Service Plays Saturday 11/30/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...3-NFL-Football

College Football
http://www.investwithsports.com/newf...-NCAA-Football

Baseball
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College Basketball
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NBA
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NHL
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vincent Rizzo

top pick Alabama

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 7:05 PM
CLEMSON -27
CLEMSON @ SOUTH CAROLINA | 11/30 | 12:00 PM EST
The Tigers are on a mission, trying to make a statement to the CFP Selection Committee as the season winds down. It's up to them to continue to win big in order to secure a spot in the top four. Right now, Clemson is playing as good as anyone in the country as it meets a struggling South Carolina squad.

93-54-1 IN LAST 148 CFB ATS PICKS | +3440
5-1-1 IN LAST 7 CLEM ATS PICKS | +386

3-1 IN LAST 4 SC ATS PICKS | +190

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 5:54 PM
OVER 52
OHIO ST. @ MICHIGAN | 11/30 | 12:00 PM EST
With Michigan’s offense playing at its best right now, I’m looking for the Over trend to continue here as the last six meetings have gone over the total. Both defenses have been stingy all season, but I like the offenses to shine here. It might not resemble Ohio State's 62-39 win last year, but it still gets over what is the same total from that contest.

12-9 IN LAST 21 CFB PICKS | +219
5-2 IN LAST 7 MICH O/U PICKS | +279


Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 5:45 PM
MICHIGAN +8.5
OHIO ST. @ MICHIGAN | 11/30 | 12:00 PM EST
Ohio State has beaten Michigan seven straight times, but I don’t remember the Wolverines offense performing at its highest level of the season coming into their annual meeting. While the Buckeyes have failed to cover back-to-back games after an 8-0 run ATS, Michigan has covered its last five and seven of eight.

12-9 IN LAST 21 CFB PICKS | +219
2-1 IN LAST 3 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +90

2-1 IN LAST 3 MICH ATS PICKS | +80

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Barrett Sallee

FLORIDA ST. +17
FLORIDA ST. @ FLORIDA | 11/30 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 12:42 PM
Seminoles running back Cam Akers has been banged up all season, but got a break last week when he sat out the win over Alabama State. Now that he's rested, he will be able to have enough success against the Florida defense to at least keep this one manageable. I have my doubts that Florida's offense can turn this one into a shootout.

38-23-2 IN LAST 63 CFB PICKS | +1261
3-0-1 IN LAST 4 FLA ATS PICKS | +300

GEORGIA ST. +7.5
GEORGIA ST. @ GA. SOUTHERN | 11/30 | 6:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 12:40 PM
Panthers running back Tra Barnett has been lights out this year with 1,336 yards and 11 touchdowns, and will have enough success against the Sun Belt's best rushing defense to keep this one close. It'll come down to the last possession in one of the biggest rivalry games in Group of Five football.

38-23-2 IN LAST 63 CFB PICKS | +1261
NOTRE DAME -14.5
NOTRE DAME @ STANFORD | 11/30 | 4:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 12:33 PM
The Fighting Irish have developed a pretty potent passing attack thanks to quarterback Ian Book and receiver Chase Claypool. That duo will help the Irish put up at least 28 points, and the Stanford offense isn't explosive enough even break double digits.

38-23-2 IN LAST 63 CFB PICKS | +1261

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
YESTERDAY 9:14 AM
MICHIGAN +8.5
OHIO ST. @ MICHIGAN | 11/30 | 12:00 PM EST
My model says that the Wolverines cover the spread 51 percent of the time, so you're getting good value playing Michigan at this point spread. The Wolverines are on a four-game winning streak during which they've scored an average of 41.5 points. They've covered the spread in each of their last five games and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams. Take Michigan.

19-14 IN LAST 33 CFB ATS PICKS | +353
14-2 IN LAST 16 OHIOST ATS PICKS | +1180

2-1 IN LAST 3 MICH ATS PICKS | +86

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt
THE CZAR OF THE PLAYBOOK
YESTERDAY 6:03 PM
FLORIDA ST. +17.5
FLORIDA ST. @ FLORIDA | 11/30 | 7:30 PM EST
This is one of my favorite rivalries in college football, and even if it isn't as flashy as in years past, there is a lot to be interested in. The tailbacks lead the way in FSU’s Cam Akers, and Florida's Lamical Perine. With the running games being the focus, I can see this one being a close contest.

