Sunday 10-20-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, October 20, 2019

NFL (463) LOS ANGELES RAMS VS (464) ATLANTA FALCONS

Take: (464) ATLANTA FALCONS

Reason: Your free play for Sunday, October 20, 2019 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the LA Rams and the Atlanta Falcons. Your free play is on the FALCONS.

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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Oct 20, 2019
Ravens vs. Seahawks
Ravens+3

The Seattle Seahawks are 5-1 on the season, but all but a blowout win at Arizona were one-score games and one could certainly make an argument that they've had Lady Luck on their side in most contests.

The Ravens lead the NFL in total offense at 450.7 yards per game and they rank second in scoring with 30.7 points per game. Seattle just gave up 406 total yards to Cleveland and Baker Mayfield, so I have no doubt that Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens can move the ball quite freely against this Seahawks defense.

Ravens are 19-7-4 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Seahawks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

I feel the Ravens are undervalued at this point after failing to cover the spread in five straight games, and I like the visitors to keep it close and maybe even record an outright upset here at Seattle Sunday afternoon.

Free pick on Baltimore Ravens.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE CONNORS

If you are looking for points on this Sunday NFL card, it is wise NOT to look at the game being played in Nashville when the Chargers and the Titans do battle, as this game has the potential of being one of the lowest scoring games of the afternoon.



The Chargers were held without a touchdown until the start of the 4th quarter in their 24-17 home loss to the Steelers last Sunday night, as the Bolts have now scored 20 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games, and have held Under the posted total in all 5 of those games.



The Titans offense has been so bad they have now benched Marcus Mariota in favor of Ryan Tannehill, as Tennessee was just skunked in Denver, 16-0, and have been held to 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Not surprisingly, ALL 5 of those games have landed Under the total, as Mike Vrabel at least has a defense that has limited the opposition to 20 points or less in ALL 6 of their games played this year.



With both teams struggling to find the end-zone, the best bet here is to play Under this low total and look for both teams to see their streaks of 5 consecutive Unders make their way to 6 consecutive Unders in a row.




Chargers-Titans Low for Sunday.


3* L.A. CHARGERS-TENNESSEE UNDER

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BOB VALENTINO

Why am I taking the Eagles? Real simple, he guaranteed it!

The "he" I am referring to is Philly head coach Doug Pederson who pretty much guaranteed his team would win this game after the ugly loss the Eagles just absorbed at Minnesota last weekend. Hey, if Pederson "guarantees" it, that is good enough for me.

No, just joking, but I do indeed feel that Philadelphia does have 2 of the key advantages in this meeting, and the first is the coaching edge of Pederson over Jason Garrett. The second is at the quarterback spot where I believe Carson Wentz is hands-down better than Dak Prescott.

Both of these NFC East teams stand at 3-3, but for the Cowboys there mark shows them on a 3 game slide that just saw them lay a massive turd at the New York Jets last weekend (same Jets the Eagles whipped the week prior). The week before Dallas trailed Green Bay (same Green Bay team the Eagles beat on September 26th) 31-3 before eventually losing by 10 at home to the Packers.

Both of these NFC East teams have issues, as Philly's secondary can be exploited as we saw just last week by Kirk Cousins, but since Dallas' major concern is their injured offensive line which has kept Prescott on his back, and Elliott from running wild, I doubt that Dak is going to be able to do to much damage through the air. Also keep in mind that Amari Cooper left the loss to the Jets with a thigh injury and could well be compromised in this prime time spot.

Series numbers do show Dallas with 3 straight wins and covers over Philadelphia on their side. That streak does include a 29-23 home overtime win late in the season last year that swung the tide in Dallas taking the NFC East division crown.

DeSean Jackson is on track to come back to the lineup just in time for this critical contest, and with the edge of Pederson and Wentz over Garrett and Prescott, I will take any points they are giving and play the Eagles to stop the series losing streak at 3.

Fly Eagles, Fly!

2* PHILADELPHIA

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CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Falcons
Packers
Chargers
Bears
Eagles

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Tony Mejia

#457 Minnesota Vikings
#462 Cincinnati Bengals
#463 Los Angeles Rams

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Matt Zylbert
W.G.Ramirez

#453 Texans
#456 Bills
#461 Jags
#466 Redskins

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Gridiron Angles - Week 7
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Bengals are 11-0 ATS (5.95 ppg) since Dec 14, 2008 as a dog coming off a road game with less than 300 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-6.50 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 on the road coming off a loss when facing a team above .500 on the season.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Texans are 0-7-1 ATS (-5.94 ppg) since Oct 25, 2015 coming off a win where Deandre Hopkins had at least nine receptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Saints are 11-0 OU (17.27 ppg) since Dec 09, 2012 off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least seven points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-10 OU (-9.40 ppg) since Nov 12, 2017 in the first 16 weeks of the season playing a team over .500.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Colts are 13-0 ATS (+5.88 ppg) at home after a game as a road dog in which they converted at least five third downs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 7
Joe Williams

