (12.2 Units) in home games after a road upset win since 1992.

455MIAMI -456 BUFFALO
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

457MINNESOTA -458 DETROIT
MINNESOTA is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) in dome games in the last 3 seasons.

459OAKLAND -460 GREEN BAY
OAKLAND is 28-61 ATS (-39.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.

461JACKSONVILLE -462 CINCINNATI
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9 Units) after the first month of the season in the last 2 seasons.

463LA RAMS -464 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

465SAN FRANCISCO -466 WASHINGTON
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-25 ATS (-17.5 Units) in road games after allowing 9 points or less last game since 1992.

467LA CHARGERS -468 TENNESSEE
LA CHARGERS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

469BALTIMORE -470 SEATTLE
BALTIMORE is 49-28 ATS (18.2 Units) in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

471NEW ORLEANS -472 CHICAGO
NEW ORLEANS are 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 2 seasons.

473PHILADELPHIA -474 DALLAS
DALLAS are 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. division opponents in the last 3 seasons.

475NEW ENGLAND -476 NY JETS
NY JETS are 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 7

Cardinals (2-3-1) @ Giants (2-4)— Giants’ DC Bettcher faces his old team (2015-17) here; Giants lost their last two games by 18-21 points- they scored 17 or fewer points in all four losses, are 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as a home favorite, 1-0 TY. Arizona won its last two games by total of four points after an 0-3-1 start; Cardinals converted 13 of last 26 third down plays, but have only one takeaway in their last five games (-2). Arizona is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog, 2-0 TY. Home side lost four of last five series games, with Arizona winning 24-17/25-14 in last two visits here. NFC West teams are 8-0 ATS in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 4-12 ATS outside their division.

Texans (4-2) @ Colts (3-2)— Houston scored 84 points in winning its last two games, racking up 66 first downs, running ball for 358 yards; four of their last five games stayed under the total. Texans covered six of last seven games as a road underdog (3-0 TY). Colts are 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 post-bye games; they’re 3-2 SU this year, allowing 30-31 points in their losses- the team that led at halftime won all five Indy games. Colts are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year; they’re 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Indy won four of last five series games; Texans won three of last four visits to Indy. Divisional home favorites are 5-13 ATS in NFL games this year.

Dolphins (0-5) @ Bills (4-1)— Fitzpatrick gets nod at QB here after rallying Miami back from down 17-3 to almost beat the Redskins LW; Dolphins are 0-5 SU, losing their only road game 31-6 in Dallas. Miami hasn’t gained more than 283 TY in any game this year; they’re 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog. Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in last four post-bye games; under McDermott, they’re 5-3-1 ATS as a home favorite. Bills are 4-1 with only one win by more than 7 points; they allowed 17 or fewer points in all four wins- all five of their games stayed under total. Buffalo won eight of last 12 series games; four of last six were decided by 6 or fewer points. Dolphins lost five of last six visits here, with the one win in OT three years ago.

Vikings (4-2) @ Lions (2-2-1)— Minnesota scored 28+ points in its four wins, was held to 16-6 in its losses; they gained 490-447 TY the last two weeks. Vikings covered once in last five games where spread was 3 or fewer points- under Zimmer, they’re 11-6 ATS as a road favorite. Detroit is 2-2-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio; kicking five FG’s with only one TD cost them at Lambeau Monday nite; all five of their games were decided by 4 or fewer points. Lions are 7-14-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home underdog, but are 2-0 this year; they’re 5-3 in last eight games with spread of 3 or fewer points. Minnesota won last three series games, sweeping Lions 24-9/27-9 in LY’s games; Vikings won three of last four visits to Ford Field, winning last two, 30-23/27-9.

Raiders (3-2) @ Packers (5-1)— Short week for Green Bay after they snuck past Detroit Monday; Packers allowed 80 points in last three games after giving up 35 in first three- they’re 12-9-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite, 12-8-1 in last 21 games vs AFC teams. Oakland scored 55 points in winning its last two games; they were held to 10-14 points in their two losses. Raiders are 4-13-1 in last 18 games as a road dog, 1-1 TY- they’re 4-12-2 in last 18 games vs NFC foes. Green Bay won last seven meetings; Raiders lost last four trips to Lambeau, last three by 28+. NFC North home favorites are 4-1 ATS outside their division; AFC West teams are 7-10 ATS, 1-2 as road underdogs. Oakland is 5-11 ATS in last 16 post-bye games.

