Sunday 11-17-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEPHEN DeANGELO

For Sunday’s freebie in the NFL, we’ll take a shot with the Vikings as big home favorites against Denver.



I acknowledge that this is a potential flat spot for Minnesota, which is not only coming off last Sunday night’s impressive 28-24 victory at Dallas but this is the team’s final game before its long-awaited bye. Still, I’m confident the Vikings won’t have much trouble blowing out the Broncos here. That’s because with the exception of a 16-6 loss at Chicago in Week 4, Minnesota has throttled every inferior opponent it has faced this year: Home wins of 28-12 over the Falcons, 34-14 over the Raiders, 38-20 over the Eagles and 19-9 over the Redskins, and road triumphs of 28-10 over the Giants and 42-30 over the Lions.



The Broncos do come into this game fresh off their bye, which was preceded by a 24-19 home win over the Browns. They’re also 4-1 ATS in their last five (3-1 ATS as a dog). That said, Denver has faced only two teams this season that are the caliber of the Vikings, and the Broncos got whipped in both: 27-16 loss at Green Bay and 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs.



And while Denver QB Brandon Allen was respectable in his first career NFL start two weeks ago (12-for-20, 193 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs vs. Cleveland), he’s in unchartered territory here: first NFL road game against, in a raucous dome, against a top-tier defense that ranks in the top 8 in the league in points allowed (18.2, 5th), sacks (29, 8th) and forced turnovers (15, tied-5th).



Finally, while the Vikings do indeed have their bye on deck, history shows that’s not much of a concern: Minnesota has covered 10 straight games prior to their bye, and they’ve beaten the number by an average of 8 points!

4* VIKINGS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHRIS JORDAN

My free winner for Sunday is on the physical Chicago Bears against the Los Angeles Rams.

I am not getting too long-winded with this one, as it's real simple. The Rams are losing offensive linemen as quick as trees are losing leaves in November. And the fall is coming quickly, pun intended.

Los Angeles' season is unraveling around them, and on Monday it was delivered even worse news, with center Brian Allen being listed out for the season. Now they face a ferocious defensive front just looking for a positive outing, without three starting offensive linemen, and off a 17-12 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Game film won't hide how to defeat the Rams, who have dropped four of six games overall. Chicago's defense is ranked ninth in the NFL, and after a 20-13 victory over Detroit, the Bears are 4-5 with seven games to prove they belong in the playoffs.

It's not out of the question when you look at their schedule, but they need to start this week with an outright win on the road.

Whether they get it or not remains to be seen, but they will stay inside a very big number.

And as I always insist, with football underdogs in this range, we're buying half points. And if this game is in between +6 and +7 points, I want you purchasing the half point up.

2* BEARS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (465) Houston Texans at (466) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 17, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Houston Texans 4.0 (-108)

Though Baltimore’s sensational 2nd-year QB Lamar Jackson is a legit NFL Player of the Year candidate, still interested taking more than a FG with rested Houston, now sitting alone atop the AFC South Division following Indy’s upset loss. Jackson might not run over the fierce Texan front seven, yielding 84 ypg rushing. Houston’s high-powered attack (3rd in total O), expertly orchestrated by unfazed, strong-armed & deadeye QB Deshaun Watson (70%; 18 TDP, 5 ints.)—who’s getting improved pass protection—will fully exploit tough RB Carlos Hyde (704 YR 4.7ypc) & future HOFer WR DeAndre Hopkins (68 grabs). That balanced Texan arsenal capable of keeping pace with the Raven attack, facing a Baltimore D with only 14 sacks & 11 takeaways. Moreover, Houston 6-2 last 8 as an underdog & 8-2-1 vs. spread last 11 away from home. And Ravens certainly nothing special at M&T Bank Stadium, going 2-7-1 last 10 vs the number. This one goes to the wire.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (465) Houston Texans at (466) Baltimore Ravens
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 17, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Total Over 51.0 (-101)

3% Take Houston – Baltimore OVER (#465-466)

The NFL has had a handful of elite QB’s for more than 15 years. Peyton Manning retired. Ben Roethlisberger is hurt. Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees are all in various stages of decline. Aaron Rogers turns 36 in December. Even Russell Wilson is on the wrong side of 30 now. This league NEEDS new, younger superstar quarterbacks.

Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson both have elite level talent throwing to their playmakers, and the NFL would like nothing more than to turn these two guys into household names, the next Brady, Brees or Rodgers. Both of these offenses have shown plenty of explosiveness and quick strike, big play ability; exactly what Over bettors are looking for. Just as importantly, both defenses have shown signs of vulnerability – the Ravens statistical profile is mediocre at best; the Texans are dealing with injury concerns with their pass rush and their secondary. On a crisp Fall afternoon in Baltimore, expect fireworks! Take the Over!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOBBY LIGS

Event: (471) Cincinnati Bengals at (472) Oakland Raiders
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 17, 2019 4PM EST
Play: Cincinnati Bengals 10.0 (-108)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SEAN MURPHY
NFL | Nov 17, 2019
Bills vs. Dolphins
Bills-6½

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Bills bandwagon has all but cleared following last week's loss in Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off shocking back-to-back wins. I feel that gives us solid value with Buffalo as a road favorite of less than a touchdown on Sunday afternoon. To put it simply, I'm not sure the Fins will score enough to keep this game competitive. This is a smash spot for Bills QB Josh Allen, who should be able to run (and throw) at will against a very beatable, albeit seemingly improved Dolphins defense. The cupboard is virtually bare when it comes to the Miami offense, especially since dealing away RB Kenyan Drake. Look for the Bills to harass Fins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick into a couple of key mistakes down the stretch, ultimately helping to secure the win (and cover) for Buffalo. Take Buffalo (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

Dallas at Detroit 1:00 ET

Lions (+) over Cowboys- There is no doubt in my mind where the action will come in this matchup with or without Matthew Stafford no matter how high the line climbs. Most will look for the Cowboys to recover from their Sunday night loss to the Vikings. Dallas at 5-4 has the tie-breaker lead over the Eagles in the East but after opening 3-0 with wins over Giants, Redskins and Dolphins (NFL's 3 worst) they have lost 4-of-6 with a win over NYG. I'm no big fan of Patricia's but I am not impressed with the Pokes. Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings and the dog is 5-1 ATS in the last five. Take DETROIT!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, November 17, 2019

NFL (469) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (470) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Take: (469) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Reason: Your free play for Sunday, November 17, 2019 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles. Your free play is on the Patriots.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, November 17 is:

St. Louis +7 over Seton Hall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY WESTON

The same way I wasn't convinced the New York Jets victory over the Dallas Cowboys meant much, or the Los Angeles Chargers demolition of the Green Bay Packers was indicative of either team, I don't think the New Orleans Saints are as bad as we saw on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

I do, however, believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are as inconsistent as they've been all season, and will be the punching bag for a frustrated Saints team that was stymied by the Falcons.

Remember, Atlanta made a change with its defensive personnel prior to Sunday's game, so the Falcons played with a bit more vigor after their bye week. I warned Jack Brayman when he told me he loved the Saints, especially since every damn suicide pool out there had them as well. That was a trap if I ever saw one.

I got trapped laying too many with the Buccaneers, and won't get caught this week.

New Orleans will be out to avenge the loss, and it'll begin with correcting mistakes it can control. For instance, the Saints committed 12 penalties for 90 yards on Sunday, and half of those infractions produced Falcons first downs while another four extended drives on third or fourth down.

The Saints will also do a better job of protecting Drew Brees. Prior to the game the Falcons had registered an NFL low seven sacks. They put Brees on his back six times and kept the Saints out of the end zone.

Just because the Bucs beat Arizona, keep in mind quarterback Kyler Murray threw for 324 yards and three TDs to Christian Kirk, including a 15-yard scoring strike that put the Cardinals up by four midway through the fourth quarter.

Tampa Bay has the 24th ranked defense overall, and absolute worst passing defesne, allowing 298.9 yards per game through the air.

Huge bounce back for the Saints, who win this by double digits.

2* SAINTS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB VALENTINO

Sunday free play winner for this Week Eleven slate is to take the generous points the oddsmakers are giving to the Denver Broncos as they keep it closer than expected at the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Minnesota showed up big last Sunday night in their 28-24 upset win as the +3 point road dogs in Dallas to improve to 7-3 for the season as Mike Zimmer's team stayed within one game of the division-leading Green Bay Packers who will have to play at San Francisco this Sunday afternoon.

No doubt the Vikings should take care of business at home in this spot, but my doubt here centers on whether or not Minny can cover this big number?

Denver is coming off of their bye-week, and when last we saw Vic Fangio's team they held on for the home upset win over Cleveland to improve to 3-2 straight up over their last 5 games contested. The Broncos also happen to be 4-1 against the spread over those 5 games, so don't think for one minute that grabbing this very generous spot is a waste of time, especially with what I am about to tell you about the Norsemen.

