Thursday 12-5-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:43 AM

Betting Recap - Week 13
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 13 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 7-8
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 102-67-1
Against the Spread 81-102-5

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 102-85-1
Against the Spread 81-102-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 92-95-1

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Redskins (+10.5, +450) at Panthers, 29-21
Dolphins (+10, +425) vs. Eagles, 37-31
Bills (+6.5, +250) at Cowboys (Thu.), 26-15
Broncos (+4.5, +190) vs. Chargers, 23-20

The largest favorite to cover
Chiefs (-11) vs. Raiders, 40-9
Saints (-7) at Falcons (Thu.), 26-18
Packers (-6.5) at Giants, 31-13
Buccaneers (-3) at Jaguars, 28-11

It's Happening Again!

-- The Miami Dolphins (+10) posted a 37-31 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., and the Washington Redskins (+10.5) were able to run all over the Carolina Panthers, securing a 29-21 victory. We had a pair of double-digit underdogs win outright back in Week 10 when the Dolphins and the Atlanta Falcons posted outright wins as underdogs of 11 or more points. It was the first time that had happened in the NFL since Oct. 15, 2017. Now, it has happened within the past month on two occasions. The Kansas City Chiefs (-11) were the only other double-digit favorite in the NFL in Week 13, and they humbled the visiting Oakland Raiders by a 40-9 score at Arrowhead.

Total Recall

-- The two highest totals on the board Sunday were the Raiders-Chiefs (49.5) and Los Angeles Rams-Arizona Cardinals (47.5), both of which went 'under'. In fact, there were six games listed with totals of 46.5, and just one of those games cashed to the 'over', and that was the New England Patriots-Houston Texans (47) game on Sunday Night Football.

On the flip side, all games with totals closing at 39.5 or less ended up hitting the 'over', sometimes rather easily. In the Thanksgiving Day early game between the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions (37), we saw third-string QB David Blough get off to a hot start before fizzling at the end. Even so, the teams combined for 44 points and an easy 'over'. In Charlotte, the Redskins-Panthers (39) was expected to a defensive slog with rather choppy offense. However, the Redskins posted a 29-21 win for 50 total points, ending up tied as the second-highest scoring game on Sunday. Not much offense was expected in Sunday's AFC West Division slugfest between the Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos (38.5). It ended up being tied late at 20-20, and a field goal at the buzzer didn't make much difference, as the over was already in the bag.

The Cleveland Browns-Pittsburgh Steelers (40) was a defensive battle which saw the home side prevail 20-13. If you're scoring at home that's four straight under results for the Yinzers, and the under is 6-1 over their past seven and 9-3 in their 12 games overall, including 2-0 vs. Cleveland this season. In addition, the Steelers are now 6-2-2 ATS across their past 10 games, and they haven't failed against the spread in consecutive weeks since opening with a pair of losses and non-covers.

The 'over' connected in the primetime matchup Sunday against New England Patriots-Houston Texans (47), and is 1-1 for the weekend pending the result of Monday's contest between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks. The 'over' is just 14-25 (35.9%) during the 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Panthers TE Greg Olsen (concussion) is in the league's mandated concussion protocol after being knocked from Sunday's game vs. Washington.

Looking Ahead -- The Cincinnati Bengals picked up a win in Week 13, assuring them of not becoming the third NFL team to finish with an 0-16 record over a full season. The last team to do it was the 2017 Cleveland Browns, their opponent for Week 14. The Bengals will be on the road at FirstEnergy Stadium, and they're 8-2 ATS across their past 10 away from home. The Browns, meanwhile, are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, although they failed to cover in a 20-13 win at Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Bengals opened as an eight-point underdog, and they're 8-1 ATS in the past nine meetings and 5-0 ATS in the past five trips to Cleveland. As such, they're seeing a lot of early action.

-- The Minnesota Vikings will host the Lions in the second of two divisional meetings. The Vikings pasted the Lions 42-30 at Ford Field back in Week 7, easily covering a 2.5-point number as the 'over' (43.5) came in. The Vikings are an impressive 35-15-1 ATS in the past 51 at home, and 15-7-1 ATS in the past 23 vs. losing sides. The Lions have failed to cover the past four meetings, with the favorite 4-0 ATS in the past four. The under is 9-3 in the past 12 meetings in this series, and 6-0 in the past six battles in the Twin Cities.

