Thursday 11-7-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Nov 07 '19, 10:35 PM in 13h
NHL | Wild vs Sharks
Play on: Wild +140 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Wild +140

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 9 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 7-6
Against the Spread 6-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-2
Against the Spread 12-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 9-4

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 82-47-1
Against the Spread 56-72-2

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 67-62-1
Against the Spread 55-73-2

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 64-65-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Chiefs (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Vikings, 26-23
Broncos (+4, ML +175) vs. Browns, 24-19
Chargers (+4, ML +180) vs. Packers, 26-11
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +165) vs. Jets, 26-18
Ravens (+3, ML +140) vs. Patriots, 37-20

The largest favorite to cover
Bills (-10.5) vs. Redskins, 24-9
Eagles (-5) vs. Bears, 22-14
Seahawks (-4) vs. Buccaneers, 40-34 (OT)
Panthers (-3.5) vs. Titans, 30-20

Brown Out

-- The Cleveland Browns (-4) entered the season with a ton of hype, centering around the addition of WR Odell Beckham, while QB Baker Mayfield is frequently seen on commercials, while taking on critics at every turn. There is a lot of attention surrounding the Browns, and a lot of noise, but very few wins on the actualy playing field. The Denver Broncos turned to QB Brandon Allen for his first NFL start with QB Joe Flacco reportedly dealing with a neck injury which will keep him out four to six weeks. It looked like a stroke of luck for a Cleveland team desperately in need of some noise on the field. They didn't get it. It was more of the same...silly penalties and a lack of results in the red zone. Hey, at least they didn't turn the ball over, and won that battle 1-0.

Anyway, the Browns have now dropped four in a row, and they're 0-4 ATS during the span since opening 2-2 SU/ATS. The defense hasn't been up to snuff, allowing 20 or more points in six straight games, and 24 or more in each of the past five. They're now 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, posting just 11.7 PPG and 27.3 PPG allowed during that three-game span on the road.

London Falling

-- The Houston Texans (+1) made their first-ever trip to London in Week 9. They might ask the NFL to make the trip more often, as they throttled the Jacksonville Jaguars by a 26-3 victory at Wembley Stadium, moving to 6-3 SU overall, including 2-0 SU against the Jags. No DE J.J. Watt? No problem. The Texans have posted 23 or more points in each of their past five games, but they snapped a two-game mini-skid against the number. The Jags saw their record slip to 4-5 SU, but they're still a solid 5-3 ATS across the past eight games.

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board was the Detroit Lions-Oakland Raiders (51.5), and while things settled down a bit in the third quarter, both QBs Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr were tossing the pill around early and often. Both teams were poor against the pass coming in, and it showed frequently during the game. The second-highest total on the board was also a high-scoring affair.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Seattle Seahawks (51) battle was a seesaw affair with plenty of offense. There were more than 11 points in each quarter, and the game was tied 34-34 before heading to overtime where Seattle ended up with the win.

The other game with a closing total at or over 50 was the Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Chargers (50) game, which closed at exactly 50. The Pack offense never got on track, at least until a late, meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter, as the Chargers defense finally showed up.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Washington Redskins-Buffalo Bills (37) game. Buffalo's offense did their part, posting 24 points, but the defense held the 'Skins and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins to just nine points in his first NFL start. The Redskins have totaled nine or fewer points in five of the past six games, averaging 7.5 PPG. Needless to say, the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 for the 'Skins during that span.

The Cleveland Browns-Denver Broncos (39) game was the second-lowest on the big board, mainly due to the presence of Allen under center, and Denver's re-emerging defense. They scored 24, and the total inched over the mark with a late Cleveland touchdown. The only other game with a total under 40 was Indianapolis Colts-Pittsburgh Steelers (39.5). The Colts lost QB Jacoby Brissett early in the game to a knee injury, but veteran backup QB Brian Hoyer more than held his own, tossing three touchdowns. The Colts fell 26-24, but the game went well 'over'.

-- The 'over' hit in the first two primetime games of Week 9, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Dallas Cowboys-New York Giants (48) stiil to be played. The 'over' is just 8-19 (29.6%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' was a perfect 8-0 for Sunday Night Football this season, but the New England Patriots-Baltimore Ravens (44.5) game went over in the SNF game for the second consecutive weekend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Colts QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is likely to be sidelined for some game time due to what is believed to be a sprained medial collateral ligament.