93-54-1 IN LAST 148 CFB ATS PICKS | +3440
13-2 IN LAST 15 FSU ATS PICKS | +1085

8-3 IN LAST 11 FLA ATS PICKS | +471

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Josh Nagel

GEORGIA -28
GEORGIA @ GEORGIA TECH | 11/30 | 12:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 8:39 PM
This might normally seem a like a potential flat spot for the Bulldogs ahead of their meeting with LSU in the SEC title game. But they have plenty of motivation to put on a strong dress rehearsal against Georgia Tech. They can work on refining an inconsistent offense that must be efficient in order to beat the Tigers. There's also a strong chance that their rugged defense will hold Georgia Tech out of the end zone. if this is the case, it's difficult to imagine the Yellow Jackets sticking within the sizable number.

60-42-3 IN LAST 105 CFB PICKS | +1349
9-0 IN LAST 9 UGA ATS PICKS | +900

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph michaels (cal sports)

5% play Notre Dame -14 CFB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin CFB

5% LSU -17
4% army +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren Sharp: Army +3 0.75U

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

saturday

8-wisconsin-3
5-alabama-3
4-nebraska+5.5
3-v.tech-2.5
3-navy-8.5
3-ariz+13.5
3-uab-3

[Hombre de Burro]

ESPN+:
Every week during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.


Here are their best bets for the 14th full week of the college football season:


Season ATS records:
Connelly record: 29-12-2 (4-0 last week)
Steele record: 29-38-1 (1-4 last week)
Johnson record: 33-25-1 (0-2 last week)
Kezirian record: 45-34-1 (4-2 last week)


Note: Lines displayed are Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.


Friday's games
Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5) at Virginia Cavaliers
Connelly: In this space so far this season, I have successfully picked UMass and Rutgers to cover. Now I'm going to make my riskiest pick yet: I'm picking Virginia to cover a +2.5 line against Virginia Tech, which is very nearly like saying, "I'm picking Virginia to beat Virginia Tech," something the Hoos haven't done since 2003. It's terrifying, but hear me out.
Can you throw out the records during college football Rivalry Week?
1. The numbers back me up ... sort of. Tech has surged since getting its doors blown off by Duke midseason; the Hokies have covered in six consecutive games and have risen from 75th to 42nd in SP+. However, unlike some teams experiencing midseason surges, SP+ has had a pretty good read on the Hokies. It has projected them to cover in four of the past five games and is therefore 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. So when it says that this line is an overreaction and disagrees with it pretty significantly (there's a 6.5-point difference between SP+ and the midweek line), I'm going to listen. Plus, SP+ is hitting 58% against the midweek spread when it disagrees with Vegas between six and nine points.
2. Hey man, it's in the prophecy. The ACC Coastal was destined to have seven different champions in seven years, and we've had six in six. Virginia's the only one left. And if prophecies don't sway you to put your actual money on the line, then refer back to reason No. 1. It's pretty good, I think.
Pick: Virginia +2.5


Miami RedHawks at Ball State Cardinals (-3.5)
Steele: Chuck Martin is 1-11 ATS in nonconference play the past three years but is 23-7 his past 30 MAC games and on a 12-3 ATS run the past 15 MAC games. Last week, the RedHawks had clinched the East, went through the motions against Akron and won by only three points. They have had nine days off since then and need to regain momentum before next week's MAC championship game. The past four weeks, Ball State has allowed 521 yards per game on defense. These two have faced four common opponents in MAC play, and while the RedHawks have outgained those four foes by 21 yards per game, the Cardinals have been outgained by 116 yards per game. Ball State is playing on a short week with just six days' rest, and the visitor is 9-3 straight up the past 12 meetings.
ATS pick: Miami +3.5


Iowa Hawkeyes (-6) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Johnson: As evidenced by last week's Iowa game against Illinois -- and every other game Kirk Ferentz has coached -- the Hawkeyes do just enough to get by with a win. I had bet Iowa early in the week at -12 and -12.5 and was pumped come kickoff Saturday when the line was -15 in the majority of the market. It never really came close despite the Hawkeyes opening the game with their only touchdown drive. They just don't have an aggressive-enough game plan to blow competent teams out. I also think the Cornhuskers' offense and pace of play can give Iowa fits (they will be the fastest team the Hawkeyes will have faced this season). My projection is Nebraska +2.9 anyway, so I'm taking the six points in a game the Cornhuskers need to win to reach a bowl game for the first time under Scott Frost.
Pick: Nebraska +6