We're heading to Sunday Week 7 of the National Football League regular season. Primetime games have been a bummer for 'over' bettors so far this season. The Thursday Night Football game between the Kansas City Chiefs-Denver Broncos went well under to kick off the new week, too. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down with a dislocated kneecap and he is supposed to miss several weeks, so keep an eye on the totals of Kansas City games going forward. With veteran backup QB Matt Moore under center, the Chiefs offense won't be nearly as effective.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 6 7-7 8-6 3-9-2
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 43-49 39-52-1 42-46-4

The books were well in the black for a third consecutive week even though the totals were split right down the middle at 7-7. The Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game in England hit the over, which is now 2-0 in the two International Series games this season. We'll get a week break from games in Jolly Ol' England before the Cincinnati Bengals-Los Angeles Rams meet in Wembley Stadium.

Bettors looking for points in the second-half in Week 7 were stifled as the under went 9-3-2 in the final 30 minutes. Simiar to the overall under (49-43) results on the season, the under holds advantages in both the first-half (52-39-1) and second-half (46-42-4).

Division Bell

We had four more divisional battles in Week 6, and all three of the divisional battles on North American soil hit the 'under', with the only over happening at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between the Bucs and Panthers in the 26th game played in London since 2007. If you include Thursday's outcome between the Chiefs and Broncos, the under is now 20-10 (67%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 6
Carolins vs. Tampa Bay (London) Over (47.5) Carolina 37, Tampa Bay 26
Cincinnati at Baltimore Under (47) Baltimore 23, Cincinnati 17
San Francisco at L.A. Rams Under (50) San Francisco 20, L.A. Rams 7
Detroit at Green Bay (MNF) Under (47) Green Bay 23, Detroit 22

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 7 as of Saturday morning.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: 47 ½ to 43 ½
San Francisco at Washington: 43 to 40
L.A. Rams at Atlanta: 52 ½ to 54 ½
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 ½ to 49 ½
Baltimore at Seattle: 50 ½ to 49
New Orleans at Chicago: 38 ½ to 37

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 7 per the betting trend percentages as of Saturday morning.

San Francisco at Washington: Under 92%
L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: Over 89%
New England at N.Y. Jets (MNF): Over 87%
Philadelphia at Dallas (SNF): Over 86%
Arizona at N.Y. Giants: Over 83%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'under' (70 percent) in the Cincinnati-Baltimore matchup, and heavy lean on the 'over' in L.A. Rams-Atlanta (67 percent) battle on Sunday.

Handicapping Week 7

Week 6 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 1-3 10-19
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 11-8
AFC vs. AFC 1-2 9-6
AFC vs. NFC 3-2 14-15

Other Week 7 Action

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: This game is an interesting one to watch, as the winless Bengals have a slew of injuries in their secondary, including DBs William Jackson III (shoulder) and Dre Kirkpatrick (knee). They might get CB Darqueze Dennard (knee) back from the PUP list, but they still have issues. The Bengals have actually been middle of the road against the pass, but brutal against the run, ranking last in the NFL at 184.5 yards per game. They're allowing 426.0 total yards per game to rank 31st, too. On the flip side, the rank 11th running the ball with 127.5 yards per game. Jacksonville's offense might be able to put up some big points. They have allowed 58 points in their past two road games, both overs, so this is an interesting game to watch.

L.A. Rams at Atlanta: Former NFC West Division rivals meet in Atlanta when the Rams swoop into town to battle the Falcons. The Rams are expected to see CB Jalen Ramsey make his team debut after being acquired this week. He'll be a welcome addition with CB Aqib Talib (ribs) out indefinitely. The Rams rank sixth in the NFL in passing yards (272.5), and the Falcons are 27th in total yards allowed (388.8) and passing yards allowed (271.2), while allowing 31.0 PPG to check in 31st in the NFL. This could be another track meet under the roof.

Oakland at Green Bay: The Raiders hit the road to ball the Packers in an AFC-NFC matchup. The Raiders have hit the 'over' in all three of their games away from the Bay Area, going 2-0 in their two true road games with another over in London in Week 5 last time out. For the Packers, they'll again be without WR Davante Adams (toe), while WRs Geronimo Allison (chest) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (ankle) are considered doubtful. The Pack are likely to have quite a few unheralded and inexperienced receivers going, which might mean more of a ground-based attack. A heavy run game means a better chance of an under.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants: The Cardinals and Giants have a line hovering around 50 for their battle between former NFC East rivals. It could be a high-scoring affair, as the Giants get a huge boost from the return of RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) and TE Evan Engram (knee). As such, the Giants offense could be fairly prolific, especially against a Cardinals defense which ranks 30th in total yards allowed (414.0), 30th in passing yards allowed (281.2) and 26th in rushing yards allowed (132.8). Arizona has scored 22.3 PPG, while allowing 28.5 PPG. Teams from the Pacific Time Zone playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season have posted an over in six of 11 occasions, and the over is 6-3 if you take the Chargers out of the equation (two unders in two games).

