Service Plays Saturday 11/9/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Perfect System Club Perfect Play!

Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

9-0 ATS NCAA RARE PERFECT DATABASE WAGER
San Diego State

21-6 ATS NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH
Boise State

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Missanelli
michigan st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

7 Unit Play Take #187 Georgia State -2.5 over Louisiana Monroe (5:00pm est):

The line in this game is a real head scratcher for me as I made Georgia State more than a touchdown favorite. The Panthers are playing some great football of late with four straight wins coming into this game. Even more impressive is they won each of those games despite the fact they weren't expected to either as they were underdogs in each one of those four games. Georgia State is also coming off their bye week so they will have had two weeks to prepare for this contest. This is a confident football team that thinks it could win the Sun Belt East division as they are currently tied with just one loss in league play. That conference loss was at Texas State back in September in a game that Georgia State should have won but were done in by a -3 turnover margin in the game and lost in overtime to the Bobcats.Louisiana Monroe is 3-5 on the season currently. Their three wins came in their three easiest contests to date this season and were all in games that they were favored to win. When asked to step up in class the Warhawks have failed miserably this year going just 1-4 against the spread in those games. They are 0-4 against the spread versus teams with a winning record this year and 0-6 overall going back to last year during the regular season. Even more alarming is the fact they have lost those four games this year by an average of 18 points more than the what actual point spread of the game was. ULM was smashed by this Georgia State team last year losing 46-14 and they have dropped their last two against them the past two seasons.Take Georgia State and lay the points here.

5 Unit Play Take #177 Georgia Southern -3 over Troy (3:30pm est):

Georgia Southern went 10-3 last year and so expectations were high for this team coming into this season. The Eagles ended up starting off slower than expected going just 1-3 in their first four games. Looking back now though it's a lot more clear why this team didn't play well early on as their three defeats came against teams that are currently a combined 22-2 overall. They nearly beat a good Minnesota team on the road losing by just 3 points as a 17 point underdog in a game the Gophers scored the go ahead touchdown with 12 seconds left. They come into this one having won four straight games including beating undefeated at the time Appalachian State last week on the road. The Eagles have been great play from their defense and now have a healthy running back in Wesley Kennedy back after he misses their first four games of the season and his addition has been huge to this run based offense as he's gained more than 100 yards in each of his last three games. while averaging more than 9 yards per carry during that time.Troy has been a huge disappointment this season. The Trojans came into this season with three straight double digit win years under former head coach Neal Brown. Chip Lindsey took over the program after Brown went to West Virginia and though the offense looks the same, the defense isn't performing near their past levels. Troy is just 3-5 on the year and they have allowed 45 points per game in their five losses. This is a team that has been favored to win 7 of their 8 games so far and yet only have wins over their three easiest opponents (FCS team Campbell, Akron and South Alabama) and all in games they were favored by more than 17 points.Take Georgia Southern minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #161 Baylor -2.5 over TCU (12:00pm est):

The Baylor Bears come into this game very quietly undefeated at 8-0 overall on the season. They have what I feel is one of the better head coaches in CFB with Matt Rhule who's in his 3rd year at Baylor as the Bears have shown considerable improvement after going 1-11 in year one. The Bears have two very impressive conference road wins under their belt this season beating Oklahoma State and Kansas State and doing so in very impressive fashion winning those games by an average of 19 points. Those wins look even better the deeper that we get into this season as both of those two squads haven't lost since their games against Baylor. The Bears should have their entire focus for this contest as they have dropped four straight head to head games to TCU. Last week's close Baylor win over West Virginia likely gave us another point or two of line value for this game here as they only won that game by 3 points. That final score wasn't indicative of how much they dominated the Mountaineers at the line of scrimmage in that game as they ended up doubling them in 1st downs and in yardage for the contest.I have been down on this TCU program the last couple of seasons. Though their head coach Gary Patterson has done a wonderful job at this school for nearly 20 years it seems like this program has went backwards a notch or two the last couple of years. The Horned Frogs went a combined 23-3 in 2014 and 2015 but since then they have been a mediocre team 3 of the past 4 years. With that they have also become overvalued in the betting markets as well and especially so when they are playing at home as they are just 6-16 against the spread in their last 22 games played in Fort Worth. TCU has dropped 4 of their 5 biggest games to date this season including to the same Kansas State and Oklahoma State teams that Baylor has no trouble beating. The Horned Frogs are also dealing with some possible quarterback issues in this one as their starter was hurt last week late in the game and he may not be able to go in this one. The bigger issue for them comes if he can't play as his backup is also hurt and likely won't be healthy enough to go in this one if called upon and the 3rd stringer QB for TCU just quit the team this week deciding that he would transfer to another school.Play Baylor minus the points.