Saturday's games
Alabama Crimson Tide (-3.5, 50) at Auburn Tigers
Johnson: There's not much to this one outside of my projections making it pick-em and the market offering +3.5. I know about all of the playoff implications for Alabama and its "win it for Tua" mentality, but Mac Jones is a downgrade under center, and going into Jordan-Hare Stadium in this rivalry matchup will be the wildest atmosphere he has ever played in.
There is nothing the Tigers would like more than to officially eliminate the Crimson Tide from playoff consideration. Auburn has faced the toughest schedule in the country and is better defensively than Alabama despite it (the teams rank ninth and 17th, respectively). I'll take the 3.5 points with the home team and better defense. War Eagle.
Pick: Auburn +3.5


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-16.5) at Stanford Cardinal
Kezirian: We see plenty of one-sided rivalry affairs, and I think we are headed for one on The Farm. Stanford just lost to its true rival, Cal, last weekend and now is guaranteed to miss a bowl game for the first time since 2008, Jim Harbaugh's second season in Palo Alto. Furthering this team's rarity, the Cardinal currently rank 69th in offensive efficiency and 88th in defensive efficiency, the school's lowest defensive ranking since ESPN began calculating the metric in 2005. In short, this is an outlier season for David Shaw, plagued with injuries, that finally ends Saturday. As for matching up with the Fighting Irish, Stanford just lacks the necessary firepower to hang with a Notre Dame team that is beating up inferior teams, defeating each of its past three opponents by at least 30 points. I am somewhat concerned about heavy rain in the forecast and how it could produce a low-scoring game. But I'm still backing the Irish because I believe in their ability to finish strong and position themselves for a New Year's Six bowl.
Pick: Notre Dame -16.5


Army Black Knights at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-2.5)
Kezirian: This play is all about the situational handicap. Hawai'i just clinched the Mountain West's West Division and secured a spot in next week's conference championship game for the first time since joining the MWC eight years ago. How much do you think the team wants to prepare for Army's unique triple-option flexbone offense? I am anticipating the Rainbow Warriors want no part of it, given 20th-ranked Boise State awaits them in the conference title game. I think focus and preparation are a major concern, and we might even see some key defensive players sit out the second half or not even dress because defending Army's blocking schemes is more of an injury concern than that of conventional offenses. Additionally, Hawai'i already struggles against the run, ranking 121st out of 130 FBS teams in yards allowed per rush attempt. I expect an unfocused Hawai'i team and for the Black Knights to move the ball with ease.
Pick: Army +2.5


Steele: The Black Knights are fresh off a bye and need to get to six wins. Last season, Army held Hawai'i to 362 total yards, and Army's defense allows just 324 yards per game this season. Traditionally, an option offense gets more potent as the season goes on, and Army is averaging 490 yards per game total offense and 5.9 yards per carry the past four weeks. Like Doug mentioned, Hawai'i has the Mountain West title game next week in Boise, Idaho, and in between those two tough games has to prepare for the option and cut blocking of Army. The Warriors yielded 353 rush yards and 6.9 YPC earlier this season against an option team in Air Force. The rest, situation and need to reach six wins all line up with Army.
ATS pick: Army +2.5


Johnson: This one is easy for me. How is a Hawai'i defense that gave up 56 to Air Force when it saw the option earlier this season -- and ranks 121st against the run on the season -- going to suddenly learn how to defend it the week after clinching its first-ever Mountain West division crown with the championship game on deck? Army is coming off its bye week with extra preparation time and rest, which is even more helpful given the lengthy travel to the island. Hawai'i's strength is attacking through the air offensively, and the forecast calls for 18-23 mph winds. An Army victory puts the Black Knights in a bowl game, and I think they get it done.
Pick: Army +2.5