Jaguars (2-4) @ Bengals (0-6)— Jaguars trading Ramsey shouldn’t hurt them; he wasn’t playing anyway. QB Minshew had his worst game as a pro LW; Jags gained only 226 TY vs Saints, after racking up 455-507 TY the two games before that- they’re 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a favorite. Winless Bengals gave up 535 RY the last two weeks; they’ll get more of same here from Jax- three of their last four games stayed under. Four of Cincy’s six losses were by 6 or fewer points- they’re 7-3 ATS in last ten games asa a home underdog. Bengals won four of last five series games; Jaguars lost 21-19/33-23 in last two visits here. AFC South favorites are 2-3 ATS outside the division; AFC North teams are 6-9 ATS, 0-7 at home.

Rams (3-3) @ Falcons (1-5)— Rams return to scene of February’s Super Bowl loss; LA lost last three games overall, added CB Fowler Tuesday while trading Peters- only one of four DB’s who started in Week 4 is still an active Ram. LA gained 157 TY LW, after racking up 518-477 in previous two games. Atlanta lost its last four games, so lot of urgency on both sides here- they allowed 765 PY the last two weeks. Falcons scored 65 points last two weeks, but still lost both games. Atlanta won last five series games, with last meeting 26-13 in ’17 playoffs; Rams lost last five visits here, with last win in ’01. NFC West teams are 8-0 ATS in non-divisional road games; NFC South home teams are 3-5 ATS outside their division.

49ers (5-0) @ Redskins (1-5)— Washington fired Mike/Kyle Shanahan after the 2013 season; am guessing they’ll pay for that today, with red-hot 49ers in town. SF allowed total of 10 points in last two games, giving up one offensive TD on 22 drives; Bengals are only team to gain 300+ TY vs SF, and they lost 41-17 to the Niners. Redskins won Callahan’s first game as interim coach LW but it was 17-16 over a horrible Miami team; Washington ran ball 33 times LW, after running it for average of 17.6 in their first five games. 49ers won four of last five series games, splitting last four visits here; NFC West teams are 8-0 ATS in non-divisional road games; NFC East teams are 4-12 ATS outside their division.

Chargers (2-4) @ Titans (2-4)— Tennessee is starting Taneyhill (42-46 as starter in Miami) at QB after getting blanked 16-0 in Denver; Titans lost four of last five games, scoring one TD on their last 25 drives- under Vrabel, they’re 1-4 ATS as home favorites, losing their two home games 19-17/14-7 TY. Chargers fell behind 14-0 after 10:25 LW, 14-0 after 9:49 the week before; LA ran the ball for only 54.8 ypg the last four weeks— will they feed Gordon the ball more here? Last five Tennessee games stayed under the total. Chargers won 11 of last 12 series games, winning three of four trips to Nashville; Bolts beat Tennessee 20-19 in London LY. AFC West teams are 7-10 ATS outside the division; AFC South home teams are 2-5 ATS.

Ravens (4-2) @ Seahawks (5-1)— Jackson is 10-3 as an NFL starter. Ravens are 0-5 ATS in last five games- their last three wins are by 6 or fewer points. Baltimore is 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog; they allowed 33-40 points in their two losses, an average of 16.8 in their wins; they allowed 37.8 RY/game in wins, 166.5 in losses- can Seattle run ball here? Seahawks are 5-1 with four wins by four or fewer points; they’re 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, with home wins this year, by 1-1 points and a loss to the Bridgewater-led Saints. Home side won four of last five series games; Ravens lost 27-6/22-17 in last two visits here. AFC North road underdogs are 4-2 ATS outside the division; NFC West home favorites are 1-5.

Saints (5-1) @ Bears (3-2)— Trubisky is back under center for Chicago after Bears got whacked in London, with Daniel at QB; Chicago allowed 14-15-6 points in its three wins- they’ve run ball for only 68 ypg in their last three games. Under Nagy, Bears are 6-1 ATS laying points at home. Chicago is 4-12-1 ATS in last 17 post-bye games, 0-5 in last five. New Orleans is 4-0 with Bridgwater at QB, giving up only 71.1 rushing ypg the last three games; they held last three foes under 260 TY. Saints are 5-1 SU, with all five wins by 7 or fewer points; they’re 16-8-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road dog, 2-1 TY. Saints won last four series games, all by 8+ points; Chicago’s last series win was in ’08. NO won its last two trips to the Windy City.