-- The Panthers and Falcons do battle for the second time this season, squaring off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Falcons surprised the Panthers 29-3 in Week 11 at Charlotte as 3.5-point underdogs as the 'under' (49) easily connected. The under is 5-1 in the past six for the Falcons, and 10-2-1 in the past 13 in this series, too. Carolina is 0-4 ATS in the past four battles overall, and 5-16-2 ATS in the past 23 trips to Georgia's capital.

-- The Jets and Dolphins meet in New Jersey, and Miami is looking for the season sweep. They're 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings with the Jets, and the under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Met Life Stadium.

-- The Seahawks and Rams lock horns in SoCal, with Seattle looking to improve on a 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven on the road. The Rams are 12-5 ATS in the past 17 games overall, and 10-2 ATS in the past 12 vs. NFC foes. In this series the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five, the underdog has hit in four of the past five and the Seahawks are just 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to SoCal. The over is 4-0 in the previous four battles, too.

-- On Monday the New York Giants travel to meet the Eagles, reeling after a shocking loss in Miami. The G-Men are a solid 10-3 ATS in the past 13 on the road, and 7-0 ATS in their past seven on a natural grass surface. While the Eagles are just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 at home, and 2-5 ATS in the past seven overall, they are an impressive 7-3 ATS in the past 10 appearances on MNF. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Lincoln Financial Field.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:45 AM

101DALLAS -102 CHICAGO
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:45 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (6 - 6) at CHICAGO (6 - 6) - 12/5/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 41-62 ATS (-27.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CHICAGO is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:46 AM

NFL

Week 14

Trend Report

Chicago Bears
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Chicago is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 15 games
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Chicago

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:47 AM

NFL

Week 14

Cowboys (6-6) @ Bears (6-6)— Both teams played on Thanksgiving, had full week to prepare. Dallas lost three of last four games; they have no takeaways in last three (-4 TO’s)- they’re 3-3 SU on road TY, 15-7-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road favorite, 3-2 TY. In their last two games, Cowboys have two TD’s on 21 drives. Three of their last four road games went over. Chicago won its last two games after a 1-5 skid; they’re 3-3 SU at home TY, 9-2-2 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog (0-0 TY). Five of their last six games stayed under. Dallas won last two series games, 41-28/31-17, with last meeting in ’16. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-13 ATS, 1-6 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-6 ATS, 2-1 at home.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:48 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Thursday, December 5

Dallas @ Chicago

Game 101-102
December 5, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
1329.514
Chicago
130.944
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:50 AM

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 5

DALLAS at CHICAGO (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Cowboys had covered 4 of last 5 prior to Thanksgiving loss to Bills. Dallas has covered last 3 on road in 2019. Bears just 3-9 vs. spread this season, also “under” 15-4 since late in 2018.
Tech Edge: “Under” and slight to Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:51 AM

Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 14 odds: Chase the Chiefs before this big line move
Jason Logan

The Chiefs' stock is soaring after a big win over Oakland and now early action is dropping Kansas City under the key number in New England this Sunday. Get K.C. +3 while you can.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window – or your mobile – to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it’s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best “Bet Now/Bet Later” games on the NFL Week 14 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3, 49)

The Chiefs’ 2019 stock has never been higher after a thrashing of rival Oakland at home in Week 13. And, the 2019 stock on the Patriots has never been lower, after a losing effort at Houston this past Sunday night. Those contrasting results has the line for this AFC Championship Game rematch trending toward the visitor.

Kansas City opened as high as +3.5 for this trip to Foxborough and that half-point hook didn’t last long, quickly getting bet down to a field goal. Some online markets opened K.C. +3 and action on the Chiefs moved it to +2.5 before buyback on Belichick’s boys pushed it back to three.

As it stands, with those Week 13 results still fresh out of the oven, plenty of books are moving to New England -2.5. So, if you like Kansas City in this revenge spot on the road, take K.C. now at +3. The “Pats off a loss” trends will make their rounds later in the week (41-16 ATS off a loss since 2003), so if you did miss out on a field goal there’s a slight chance it may pop back up.