3 Unit Take #186 Louisiana Tech -5.5 over North Texas (4:00pm est):

North Texas is overrated this year. In their five lowest spread games this season or what is all of their games where the line was single digits, they have failed to cover the point spread in any of those games and are just 1-4 straight-up. The Mean Green have badly failed to live up to expectations against similar competition as they have lost by an average of 14 points more than what the average spread was in those five games. They have really struggled away from home this season as they are winless in their four road contests. One big story in this one is the health between these two teams as North Texas lost it's best offensive weapon (besides their QB Mason Fine) WR Rico Bussey to a season ending injury earlier in the year and now they could be down a couple of key players in this one especially on a defense that's not playing well this season.Louisiana Tech should be fresh, more healthy and ready to go in this one coming off a bye week. The Bulldogs opened the season with a loss at Texas but since then have rattled off 7 straight wins and are 5-1 against the spread in their last 6. They are playing their best football of the season right now with solid win over a decent Southern Mississippi team at home a few games back in a game their defense slowed down a potent USM passing attack. LA Tech is a veteran group and overall a program with six straight winning seasons and they have beat North Texas in 4 of the past 5 years.Lay the points with Louisiana Tech in this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

IOWA ST. +14.5
IOWA ST. @ OKLAHOMA | 11/09 | 8:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:09 PM
Even with a bye week to recover, Oklahoma might not be able to muster sufficient energy after likely being bumped from the playoff picture with a loss to Kansas State. Iowa State’s veteran players will not be cowed over playing in Norman. The Cyclones won there straight-up in 2017. QB Brock Purdy is the third-most prolific passer in FBS.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
APP. ST. +6
APP. ST. @ SOUTH CAROLINA | 11/09 | 7:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:07 PM
It was a clear-cut case of looking ahead when App State stumbled against Georgia Southern last week. Now, the Mountaineers can rinse the sour taste out of their mouths. South Carolina’s offense, average when healthy, must get by without top RB Tavien Feaster, while No. 2 WR Shi Smith (hamstring) is iffy. When App State last confronted a Power Five school, it took Penn State into overtime before bowing.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
6-0 IN LAST 6 SC ATS PICKS | +600

MIAMI (FLA.) -6.5
LOUISVILLE @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:04 PM
Louisville has picked itself off the deck under first-year coach Scott Satterfield, but has played only two true road games. Miami owns the talent edge at most positions. The Hurricanes are coming off their highlight game of the season that resulted in the firing of Florida State’s coach. The Canes’ defense, No. 2 in the ACC for points allowed, should keep the Cardinals fenced in. Louisville’s 4-0 ATS streak in the series is insignificant because both coaches are new to the job.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIAMI ATS PICKS | +78