Eagles (3-3) @ Cowboys (2-3)— Cowboys lost last three games (outscored 47-9 in first half) after a 3-0 start; Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight pre-bye games- they scored only 26 points in last seven red zone drives. Cowboys are 11-8-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite; they scored 31+ points in their wins, 18.7 ppg in their losses. Philly allowed 24+ points in five of six game; only team they held under 24 started their #3 QB, who they later cut; Eagles allowed 310+ PY in four of six games- Cousins averaged 10.8 yards/pass attempt against them LW. Under Pederson, Iggles are 7-8 ATS as road underdogs. Dallas won last three series games, by 6-7-6 points; Eagles won four of last six visits here, losing 29-23 in OT LY.

Patriots (6-0) @ Jets (1-4)— Darnold came back from his bout with mono and revitalized the Jets LW, throwing for 326 yards vs Dallas after they averaged 113.5 PY in first four games. Gang Green is still averaging only 64 rushing ypg. Jets are 17-9-1 ATS in last 27 games as a home underdog. New England won 14 of last 16 series games, winning six of last eight visits here; Patriots have allowed only 8 ppg this year; their TO margin is +9- they scored five TD’s already on defense/special teams. Only one of NE’s six wins was by fewer than 16 points. Patriots are 16-10 ATS in last 26 games as road favorites; they held four of last five opponents to 220 or fewer TY. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 4-3 ATS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JIMMY BOYD
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Eagles vs. Cowboys

1* Free NFL Pick on Philadelphia Eagles +3

I don't think the Cowboys struggles are going to subside when they host the Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Dallas has lost 3 straight after starting the season 3-0 and are fresh off a loss at the Jets as a 7-point favorite.

Sometimes scheduling can play tricks on ya. People couldn't get enough of Dallas to start the year, but their 3-0 start was against the Dolphins, Redskins and Giants. The offense has really struggled to get going against better teams and I think they are in for a long day against this Eagles defensive front. Philadelphia is No. 2 in the NFL against the run, allowing just 72.8 ypg.

I also love backing the Eagles off that embarrassing 38-20 loss at Minnesota. They are 7-3 ATS last 10 off a SU loss of more than 14 points. Cowboys are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 at home off an upset loss as a favorite and are just 5-14 ATS under Jason Garrett as a home favorite of 3 or less. Take Philadelphia!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
49ers vs. Redskins
Redskins+10½ -120

NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Since 1989, teams that have scored fewer than 18 points in 4 or more straight games and are averaging less that or equal to 16 ppg on the season are a surprising 189-137-10 ATS (58.0%). That is 94-52-4 ATS (64.4%) if they're a 3 to 10 point underdog. -- Active in Week 8 on the Redskins
The Cardinals are 0-14 ATS (-12.50 ppg) as a dog off a game as a dog when they are facing a team that is off two seven-plus point losses.The Raiders are 0-13 ATS (-13.31 ppg) as a TD-plus dog off a win.The Colts are 12-0 ATS (+6.29 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.The Giants are 0-11 ATS (-14.95 ppg) when the line is within three points of pick on turf after a loss as a road dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

Oakland at Green Bay 1:00 ET

Raiders (+) over Packers

The 5-1 Packers and Aaron Rogers did it again last week winning in impossible fashion. Once again officials calls were a huge factor with the Packers getting more than just 'breaks' on calls leading to their comeback 23-22 win over the Lions. Oakland at 3-2 in much improved as they have a respectable running game with rookie Josh Jacobs who has eight touchdowns on the ground. The Packers have won eight straight in this series but Oakland has had extra rest while Green Bay has had to work on a short week. Take the RAIDERS!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MARC LAWRENCE
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Texans vs. Colts
Texans+1

Play - Houston Texans (Game 453).

Edges - Texans: QB Deshaun Watson 9-2-1 ATS as a dog, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six games, and 6-1 ATS in 4th away game of the season in division games … Colts: 6-14 ATS as home favorites of 3 or less points versus avenging foes. With the Texans looking to avenge a home playoff loss suffered against the Colts last season, we recommend a 1* play on Houston. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WILL ROGERS
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Cowboys-2½ -125

The set-up: Philadelphia is 3-3 and off a 38-20 road loss at Minnesota. The Cowboys are 3-3 as well and they're off a terrible road loss to the Jets, falling 24-22. The Eagles defense looked particularly horrible last weekend though, allowing three TD passes to Kick Cousins and I think that Dak Prescott is going to bounce back here and take advantage at home. Philadelphia stand out DeSean Jackson has an abdomen issue and is listed as questionable for this one as well.

The pick: Despite the disappointing result last weekend, Prescott still finished with 277 passing yards and RB Ezekiel Elliot still finished with 105 rushing yards. Note as well that Philadelphia is a poor 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a road loss (including 0-1 ATS this year), while the Cowboys are still 7-3 ATS in their last ten as a home favorite.

