Saturday 12-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 11-3 O/U
2. Panthers 10-4 O/U
t3. Cowboys 9-5 O/U
t3. Lions 9-5 O/U
t5. Cardinals, Ravens, Vikings, Titans, Seahawks, Colts & Giants 8-6 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 11-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 11-3
t3. Rams 9-5 U/O
t3. Patriots 9-5
t3. Bengals 9-5
t3. Bears100 9-5
t7. Packers, Broncos, Texans, Redskins, Falcons & Chargers tied at 8-6 U/O

[Can'tPickAWinner]

207C MICHIGAN -208 SAN DIEGO ST
C MICHIGAN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games in the current season.

211SMU -212 FLA ATLANTIC
SMU is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in road games after 2 conference games in the last 3 seasons.

215WASHINGTON -216 BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) after going under the total over the last 2 seasons.

217UAB -218 APPALACHIAN ST
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, December 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C MICHIGAN (8 - 5) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (9 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 2:00:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LIBERTY (7 - 5) vs. GA SOUTHERN (7 - 5) - 12/21/2019, 2:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LIBERTY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SMU (10 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (10 - 3) - 12/21/2019, 3:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
SMU is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA INTERNATIONAL (6 - 6) vs. ARKANSAS ST (7 - 5) - 12/21/2019, 5:30:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (12 - 1) - 12/21/2019, 7:30:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 154-112 ATS (+30.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 154-112 ATS (+30.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 97-66 ATS (+24.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
BOISE ST is 88-55 ATS (+27.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 96-68 ATS (+21.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UAB (9 - 4) vs. APPALACHIAN ST (12 - 1) - 12/21/2019, 9:00:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
APPALACHIAN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after a bye week over the last 3 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
APPALACHIAN ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
UAB is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.
UAB is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UAB is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Bowl Season

Trend Report

Saturday, December 21

Central Michigan @ San Diego State
Central Michigan
Central Michigan is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Central Michigan is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Diego State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego State's last 5 games
San Diego State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Liberty @ Georgia Southern
Liberty
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Liberty's last 6 games
Liberty is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Georgia Southern
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games
Georgia Southern is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Southern Methodist @ Florida Atlantic
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Southern Methodist's last 12 games
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

Florida International @ Arkansas State
Florida International
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Florida International's last 5 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Florida International's last 18 games
Arkansas State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 5 games when playing Florida International
Arkansas State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Boise State @ Washington
Boise State
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State's last 5 games
Washington
Washington is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games

Appalachian State @ Alabama-Birmingham
Appalachian State
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Alabama-Birmingham
Alabama-Birmingham is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama-Birmingham's last 6 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Bowl Season

Dec 20- Bahamas Bowl
C-USA went 3-2 vs MAC in this game last five years, with average total of 66.2. Buffalo is 0-3 in bowls, giving up average of 43 ppg- this is first time Bulls went to consecutive bowls. Buffalo won five of its last six games overall after a 2-4 start; they’re 16-6-1 ATS in last 23 games as a favorite, 5-3 TY. Seven of their last nine games went over. Leipold is 30-32 in five years at Buffalo; he was 109-6 as a D-III coach. Charlotte gets to its first bowl in its fifth year of I-A ball; 49ers won their last five games after a 2-5 start, scoring 32.6 ppg- they’re 4-4 ATS as an underdog TV, covering lat three tries. Charlotte ran ball for 497 yards in last two games; they’ve got a soph QB. Three of their last four games went under.

Frisco Bowl, Frisco, TX
Kent State is in its 3rd bowl, first since 2012; they’re 6-6 TY after being 12-47 previous five years. Golden Flashes scored 35 ppg in winning their last three games; they’ve covered six of eight games as an underdog TY. Three of their last four games went over. Utah State is in 3rd straight bowl, 6th in last seven years; they went 3-2 in last five bowls. Aggies won three of last four games after a 4-4 start; junior QB Love is bolting school early for NFL- this is his 32nd/last college start. USU is 13-5-1 ATS in last 19 games as a favorite, 4-2 TY; they’re 6-4 ATS in last 10 games with single digit spread. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games. Favorites won/covered this bowl four of last five years, with average total of 67.2.