L.A. Chargers at Tennessee: A pair of defensive-minded clubs battle in Nashville. The Chargers and Titans have each hit the under in five straight games. Los Angeles ranks seventh in total yards allowed (321.7) and 10th in points allowed (19.7 PPG), while Tennessee ranks eighth in total yards allowed (321.8), sixth in passing yards allowed (217.3) and fifth in points allowed (15.3 PPG). However, they're a very ordinary 15th in rushing yards allowed (104.5). Watch this, as RB Melvin Gordon rushed for a career-high 196 yards against Tennessee in a 2016 meeting. The Titans will give QB Ryan Tannehill his first Tennessee start, as he replaced the ineffective QB Marcus Mariota.

Heavy Expectations

There are three games listed with spreads of nine or more points for Week 7, with one home team listed as a double-digit favorite. The totals are ranging from 41 to 44 in these contests and cashing a total could come down to which teams lay off the gas in the second-half. Two of the games are divisional battles, too.

San Francisco at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET): The 49ers will be playing in their third game in the Eastern Time Zone, splitting the over/under in those games. They scored 31 points in the Week 1 game at Tampa Bay, and 41 in the Week 2 game at Cincinnati, and now they'll face a one-win Redskins side. On the flip side, the Redskins have allowed 31, 31 and 33 in their three home games, hitting the 'over' in two of those outings. As an underdog of nine or more points, the Redskins are allowing 32.5 PPG in two outings, too. One thing to note, however, is that the 49ers have hit the 'under' in each of the two games they have been favored, while hitting the under in four of their five games overall.

Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. ET): The Dolphins will play in just their second road game of the season, and they hit the 'under' in that lone road trip, falling 31-6 at Dallas in Week 3. The Dolphins scored a season-high 16 points in Week 6, hitting the 'under' for the fourth consecutive game. They have scored 10, 0, 6, 10 and 16 in five games, averaging an NFL-worst 8.4 PPG. The Dolphins turn back to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, looking for a little 'Fitz-magic' against his former team. The Bills are the only team in the NFL yet to see an 'over' result, as the 'under' is a perfect 5-0, including 2-0 vs. AFC East foes. They allowed just 16 points in each of those divisional games.

New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): (See Below)

Under the Lights

Philadelphia at Dallas (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Sunday Night Football under has cashed in all seven games so far this season, including Philly's trip to Atlanta in Week 2, and a 12-10 loss by Dallas in New Orleans in Week 4. The Cowboys have played two divisional games, cashing the 'over' in each. They are averaging 33.0 PPG in those two games, while allowing 19.0 PPG. The Eagles hit the 'over' in their only NFC East tilt so far, a 32-27 win over Washington in Week 1. In their three road games the Eagles have scored 20 or more points in each game while allowing 29.7 PPG, hitting the 'over' in two of the three games.

New England at N.Y. Jets (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Patriots are heavy favorites on the road for the Monday nighter against the Jets, who looked like a new program in a Week 6 win over Dallas with QB Sam Darnold back under center after missing a few games due to a bout with mononucleosis. These teams met in Week 3 when Luke Falk was the starting QB, and the Jets offense was blanked in New England, with the Jets scoring two defensive touchdowns in the 30-14 loss, a game which went 'over' by one point, and probably should not have. The 'under' is 8-2 in the past 10 against AFC East teams, while the under is 11-5 in New York's past 16 inside the division. The under has hit in six of the past seven in this series, and four of the past five in New Jersey.

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CHRIS JORDAN

My free play for Sunday is on the Washington Redskins plus the points against the San Francisco 49ers, as I think this one will be much closer than people anticipate.

The 49ers are riding high, and playing some of the best football in the league right now. Yes, even as good as the New England Patsies. So why would they take the Redskins serious?

Why take a team that barely escaped the haples Miami Dolphins serious?

The 49ers should annihilate Washington, right?

Then why is the line only -10? It should be -16, at least.

But San Francisco is traveling across the country, and playing in a chillier climate, and playing against a team that just won its first game - I don't care who it was against - and oh by the way, there's a lookahead factor with the Carolina Panthers on deck.

I'm not thinking the Redskins will turn their season around now that Jay Gruden has been fired. But I am thinking the players will have an entirely different mindset, one with confidence and one that believes they can hang with any other team in the league.

Washington just needs to hang around, and then use the homefield to its advantage.

This one is from a mental standpoint, as the Redskins keep it close, and catch the Niners sleeping.