-- Vikings WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) aggravated his hamstring injury and was forced back to the sldelines.

Looking Ahead - Divisional Battles

-- The Chargers and Raiders square off on Thursday night in what is expected to be the final primetime game at 'The Black Hole' before they move to Las Vegas. The Bolts are 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on Thursday, and they're 9-2-1 ATS in the past 12 games on the road while going 8-1 ATS in the past nine in the month of November. That includes their 26-11 win over the Packers in Week 9. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their past seven at home, however, including their Week 9 win against the Lions. The Bolts might be sad to see the Raiders leaving Oakland, as they're 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to the East Bay.

-- The Ravens are coming off an emotional win against the previously unbeaten Patriots, now they have to face the winless Bengals. Will there be a dropoff in intensity and focus? The Bengals are starting QB Ryan Finley, using the bye week to prep him for his first NFL start. The Ravens are 0-7 ATS in their past seven inside the division, and 0-6 ATS in the past six against losing teams. While the Bengals are 1-8 ATS in their past nine home games, they have covered eight of the past 11 against divisional foes. Baltimore hasn't covered in four straight meetings, and they're 4-10 ATS in the past 14 trips to Paul Brown Stadium. Of course, the Bengals haven't been this bad before.

-- The Lions and Bears square off in Chicago in a tale of two teams. The Lions are a pass-happy offense which cannot stop anyone defensively. The Bears are a defensive-minded side who cannot pass against anyone. Some might find it curious then that the Bears opened as three-point favorites. well, Chicago is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings, and 3-1-1 ATS in the past five home meetings with the Lions. The 'under' is also 5-2 in the past seven at Soldier Field between these combatants.

-- The lowly Falcons are back from their bye week, and they're facing a Saints team which is also coming off a rest. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in the past seven following a bye, but just 5-17 ATS in the past 22 on the road and 1-5 ATS in the past six games overall. New Orleans has covered six in a row, and they're 10-2 ATS in the past 12 following a bye week while cashing in 17 of the past 25 inside the division while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight against losing teams. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight trips to NOLA.

-- The fifth and final divisional battle will take place on Monday in a highly anticipated game between the Seahawks and unbeaten 49ers, the last unbeaten in the NFL. How many people had that prediction? The Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 on the road, while going 9-4-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings on Monday Night Football. The 49ers blasted the Browns earlier this season on MNF, and they're 27-7 ATS in their past 34 appearances on MNF. The Seahawks are 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 in this series, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven trips to San Francisco, but these 49ers are a completely different animal, and it's a good idea to ignore those trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Close Calls - Week 9
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread or total in the fourth quarter last week in Week 9 of the NFL regular season.

Every home team covered in Week 9 heading into Monday night but not without late drama in several games.

San Francisco 49ers (-10) 28, Arizona Cardinals 25 (43½): While Arizona put up a decent fight they allowed a score on the final play of the first half to fall behind 21-7. Scoring a few minutes out of the break kept the Cardinals in the game but San Francisco answered three minutes later to lead 28-14 heading into the fourth quarter. In the final frame a long Cardinals drive resulted in a field goal to trim the margin to 11, with the decision to kick due to facing 4th-and-13. That wasn’t going to be quite enough for the underdog on a spread that leaped from +7 all the way to +10. The Arizona defense held and Kyler Murray and Andy Isabella connected for 88 yards to put the Cardinals back in play for the upset. The-two-point conversion was good and it was a 3-point margin. San Francisco converted three third downs including one that was upheld on a challenge to melt the remaining clock, moving to 8-0.

Buffalo Bills (-10½) 24, Washington Redskins 9 (37): A rout seemed possible with a quick 10-0 lead for the Bills in the first quarter. Washington managed a second quarter field goal but a strong Bills kickoff return followed and it was 17-3. Washington got three more before the break to trail by 11, right near the closing spread. A productive Bills drive out of halftime was stopped on 4th-and-1 and eventually Washington added three more to trail by just eight with a spread that was as low as +9½ before climbing back up. Four consecutive punts kept the scoring in check and aided the ‘under’ before the Bills inherited great field position with about six minutes remaining. The play of the game relative to the spread was Buffalo facing 3rd-and-18 in deep field goal range. An incomplete pass and Buffalo likely punts to pin Washington back but Josh Allen connected with John Brown for 23 yards. Still ahead of the two-minute warning Buffalo wasn’t going to be able to run out the clock and eventually added a Devin Singletary touchdown to flip the spread result with just 2:21 to go. Dwayne Haskins got the Redskins near midfield before falling short on 4th-and-4 in a mediocre but perhaps slightly better than some expected performance in his first NFL start against a quality defense on the road.