BAYLOR -2.5
BAYLOR @ TCU | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:02 PM
With QBs at TCU, don’t write anything in indelible ink. Two candidates to play this season transferred. Last Saturday, starter Max Duggan (finger) and backup Mike Collins (abdomen) were knocked out. Duggan is expected to open the game, but his accuracy could be impaired. Baylor has covered in five of six recent away games, and TCU is an ATS disaster at home, winning just seven of the last 27.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
UNDER 76.5
GEORGIA ST. @ UL-MONROE | 11/09 | 5:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
Totals do not get much bigger than this one. Both teams can pile up points, but the FBS has 42 offenses that are statistically superior to Louisiana-Monroe’s. Neither side has played a game with a posted total as high as 70 this season, so 76 is quite a hike. Georgia State has yielded an average of just 25.0 points its past three games. Take the Under.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
UNDER 45
ILLINOIS @ MICHIGAN ST. | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
WED 11/6
These teams have camped out in Underland. The past four Illini road games have fallen shy of the total. Michigan State has been Under in seven of the last nine at home and 13 of 16 overall. The Spartans will sorely miss Darrell Stewart, the Big Ten’s second most prolific receiver, and center Matt Allen with leg injuries. The cherry on top: The series has spun out four Unders in the last five meetings. Take the Under.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
UNDER 48.5
VANDERBILT @ FLORIDA | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
Can you spell “shutout”? Well, that is a reach, but how is the SEC’s lowest-ranked offense (Vanderbilt's) going to score without its top two QBs, both concussed, and against the league’s third stingiest team for points allowed? Vanderbilt will try to shorten the game with a replacement QB (or two) geared toward the run. Florida might need to record 40 points to tip this to Over but has not hit the big four-oh against an FBS opponent this season. Take the Under.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
NC STATE +32
CLEMSON @ NC STATE | 11/09 | 7:30 PM EST
MON 11/4
There are plenty of walking wounded on N.C. State, and Clemson will be motivated to run up the score to impress the playoff committee. But 32 points on the road against a team that has not lost straight-up at home are too many to give. Clemson’s take-no-prisoners offense is rocking, but it has yet to confront an ACC defense as stout as the Wolfpack’s, which is ranked fourth in the league.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
LOUISIANA TECH -5.5
NORTH TEXAS @ LOUISIANA TECH | 11/09 | 4:00 PM EST
MON 11/4
The site of this matchup is all that matters. North Texas is winless ATS on the road this year and 1-7 going back to mid-2018. Louisiana Tech is perfect ATS at home this season. The Bulldogs have covered in all but one of the last five meetings and are stepping out of a bye week. They are well-equipped to engage in a shootout if Mean Green quarterback Mason Fine gets rolling.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
3-2 IN LAST 5 LATECH ATS PICKS | +75

UNDER 65
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
MON 11/4
Forget about LSU’s ramped-up offense, as hard as that may be. Dismiss Alabama’s array of skill-position standouts and the possible return of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from an ankle injury, as difficult as that seems. Defensive battles, or at least modest offensive displays, are ingrained in this series as the last five meetings have had combined scores below 47 and resulted in Unders. What truly is challenging to envision is defensive-minded Alabama coach Nick Saban engaging in a shootout.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAMA O/U PICKS | +86

UNDER 40.5
PURDUE @ NORTHWESTERN | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
MON 11/4
Purdue is down to third-string quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who began the season as a walk-on, because of injuries. Six of Northwestern's last eight games have been at or below this total, and the Wildcats have produced a stunningly low total of six points over their last three contests. The Boilermakers are in the midst of a 12-3 Under run dating to last season.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
MASSACHUSETTS +35
MASSACHUSETTS @ ARMY | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
MON 11/4
UMass is among the candidates for the title of weakest FBS team but should be able to stay within five touchdowns of Army, whose rush-first approach often means a running clock. The Black Knights average just 90 yards passing per game. At 0-4 ATS in home contests, they continually get spotted too many points.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864
3-2 IN LAST 5 ARMY ATS PICKS | +80

MARYLAND +42.5
MARYLAND @ OHIO ST. | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
MON 11/4
This super-sized line actually has dipped a few points. There still is reason to side with the underdog while ignoring that Ohio State has covered its last seven games and Maryland is 1-6 straight-up since being ranked 21st in the country two weeks into the season. The spread is, by far, the biggest for a conference game in any league. Terrapins quarterback Josh Jackson was rusty last Saturday versus Michigan in his first start back from injury and should be more in tune against the Buckeyes.

23-13 IN LAST 36 CFB PICKS | +864

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

ARMY -34.5
MASSACHUSETTS @ ARMY | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
UMass has been awful defensively, giving up 52 points per game, and the offense also has been ineffective. When you combine that with an option opponent like Army that does a great job controlling the ball, you get the easiest cover of the week.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
2-1 IN LAST 3 MA ATS PICKS | +89

PENN ST. -7
PENN ST. @ MINNESOTA | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Golden Gophers are off to their best start in about four decades and rewarded coach P.J. Fleck with a contract extension. Minnesota has done well on both sides of the ball, but its balanced offense will be put to the test against a Penn State defense that is among the best in college football. Expect some nerves from the Gophers in a game of this magnitude.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
7-1 IN LAST 8 PSU ATS PICKS | +597

NOTRE DAME -8
NOTRE DAME @ DUKE | 11/09 | 7:30 PM EST
WED 11/6
I thought last week, the final drive by Fighting Irish quarterback Ian Book was the best performance of his career. You got a chance to see the poise, athleticism and passing skills in a crucial situation against Virginia Tech. While the Blue Devils offense has been good, they haven't enjoyed as much success on defense. Look for Notre Dame to set the tone early en route to a big win.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
3-0 IN LAST 3 DUKE ATS PICKS | +300