Minnesota stepped up big as I mentioned against Dallas and they will be heading to their bye after this game. When they come back to live action it will be on Monday night, December 2nd in Seattle. This is a tricky, tricky spot for the home team as they know full well they should win, but I can see this one being a little closer than expected.

The Vikings have failed their last pair of games this year when favored, and that includes their lone try as a double-digit favorite in their 19-9 home win over the Washington Redskins back on October 24th.

I see this as another spot where Minnesota does just enough to win - but NOT cover this game.

Take the Broncos plus the points.

1* DENVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MITCHELL NEWMAN

Sunday's comp play will be for Buffalo and Miami to hold Under the total in their second of two meetings this afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium.

When the Dolphins visited the Bills back on October 20th the teams combined for a "massive" 52 points and an easy Over, but that Over has been the exception for both teams and NOT the norm this year.

Buffalo heads down to the Sunshine State with just 53 combined points in their 3 games since their 31 point home outburst versus Miami, and 2 of those 3 games have held Under the total. For the season, Sean McDermott's team has held Under in 7 of their 9 games played.

Miami has been offensively-challenged pretty much all year long and last Sunday's 16-12 second win in a row at Indianapolis illustrates that point, as Brian Flores' team made it 6 Unders in their 9 games played for the campaign.

The Dolphins have been held to 21 points or fewer in 8 of their 9 games this season, while the Bills have scored 21 points or less in 6 of their 9 games for the year.

The last pair of series meetings between the teams in Miami have both held Under the total, so rather that look for another 52 points like these teams combined for just about a month ago, going to play this second showdown Under the total.

3* BUFFALO-MIAMI UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JACK BRAYMAN

My free winner for Sunday is on the Baltimore Ravens laying the number to the Houston Texans, in a battle of two of the most exciting football players in the NFL. Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are both putting up MVP-like numbers, and both are trying to will their respective teams into the playoffs.

This one being in Baltimore, I have to side with Jackson and the Ravens.

Jackson is in after completing 15 of 17 pass attempts (88.2 percent) for three touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 158.3 rating, the highest attainable mark, and added a career-long 47-yard touchdown run in the Ravens' 49-13 win over Cincinnati.

Jackson, who also had a 158.3 rating in Week 1, became the second quarterback to record a passer rating of 158.3 (minimum 10 attempts) in multiple games within a single season in NFL history, joining Ben Roethlisberger, who did it twice in 2007.

It's quite clear Ravens coach John Harbaugh's newly written playbook is a best seller, as it's centered around Jackson and his capabilities.

Baltimore has won five in a row, including that 37-20 rout of the New England Patriots two weeks back.

On the other side of the ball, something tells me Watson could have some trouble against Baltimore's ball hawking cornerback Marcus Peters, who took an interception 89 yards for a touchdown against the Bengals.

Baltimore is the first team since 1970 to record a defensive touchdown of at least 65 yards in three consecutive games, after Marlon Humphrey's 70-yard fumble rumble against New England and Peters' 67-yard interception return against Seattle on Oct. 20.

Houston is a good team, I won't take anything away from it. But the Ravens are better right now.

5* RAVENS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Saints
Jets
49ers
Bears

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DWAYNE BRYANT

Event: (451) Dallas Cowboys at (452) Detroit Lions
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: November 17, 2019 1PM EST
Play: Total Over 47.0 (-110)

BET SIZE = 1% of bankroll

The Cowboys own the NFL's #1 Offensive DVOA, while the Detroit defense sits at #25. The Lions offense weighs in with a #12 Offensive DVOA, while the Dallas D is ranked 20th in DVOA. Most of Detroit's Offensive DVOA was earned with Matthew Stafford at QB. But Jeff Driskel will once again be starting for the injured Stafford. I wouldn't downgrade Detroit's offense too much, as what Driskel lacks in the passing game he makes up for with his scrambling ability.

These are also two of the faster paced teams in the league. Dallas ranks #5 in pace (fewest seconds between plays), while Detroit sits at #7.

After seeing RB Ezekiel Elliott get stuffed by the Vikings last Sunday night, I expect the Cowboys to make an extra effort to get Zeke going early here. And that shouldn't be a problem, as Dallas' O-line has a huge edge over Detroit's D-line. Zeke's success will open things up in the passing game (play action), and also some RPO for QB Dak Prescott. While I can't lay a TD with Dallas on the road, I don't mind putting a little on this game creeping over the number (Dallas has given up late garbage-time TDs more than once this season).

PLAY OVER.