2* REDSKINS

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PURE LOCK

Pure Lock's FREE NFL play Sunday 10-20-19

Green Bay -4 1/2 -115

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BEN BURNS
NHL | Oct 20, 2019
Canucks vs. Rangers
Rangers-127

Yesterday, I successfully played against the Canucks. They were playing an early game, at NJ. Here's what I had to say: "The Canucks have been on a nice roll. Playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone and in potential "letdown mode" off a win over the defending champs, I expect their winning streak to come to an end here. Even off the win over the Blues, the Canucks are still just 3-8 the past 2+ seasons, after winning their previous three or more games. During that span, they're also 20-34 (-9.4) after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. The Devils got the monkey off their back with their first win last time out. They handled the Canucks last season incl. a 4-0 win here. Expect them to take care of business once again."

Today, the Canucks are playing another early game. This time, they're at MSG, taking on the Rangers. Longtime Canuck fans hate this place. After winning their first two, the Rangers have dropped three staight. They're coming in hungry. They're a lucrative 100-73 (+27.6) over the years, after three or more consec. losses. They beat the Canucks again here last season. Schedule and venue in their favor, they should take care of business. Consider NY.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
Matt Blunt

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The first potential 'over' of the year on SNF came up short by the hook last week, as a missed FG by the Chargers early in that game stung, along with the fact it took three quarters for the Chargers to look like they were interested in playing football. But I guess when your home field is actually a soccer stadium, the best way to pay homage to that is to look like a soccer team and put up a big fat zero on the scoreboard for the first 45 minutes of the game like the Chargers did.

This week we get a high stakes division game between the Eagles and Cowboys – the two teams that will likely battle it out for the NFC East crown by season's end – and the winner of this first meeting will get an early leg up with a little more than half the season left.

Both the Eagles and Cowboys come into this prime time spot off of disappointing losses – for very different reasons – as Philly got lit up and blown out by Minnesota last week, while the Cowboys (minus 2/5 of their OL) couldn't beat the lowly Jets in QB Sam Darnold's return. Yet, it's the Dallas loss that's making all the headlines this week because of the overall quality of opponent they lost too, as the annual October/November tradition of the sky is falling in Dallas has arrived in 2019.

HC Jason Garrett is always on the hot seat after a loss or two, talk about QB Dak Prescott being a franchise guy or being worth a big extension is always met with negativity after a loss, and discussion about if the team is actually 'good enough' or who many thought they really were coming into the year dominates mainstream airwaves. Considering this is an annual occurrence for the Dallas Cowboys, it makes you wonder why the people in the great city of Dallas don't walk around wearing helmets every day during football season for how frequently the falling sky above their heads tickles their hair follicles. But nothing is ever as bad (or good) as it seems for teams in the NFL, and with two sides to every story, it's time to dive into this game.

Total Talk

To be quite honest, there isn't much to like about this total at all. Obviously many bettors out there are waiting for the injury report on both sides before diving in, as the Eagles secondary (and defense as a whole) has been ravaged by injuries all year, while concerns about those two lineman on Dallas remain.

But from all reports it sounds like the Eagles secondary will be a bit healthier this week, and those two Dallas O-lineman should be back in action as well. They were active in warm-up vs the Jets last week and were kept out for precautionary reasons – likely because it was a non-conference game vs the Jets and Philly was on deck – so I would venture a guess that they are back in action. That would suggest a lean to the high side of this total – one that's already been bet up to 49 most places after opening at 48.5 – and if forced to make a play on this total that's probably where I'd go.

But I don't know if it's because of all the QB injuries the entire league has dealt with this year, or if the overall caliber of offensive play is just down in 2019, but the 'unders' have been the side in general with totals in 2019, and they still are perfect on SNF. There has been plenty of bad QB play all around, especially under the bright lights of prime time football, and until that changes I'm not looking to back the high side of a total on SNF.

Side Spiel

Speaking of bad QB play, while everyone questions Dak Prescott and his ability to perform at that position at this level, it's funny to me that the entire betting world ignores even giving a speck of criticism to Carson Wentz. Eagles fans will tell you he's Houdini back there in the pocket at times, but his best escape act appears to be avoiding criticism at all cost. Sure, his injury-plagued career is something that does give him the benefit of the doubt in a sense, but his best escape act is always avoiding a bad word said about his play.

Eagles fans will tell you that injuries, poor coaching/play-calling by HC Doug Pederson on offense and DC Jim Schwartz on defense, a poor secondary, poor drafting in terms of lack of depth, and just all-around mistakes by the supporting cast around Wentz is to blame for Philly's struggles in games this year.

And while the injury complaint is legitimate because no NFL team can thrive with injury concerns – especially when the bulk of them come to one position group of the team – I don't understand how Wentz himself gets a free pass in all of it. Can you tell me what Wentz has won at this level? What big games? Any?

Sure, Wentz caught lightning in a bottle with his play in 2017 before injuring his knee, but it's not like the Eagles went through a gauntlet of opponents in those first 13 games that year. The poor drafting/lack of depth wasn't an issue for them then when Nick Foles came in as a replacement, nor was the play-calling and issue on either side of the ball. The Eagles supporting cast was clearly good enough to go on and win a Super Bowl with Foles that year, and all of that was good enough for them in the latter half of 2018 when Wentz went on the shelf again and they nearly got back to the NFC Championship game. Yes, a few faces have come and gone during those two years, but this Eagles core went a combined 10-3 SU when Foles was under center in 2017 and 2018. Where were all the complaints about everything about this Eagles organization other than the QB position then?