Carolina Panthers (-3) 30, Tennessee Titans 20 (43): After a scoreless first quarter the Panthers scored 17 in the second and led 24-7 through three quarters. The Titans completed a 94-yard drive early in the fourth but allowed a 58-yard run to Christian McCaffrey a few minutes later to stay down by 16 as a slight underdog, though the spread was +3½ or higher much of the week. Ryan Tannehill was intercepted on Tennessee’s next drive in Carolina territory but the Panthers would miss a field goal to keep the Titans in the game. With fewer than three minutes remaining Tennessee found the end zone but didn’t get the conversion to trail by 10, leaving the door open for a spread-spoiling touchdown if they got the ball back. Only 20 seconds came off the clock on Carolina’s 3-and-out with Tennessee only needing to burn two timeouts thanks to a 2nd down pass call from the Panthers. The Titans went down the field quickly but had to waste a down to stop the clock with just over a minute remaining on 3rd down and opted for a field goal on 4th-and-3 to the relief of those on the Panthers. The kick was ultimately missed anyway but the 19-point fourth quarter did clear the total ‘over’.

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) 22, Chicago Bears 14 (41): The Eagles dominated the first half in this playoff rematch as in a week where Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense came under great scrutiny, the offense had negative total production five drives into the game and didn’t pick up a first down until the final minute of the first half. Philadelphia extended a 12-0 halftime lead to 19-0 going 84 yards after halftime but Chicago would score touchdowns on two of its next three drives to trail by five, even with a common spread on the game. A pair of punts followed before a great Carson Wentz drive, burning more than eight minutes of clock in a 16-play effort that resulted in a field goal in the final minute of the game to give the Eagles the clear win and cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (+5½) 26, Minnesota Vikings 23 (46): The line on this game was not commonly available until the weekend and with Patrick Mahomes ruled out the road favorite price kept climbing. A 10-10 tie at halftime was broken with a short-field Vikings touchdown following a Chiefs fumble on the kickoff after the break. Minnesota missed the PAT however and that allowed the Chiefs to lead by one after Damien Williams broke a 91-yard run late in the third quarter. The Chiefs added a field goal to lead by four but Minnesota went in front by three early in the fourth. The Vikings weren’t able to hold on defense however even with a huge 3rd-and-13 sack to push Harrison Butker’s tying field goal attempt to 54 yards. Still ahead of the two-minute warning Kirk Cousins went backwards on Minnesota’s chance for a go-ahead drive. A terrible punt followed as special teams issues continue to haunt Mike Zimmer with the Chiefs starting at Minnesota’s 45-yard-line. A sack on 1st down gave Minnesota a chance to get to overtime but Matt Moore connected for two solid gains and Butker was good from 44 yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) 26, Indianapolis Colts 24 (39½): A common fallacy is assuming a near-even line won’t come into play but the difference between +1 and -1 looked significant in the Colts/Steelers game much of the way with either option available on either team depending on the timing. The scoring got off a normal trajectory as Pittsburgh recovered its own fumble in the end zone late in the third quarter to take a safety instead of allowing a touchdown, trimming a 20-16 lead to 20-18. The Colts would fumble the kickoff to botch an opportunity to have good field position and despite gaining only four yards, the Steelers added three points to lead by five. With Brian Hoyer at quarterback most of the game the Colts were in the red zone midway through the third but faced a decision on 4th-and-2. Hoyer connected for the touchdown but the Colts didn’t get the two-point try as the lead was one. A big defensive pass interference call withstood review but from 1st-and-goal the Steelers had to settle for a short kick to go back in front by two with still six minutes to go. Punts were exchanged before Hoyer and the Colts got the ball back with 2:28 to go from their own 15. Pass interference would again be the central conversation with Indianapolis gaining 35 yards on a call that withstood review. Pittsburgh would also challenge for offensive pass interference later in the drive but with no change of course. Indianapolis reached field goal range but lost three yards on 3rd-and-1 with just over a minute to go. Adam Vinatieri would miss in another high profile spot from 43 yards as Pittsburgh escaped with the win.