1* FREE PICK on the Dallas Cowboys.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK JONES
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Eagles vs. Cowboys

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 49

Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles are highly motivated for a win here Sunday night in the NFC East rivalry. The Eagles are coming off a bad loss at Minnesota, while the Cowboys are coming off three straight upset losses. This game will be played close to the vest, and I think points will be hard to come by in this divisional showdown.

The Cowboys have injuries on offense that have slowed them down on that side of the ball. Both starting tackles in Tyron Smith and La’el Collins have been out with injuries and are questionable to return this week. Randall Cobb is battling multiple injuries, and star receiver Amari Cooper left last week’s games against the Jets with a quad injury. Both are questionable to play this week.

The Eagles get some good news on the injury front defensively as they are expected to get a couple cornerbacks back from injury. Their secondary has been their weakness, but they should have it more fortified this week with the return of those two players. But the offense has some injury issues too with LT Jason Peters, WR DeSean Jackson and RB Darren Sproles are questionable this week.

The Cowboys are a team that like to establish the run, but they haven’t been doing that in recent weeks. Look for them to try and get back to that this week because letting Dak Prescott throw the ball 44 times against Green Bay and 40 times against the Jets did not work. But the Eagles have the second-best run defense in the NFL, giving up just 72.8 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.

Based on the series history, this total has been set too high. The Eagles and Cowboys have combined for 47 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last six meetings. They have averaged just 38.5 combined points per game at the end of regulation in those six games, which is 10.5 points less than this posted total of 49. There is some serious value on this UNDER Sunday night.

Philadelphia is 8-1 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons. The Eagles are 7-0 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Vikings vs. Lions

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Vikings/Lions UNDER 44

This has clearly been an UNDER series between the Vikings and Lions and that should continue in their first meeting of 2019. The UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and all nine games that went under saw 42 or fewer combined points. We have a total here of 44 and there is clearly value with the UNDER given the series history. The UNDER is 6-0 in Vikings last six road games. The UNDER is 24-7 in Vikings last 31 against NFC North teams. The UNDER is 4-0 in Lions last four against NFC North teams. The UNDER is 6-1 in Lions last seven home games. The Vikings are 9-1 UNDER in their last 10 after playing a game where 50 or more total points were scored. Give me the UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Dolphins vs. Bills

1* on Miami Dolphins +17

The Key: Just plug your nose and back the Miami Dolphins this week. They finally covered a spread last week in their 16-17 loss to the Redskins. They benched Josh Rosen down 17-3, and Ryan Fitzpatrick nearly led the comeback as they just came up a 2-point conversion short of their first win. Now they are going with Fitzpatrick this week, and this team is clearly much better with him as their starter. He has been one of the best backup QB’s in the league for years and had some great success in Tampa Bay last year. The Bills just don’t have a good enough offense to be laying 17 points to anyone. They are scoring just 18 PPG this year. This is expected to be a low scoring game with a total of just 40.5 points, so getting 17 points with a dog in an expected low scoring game is a nice price. Bets on road dogs who are winless on the season off a home cover where they lost outright as an underdog are 25-6 ATS since 1983. We’ll go contrarian here and back the winless team. Take Miami.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (459) Oakland Raiders at (460) Green Bay Packers
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 20, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Oakland Raiders 4.5 (-110)

3% Take Oakland (#459)

This is the mother of all bad spots for Green Bay. They’re on a short week off a hard fought divisional win on Monday Night Football; a game that came down to the final play. That’s on the heels of huge games against the Cowboys and Eagles in their previous two contests. Up next? A trip to KC to battle the Chiefs. In between is this game against the Raiders, a true sandwich spot. Im not expecting the Packers to bring their ‘A’ game here.

And make no mistake about it – Green Bay’s lack of healthy skill position talent is likely to continue to give them problems covering pointspreads as favorites. Davante Adams has been downgraded to ‘out’ while Marquez Valdez Scantling is questionable at best; leaving Aaron Rodgers without his primary big play weapons. For an offense that has lacked explosiveness even when these guys are healthy, these WR injuries are particularly meaningful.