In fact, you take away that 'lightning in a bottle' 2017 season for Wentz, the guy comes into this Dallas game this week with a 15-18 SU record in games he's started. You're telling me that his teammates haven't 'played' for him that often? Come on now. Wentz is the Dorian Gray of the NFL – he looks the part at 6'5 with a big arm, but he's hiding a lot of ugliness underneath the surface if you ask me.

Furthermore, we don't have to go too far back in the time machine to think of another NFC East QB who has plenty of comparables in terms of career arc. This guy was drafted 2nd overall like Wentz, the team gave up 4+ high draft picks to move up to that spot to take him, he caught lightning in a bottle in one (and only one) season where he made a Pro Bowl, had said season cut short by an ACL injury, and watched as his replacement took the reigns of that team and parlayed success there – with the same supporting cast and/or coaching staff – into a big contract (there or elsewhere) just like Nick Foles did. Oh and he also took too many unnecessary hits inside and outside of the pocket like Wentz does.

Anyone got the answer?

How about Robert Griffin III.

RG III's 2012 season in Washington was quite similar to what Wentz's 2017 was (minus the team winning the Super Bowl) and everyone knew then and in the subsequent years that RG III was not a viable long-term starting QB option in the NFL. And while the simple eye test would give Wentz a huge leg up over RG III (admittedly Wentz is much better in that he can accurately throw and has the size of the prototypical NFL QB) it's also why I refer to him as Dorian Gray. His best attribute is simply looking the part of a legit NFL QB and nobody sees the ugly truth that's hidden away in the attic. Wentz just isn't all he's cracked up to be, and for whatever reason avoids taking heat for it as the blame game gets pushed towards anyone and everyone else involved with that Eagles team.

You can argue that guys around him don't play for him, but even if we were to take that as truth, that's just as damning on Wentz for his inability to connect with his teammates and be a leader. But nobody ever wants to say that. Philly had to choose him over Foles because of age alone, and now they are saddled with Wentz for big money, who's shown throughout his young career that he's not even consistent at having the best ability any NFL player could have: availability.

So while the entire world may be spending this week ripping Dallas, questioning how legit they are, and not wanting anything to do with them after losing to a bad team like the Jets, I've got no problem pounding them against the number this week. For one, it's a great spot to bounce back, and two, the Eagles are a team that continues to be thought of as a decent to great team (when healthy).

Injuries are their biggest issue right now and there is no denying that, but yes, play-calling in a specific instant, or specific game, can be suspect, but it's not been a major concern for the better part of a few years now. If it was, or if the supporting cast around the Eagles was, Philly wouldn't have had all the late-season success they had the past two years when Foles was at the helm. Let's not forget that it was Foles who suggested “Philly Philly” to HC Doug Pederson in the Super Bowl too.

Final Thoughts

Dallas isn't without it's warts either as the jury's still out on Prescott and rightfully so. But when you've got an offensive line like the one they've got, and a RB like they do, there is plenty for an 'average' QB to lean on to get the job done. The Cowboys are at home – a place where home field advantage for them has grown to league average the past year or two – and went the cautious route last week to make sure they were as healthy as could be for this week's game, even if it meant getting needlessly slandered by the masses for a week.

At 2-4 ATS against the spread this year, and allowing 27 or more points in four of their of six games this year, this Eagles team is one that deserves to continue to be bet against for the foreseeable future in my opinion. And losing in Dallas on Sunday night likely will be the beginning of the end for their chase of a division title in 2019, that is unless the Cowboys start to become a soap opera like they are known to do and let the Eagles back into the hunt.

In Dorian Gray, his true image eventually gets exposed to the world, and until that happens with Wentz and this Eagles team, I'll continue to look to take these short spreads that Philadelphia opponents are getting.

Best Bet: Dallas -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


POINTS TOUGH TO COME BY

The Miami quarterback situation isn't getting better anytime soon. They are switching abck to Ryan Fitzpatrick who now he has to go on the road and face a Bills defense that sits third in DVOA defense and held Tom Brady to his worst performance since 2006. The ‘Fins are 17-point underdogs against a team that is averaging 18 points a game. Maybe their team total of 11.5 is too high.

Buffalo’s Josh Allen has relied on his defense to hide his passing inabilities as he has thrown five interceptions in his last eight quarters of football. Allen’s offense is a bottom-10 unit in yards per drive and is scoring touchdowns in the red zone at an unsustainable rate that is bound to regress.

Get down on the Under 42 as we doubt Miami will reach their team total of 12 and Buffalo won’t be pushing the pace with the lead.


IS THERE A NEXT MAN UP?