SPREAD TO BET LATER: DENVER BRONCOS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-10, 41.5)

Nothing inflates a number like a win over New England. The Texans are riding high off a very impressive showing versus the Patriots on Sunday night, and that has pushed the opening spread for this matchup with Denver from Houston -8 (set before SNF) to -10.

If you’re not sold on the Texans or are buying into a letdown spot, hold your horses and see if this creeps over the key number of 10. Denver is coming off a last-second win over the Chargers, thanks to a late pass interference call that set up a game-winning field goal. But, the Broncos have a rookie QB at the helm in Drew Lock, who makes his first road start in NRG Stadium this Sunday.

Denver has been one of the sneaky-good bets in the second half of the schedule, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight outings. The Texans have been a bad bet at home (2-5 ATS last seven at home) and are inconsistent in their efforts, with a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven when covering the spread the game before.

TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 43 DALLAS COWBOYS AT CHICAGO BEARS

If you’re planning on an uneventful Thursday night matchup between the Boys and Bears, you may want to get down on the Under now. The total for the mid-week showcase opened as high as 44 and has been chopped down a full point and likely will keep ticking down before kickoff.

The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing effort versus the Bills at home on Thanksgiving, scoring just 15 points a week after being limited to only nine in a bad-weather game at New England. Dallas comes to Chicago, where game-time temperatures will hover around freezing and winds could reach gusts of up to 20 mph. Star receiver Amari Cooper is nursing a knee injury and there are also rumblings that he’s planning to bolt from Dallas this offseason. Hmmm…

Chicago, on the other hand, is THE Under team in the NFL. Save for a sudden outpouring from the Lions’ third-string QB on Thanksgiving, the Bears have played Under the total in eight of their dozen games this season, including a 1-5 O/U mark inside Soldier Field. The defense is especially stingy in the Windy City, allowing only 16 points against on home soil.

TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43 PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

A lone touchdown from Kyler Murray was all Arizona could muster in a blowout loss to Los Angeles in Week 13. That awful offensive effort is skewing the total for Week 14’s home date with the Steelers and should have fans of the Over pushing pause on their action until this number dips lower.

The total for Sunday opened at 43.5 and is starting to dwindle with money coming in on the Under, sitting at 43 points at some books. Pittsburgh isn’t lighting up the scoreboard by any means, but the offense looks a little more dangerous with “Duck” Hodges under center and the Cardinals “stop unit” is that in name only: giving up scores of 30, 36 and 34 in its last three games.

The Cardinals offense is much better than whatever that was in Week 13, averaging almost 23 points per game since Week 5. Pittsburgh's defense is playing well - giving up just 18.8 points per contest on the season - but has benefited from a home-friendly stretch, that saw the Steelers in Heinz Field in four of their last six outings. Arizona has gone Over the total in four of its six homestands and won’t need much from either team to top this total, especially after it drops lower throughout the week.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:52 AM

NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 14:

Road Teams: 106-83-4 ATS
Home Teams: 83-106-4 ATS

Favorites: 84-105-4 ATS
Underdogs: 105-84-4 ATS

Home Faves: 48-70-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 35-36 ATS

Road Faves: 36-35 ATS
Road Dogs: 70-48-4 ATS

O/U: 93-100

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:53 AM

By: Josh Inglis

SHADING THE MVP

The Buffalo Bills' hype-train is chugging along after a convincing win in Dallas with the country watching in Week 13. But things will get much more difficult this week with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to New Era Field.

This game will feature the first and fourth-best rushing quarterbacks (rush yards/game) in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Jackson is nearly impossible to game plan against because no teams can mimic Jackson in practice - except the Bills.

The Bills defense is used to practicing against a mobile QB and if any team in the league is prepared to slow down Jackson, the Bills stand the best chance. The same can be said with Allen as he will see a defense that faces an elite QB rushing talent in practice every week.

We think there’s a chance that the Allen and Jackson (not to be confused with the rugged country singer) rushing markets could be overvalued with all the attention they have been getting after Week 13. We are going to fade both dual-threat quarterbacks, taking the Under on Jackson’s rushing total of 75.5 yards and the Under on Allen’s on 39.5 yards.