The Raiders are rested and ready off their bye; negating much of the ‘West Coast team flying east for an early start game’ concerns. We’ve seen Oakland dominate the line of scrimmage in each of their last two ballgames; controlling the trenches against the Bears and Colts; pulling off a pair of outright upsets in the process. Even through LT Trent Brown isn’t expected to be in the lineup this week, that Raiders front five is a ‘bet-on’ unit here. Expect a battle, not a blowout. Take the Raiders!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAY MONOHAN
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Saints vs. Bears
Bears-4

This Sunday at 4:25 p.m. the (5-1) New Orleans Saints will take on the Chicago Bears (3-2) at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears are currently 4 point favorites in the game with the total sitting at 38.

The New Orleans Saints have now won four in a row after a 13-6 win on the road in Jacksonville last week. Teddy Bridgewater completed 24 of 36 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown. Michael Thomas was his leading target in the game with 89 yards on eight receptions.The Saints had 104 rushing yards as a team, led by Latavius Murray with 44 yards on eight carries. The Saints were stingy in the game on the defensive side of the ball. They held the Jaguars to just 226 total yards with only 75 of them coming on the ground. Teddy Bridgewater has yet to lose a game as a starter this season. He has tossed the ball for 1,089 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions. It’s safe to say the Chicago Defense will be his biggest test so far while filling in for Drew Brees.

Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is listed as questionable, but expected to be the starter this week against the Saints. Trubisky was injured against the Vikings on September 29 and Chase Daniels has been under center ever since. I’m not taking the Bears minus 4 points because the starting QB is back, let's just say that, but it helps that Allen Robinson is playing like an elite WR again. He caught seven passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' 24-21 loss to the Raiders on Sunday and has been targeted at least 7x in every game this year, I don't think the Saints secondary matches up well with him. Also, Chicago has one of, if not the meanest defenses in the NFL this season and they are completely aware of the opportunity to win against the Saints without Drew Brees in the game.

At 3-2, the Bears still are in the running to win the NFC North. They still have two games against Detroit this season and another matchup with both Green Bay and Minnesota. A win against New Orleans during the season will have value in the playoffs.

I don’t think Bridgewater is ready for what’s getting ready to happen to him. He still has some legs and is able to scramble, but I think the pressure will get to him. One more prediction, Murray and Michael Thomas will need to do the heavy lifting on offense with Kamara joined by Jared Cook (ankle) and Tre'Quan Smith (ankle) on the inactive list. I see Chicago with a score on defense helping them cover the points.

Some trends to consider. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS last 5 after giving up less than 90 rushing yards previous game. Chicago is 11-5 ATS previous 16 games. Chicago is 4-1 ATS previous five games vs. NFC South, and are 8-0 ATS previous eight games at home vs. team with a winning record.

Back the Bears -4.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Rams vs. Falcons

10* FREE NFL PICK (Falcons +3)

I'll take my chances here with Atlanta as a home dog against the Rams. LA has lost 3 straight and two of those have come as home favorites. You would think the public would want nothing to do with this team, but they can't help themselves with the Rams only laying a field goal against a Falcons team that is 1-5. Atlanta is not as bad as their record and they are going to do whatever it takes to get a win here, as this feels like the make or break point of their season. This is just not the same Rams team as last year, especially on offense. They made headlines for the Ramsey trade, but they added him and lost corners Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, as well as safety John Johnson. I look for Ryan to have a field day in this one. Give me the Rams +3!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Jaguars-4

My free play is on the Jax Jaguars at 1:00 ET.

The 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars have opened the season going 0-2, 2-0 and 0-2. The Jaguars finally dealt top CB Jalen Ramsey to the Rams for three draft picks Tuesday, parting ways with a two-time Pro Bowl player who wanted out. With that drama behind them, the Jags are hoping to break their two-game slide this Sunday at Cincinnati. The 0-6 Bengals coming off a 23-17 setback at Baltimore last Sunday, the team's fourth game this season in which it lost by less than a TD.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, asJacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception.The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd). Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st). The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL).
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Raiders vs. Packers
Raiders+4½

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Oakland plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a tough spot for the injury-depleted Packers as they welcome the upstart Raiders to Lambeau Field. I don’t love the scheduling situation for Oakland as it travels across a couple of time zones to play an early start Sunday affair but that’s somewhat negated by the fact that it is coming off its bye week while the Packers play on a short week following a tightly-contested Monday night affair against a division rival. I’m higher on Raiders RB Josh Jacobs than most and believe this a potential breakout spot for him against a Packers defense that allows just shy of five yards per rush this season. Green Bay simply has too many injuries at the wide receiver position to garner much confidence in its offense at this point. QB Aaron Rodgers is playing well but continues to be let down by drops. The Packers ground game has been inconsistent at best, with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in a time share at this point. Williams looked explosive on Monday night but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance here. Take Oakland (8*).