APP. ST. +5
APP. ST. @ SOUTH CAROLINA | 11/09 | 7:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
This is a tricky game for the Gamecocks. The Mountaineers are the type of team that gets amped up for matchups like this. I think App State overlooked Georgia Southern last week and was upset. There's nothing like a humbling loss before a big game to help refocus a team. The fact that this line is -5 should definitely tell you something.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
5-1 IN LAST 6 APLST ATS PICKS | +390

2-1 IN LAST 3 SC ATS PICKS | +90

GEORGIA ST. -2.5
GEORGIA ST. @ UL-MONROE | 11/09 | 5:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
Georgia State is trying to keep pace with Appalachian State in the Sun Belt's East division, and the teams meet next week. However, the Panthers can't overlook a Louisiana-Monroe team that can put up a lot of points. The Warhawks' Caleb Evans is one of the most underrated passers in the country. I don't trust the Warhawks defense, and I do trust the Panthers' ability to force turnovers.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
2-1 IN LAST 3 GAST ATS PICKS | +90

LSU +6.5
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
WED 11/6
It looks like Alabama star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be ready, but there could be a bit of rust after he missed essentially two games. The Crimson Tide defense hasn't looked as dominant as it has in past years. LSU is storming into Tuscaloosa armed with one of the best passing attacks in the country behind a Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAMA ATS PICKS | +90

2-1 IN LAST 3 LSU ATS PICKS | +89

WAKE FOREST -2.5
WAKE FOREST @ VIRGINIA TECH | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Demon Deacons offense looks much better since the return of Jamie Newman, who has been playing like the best quarterback in the ACC without much notice. Virginia Tech's defense has improved a lot since the start of the season. That explains the low spread, but it won't be enough for the Hokies to knock off Wake Forest.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
CINCINNATI -35
CONNECTICUT @ CINCINNATI | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
WED 11/6
With the release of the initial CFB Playoff rankings, you are going to see teams adjusting their plans to to try to move up. Cincinnati is ranked 20th despite an impressive 7-1 start. If the Bearcats want to play in a New Year's Six bowl, they will have to continue to win, and do it with style.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
4-2 IN LAST 6 CINCY ATS PICKS | +178

2-1 IN LAST 3 UCONN ATS PICKS | +90

BAYLOR -2.5
BAYLOR @ TCU | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
WED 11/6
TCU will provide a defensive challenge for Baylor, so I can understand why the line is set where it is. What gives the Bears a chance to keep this magical season rolling is their ability to run the ball. Against a defense like TCU's, which relies on pressuring the quarterback, the ground game is going to be Baylor's best bet in this one.

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
WISCONSIN -9.5
IOWA @ WISCONSIN | 11/09 | 4:00 PM EST
TUE 11/5
"The Badger Way" is still a good way to play the game: Run game and defense. Iowa does a great job of playing the same style of attack. Where this game will be decided is in the trenches. Wisconsin's ability to dominate up front, along with RB Jonathan Taylor's ability to hit the home run, will be the difference in a huge Big Ten matchup Saturday. Lay the points with Wisconsin

73-41 IN LAST 114 CFB ATS PICKS | +2875
8-3-1 IN LAST 12 WISC ATS PICKS | +474

6-2 IN LAST 8 IOWA ATS PICKS | +389

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

FEATURED PICK
LSU +6.5
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
WED 11/6
The Crimson Tide will take the blueprint that Auburn used two weeks ago against the LSU offense and build off it. They won't let those talented wide receivers get deep into the downfield routes, and keep the game in front of them. On the other side, LSU will take away the slants enough to keep it close and keep Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (yes, he's playing) in the pocket. The Tide will win, but LSU keeps it within the number.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
4-1 IN LAST 5 LSU ATS PICKS | +290

TENNESSEE +1.5
TENNESSEE @ KENTUCKY | 11/09 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:12 PM
The Vols are rolling thanks to a defensive renaissance orchestrated by coach Jeremy Pruitt. A 7-5 record is in sight, and Darrell Taylor and Co. will take advantage of a Kentucky offense that is using its best wide receiver at quarterback.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
UNDER 39.5
PURDUE @ NORTHWESTERN | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:11 PM
The Boilermakers are on QB No. 3 and the Wildcats haven't scored a touchdown since Oct. 5. They can't make this total low enough.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
PENN ST. -6.5
PENN ST. @ MINNESOTA | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:08 PM
The Golden Gophers' defensive stats are inflated due to the fact that they've benefitted from opponents with massive offensive injuries. They don't have the speed or talent to keep up with the likes of K.J. Hamler and Noah Cain.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
4-0 IN LAST 4 PSU ATS PICKS | +400