Oakland Raiders top wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, has been ruled out for Sunday’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers and tight and Darren Waller had a mid-week downgrade on Thursday. Even if Waller does suit up, that leaves Trevor Davis, Hunter Renfrow, Keelan Doss, Devon White and Zay Jones. Did you even notice that one of those names is a 56-year-old World Series champion? Neither did we.

Davis, Renfrow and Doss make up 16 percent of Oakland’s entire receiving yards this year. So what is the appropriate response from the Packers defense against such a sad sack of receivers? Stack the box. Green Bay sits in 26th in DVOA rush defense but held the Lions to 2.6 yards per carry last week at home.

With Josh Jacobs’ rush total at 75.5 and the possibility that the Packers make the Raiders abandon the run, we are taking the Under.


KICKING IT IN WASHINGTON

With rain in the forecast and the heavy winds expected at FedEx Field in Washington, we aren’t foreseeing optimal kicking conditions for the 49ers and Washington game Sunday. With both teams averaging just over two field goals a game combined, this is a great spot for us to exploit some kicking markets.

The Under 3.5 field goals is a great play, but at -189, we are going to pass. Instead, we will look at the longest field goal Over/Under prop bet of 45.5 yards.

San Fran kicker Robbie Gould has made just two of his last seven field-goal attempts and missed or got his kicked blocked twice on kicks under 48 yards.

Washington’s leg, Dustin Hopkins, has only attempted four field goals in the last three weeks, making from 21, 21 and 35 but missing at 43.

Go ahead and feel comfortable with the Under 45.5 yards for the longest field goal.


DARRELL AND THE HENDERSONS

Things are getting thin at running back for Sean McVay and the L.A. Rams. No. 2 back Malcolm Brown has been ruled out for Sunday's matchup with Atlanta, leaving the far-from-healthy Todd Gurley and intriguing rookie Darrell Henderson.

Henderson could see his heaviest workload of the year as L.A. may manage Gurley’s reps yet again, especially after missing Week 6. The second-highest-paid RB has seen more than 15 carries just once this year and hasn’t eclipsed 65 yards rushing since Week 1.

The third-round rookie, Henderson, finally saw the field last week playing 32 percent of the snaps behind Brown with Gurley out. Henderson ran for 39 yards on six carries and could be in line for double-digit touches, albeit versus a tough Atlanta Falcons rush defense that leads the league in stuffs.

Henderson’s markets will open closer to kickoff once Brown is officially ruled out and Gurley is ruled active. We will be looking to get Henderson’s rushing total at any number below 50 and hitting the Over, and if his rushing attempt market is available, take the Over on 8.5 and below.


ACTION JACKSON

The Seattle Seahawks allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 35 yards and a score last week. Mayfield had zero yards rushing coming into that game and the 35 yards were his most since Week 5 of last year. This week versus Lamar Jackson, things will get infinitely more difficult for the Seattle defense and containing the opposing QB.

Jackson cleared his rushing total of 61.5 yards last week in the first half en route to 152 yards on 19 carries. Jackson has amassed 288 yards on the ground over the last three weeks and has his sights on this week’s total of 68.5.

With the Ravens’ only viable receiving threat likely sitting this one out, go get the Over on Jackson’s 68.5-yard total as Lamar will want to show the MVP frontrunner what he’s got.


J-HOW DO YOU DO?

There was a lot of talk about Jordan Howard taking control of the Philadelphia Eagles’ backfield two weeks ago after putting up big numbers in Weeks 4 through 5, but 49 yards on 13 carries against a top-4 DVOA rush defense in Week 6 seems to have killed that momentum. But this may give Howard backers some value as the hype has died down even though he managed 63 percent of the offensive snaps last week — the most snap percentage by any Philly back this year.

Howard will face the Dallas Cowboys’ No. 19 rush DVOA defense in the Sunday nighter. Jerry and ‘Boys have lost three-straight games and over that time have allowed a 4.3 yards per carry and five touchdowns to running backs. Howard will have the best chance to hit paydirt as he has out-touched his teammate, Miles Sanders, 15-to-5 in red-zone touches over the last three weeks.

We like Howard’s anytime TD as well as the Over on his 50.5 rushing yards. For the record, our man J-How is averaging 13 rushes for 59 yards and one score since Week 3.


WINDY CITY PASSING WOES

The bye-week probably didn’t fix any of the Chicago Bears’ passing troubles as only the Jets and Dolphins have fewer yards per pass attempt. Even Andy Dalton and Baker Mayfield have higher QBRs than Mitch Trubisky. But Bears coach Matt Nagy is no dummy and isn’t going to put the team’s chances of winning Sunday versus the New Orleans Saints solely on the arm of Trubisky, especially coming off a Week 4 shoulder injury.

The Bears and Saints game has the lowest total on the board at 38 for a reason — even the Dolphins-Bills game is three points higher. Chicago is a bottom-10 team in pass attempts per game, 31st in yards per completion while Trubisky is 35th in net yards per passing play — sandwiched between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen.