Oakland Raiders (-3) 31, Detroit Lions 24 (51½): While both teams moved the ball well, the scoring stalled in the third quarter as the Lions settled for a short field goal to tie the game 17-17. Off-setting penalties offset a potential 3rd down stop for the Lions early in the fourth quarter and on the re-play Oakland went up 24-17. After a series of punts the Lions took advantage of good field position to tie the game with just over five minutes remaining. Oakland quickly earned 1st-and-goal as the two-minute warning approached but on 3rd-and-9 Oakland connected to go back up by seven. The Lions got two chunks of yardage on penalties but in the final minute Matthew Stafford took a sack from the 4-yard-line. Facing 3rd-and-goal from the 14, Detroit got 13 yards and Oakland held on the final play with an incomplete pass on a jump ball off play-action, with Lions fans certainly having a valid case that the defender’s contact was early.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 40, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 (50½): +6 and even briefly +6½ was available early in the week on the Buccaneers. It didn’t seem to matter with a 21-7 early lead for the road underdog. Halfway through the third quarter Seattle connected for a touchdown and a 2-point conversion to tie the game. Matching field goals followed to make it 24-24 early in the fourth before both teams had fumbles. Taking advantage of great field position Seattle took its first lead of the game with eight minutes to go on a short field goal. The Buccaneers were able to tie the game with five minutes to go. It took only three plays for Seattle to answer, hitting a 53-yard touchdown to pass up the favorite spread for the first time in the game. Jameis Winston converted a 4th down at the two-minute warning and then put Tampa Bay into the end zone in the final minute. With still 46 seconds to go, Tampa Bay kicked the PAT to tie the game. To no one’s surprise Russell Wilson was able to get the Seahawks in position to win but Jason Myers missed from 40 yards, setting up the nightmare scenario to come for Buccaneers backers. Seattle won the toss and an exhausted Buccaneers defense was picked apart. An illegal contract call gave Seattle a big first down to get into field goal range and on 3rd-and-6 the Seahawks struck for 29 yards, inevitably getting into the end zone two plays later for the win and the undeserved favorite cover for most.

Denver Broncos (+4) 24, Cleveland Browns 19 (39): Before Joe Flacco was ruled out, the Broncos were a slight favorite in this game but were +3 to +4 with Brandon Allen set for his first NFL action. Allen played well and led the Broncos to a 17-12 lead at halftime, with Denver’s defense holding Cleveland to four field goals. A Phillip Linsday run put Denver up by 12 late in the third quarter but the Browns got back within five early in the fourth. Cleveland forced a punt and had the ball back with still more than seven minutes to go. A signature drive was possible for Baker Mayfield in what has been a difficult season. The Browns reached 3rd-and-1 at the Denver 25 and kept the ball out of Mayfield’s hands with a rush from Nick Chubb losing three yards. Mayfield fell incomplete on 4th down as the Broncos held on to surpass the Browns in the ACC standings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Week 10 opening odds and early action: Book expects 49ers moneyline parlays/teasers vs. Seahawks
Patrick Everson

Nick Bosa and San Francisco are 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS) at the midway mark, heading into a key Week 10 home game against Seattle. The 49ers opened as 6.5-point favorites at The SuperBook.

An NFC West clash in the City by the Bay takes center stage for NFL Week 10. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for that game and three others, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

San Francisco puts its perfect record on the line in the Monday night game, which follows a mini-bye, as Kyle Shanahan’s squad played in the Week 9 Thursday nighter. The 49ers (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) took a 21-7 halftime lead at Arizona, then held on for a 27-24 victory as healthy 10.5-point road favorites.

The Niners are the NFL’s lone unbeaten team, after New England lost at Baltimore on Sunday night.

Seattle won five of its last six in working to keep pace with the Niners. In Week 9, the Seahawks (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) got stretched to overtime after a last-minute Tampa Bay touchdown, but got out with a 40-34 win and cover as 4-point home faves.

“We opened 49ers -6.5 and are still there,” Murray told Covers on Sunday night. “A lot of moneyline parlays and teasers are going to close with San Francisco. Seattle is not nearly as good as its record. Although in fairness, San Francisco probably isn’t either.”