DUCK DYNASTY

The Arizona Cardinals may be 4-1-1 ATS at home this year but their opponents have enjoyed success on the offensive side of the ball in the desert. The Cardinals are giving up the second-most TDs at home (3.8) and have allowed their opponents to score 30 or more points in four straight weeks. Even the L.A. Rams scored 34 points versus Arizona last week after averaging just 11.6 points a game from Weeks 10 through 12.

The Pittsburgh Steelers under Devlin Hodges have scored in seven of their last 16 drives and are putting up 5.5 points a quarter. Not incredible numbers but facing the league’s 28th-ranked red-zone defense will make things easier. Getting center James Pouncey back from suspension certainly helps and if James Connor can suit up, the Steelers have a good chance at eclipsing their team total, even if JuJu Smith-Schuster is out.

We’re riding the Over on the Steelers’ total of 22.5 and are waiting for TE Vance MacDonald’s prop market to open as he faces the league’s worst TE-defending team.

PRIMETIME SIX-POINT TEASER TIME

Dallas (+3) is lucky it plays in the worst division in football this year. Nobody wants to win the NFC East but Dallas may have more motivation after getting shown up on Thanksgiving and Jerry Jones basically saying Jason Garrett will not be back next year. Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears are also due for a dud. Cowboys +3

The Rams decided to run up the score last week which hopefully gives that offense and their full slate of receivers some confidence ahead of their matchup versus the Seahawks. Seattle sits sixth in points per play while its defense is allowing 24.4 average points against. Take the Over 42.

Over their last three games, the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants are averaging 52 points combined. The Giants offense will be forced to put up some points on Monday night as their defense is allowing the second-most points on the road. New York is also 5-1 O/U on totals of 41 or higher over its last six games. Take the Over 41.

FIRST-HALF CIRCUIT BAKER

The Cincinnati Bengals have the 31st DVOA first-half defense and are giving up 14.3 first-half points on the road this year. The Bengals have won their last two first halves against the Steelers and the Jets and this week may be a great time to fade Cincy in the first half as it recovers from a victory hangover.

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield will be good to go for Sunday and feasted on the Bengals last year. In his two games against Cincy, the former No.1 pick has thrown for seven TDs and completed 73 percent of his passes.

Cleveland will take out its frustrations on its division rivals. Take the Browns first-half spread of -4.

TOM TERRIBLE

Kansas City’s defense is amped up to play the Patriots and their anemic offense. We won’t put all the blame on Brady as that receiving corps has been a revolving door this year and there’s a serious lack of experience outside of Julian Edelman.

The Chiefs have six interceptions over their last two games and if Patrick Mahomes and the offense get up in New England, they will force Brady to pass - something the 42-year-old QB hasn’t been very good at. Brady is just 17th in QBR, between Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston.

Brady has only one interception at home this year but threw eight at Gillette Stadium last season. Aided by the eye test, we are putting our money on the Over 0.5 INTs for Tom Terrific.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:54 AM

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 9-3 O/U
t2. Panthers 8-4 O/U
t2. Lions 8-4 O/U
t4. Seahawks, Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs, Titans, Cowboys, Colts, Cardinals, and Giants tied at 7-5 O/U

NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 9-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 9-3 U/O
3. Bengals 8-3-1 U/O
t4. Patriots 8-4 U/O
t4. Rams 8-4 U/O
t4. Bears100 8-4 U/O
t4. Chargers 8-4 U/O
t4. Falcons 8-4 U/O

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:56 AM

Mitchell Newman

I know the Washington Wizards like to play them high, but the total on their game tonight at home against the Philadelphia 76ers appears to be a few baskets too high if you ask me.

Philly is fresh off a Monday night home Under in their game against the Utah Jazz to put them on a 7-2 Under run for their last 9 games on the year. The Sixers are allowing under 104 points per game, so while the Wizards come in with a 118-plus points per game average, I do not see them hitting that mark this Thursday night against the superior 76ers.

The Wizards last pair of games have both sailed well Over the posted price, but have actually seen a 3-3 split for their last 6 games in the Over/Under department.

First meeting of the year between the Eastern Conference rivals and the last 4 played between the teams have ended in a 2-2 split as far as the totals are concerned.

When Philadelphia is priced as the favorite this season, the Under has been the play in 6 of their last 7 games in that favored role.