The Saints’ passing defense has also been on a roll of late allowing under 175 passing yards to opposing QBs over the last three weeks. Although they will be without slot corner P.J. Williams, the Saints can still make life difficult for this weak passing group unless Nagy can get creative.

The markets aren’t readily available for Mitch’s props as he is working his way back from the injury but isn’t listed on the injury report as he has practiced in full since Wednesday. We will be waiting for those markets to open and look to take the Under on his passing yards on any total over 205 yards.


BEST VERSUS THE WORST

Here is a breakdown of the best and worst matchups for receivers for this week. Stats per Football Outsider.

BEST WR1

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati (70.5): Boyd will face a Jaguars' secondary surrendering 97.4 yards to opposing WR1s. Cincy’s best receiver has gone over 100 yards in two-of-six games. Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ volatile pass game scares a little here.


WORST WR1

Michael Thomas, New Orleans (80.5): Thomas has been held to Under 80.5 yards just once this year, but he has yet to face the Bears’ secondary who are allowing just 36.9 yards to opposing No. 1s. Teddy Bridgewater may have his toughest task to date. We like the Under.


BEST TE

Evan Engram, New York Giants (83.5): It’s no surprise the Cardinals take the bottom spot for defending opposing tight ends as the Red Birds are giving up nearly 100 yards a game. Engram could have a huge game on Sunday. We wouldn’t call you crazy for hitting the Over trifecta on Engram’s yards and reception totals as well as an anytime TD.


WORST TE

Vernon Davis/Jeremy Sprinkle, Washington (N/A): The books are waiting to see how Davis practices Friday after dealing with a concussion before this line opens. Don’t expect much as the 49ers are averaging 25.4 yards against tight ends. Any bet with the San Fran defense is a good bet, though, in our opinion. Wait till closer to kickoff if you want to fade a Washington TE.


BEST RB

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis (24.5): The Houston Texans have been rolling offensively but have struggled to cover opposing running backs allowing 67 yards (double checked that number) to RBs. This is great value for the pass-catching Hines who has cleared that total in three straight weeks.


WORST RB

Chris Thompson, Washington (N/A): Even if one of the best third-down backs in the game can suit up Sunday, it will be for not as there is no stopping that San Francisco defense. They basically lead the league in every defensive category, and you can add lowest receiving yards to opposing RBs at 24.2 yards per game to the list.


QB PICKS

Cheering for interceptions is a great way to watch football. Here is a list of a few quarterbacks who may turn the ball over on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford (-125): Señor Stafford has only thrown two picks this year (two in Week 2) but divisional rivals the Vikings are a different beast. Minnesota has forced five INTs over six games. In his last four games against the Vikes, Stafford has struggled with just two TDs and one INT.

Deshaun Watson (-125): Mr. Watson is playing out his mind as of late but is coming off a two-pick performance in KC last week. The Texans QB has thrown nearly twice as many INTs when on the road and is facing a Colts defense that has picks in back-to-back games heading into Sunday.

Andy Dalton (-138): We all know that the Bengals are in that group of bad teams loitering at the bottom of the NFL standings. Andy Dalton has thrown five interceptions this year but with the Jaguars’ best corner gone and only forcing one INT in their last three, this is a pass for us, especially with the juice.

Matt Ryan (-107): This is the one we like the most. Ryan is averaging over one interception per game and with a potential shootout versus the Rams, the Falcons’ QB will have ample opportunities to turn it over through the air. The Rams also added Jalen Ramsey to their secondary making Ryan think twice about throwing towards Julio Jones and having to progress through his reads, if in fact Ramsey shadows Jones.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday Blitz - Week 7
October 19, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Texans at Colts (-1 ½, 47) – 1:00 PM EST
Houston (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) has taken over the top spot in the AFC South following a pair of high-scoring victories over Atlanta and Kansas City. The Texans rallied past the Chiefs last Sunday, 31-24 to cash as 3 ½-point favorites, highlighted by a 20-0 second quarter to erase an early 14-point deficit. Deshaun Watson juked his way into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter as the Texans improved to 3-0 ATS this season away from NRG Stadium.

The Colts (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are also coming off an underdog victory at Kansas City in its last game, albeit back in Week 5. Indianapolis is fresh off the bye after stunning the defending AFC West champions as 10 ½-point underdogs, 19-13, while outrushing the Chiefs in that Sunday night triumph, 180-36. The Colts are back at home for the first time since losing in surprising fashion to the upstart Raiders back in Week 4 as Indianapolis has drilled the OVER in both games at Lucas Oil Stadium this season.

This series was dominated by the road team last season as Houston outlasted Indianapolis at Lucas Oil in overtime, 37-34 to give the Texans its first win of 2018. That victory spurred a nine-game winning streak for Houston, which ended at home against Indianapolis in a 24-21 defeat in Week 14 as four-point favorites. The Colts eliminated the Texans in the Wild Card round at NRG Stadium in a 21-7 rout as Indianapolis led 21-0 headed to the fourth quarter.