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Dallas returns from its bye week after snapping a three-game SU and ATS skid in Week 8. The Cowboys (4-3 SU and ATS) rumbled over Philadelphia 37-10 laying 3 points at home.

Meanwhile, Minnesota blew an opportunity to beat a Kansas City team that was minus Patrick Mahomes in Week 9. The Vikings (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) went off as 5.5-point road favorites and lost outright 26-23 on a final-seconds field goal.

“We opened Cowboys -3 (-110) and took some Vikings money, and we are now at -3 (even),” Murray said. “We will need the Vikings by kickoff.”

Which will be in prime time, as this is the Week 10 Sunday night game.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5)

Green Bay was a popular Week 9 play with sharps and the public, but saw its four-game win streak end. The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) were 4-point road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers, yet never led in a 26-11 setback.

Carolina rebounded from a San Francisco slaughter while moving to 5-1 SU and ATS behind Kyle Allen, subbing for the injured Cam Newton. The Panthers (5-3 SU and ATS) topped Tennessee 30-20 giving 3.5 points at home in Week 9.

“We opened Packers -5 and are now at -5.5 off some bets,” Murray said. “The Packers are another team that isn’t as good as their record, and they were exposed a little this week by the Chargers.”

Los Angeles Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

At the season’s midway point, defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles finds itself looking up at two teams in the NFC West, San Francisco and Seattle. The Rams (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) had their bye in Week 9, after beating Cincinnati 24-10 as 12-point home favorites in Week 8.

Pittsburgh is doing what it can to salvage a season in which Ben Roethlisberger (elbow) was lost for the year in Week 2. The Steelers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) squeaked by Indianapolis 26-24 as 1-point home favorites, winning after the Colts missed a late field goal.

“We opened Rams -3.5 and have been pushed up to -4,” Murray said. “The Rams will be one of the most public sides next week. Books will be Steelers fans.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

107LA CHARGERS -108 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 14-43 ATS (-33.3 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (4 - 5) at OAKLAND (4 - 4) - 11/7/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS is 103-73 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-85 ATS (-39.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 40-82 ATS (-50.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 4-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 10

Trend Report

Thursday, November 7

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oakland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Oakland's last 16 games at home
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
LA Chargers is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
LA Chargers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing Oakland
LA Chargers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oakland

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10


Thursday, November 7

LA Chargers @ Oakland

Game 107-108
November 7, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
134.505
Oakland
130.969
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
Pick
48
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 10

Chargers (4-5) @ Raiders (4-4)— Chargers won last two games after a 2-5 start; they outrushed Green Bay 159-45 LW, first time since Week 2 they ran for 100+ yards. Bolts held last two foes (Chi-GB) to two TD’s on 19 drives; they split four road games TY, seven of their last eight games stayed under the total. Under Lynn, LA is 4-5-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points, 0-2-1 TY. Oakland covered four of last five games, won two of three SU at home; four of their last five games went over. Raiders allowed 24+ points in six of its last seven games. Chargers won last four series games, last three by combined score of 76-26; they won 17-16/20-6 in last two visits to Oakland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hot & Not Report - Week 10
Matt Blunt

Week of November 4th

Admittedly it was nice to take a minor step back from the chaos that is football season the past two weeks with looks at what was going on in the MLB and NBA. Last week's piece dealt with the two teams that squared off in the NBA Finals last year and discussed how both the Warriors and Raptors will likely be great long term fades this year.

Since that piece went up, Toronto's posted a 2-1 record both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), while the Warriors went 1-3 SU and ATS. Not exactly the best results, but not exactly the worst results either on a blind theory that can be continually used and considered for the next few months.

Today it's back to the football field though, as the NFL dominates this industry and that's where people want to ingest their information. And while it would be easy to include the fact that home teams on US soil have gone a perfect 12-0 ATS in Week 9, that's not where I'm going at all. That's not really actionable information going forward in my view, and you've got to trust the Giants to continue that run tonight on MNF. Not something I'm interested in.

Instead, it's a look at a couple of trends that should at least be considered for a few games over the next two weeks in the NFL, as it deals with teams in the following game after a trip to London. There is always a lot of chatter about theories for what to take for those London games, but never much about the return trip home. Hopefully these streaks can help you break down those return games a little better.