Dec 21- New Mexico Bowl
San Diego State went 9-3 despite scoring 17 or less points in half their games- they beat a I-AA team 6-0, were 6-0 SU scoring more than 17 points. 10 of their 11 games stayed under. Aztecs lost bowls 42-35/27-0 last two years; they’ve got senior QB making 19th start. Central Michigan went 1-11 LY, made bowl TY in McElwain’s first year at CMU. Chippewas are in 5th bowl in six years but they lost last four bowls, scoring 12.7 ppg in last three. CMU won six of last eight games, losing MAC title game 26-21; they’re 4-2-1 ATS as an underdog TY. Over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Underdogs covered five of last seven New Mexico Bowls; Mountain West team is 3-2 in this game last five years, with average total of 55.2.

Cure Bowl, Orlando
Liberty is in its first bowl in their 2nd year of I-A ball; Hugh Freeze is 3-1 in bowls, going 3-0 when he coached at Ole Miss. Flames have a senior QB making his 43rd/last start; they’re 1-4 when they allow 31+ points, 6-1 when they allow less than 31. Liberty is 6-7 ATS as an underdog since going D-I. Four of their last five games went over. Georgia Southern won six of last eight games after a 2-4 start; they scored 40.7 ppg in last three games. Eagles won their only two bowls, nipping Eastern Michigan 23-21 LY- they’ve got a junior QB with 35 starts who threw for 704 yards, ran for 674 yards TY. Four of their last five games went over. Sun Belt teams split four Cure Bowls, with average total of 49.

Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, FL
Is it good to play a bowl on your home field? After your coach bolted to an SEC job? Owls are 3-0 in bowls, winning this game 50-3 over Akron LY, now they’re playing a home bowl for 2nd year in a row. FAU won 10 of 11 games after losing to Ohio St/UCF to open season; they’ve got a soph QB wth 23 starts. Owls covered five of last six games; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog, 5-1 ATS TY in games with single digit spread. SMU split its last four games after an 8-0 start; they scored 28-48 points in their losses; over is 9-3 in their games TY- Mustangs are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY. SMU is in its 2nd bowl in seven years; they lost 51-10 to La Tech in a bowl two years ago. Favorites covered four of first five Boca Raton Bowls, with average total of 61.8.

Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Arkansas State has had emotional 7-5 season; their coach’s wife passed away August 19- he missed their first game. Red Wolves won four of last five games, throwing for 300+ yards in last four games; they’re 4-3 ATS in games with single digit spread. FIU went 6-6 this year, after going 16-10 last two years; they’ve split four bowl games, with dogs covering three of them. Panthers are 1-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread- they did upset Miami, but then lost to Marshall. FIU allowed 200+ YR in five of its six losses; they’ve got a senior QB with 38 starts. Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games. Underdogs covered four of last five Camellia Bowls, with average total of 57.8. Sun Belt teams won this bowl three of last four years.

Las Vegas Bowl
Chris Petersen unexpectedly quit as Washington’s coach; his last game is against his old team, where he went 92-12 from 2006-13. Huskies were disappointing 7-5 TY with only two starters back on defense- they’re 0-5 in games decided by 10 or fewer points. Washington is 1-4 in bowls under Petersen, with average total of 54.2. Boise State’s bowl game LY in Dallas was cancelled because of severe weather with 5:08 left in first quarter; Broncos are 3-1 in bowls under Harsin- they upset Oregon in this game two years ago. Boise won its last six games; their only loss was 28-25 at BYU in October. Four of their last five games went under. Mountain West team won this bowl last three years; favorites are 5-3 ATS in this game last eight years, with average total in last five, 55.8.