Brett Brown knows that he cannot allow Washington to get out and play free and easy tonight, so expect him to slow this game down and keep it at Philly's preferred slower more defensively-paced kind of a contest.

Just a few points too many tonight to back the Over.

Go Under in Philly-Washington for Thursday.

2* PHILADELPHIA-WASHINGTON UNDER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:57 AM

Bob Valentino

Time to make some cold, hard cash and I will do so with the total on this Dallas-Chicago meeting to open up Week Fourteen of the NFL season.

Both the Cowboys and the Bears enter this Thursday game at 6-6 and both also enter this Thursday game having played last Thursday on Thanksgiving so both have the same amount of rest under their belts. Yes, Chicago does have the home field advantage on their side, and they also enter as the "hotter" of the two teams, as the Bears have won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4, while the Cowboys are off 2 straight losses and setbacks in 3 of their last 4.

Even so, still willing to lay the points with the Pokes in this road game, as I am more of a believer in their talent - especially on offense - than I am a believer in Mitchell Trubisky and this anemic Chicago offense that is averaging under 18 points per game for the year.

A closer look as the Chicago uptick shows 2 of their 3 wins in that stretch coming against the lowly Lions and the other win against the 8 losses in a row New York Giants. A closer look at Dallas' current slide show a hard-fought loss to the 10-2 Patriots in the rain in New England, and a Turkey Day turkey of an effort against the 9-3 Buffalo Bills on their home field.

Willing to look past that clunker against the Bills, as Dak Prescott rates the edge in my book over Mitchell Trubisky and I have to believe that Ezekiel Elliott is about due for a big game after being kept under wraps over the past few weeks.

While both are 6-6, the chances the Bears catch the teams in front of them in the NFC North are slim and none. Meanwhile, the Cowboys actually are in the lead in the lame NFC East, so even though they have been on the losing side in their last pair, Dallas has a chance to circle their wagons here and get themselves above the break even mark through 13 games.

True, the Cowboys are 0-5 against teams with a winning record this season, but the Bears at 6-6 do not currently fit the profile of a winning team and until I see more evidence that their offense can actually score on a consistent basis, I will play against Da Bears.

Take Dallas as the road favorite tonight.

2* DALLAS

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-05-2019, 07:57 AM

TNF - Cowboys at Bears
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

Both these teams played on Thanksgiving with mixed results. Starting with the Cowboys (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS), it was an embarrassing Turkey Day home loss to the upstart Bills in a 26-15 setback as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead on a Dak Prescott touchdown strike to tight end Jason Witten, but the Cowboys wouldn’t score again until four minutes remaining in regulation.

In between, the Bills ran off 26 consecutive points, as Dallas turned the ball over twice. Prescott ended the day with 355 yards passing, but it was the second time this season that the Dallas quarterback posted gaudy numbers in a home blowout loss (463 yards against Packers). Running back Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball only 12 times, tied for his fewest all season, but racked up 71 yards which came to an average of 5.9 yards an attempt.

The Bears (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS) erased a 17-7 deficit at rival Detroit last Thursday to knock off the Lions, 24-20. Chicago closed as a 5 ½-point road favorite, marking its seventh ATS loss in the past eight games, but the Bears are back at .500 since owning a 3-3 record in Week 7. Bears’ quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put together his best game of the season by throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead score to David Montgomery with 2:17 remaining in regulation.

In spite of Chicago’s modest two-game winning streak, the Bears remain three games behind the Packers for the top spot in the NFC North and two games back of the Vikings for the second NFC Wild Card position. The 24 points scored at Detroit marked the most posted by the Bears since putting up 25 in a home loss to New Orleans back in Week 7. The defense allowed at least 20 points for the first time in four games, ending a five-game streak to the ‘over.’

YOU DON’T SCORE UNTIL YOU SCORE

The Cowboys’ formula for winning this season has been very simple. When Dallas scores 31 points or more, it has a perfect 6-0 mark. On the flip side, Jason Garrett’s squad has compiled an ugly 0-6 record when being held to 30 points or less. The last two weeks have been especially forgettable offensively as Dallas combined for only 24 points against a pair of solid defenses in New England and Buffalo. The last time the Cowboys won a game when scoring fewer than 30 points was their Wild Card victory over the Seahawks this past January, 24-22.