Who's Hot

Taking 'overs' for NFL teams in their first game back after a London game: 8-2 O/U last two years; including 4-0 O/U this season.

Taking 'overs' in London games tends to be a popular refrain, but it's actually the following game for these teams that is the better time to look that way. The 'over' is 8-2 in post-London games the past two years, with the average total points being scored clocking in at 53.9 points per game. Not one of those games has finished with fewer than 42 points in that span, and if you are looking for team totals, the post-London team averages 24 PPG themselves in this role. In eight of those 10 games they've put up at least 23 points as well.

You can break it down even further in terms of being home or away in these post-London games as well, with teams at home going a perfect 3-0 O/U the past two years, and road sides going 5-2 O/U. In Week 10 we've got one team that fits each scenario, as the Cincinnati Bengals are at home hosting a Ravens team that's coming off a huge SNF win over New England, while the Los Angeles Rams are out on the road visiting Pittsburgh. And we can't leave out in Week 11 that Houston's on the road in Baltimore, while Jacksonville's on the road against Indianapolis. So we might see a few more Ravens game sail 'over' the number in the coming weeks like last night's win over the Patriots did.

In terms of finding tangible reasons why these 'overs' after a London game are coming in, the most obvious would be that these teams are rested and prepared as they are coming off a bye in every instance.

Having two weeks to prepare for a team in the NFL is a distinct advantage as long as coaching staffs and players make the most of their time, and generally speaking it will show up on the offensive end. After all, the name of the game is to score more points then the other guy, so you might as well spend more of your prep time trying to do that.

In terms of this year's numbers alone, three of the four teams coming off a London game have seen their next contests finish with 60+ points, and only the Carolina Panthers managed to put up fewer then 23 points themselves. However, even with these high point totals and teams scoring 24 points per game on average, that doesn't necessary equate to SU or ATS wins the following game as...

Who's Not

NFL teams in a post-London game are 3-6-1 SU and ATS the past two seasons; 0-3 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS in 2019

This was the more surprising part of the findings when backtracking this stuff, as you would think a post-bye scenario would lead to teams putting up more wins they they are. The fact that not one of these post-London teams has come close to covering the spread this year was very surprising, but still not as bad as the fact that three of the four of them had lost that following game by double-digits. Chicago got smoked at home by New Orleans (36-25), Oakland got smoked by Green Bay (42-24), and Carolina got smoked by San Francisco (51-13). If that pattern holds true in Week 10, you've got to figure that Cincinnati Bengals fans should probably get into the hard liquor rather early next Sunday with Baltimore coming to town.

Furthermore, if you take the push out of the equation (Jacksonville's 29-26 loss @ Indianapolis last year as +3 road dogs), all the other nine games are correlated in that the point spread hasn't mattered. Pick the SU winner and the ATS victory follows, and all three of the SU and ATS winners closed as either pick'em or underdogs – Seattle at (+3) in Detroit in Week 8 of 2018, LA Chargers at (pk) in Seattle in Week 9 of 2018, and Tennessee (+4.5) at Dallas in Week 9 of 2018 as well.

Only the Bengals are underdogs this week and it's tough to see them winning SU vs Baltimore, especially when all three of those previous winners were out on the road. That's where the Rams find themselves this week, but they are currently laying chalk (-4), but keep this in mind for Week 11 when the Jaguars and Texans are both out on the road and likely both catching points against Indy and Baltimore respectively.

Do with this information what you will, but don't be surprised if these four post-London games over the next two weeks have some points being put up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 7

LA CHARGERS at OAKLAND (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chargers have won and covered last four in series, and have covered last four at Coliseum. Bolts 13-4-1 vs. spread last 18 reg season games outside LA city limits. Chargers “under” 9-2 last 11 reg season.
Tech Edge: Chargers and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 10:

Road Teams: 75-58-2 ATS
Home Teams: 58-75-2 ATS

Favorites: 57-76-2 ATS
Underdogs: 76-57-2 ATS

Home Faves: 35-53-2 ATS
Home Dogs: 23-22 ATS

Road Faves: 22-23 ATS
Road Dogs: 53-35-2 ATS

O/U: 65-70

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Saints 6-2 ATS
t1. Rams 6-2 ATS
t3. Patriots 6-3 ATS
t3. Packers 6-3 ATS
t3. Cardinals 6-3 ATS
t6. 49ers, Bills, Panthers, Cowboys, Raiders, & Steelers Tied at 5-3 ATS


NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

t28. Jets 2-6 ATS
t28. Falcons 2-6 ATS
t28. Buccaneers 2-6 ATS
t28. Browns 2-6 ATS
t28. Bears 2-6 ATS
t26. Redskins 3-6 ATS
t26. Giants 3-6 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nick Foles has regained his job as the Jaguars’ starting QB.