LIBERTY +17
LIBERTY @ BYU | 11/09 | 7:30 PM EST
TUE 11/5
Did you know that the Flames boast the No. 16 offense in the nation in yards per play at 6.77? The Cougars, meanwhile, are ranked No. 69 in the nation in opponent's plays of 10 or more yards with 121. I'll ride with the big play offense to take advantage of a defense that gives up big plays enough to keep it within 17.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
LOUISVILLE +6.5
LOUISVILLE @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
TUE 11/5
The Cardinals -- off a great defensive performance in a win over Virginia (311 yards) -- have had two weeks to prepare for an average Miami offense coming off an emotional win over rival Florida State. Do you trust Miami's offensive line against anybody? I don't. This will be a defensive slugfest that will come down to the wire.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035
UNDER 49.5
BAYLOR @ TCU | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
TUE 11/5
This is a battle between two of the top three defenses in the Big 12, and Bears coach Matt Rhule won't take too many chances in Fort Worth in a game that his team has to win in order to keep its CFP hopes alive. Meanwhile, Horned Frogs QB Max Duggan is going to have his work cut out for him going up against this aggressive Bears defense.

28-16-2 IN LAST 46 CFB PICKS | +1035

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel

TCU +2.5
BAYLOR @ TCU | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:05 PM
The Frogs are in the midst of another down year by Gary Patterson's standards,and they still need two more wins to become bowl-eligible. The best opportunities for those will come in their final two home games, starting Saturday against undefeated Baylor. TCU defeated rival Texas a couple weeks ago and now it has a chance to put a damper on a breakout year for an even more despised foe.

49-29-3 IN LAST 81 CFB PICKS | +1678
10-3 IN LAST 13 BAYLOR ATS PICKS | +665

4-0 IN LAST 4 TCU ATS PICKS | +400

MARYLAND +43.5
MARYLAND @ OHIO ST. | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:56 PM
Chase Young's absence for Ohio State hasn't impacted the spread, but at least it gives the Terrapins one less thing ot worry about. The bigger motive behind this play is that the Buckeyes have become such a reliable cash machine that oddsmakers appeared determined to close them for repair Saturday with an astronomical number. Maryland is awful, but at least it does have a handful of viable weapons on offense. Which means it can score the handful of points necessary to get there.

49-29-3 IN LAST 81 CFB PICKS | +1678
4-0 IN LAST 4 MD ATS PICKS | +400

8-4 IN LAST 12 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +364

ALABAMA -6
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 5:30 PM
Since when does supporting Alabama as less than a touchdown favorite against an SEC opponent put you in the minority? On Saturday against LSU, evidently. It's not often the Crimson Tide can play the "no respect" card, but it might be applicable in this case. Never have so many analysts proclaimed their affinity for an Alabama opponent in a big spot, and the spread has moved south of a key number. Tua Tagovailoa saw his Heisman chances ruined by an injury-shortened, poor performance last season. He makes up for it in this one.

49-29-3 IN LAST 81 CFB PICKS | +1678

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GREG SHAKER | CFB TOTAL SAT, 11/09/19 - 3:30 PM
168 Alabama / 167 LSU Under 65.5 William Hill

triple-dime bet
Analysis:
I did not go back beyond 10 years for this rivalry but UNDER is 9-1 the last 10 and neither of those posted numbers were even close to the one we are getting Saturday. In fact the average number has been in the 40's and mostly in the low 40's. The only game that went Over the Mark was 6 yˆears ago and it did so by 1 point. It is simply that kind of series, we had the UNDER last year in this game and almost always do. Yes we have 2 great offensive teams and yes the Bama QB will be back. But we also have the #15 and #19 defenses on the field and you can best bet that both will come to play. I could probably talk days about why UNDER is the HIGH % Play here but there is no reason to. Let's Play at your best number for 3*


Friday Notes: I have had some questions about this number and where it is now. The number is still VERY GOOD and in fact you can play it for the full 3* at 60 or better..