Indiana Hoosiers (-6.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
Connelly: In both 2017 and 2018, Indiana started the season reasonably strong, then got pummeled by the Big Ten East's big boys and faded. The Hoosiers headed into their huge rivalry game against Purdue each season needing a victory for bowl eligibility and lost.
Here are two reasons why history won't repeat this season:
1. Indiana's already clinched a bowl! The Hoosiers started 7-2 and peaked at 19th in SP+. They've dropped two in a row to heavyweights (they nearly took down Penn State, then got drubbed by Michigan) and are fully on Slump Watch now, but the pressure of reaching the postseason is already off the table at least.
2. Purdue is just not very good. The Boilermakers are on their 17th quarterback (OK, fourth), star receiver Rondale Moore is doubtful and the defense isn't good enough. Purdue is 0-5 against SP+ top-40 teams this season, with an average scoring margin of minus-17. The 6.5-point line is Indiana-friendly, and SP+ projects the Hoosiers to win by 12.1. That gives us a little bit of a slump cushion.
Pick: Indiana -6.5


Wisconsin Badgers (-3) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Connelly: This line surprised me a bit. Minnesota has covered against the midweek line in seven of its past eight games, and the Golden Gophers' only blemish was a tight game in the Upset Hell known as Iowa City. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has failed to cover in four of its past five. If anything, I expected to find a little bit of value on Wisconsin's side here.
Instead, we get to pick the home 'dog. And if you're a fan of short-term trend data, that's an exciting thing. So far this season, road teams favored by three or fewer points are 17-34 (33%) against the midweek spread, and SP+ is 31-19-1 ATS (62%) picking these games. When SP+ is picking the home underdog, then, that feels like Best Bet territory to me.
Pick: Minnesota +3


Tulane Green Wave at SMU Mustangs (-3.5)
Connelly: Historically, a 3.5-point road underdog covers about 54% of the time, and in the short term, SP+ is 16-7 against the midweek spread picking games with this line. (It's picked the underdog 15 of 23 times, and it's picking Tulane here.) So this is a pretty friendly situation to begin with.
The depth of the American Athletic Conference has begun to drown Tulane a bit; the Green Wave have lost four of five to fall to 6-5 overall, but all four losses were to teams that SP+ likes more than SMU (Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF), and three were by a touchdown or less. They still rank 39th overall despite the record.
At the same time, SMU is kind of stumbling toward the finish line. The Mustangs needed tight wins over teams far worse than Tulane (Tulsa, Houston) to reach 8-0, and they've lost two of three since. Both losses were by a touchdown, too, but they've sunk to 50th in SP+, which is treating this game like a toss-up. Maybe Senior Day, or the possible return of receiver Reggie Roberson Jr. (he's listed as questionable), can spark something here, but even with a couple of Tulane running backs banged up, I like the Green Wave's chances here, especially with the friendly line.
Pick: Tulane +3.5


Miami Hurricanes (-9) at Duke Blue Devils
Connelly: Miami has had probably the strangest season of any good-on-paper team since Notre Dame went 4-8 in 2016. That season, the Fighting Irish managed to finish 18th in SP+ because of the fluky nature of the losses themselves -- they were 1-7 in one-score finishes, and even that doesn't describe some of the randomness they were dealing with.
The Hurricanes' record isn't as bad: They are 3-5 in one-score finishes and 6-5 overall. But per my postgame win expectancy number -- in which I take all the key predictive metrics from a given game, toss them into the air, and say, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- they have managed to lose four games with a postgame win expectancy of 70% or higher. Even '16 Notre Dame lost only two such games.


SP+ has stubbornly continued to believe in the Canes, then, believing that these crazy losses are indeed the result of randomness and continuing to rank them in the 20s. If it is right about that, then this game is a slam-dunk Best Bet. Duke is crumbling to the ground, having lost five games in a row (average scoring margin: minus-22.6) and four of five against the midweek spread. The Blue Devils have fallen from 44th to 73rd in SP+. SP+ says Miami by 13.7. I'll go with that, no matter how nervous it makes me.
Pick: Miami -9


Steele: Coach Manny Diaz called last week's loss to Florida International one of the worst losses in school history. Miami is 18-11 ATS its past 29 games as an away favorite, and last season Duke won in Miami for the first time since 1976. Duke has now lost five in a row by 26.6 points per game and is minus-175 yards per game in those five losses.
In the past four weeks, Duke has allowed 278 rushing yards per game and 5.8 YPC. The Hurricanes had won three in a row ATS before last week and will now be angry, focused and playing with revenge on their minds.
ATS pick: Miami -9


Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Florida Atlantic Owls (-9)
Steele: In 2017, Lane Kiffin had a bowl-caliber squad and went 10-3-1 ATS with the Owls' 11 wins by 26.6 PPG. This season, he has a bowl-caliber squad, and FAU is 7-3-1 ATS, with its eight outright wins by 21.3 PPG. FAU can wrap up a spot in the Conference USA title game with a victory here. Southern Miss has lost only four games this season, but those losses were by 24.5 PPG and none closer than 15 points. The Golden Eagles allow only 286 yards per game at home but 411 yards per game on the road. Oklahoma transfer quarterback Chris Robison has been much improved for the Owls, hitting 63% of his passes with a 19-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Mackey Finalist tight end Harrison Bryant leads the team with 890 receiving yards. Last week, they added Alabama transfer BJ Emmons, who rushed for 53 yards and should have a more significant impact this week.
ATS pick: Florida Atlantic -9


North Carolina Tar Heels (-9) at NC State Wolfpack
Steele: The records are similar, but that is about all that is close with this matchup. North Carolina could easily have double-digit wins right now, as its losses have been by 4.3 points per game with none greater than seven points. The Tar Heels came within a missed 2-point conversion of knocking off Clemson. NC State has suffered a myriad of injuries this season, especially on defense, and six of its losses were by an average of 24.8 PPG. Over the past four weeks, North Carolina is plus-99 yards per game, and the Wolfpack are minus-75 yards per game. Both teams are starting true freshman QBs, but Sam Howell for North Carolina is completing 59.4% of his passes with 32 touchdowns, while NC State's Devin Leary is hitting just 49.5% of his attempts, with seven TD passes.
ATS pick: North Carolina -9


Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons (-11)
Johnson: This line shocked me quite a bit. Since Craig Bohl has taken over the coaching duties in Laramie, the Cowboys have beaten Air Force four of five years, holding the Falcons to just 22.2 PPG. Wyoming's defense and plan of attack offensively -- running the ball heavily with one of the slowest paces in the country -- haven't changed. The total in this matchup is currently lined 42, and I find it hard to believe an option team that Bohl teams have fared well against in the past is going to cover a number in double digits. There won't be many possessions in this game, and Wyoming ranks No. 6 in the nation defending the run, allowing only 2.8 yards per attempt. My projection considering a compressed game script with limited possessions is only Wyoming +7.8. I'm taking the 11.
Pick: Wyoming +11


Oklahoma Sooners (-12.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
Johnson: The Sooners are just squeaking by in these games! While they have won their past three by four or fewer points, Oklahoma has dominated the box scores outside of the actual score. Take a look at last week's game against TCU, for example. Oklahoma had 30 first downs to TCU's 11, and gained 511 yards to TCU's 204. The Sooners even possessed the ball for nearly 40 minutes compared to the Horned Frogs' 20. It requires a lot of misfortune to win that game by only four points. OU has been better than most people realize, and I think it's a pretty good time to buy facing an Oklahoma State team down to its backup quarterback, Dru Brown.
Brown & Co. managed to get a win at West Virginia on Saturday despite getting outgained in the game, but they really struggled offensively at times, racking up just 285 yards. The Cowboys averaged 483 this season and hadn't gained fewer than 400. My projection is Oklahoma -16.3, so I laid the big number most people try to avoid in a rivalry matchup.
Pick: Oklahoma -12.5

[Hombre de Burro]

Stanford Steve & Chris ‘The Bear’ Fallica:
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 14 college football picks, bets, nuggets

The plays
Stanford Steve (3-0-1 last week, 35-27-3 overall)
The Bear (1-4 last week, 30-29-1 overall)


Ole Miss Rebels at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-2.5, 58)
Stanford Steve: I might be a little biased here because I recently went to my first game at The Grove, but I feel like the Rebels are playing better and the offense has found some serious juice with freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee under center. I'll take the road team getting the points in the Egg Bowl.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5; Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 27


The Bear: I agree with the opener, which had the Rebels favored. What has State done lately to make one think it should be favored here? Maybe the allure of beating a rival and qualifying for whatever bowl SEC 9 heads to will be enough, but I'm not feeling it. The Rebels have been far more impressive -- and competitive -- vs. better competition, especially as the year has progressed, and I expect Plumlee to have a day here.
Pick: Ole Miss +2.5


Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans (-22, 48.5)
Stanford Steve: After a promising start, it really feels as if the dirty Terps have given up on the season.
Pick: Michigan State -22; Michigan State 34, Maryland 10


Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions (-40, 49.5)
Stanford Steve: If James Franklin can score 80, he will.
Pick: Penn State -40; Penn State 63, Rutgers 10


The Bear: Rutgers has been shut out four times in Big Ten play this year and there's a good chance a fifth shutout is on tap. This could be like Penn State-Maryland bad after Penn State's comeback fell short last week in Columbus. I would think there's a good chance Will Levis will get more time at quarterback -- and that would be a good thing. But even if Sean Clifford is back, this has the feel of a 42-0, 49-7 type of game.
Pick: Penn State -40


Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls (-28, 51.5)
The Bear: Can't imagine Bowling Green will be too excited to be getting on the plane here. Remove the win over Akron and the Falcons' past three games are losses by 39, 31 and 42. This team is 2-8 ATS this year and now has to end the season on the road against a Buffalo team that has probably exceeded expectations, been an offensive machine late in the year and really should be carrying a five-game winning streak into this one. Buffalo beat the Falcons by 30 on the road last year, and I see little reason not to expect a similar result this year.
Pick: Buffalo -28


Iowa Hawkeyes (-5.5, 45) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Bear: The Huskers' offense has actually played very well the past few weeks, and although the Iowa defense is legit, the Hawkeyes' offense isn't going to scare many people. This is a huge game for the Huskers. If they can pull the upset, this season can be viewed as progress, even if it's not the type of progress many people had hoped for. But a bowl game would be a huge step for a team that was 4-8 each of the past two years. This was a three-point game in Iowa City last year and I expect another close one -- if not an outright Huskers win.
Pick: Nebraska +5.5


Vanderbilt Commodores at Tennessee Volunteers (-21, 46.5)
The Bear: Tennessee is going to end the year on a five-game winning streak; the question is whether the Vols can cover the big number and extend their ATS streak to seven. I'll say they do. After losing to the Commodores by double-digits each of the past three years, this feels like one of those "bill has come due" type of games. The Vols are playing their best football of the season, and outside of a stunning upset over Missouri and a win over an FCS opponent, Vandy has lost eight games by at least 17 and six games by at least 24, including each of its past two losses.
Pick: Tennessee -21




Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-11, 57)
The Bear: This has a "lay it and laugh" feel to it. The Bearcats have the look of a team that has peaked. They probably should have lost the past two weeks if not for USF missing four field-goal attempts and Cincy getting a return of a blocked PAT vs. Temple. Cincinnati hasn't played well for weeks. And now the game means absolutely nothing as the Bearcats are in next week's AAC title game. I guess they could try and avoid having to play the Tigers again next week by getting the win here, but this screams like a great spot for Memphis, which needs the game and is far superior on the offensive and special teams units. Since the controversial loss at Temple, the Tigers haven't scored fewer than 42 in any game.
Pick: Memphis -11


Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State Spartans (-3, 65.5)
The Bear: Like Ole Miss, I agree with Circa's opener of San Jose State -2. This is not the Fresno team of the past couple of years. The Bulldogs have lost three straight -- the last one coming as a double-digit home favorite over Nevada -- and will miss out on a bowl. San Jose State will miss out on a bowl too, but a potential 5-7 season with near misses vs. Boise State and Hawaii -- the two teams playing for the MWC title -- has to be seen as progress for a team that went 1-11 last year and 2-11 in 2017. San Diego State has been the only MWC team to really slow down Josh Love and the Spartans' offense. And after throwing four picks in a surprising loss to UNLV, I'd be surprised if Love and the Spartans didn't play a cleaner game and end the season on a high note.
Pick: San Jose State +3


The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
10-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $81.
Louisiana -2000
Buffalo -6000
UCF -2500
Memphis -420
Georgia -7000
Tennessee -2000
Clemson -6000
Utah -6000
Notre Dame -850
Florida -1400


The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML
Ole Miss +115
Nebraska +200
Arkansas +375
Washington State +250
Louisville +135
Auburn +150


Stay-away games
The Bear
Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 69.5) at Oklahoma State Cowboys
I can't trust OU to cover a big number right now, nor do I have a ton of confidence the shorthanded Cowboys offense will score a ton. It's a complete pass for me.


Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks (-19, 66)
How will either team respond to last week's season-crushing losses? The Ducks still have a Pac-12 title to play for next week regardless of what happens Saturday, and the Beavers were so close to becoming bowl eligible last week. Now they have to try and pull a big upset again to get to six wins. Your guess is as good as mine.


Miami Hurricanes (-9, 46.5) at Duke Blue Devils
A lot of money has come in on Miami, but no way could I lay a big number with the Canes, who have been about as awful a favorite as there is. But how can you back Duke with any confidence?


Bear Bytes
Sooners squeaking by
Oklahoma is the first AP top-10 team to win three straight games by four points or fewer since Oregon in 2000.


Tide on upset alert
The past seven times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-4 straight up and covered only once. The Tide are currently a 3.5-point favorite at Jordan-Hare.
Alabama's last seven games favored by less than 7:
2019: Alabama -5 vs. LSU, lost by 5
2018: Alabama -5.5 vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: Alabama -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: Alabama -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: Alabama -5 at Auburn, lost by 12
2016: Alabama -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5


Owning the Apple Cup
Washington is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 meetings vs. Washington State. The Huskies have won six straight and nine of 10 in the series.


Miami making the wrong kind of history
With the loss to FIU, Miami became the only team in the past 40 years to lose three times as a 14-point favorite in a single season. The Canes lost to Virginia Tech as a 14-point favorite, Georgia Tech as an 18.5-point favorite and to FIU as 21-point favorite. Miami also won just 17-12 as a 30.5-point favorite vs. Central Michigan.
In its past 13 games as a favorite, Miami has lost eight of them outright.


Vols on a roll
Tennessee has covered six straight and is laying 22 this week vs. Vanderbilt. The Vols have won one SEC game by 22 points since the start of the 2016 season -- a 63-37 win against Missouri in 2016.


Think twice before laying points with Ohio State?
Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its past five games as a favorite against Michigan. OSU has won 14 of 15 on the field vs. Michigan.


Ole Miss undervalued
Ole Miss has covered six of its past seven games. The lone ATS loss was a 7-point loss to Texas A&M as a 6-point underdog.


Bad favorites in Big 12 play
Texas is 3-9 ATS in its past 12 games as a favorite in a Big 12 game.


It has been a while since Nebraska pulled an upset
Nebraska has been an underdog three times this year. The Huskers didn't cover any of them, losing to Wisconsin by 16 as a 14-point underdog, Minnesota by 27 as a 7.5-point 'dog and by 41 as a 17-point 'dog vs. Ohio State. In its past 20 games as an underdog, the Huskers have pulled one upset -- a 25-24 win over Purdue as a 4-point 'dog in 2017.
Dating to 2015, Iowa has been favored by less than six points in a Big Ten game six times; the Hawkeyes have won and covered all six.


Rowing the boat to victory
In his past seven games as an underdog, P.J. Fleck's teams have won six outright and lost by four at Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog.


Where there's a Wil, there's a way
In 24 games as an underdog under Justin Wilcox, Cal is 16-8 ATS and has won 10 outright, including four of the past seven instances.


Wyoming a tough out
Wyoming has been an underdog five times this year. The five games resulted in an outright win as a 16.5-point 'dog and four losses by a combined 15 points.


Which way do you want to go?
Virginia Tech is 3-7-1 ATS in its past 11 games as a road favorite with four outright losses. The Hokies have won 15 straight over Virginia and are 10-4-1 ATS during that stretch.


The 'I have too much time on my hands' note of the week
4-7 Ball State is favored over 7-4 Miami (OH) this week. In the past 40 years there have been just four other instances of a team 4-7 or worse after 11 games favored over a team 7-4 or better through 11 games. None of the four covered and three of the four lost outright.
2017: UMass vs. FIU, lost by 18
2011: Arizona vs. Louisiana, won by 8
2009: Illinois vs. Fresno State, lost by 1
2003: Alabama vs. Hawaii, lost by 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Powers | CFB Total - Saturday, Nov 30 2019 10:30PM
385 Fresno St. / 386 San Jose St.UNDER63.5 Westgate triple-dime bet

Analysis: Weather play. Heavy wind, rain.