New Orleans Bowl
UAB lost C-USA title game 49-6 to FAU two weeks ago; they’re 9-4 TY, scoring 13 or fewer points in all four losses. UAB won three of last four games; they’re 0-3 ATS as an underdog TY, after covering 13 of previous 18 tries as an underdog. Blazers are 1-2 in bowls, with favorites covering all three games. Appalachian State is 12-1, with only loss by FG to Ga Southern on Halloween; Mountaineers scored 45.8 ppg in last four games- they’re 5-4 as a double digit favorite TY. ASU won this bowl 45-13 LY; they’re 4-0 in bowls, scoring 31+ points in all four- this is their 6th year as a I-A team. Favorites won/covered last four New Orleans Bowls; Sun Belt team won this game six of last eight years. Average total in this bowl last five years, 56.2.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

Saturday, December 21

NC A&T @ Alcorn State

Game 205-206
December 21, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC A&T
65.338
Alcorn State
59.696
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC A&T
by 5 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC A&T
by 2 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NC A&T
(-2 1/2); Over

Central Michigan @ San Diego St

Game 207-208
December 21, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
80.133
San Diego St
81.038
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego St
by 1
25
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego St
by 3 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+3 1/2); Under

Liberty @ Georgia Southern

Game 209-210
December 21, 2019 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Liberty
77.183
Georgia Southern
79.381
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia Southern
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 5
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(+5); Under

SMU @ Florida Atlantic

Game 211-212
December 21, 2019 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SMU
90.043
Florida Atlantic
90.344
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
Even
73
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
SMU
by 3
70
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+3); Over

FIU @ Arkansas St

Game 213-214
December 21, 2019 @ 5:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
FIU
74.807
Arkansas St
73.181
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 1 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
by 3
63
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+3); Over

Boise State @ Washington

Game 215-216
December 21, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boise State
97.058
Washington
97.282
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(+3 1/2); Under

Appalachian St @ UAB

Game 217-218
December 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
92.028
UAB
78.006
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 14
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 17
48
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(+17); Under

Montana St @ North Dakota St

Game 1701-1702
December 21, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana St
83.609
North Dakota St
90.554
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
North Dakota St
by 7
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
North Dakota St
by 18 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montana St
(+18 1/2); Over

Weber St @ James Madison

Game 1703-1704
December 21, 2019 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Weber St
80.630
James Madison
94.423
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
James Madison
by 14
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
James Madison
by 16 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Weber St
(+16 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, December 21

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at SAN DIEGO STATE (New Mexico Bowl)...Aztecs “under” 12-1 since last 2018. SDSU also 4-1 “under” its last five bowls. Aztecs 5-1 SU away in 2019 but just 4-11 as chalk since LY (0-8 in 2018). Jim McElwain covered 9 of last 11 this season and 5 of last 6 as dog.
Slight to CMU and “under,” based on team and ‘totals” trends.


LIBERTY vs. GEORGIA SOUTHERN (Cure Orlando Bowl)...First-ever bowl for Liberty. Flames covered 7 of last 10 this season but just 2-3 as dog. GS only 2-4 vs. spread away from Statesboro in 2019, and Eagles “over” 13-6 since midway in 2018.
“Over” based on “totals” trends.


SMU at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Boca Raton Bowl)...SMU cooled off down stretch after covering first five TY, only 3-4 vs. spread last seven. Though mustangs were 5-1 SU vs. line away this season. FAU 7-2 vs. spread last nine in 2019, also won and covered 4 of last 5 at Boca Raton. Mustangs 9-3 “over” in 2019.
FAU and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. ARKANSAS STATE (Camellia Bowl)...FIU was only 4-8 vs. lin3 this season but did cover last two, after 10-3 spread success a year ago. Butch Davis 2-3 as dog TY after 10-4 mark in role previous two seasons. Ark State 2-5 as chalk this season and just 1-4 SU and vs. spread in bowls past five years.
Slight to FIU, based on extended trends.


WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)... Huskies 5-1 vs. line last six outside of Pac and 7-3 as chalk in 2019 Petersen 2-3 vs. line in bowls with Huskies. Boise has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls and Harsin 5-1 last six as dog. Also 24-11 vs. number last 35 away from home since 2015. MW has won and covered last 3 LV Bowls.
Slight to Boise State, based on team trends.


UAB vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (New Orleans Bowl)...UAB only 2-4 vs. spread away from Legion Field TY and 0-3 as dog after 9-4 mark getting points in 2017-18. App 9-4 vs. spread TY, 22-10-1 vs. line since late 2017. Mounties also 5-1 vs. line away TY.
Slight to App State, based on team trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Dec 21 '19, 1:05 PM in 3h
NHL | Ducks vs Islanders
Play on: Ducks +160 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on Ducks +160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Dec 21 '19, 2:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Liberty vs Georgia Southern
Play on: Liberty +6½ -107 at pinnacle

Free Pick on Liberty

[rocky57]

Earl's Platinum Plays (Spooky Express) - CBB Comp Play - Butler -135 (Moneyline)

[rocky57]

Big Ray's Sports (Spooky Express) - CBB Comp Play - Kentucky +4

[rocky57]

Horse Racing with Dietz (Spooky Express) - Fair Grounds Race 9 La Signare W/P/S

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Dec 21 '19, 3:30 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | SMU vs Florida Atlantic
Play on: OVER 71 -110

1* Free Pick on SMU/Florida Atlantic over 71 -110
I unfortunately bet this game before the news of the FAU players getting suspended, but I do still have a strong lean towards the OVER at the current price (64-65).
SMU comes into this game averaging 43.0 ppg and the only game all season where they were held under 30 was against Navy and their ball-control offense with that triple-option. FAU's not the kind of team to play keep away, as they are built around the nations 30th ranked passing attack.
Don't be fooled by the fact that the Owls only gave up 22.3 ppg. That's just a result of playing a lot of bad offenses in C-USA. They gave up 45 to Ohio State (28 in the first quarter) and 48 to UCF. I fully expect the Mustangs to hit 40 in this one.
I'm sure some have concerns with FAU's offense with Lane Kiffin jumping ship to Ole Miss and all those skill players not playing. However, FAU averaged 35.2 ppg, scoring roughly 9 points more per game than their opponents allowed. They still got starting quarterback Chris Robinson and he's the guy that really makes this offense go.
Also, SMU is not great defensively. Mustangs gave up 31.8 ppg and finished 121st against the pass (285 ypg). Take the OVER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Dec 21 '19, 4:30 PM in 7h
NFL | Bills vs Patriots
Play on: Bills +6½ -107 at betonline

10* FREE NFL PICK (Bills +6.5)
I just think the value is definitely with the Bills at this price. You can say what you want about who Buffalo has and hasn’t beat in their 10-4 start, they pass the eye test for me. That combined with how well the Bills played against the Pats in that earlier meeting and I think this line should be closer to 3.5-4.
For me I just have a hard time seeing New England pulling away with how much their offense has struggled and just how good this Buffalo defense is. Keep in mind the Patriots had scored 30+ points in the 3 games leading up to their first meeting with the Bills and they did next to nothing in that game on the offensive side of the ball.
New England was able to score 34 last week at Cincinnati, but it was more of their defense than it was the offense. Patriots only had 291 yards of total offense, as they feasted off 5 Bengals turnovers, including a 64-yard pick-six by star corner Stephon Gilmore. Tom Brady was a mere 15 of 29 for 128 yards and that’s now 3 times in his last 4 games that he’s failed to simply throw for 200 yards.
I’m sure a lot of people will focus on how good the Patriots are at home and there’s no arguing the numbers, but they did just have their home winning streak snapped. Also, Buffalo had gone 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 road games and New England is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me Buffalo +6.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Dec 21 '19, 7:00 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Murray State vs Evansville
Play on: Evansville PK -109 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Evansville PK -109