Gardner Minshew has resumed his spot as a backup.

Cam Newton has been placed on IR, likely ending his season and potentially his time in Carolina.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 10 odds: Take your time with those Tampa Bay bets
Jason Logan

Tampa Bay opened as big as -6 hosting Arizona and has watched that line drop as low as -4, with money on the road underdog in NFL Week 10.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 10 board, so download the new Covers Live App and punch these odds into your line alerts.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: BUFFALO BILLS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3, 40)

Have you seen that image of Baker Mayfield in the postgame press conference after last week’s loss to Denver? Of course, you have. That meme-inspiring mug shot is the personification of how the betting public views the Browns right now. And it ain’t pretty.

Cleveland is sitting as a field-goal favorite hosting the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, and that line is swinging towards the road team. There are some books that have already ticked off the key number to -2.5 (and a handful that actually went to -2) while others are on their way, with discounted juiced on Cleveland -3 trying to stick to the field goal.

If you like the Bills in this one, grab them +3 if you can. Buffalo has bookended a bad loss at home to Philadelphia in Week 8 with cupcake wins over the Dolphins and Redskins, but is 3-0 ATS as a visitor in 2019.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51.5)

The Buccaneers are back home for the first time in almost 50 days in Week 10 and welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Raymond James Sunday. Oddsmakers sent out Tampa Bay as big as a 6-point home chalk and that has been bet down to -4.5 with money on the underdog.

Now, the Bucs have had some bad luck in the past two games. Tampa Bay was robbed of a vital scoop-and-score at Tennessee in Week 8 and got hosed on a similar call in its overtime loss to Seattle last Sunday. This team could easily be on a two-game winning streak and this spread would look much different.

Arizona put up a good fight versus San Francisco and has a mini bye due to that Thursday outing in Week 9. Even after the move to -4.5 (and -4 at select markets), some books are slimming the vig on Tampa Bay and at that dead number, a sudden jolt to -3.5 isn’t out of the question. In you’re backing the Buccos, play the waiting game.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS UNDER 43.5

The status of Colts QB Jacoby Brissett will have a large impact on this number, after getting his knee and ankle twisted up in Week 9. Brissett is playing well – safe but well – for Indianapolis in the wake of Andrew Luck’s sudden retirement, but this offense is still very much about the run (46.7 percent rushing plays).

Given his importance to the Colts’ playoff chances and the fact that this week’s opponent is Miami – the red-hot Fins, I should add – the team will likely lean to resting Brissett, bringing out backup QB Brian Hoyer to hand off a lot.

Once Brissett is officially announced out of action, the public will overreact to his absence and walk this total down a few more points. If you like the Under in this one, bet it now at 43.5. The Dolphins offense is still a mess, just lost RB Mark Walton to a suspension, and Indy will ground and pound in what should be a very uneventful afternoon.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: LOS ANGELES RAMS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS OVER 44

This non-conference clash opened with the Over/Under as high as 45.5 and has watched a point and a half chopped off with early money on the Under. The Rams are coming off a bye week and suffocated a pair bad teams – Atlanta and Cincinnati – to 10 points apiece in their last two outings.

The Steelers defense has looked solid since Week 4, giving up just 16.8 points per game over their last five contests. Also working in Pittsburgh’s favor could be the forecast, which is calling for a little “Guns N’ Roses” late on Sunday: cold November rain. That’s a far cry from the sun and surf of southern California.

Los Angeles has put up some sizable numbers on the road this season, averaging 28 points as a visitor in 2019, and while a lot will be made of QB Jared Goff’s career home/road splits, the production isn’t that different to warrant an auto-Under play. If you’re thinking about the Over in this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, play it cool and see how low the total will go before pulling the trigger.