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4.5 Star Vikings at Chiefs UNDER 48.5 The Chiefs are off a loss as a home dog to the Packers and they host another NFC North team here. The Chiefs have converted 6 of 11 third down attempts vs the Packers, for a healthy 55% conversion rate. However, they allowed the Packers to convert 8 of 13, for an even better 62%. If the Chiefs are going to win here, they cant allow the Vikings to sustain drives with a new set of downs. We have a system that indicates the Chiefs will emphasize their defense; teams that are off a loss as a home dog and converted at least five third downs in each of their last two games are 0-19 OU on grass when they are facing a team that has averaged fewer than 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. This system was 0-11 OU in 2017, 0-5 OU last season a is 0-2 OU so far this season.
As a team, the Chiefs are 0-9 OU (-13.89 ppg) when the line is within three of pick on grass off a loss facing an opponent that is averaging at least 28 rushes per game, 0-8 OU (-7.38 ppg) as a favorite on grass after a game in which they had at least three fewer penalties than their season-to-date average and 0-8 OU (-8.69 ppg) when the line is within three of pick on grass off a loss in which their opponent converted at least five third downs.
The Vikings recorded four sacks against the Redskins in their last game and this qualifies them for an emerging system that indicates the UNDER. When the line is within three points of pick on grass NFL Teams that are off a game as a favorite in which they recorded four-plus sacks are 0-15 OU, staying UNDER by an average of 15.96 ppg.
Kansas City has forced an average of 3.4 punts per game this season, and this is ranked 27th in the league. The Vikings have tended to stay UNDER vs similar teams, as they are 0-10 OU (-11.85 ppg) off a game as a favorite off a win facing an opponent that is forcing an average of fewer than four punts per game. The SDQL text is:
team=Vikings and p:F and p:W and oA(o
unts)<4 and date>=20141116
In their last two games in this spot, the Vikings beat the Lions 27-9 and the Redskins 19-9.
Finally, Minnesota is 0-11 OU (-8.18 ppg) on grass after a double-digit win as a home favorite in which they converted at least five third downs, including two UNDERs this season. The SDQL is:
team=Vikings and surface=grass and p:H and p:F and p:margin>=10 and p:3DM>=5 and date>=20031214
Make the play the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: Vikings 20 CHIEFS 17
4.5 Star Vikings at Chiefs UNDER 48.5 The Chiefs are off a loss as a home dog to the Packers and they host another NFC North team here. The Chiefs have converted 6 of 11 third down attempts vs the Packers, for a healthy 55% conversion rate. However, they allowed the Packers to convert 8 of 13, for an even better 62%. If the Chiefs are going to win here, they cant allow the Vikings to sustain drives with a new set of downs. We have a system that indicates the Chiefs will emphasize their defense; teams that are off a loss as a home dog and converted at least five third downs in each of their last two games are 0-19 OU on grass when they are facing a team that has averaged fewer than 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. This system was 0-11 OU in 2017, 0-5 OU last season a is 0-2 OU so far this season.
As a team, the Chiefs are 0-9 OU (-13.89 ppg) when the line is within three of pick on grass off a loss facing an opponent that is averaging at least 28 rushes per game, 0-8 OU (-7.38 ppg) as a favorite on grass after a game in which they had at least three fewer penalties than their season-to-date average and 0-8 OU (-8.69 ppg) when the line is within three of pick on grass off a loss in which their opponent converted at least five third downs.
The Vikings recorded four sacks against the Redskins in their last game and this qualifies them for an emerging system that indicates the UNDER. When the line is within three points of pick on grass NFL Teams that are off a game as a favorite in which they recorded four-plus sacks are 0-15 OU, staying UNDER by an average of 15.96 ppg.
Kansas City has forced an average of 3.4 punts per game this season, and this is ranked 27th in the league. The Vikings have tended to stay UNDER vs similar teams, as they are 0-10 OU (-11.85 ppg) off a game as a favorite off a win facing an opponent that is forcing an average of fewer than four punts per game. The SDQL text is:
team=Vikings and p:F and p:W and oA(o
unts)<4 and date>=20141116 In their last two games in this spot, the Vikings beat the Lions 27-9 and the Redskins 19-9.
Finally, Minnesota is 0-11 OU (-8.18 ppg) on grass after a double-digit win as a home favorite in which they converted at least five third downs, including two UNDERs this season. The SDQL is:
team=Vikings and surface=grass and p:H and p:F and p:margin>=10 and p:3DM>=5 and date>=20031214
Make the play the UNDER.
MTis FORECAST: Vikings 20 CHIEFS 17
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