PROTECT THIS HOUSE

The Bears have played six games at Soldier Field this season and have allowed more than 17 points only once, which came in a Week 7 defeat at New Orleans when they yielded 36 points. Chicago has given up 10, 6, 17, 13, and 14 in the other five home contests, while opponents have posted more than 20 points only once in the past 10 games at Soldier Field, which includes the 16-15 playoff loss to Philadelphia. The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of the last 10 home contests for Chicago, as the Bears have scored at least 21 points only once in six home games in 2019.

DOGGIN’ IT

For only the third time this season, the Bears are listed in the underdog role. The first two times didn’t work out well for Chicago by losing at Philadelphia, 22-14 in Week 9 and dropping a 17-7 decision to the Rams in Week 11. The last time the Bears closed as an underdog at Soldier Field came last December in a 15-6 win over Los Angeles when they received three points. ‘Dogs have posted a solid 9-4 ATS record on Thursday night action this season, while only two home underdogs have won and covered on Thursdays (Jaguars – Week 3 and Raiders – Week 10).

SERIES HISTORY

These NFC squads last met in 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as the Cowboys took care of the Bears, 31-17 as 6 ½-point favorites. Dallas is making its first trip to the Windy City since 2014 (also a Thursday night game) when the Cowboys held off a furious Bears’ rally in a 41-28 victory as four-point favorites. The Cowboys built a commanding 35-7 lead before Chicago scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the final score look better.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 and the number is listed at 42 ½ as of Wednesday evening.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week’s number.

He said, “This game could be looked at as a bit of a head-scratcher based on the total results for both clubs. The Cowboys have watched the ‘over’ go 7-5 this season and that includes a 4-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a great ‘under’ bet at 8-4 and only one of six games played at Soldier Field went ‘over’ this season and that outcome was helped with a big second-half scoring surge when the Saints visited back in Week 7.”

“Chicago is the perfect mold of an ‘under’ team, solid defense and inconsistent offense and that trend has been golden for bettors riding the low side -- especially at home too. The ‘under’ is on an 8-1 run in the last nine home games for the Bears and only one team scored more than 17 points, which came in the aforementioned effort against New Orleans (36-25).”

While those seasonal trends and tendencies could have many bettors placing ‘under’ wagers on Thursday, David points out a total angle that’s correlated to Dallas.

He explained, “The drama always follows Dallas in the NFL and this season is no different. After last week’s loss on Thanksgiving to Buffalo, it’s hard to have any confidence in the Cowboys but if you believe they’re going to right the ship then you would a better offensive effort. Dallas sits at 6-5 on the season and it has averaged 34.3 in the six wins and the ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in those games. If you go back even further, the Cowboys have scored 20-plus points in 16 of their last 17 wins. Bottom line, the Cowboys win when they score. The Dallas team total is hovering between 22 and 23 for Thursday and since I believe the ‘Boys rebound, my lean would be to the Cowboys Team Total Over.”

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in to figure out what has gone wrong with the Cowboys, “Dallas has out-gained 11 of 12 foes this season with the only deficit just -9 at New Orleans. Turnovers can’t account for all the problems at just -4 in turnover margin on the season though the Dallas defense has forced zero turnovers in the past four games for a -5 run in that 1-3 stretch. Chicago is +3 in turnovers on the season, but an offense with a rushing identity has been out-gained on the ground in seven of the past eight games even with a run defense that has allowed 97 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season.”

PLAYER PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 276 ½ (-110)
Under 276 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 1 ½ (-120)
Under 1 ½ (Even)

Will Dak Prescott (DAL) throw an interception?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Rushing Yards – Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Over 81 ½ (-110)
Under 81 ½ (-110)

Will Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) score a touchdown?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Completions – Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 22 ½ (-110)
Under 22 ½ (-110)

Total Rushing Yards – David Montgomery (CHI)
Over 55 ½ (-110)
Under 55 ½ (-110)

Total Receiving Yards – Anthony Miller (CHI)
Over 53 ½ (-110)
Under 53 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

This line has stayed steady this week with the Cowboys as three-point road favorites. The total hasn’t seen much movement as it sits at 43 ½ at most books.

Thursday 12-5-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 12-5-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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