Best Bet: Colts 23, Texans 20

Ravens at Seahawks (-3, 48) – 4:25 PM EST
The two teams that have not covered since Week 1 both reside in the Beltway as the Redskins and Ravens are currently on 0-5 ATS skids. Baltimore (4-2 SU, 1-5 ATS) sits atop the AFC North after holding off winless Cincinnati last week, 23-17, but the Ravens failed to cash as 10 ½-point favorites. After allowing the Bengals to return the opening kickoff for a touchdown, the Ravens outscored Cincinnati, 23-3 until giving up a late score to prevent a cover.

The Seahawks (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) have jumped out to an impressive start but still sit behind the undefeated 49ers for first place in the NFC West. Seattle has won four games by four points or less, including erasing a 20-6 deficit in last week’s 32-28 triumph at Cleveland to improve to 3-0 SU/ATS away from CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks have yet to cover at home this season in three tries, including in one-point wins over the Bengals and Rams. Seattle’s offense has exploded this season by posting 27 points or more in five straight games, as the OVER has hit four times in this stretch.

Baltimore is listed as an underdog for the second time this season after losing at Kansas City in Week 3. In spite of that loss, the Ravens are 3-1 SU/ATS as a ‘dog since Lamar Jackson took over as starting quarterback midway through 2018. The Seahawks own a perfect 3-0 mark against AFC North opponents tonight, while Seattle seeks its first cover as a home favorite since Week 14 last season against Minnesota.

Best Bet: Ravens 24, Seahawks 23

Saints at Bears (-4, 37) – 4:25 PM EST
There was expected concern when Drew Brees suffered a thumb injury in a Week 2 defeat to the Rams and he would be sidelined for six-to-eight weeks. However, the Saints (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) haven’t skipped a beat with their future Hall-of-Famer on the sidelines as veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has led New Orleans to four consecutive victories (and covers). The Saints avoided a letdown last Sunday after back-to-back home wins as New Orleans edged Jacksonville, 13-6 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 9-2 in the last 11 games away from the Superdome.

The Bears (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) return from the bye week following a surprising loss in London to the Raiders back in Week 5. Mitchell Trubisky is expected to play after missing the Oakland game with a shoulder injury, but there has not been a commitment yet from Bears’ head coach Matt Nagy. Chicago has scored only 19 points at home this season in two games at Soldier Field, but the Bears’ defense has yielded just 16 points against the Packers and Vikings. The Bears have allowed 17 points or less in eight of the past 11 home contests since the start of 2018, resulting in seven UNDERS.

The Saints will be without star running back Alvin Kamara with an ankle injury, as former Viking and Raider Latavius Murray is poised to receive a good number of carries on Sunday. New Orleans has won each of the past four meetings with Chicago dating back to 2011, including a 20-12 triumph at the Superdome as 7 ½-point favorites in 2017.

Best Bet: Bears 19, Saints 13

BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 43 ½ - Jaguars at Bengals
Jacksonville’s defense has been up and down to say the least all season as the Jaguars have moved on from star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who was traded to the Rams last week. The Jaguars have allowed 13 points or less in three games, while yielding 24 points or more in three other contests. Jacksonville slowed down New Orleans’ offense in Week 6, but the Jaguars’ offense mustered a pair of field goals in a 13-6 defeat. Cincinnati has struggled all season as evidenced by its 0-6 mark, but the Bengals can’t run the ball, while scoring its last offensive touchdown in the first half back in Week 2 against San Francisco.

TRAP OF THE WEEK
Both Rams and Falcons have struggled of late (actually Atlanta has stumbled all season). The defending NFC champions are riding a three-game skid since a 3-0 start, but are three-point road favorites as they head cross-country to face a 1-5 Atlanta squad. The Falcons have allowed 87 points in the past two losses at Houston and Arizona, but Atlanta has won in its lone opportunity as a home underdog this season against Philadelphia in Week 2. The Rams’ offense totaled 157 yards in last Sunday’s 20-7 home defeat to the 49ers, but L.A. has covered in five of its past seven chances as a road favorite.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE
The Packers opened up as 6 ½-point favorites against the Raiders last Monday at the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. However, Green Bay has dropped to 4 ½-point favorites against an Oakland team coming off the bye week. The Packers edged the Lions on Monday night to improve to 5-1 on the season, while the Raiders are fresh off back-to-back impressive underdog wins over the Colts and Bears.

BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW
Teams that have lost on Monday Night Football this season have not fared well the following week by posting a 1-5 SU/ATS record in 2019. Houston is the only team to win after a Monday night defeat, but the Texans failed to cash in a one-point victory over the Jaguars. The Lions sit in this position on Sunday after their 22-21 setback at Green Bay as Detroit hosts Minnesota. The Lions struggled with the Vikings last season by losing both meetings, while not reaching the end zone in either defeat.