Pick Made: Nov 5 2019 10:03AM PST
GREG SHAKER | CFB SIDE SAT, 11/09/19 - 7:00 PM
140 South Carolina -5.0 (-110) William Hill vs 139 Appalachian St

double-dime bet
Analysis:
My Power rating are out of whack on this one and I don't care how good App State is this is going to be a tough game for them on the road facing a team that needs wins for Bowl Worthiness. Let's lay the small number and play the SEC here..

Pick Made: Nov 7 2019 5:50AM PST



GREG SHAKER | CFB TOTAL SAT, 11/09/19 - 8:00 PM
174 Oklahoma / 173 Iowa St. Under 68.0 William Hill

double-dime bet
Analysis:
2* Play at 65 or better..

Pick Made: Nov 7 2019 6:13AM PST



GREG SHAKER | CFB TOTAL SAT, 11/09/19 - 3:30 PM
184 Texas / 183 Kansas St. Under 58.0 William Hill

double-dime bet
Analysis:
2* Play at 56 or better..

Pick Made: Nov 7 2019 6:14AM PST



GREG SHAKER | CFB SIDE SAT, 11/09/19 - 12:00 PM
142 Minnesota 7.0 (-110) BetOnline vs 141 Penn St.

double-dime bet
Analysis:
If you need to buy the 1/2 but there some 7's ou€t there. This is a 2* play at 4.5 or better though..

Pick Made: Nov 7 2019 1:29PM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant

#136 michigan state -14.5 (-107) bet size = 3%
#167 lsu +6 (-110) bet size = 3%
#140 south carolina -5.5 (-110) bet size = 5%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

WYOMING +14
WYOMING @ BOISE ST. | 11/09 | 10:15 PM EST
THU 11/7
There's money to be made fading Boise State at home, and this is one of those times. First of all, Boise is only 12-18 ATS at home since the 2015 season, and it's been favored in all of those games but one (it covered as a dog). This week it will face a Wyoming team that isn't as talented, but is well-coached and will make life difficult on the Boise offense. It will also do what it can to control the clock and keep the Broncos within range.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
MIAMI (FLA.) -6.5
LOUISVILLE @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
THU 11/7
My numbers have been telling me that Miami has been undervalued the last few weeks, and they have been. They've won and covered in three of their last four. My numbers tell me that they're being undervalued again in this spot as well, as Louisville's offensive line has not been strong, and Miami's front seven should feast on it like it did against Pitt and Florida State.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIAMI ATS PICKS | +189

GEORGIA -16.5
MISSOURI @ GEORGIA | 11/09 | 7:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
Missouri has been two different teams this season. At home it's 5-0 and winning by nearly 10 points per game. On the road its 0-3 and losing by nearly 27 points per game. It's 0-3 ATS on the road as well, and it will be 0-4 after Georgia runs all over it on Saturday.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIZZOU ATS PICKS | +90

SAN JOSE ST. +7.5
SAN JOSE ST. @ HAWAII | 11/09 | 11:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
There was once a time when I believed it was smart to bet against teams making the trip to Honolulu. It's a long flight! It's Honolulu! They'll be distracted! Well, turns out that's not the case. In fact, since 2015, Hawaii is only 7-22-1 ATS at home. As a home favorite it's 3-12-1 ATS, and this San Jose State team it's facing Saturday is too explosive on offense to think Hawaii will cover this spread.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
2-1 IN LAST 3 HAWAII ATS PICKS | +92

OVER 67.5
IOWA ST. @ OKLAHOMA | 11/09 | 8:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
Oklahoma has one of the most explosive offenses no matter where it plays, but it always seems to have a bit more when playing at home. Since Lincoln Riley took over from Bob Stoops, the Over has gone 13-3-1 in Oklahoma's home games. They put on a show for the home crowd, and Iowa State will find the end zone more than a few times itself.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
UNDER 39.5
PURDUE @ NORTHWESTERN | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
It doesn't always have to be complicated. A total this low is this low for a reason, and it's because both of these offenses are bad. Purdue's has shown an ability to move the ball, but it's down to allowing the drum major play QB (not really, though it may as well be). Then there's the Northwestern offense, which is just what they call the unit of 11 players that goes on the field between punts. First to 10 points wins.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
IOWA +9.5
IOWA @ WISCONSIN | 11/09 | 4:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
Teams like Northwestern, Illinois and Ohio State have shown the formula for stopping Wisconsin. If you limit Jonathan Taylor's big plays, and get Wisconsin into third downs, Jack Coan hasn't shown the ability to consistently move the chains. Well, Iowa is let to allow a single run of greater than 20 yards all season long. They're the only defense that can say that, and that will help the Hawkeyes cover nearly 10 points in what should be a low-scoring game.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
4-1 IN LAST 5 WISC ATS PICKS | +289

PENN ST. -6.5
PENN ST. @ MINNESOTA | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
THU 11/7
Why is an 8-0 team ranked only No. 17? Well, it's mostly because Minnesota hasn't played anybody. The best team it has beaten is 5-4 Illinois. Illinois also happens to be the only Big Ten team that had its starting QB against Minnesota, and he left the game early with an injury. Penn State is far and away the best team Minnesota has faced, and when you combine that with the stakes of this game -- which Minnesota is not used to dealing with -- makes Penn State the smart play here.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
2-1 IN LAST 3 PSU ATS PICKS | +86

UNDER 63
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
THU 11/7
We don't know enough about the status of Tua Tagovailoa to allow me to be comfortable taking any side. What we do know is that Tua was still banged up a month after suffering this same injury last year, and this time it's only been three weeks. Odds are he won't be 100 percent, and that will hurt Alabama's offense. Then there's the LSU offense which showed it can be slowed down against Auburn, and Nick Saban's had an extra week to prepare for it. This isn't going to be the shootout the total suggests.

19-11-2 IN LAST 32 CFB PICKS | +781
2-1 IN LAST 3 LSU O/U PICKS | +90

[dawggy]

HUDDLE UP

Guaranteed College Football Lock of the Year:
Penn State -6'

Early Best Bets:
Ohio State -43
Vnaderbilt +27
TCU +3
Georgia Tech +16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence

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From vegas insider
lsu
minnesota
tcu
oklahoma

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc lawrence

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Data play
boise st

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zack Cimini

CONTRARIAN WITH CHUTZPAH

A Las Vegas handicapper who's never afraid to buck conventional wisdom, Zack excels in multiple sports. All-time at SportsLine, Zack is 173-142-5 on college basketball picks, returning $1,837 to $100 players. He's even better in MLB, where he entered the 2019 season up $3,067 on a record of 263-218-2. For Zack Cimini media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.


SAN JOSE ST. +8
SAN JOSE ST. @ HAWAII | 11/09 | 11:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:23 PM
Three of four losses by Hawaii has put their bowl game aspirations on hold. On Saturday, the Warriors figure to get a sixth win against San Jose State to assure bowl appearance. But look for the improved San Jose State Spartan to test a shaken Hawaii defense. Take the points here.

PENN ST. -6.5
PENN ST. @ MINNESOTA | 11/09 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:22 PM
Running the table in the Big 10 always has its November road blocks. Both Penn State and Minnesota had a bye week before Saturday’s undefeated showdown. Even with the Gophers' vaunted offense, look for the Nittany Lions to have enough counters on the road to prevail ATS.

SOUTH ALABAMA +7
SOUTH ALABAMA @ TEXAS ST. | 11/09 | 3:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:20 PM
Having faced the upper echelon of the Sun Belt in consecutive weeks figures to the advantage of Texas State. Yet, quarterback Tyler Vitt has been extremely turnover prone. As inefficient as South Alabama has been offensively look for short fields to spark them ATS. Grab South Alabama.

9-3 IN LAST 12 SALA ATS PICKS | +559

2-1 IN LAST 3 TXSTSM ATS PICKS | +95

VIRGINIA TECH +2.5
WAKE FOREST @ VIRGINIA TECH | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:16 PM
Execution of game plans has been one of the main strengths of Virginia Tech. Through numerous issues at the quarterback position they’ve found a way to win or be in winnable situations. Their only bad loss came against Duke. Look for the Hokies to be up for the challenge to limit Demon Deacons quarterback Kaleb Newman. Grab Virginia Tech.

9-3-2 IN LAST 14 WAKE ATS PICKS | +564

5-1 IN LAST 6 VATECH ATS PICKS | +395

LSU +6
LSU @ ALABAMA | 11/09 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 10:14 PM
The unknown Saturday comes into play with how effective Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be. In years past, he has been able to come back and not skip a beat. Yet, Saturday’s challenge is much different. Alabama’s dominance over LSU has featured several blowouts and a win over the Tigers in seven straight years. Look for the Tigers to finally challenge the Crimson Tide and cover.