Service Plays Saturday 12/21/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

LIBERTY +4
LIBERTY VS GA. SOUTHERN | 12/21 | 2:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:46 PM
CURE BOWL -- An option offense loses some of its advantages in bowl season. During the season it benefits from teams not facing their style of play often, and only having a week to prepare for it. Well, Liberty's had nearly a month to get ready for this one. And Liberty's pass offense should find plenty of success against a Georgia Southern pass defense that has a propensity for allowing big plays. Take the dogs.

50-38-4 IN LAST 92 CFB PICKS | +1142
SMU -3
SMU @ FAU | 12/21 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:44 PM
BOCA RATON BOWL -- One of the things about bowl season you have to consider is a team's motivation. Well, how motivated to you expect FAU to be? Not only has their coach left for Ole Miss, but FAU is playing this game in its home stadium. Not exactly the kind of reward you hope for in a bowl trip. Plus, while FAU won C-USA, the AAC is a much better conference, and SMU performed very well in it. The Mustangs have just a little too much on the offensive side of the ball for the Owls.

50-38-4 IN LAST 92 CFB PICKS | +1142
5-0 IN LAST 5 FAU ATS PICKS | +500

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

#TRUSTTHEPROCESS

YESTERDAY 6:42 PM
WASHINGTON -3.5
BOISE ST. VS WASHINGTON | 12/21 | 7:30 PM EST
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- As everybody knows, this will be Chris Petersen's last game at Washington, and he's going against the program he made. Well, call me crazy, but I have a hard time believing Washington is going to send Petersen out with a loss, and in turn, without a cover. Washington struggled in Pac-12 play, but it dominated in nonconference against teams like BYU and Hawaii. Boise State's better than those teams, clearly, but it's not a huge difference. Give me the size and talent in a highly-motivated Washington team.

50-38-4 IN LAST 92 CFB PICKS | +1142

Bill Marzano

VETERAN HANDICAPPER

YESTERDAY 12:32 PM
BOISE ST. +3.5
BOISE ST. VS WASHINGTON | 12/21 | 7:30 PM EST
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- Boise State will win outright. It's fitting that Washington coach Chris Petersen's last game will be against the team he guided to a 92-12 record over eight seasons. The Broncos had a great season and would love to finish it with their seventh straight win. Boise State, which won the last meeting 16-13 in Petersen's much-anticipated return, is perfect ATS in its last seven games as an underdog. The Huskies are just 1-4 in their last five Bowl games.

33-20 IN LAST 53 CFB PICKS | +1068

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy

5 units San Diego State -3.5 over Central Michigan (Saturday, December 21 at 2:00 PM ET)

6 units BUFFALO/New England GAME TOTAL UNDER 37 (Saturday, December 21 at 4:30 PM ET)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

4-Boise st+3.5

2-patriots-6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Ma

LARams +6.5
SanDiegoSt -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best bets for early slate of college football bowl games

The College Football Playoff field is set, as are the rest of the bowl matchups. That means plenty of opportunities to bet over the course of bowl season.

ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer up their best bets. We'll keep updating as matchups approach, so follow along!
Regular-season records
Connelly: 30-16-2 (1-4 last week)
Steele: 31-41-1 (2-3)
Johnson: 35-25-1 (2-2)
Kezirian: 46-36-1 (1-2)
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, unless otherwise noted. All times Eastern.
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl


Buffalo Bulls (-6.5, 52.5) vs. Charlotte 49ers

(2 p.m. Dec. 20 on ESPN at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas)
Connelly: Both of these teams got hot late in the season. Charlotte won its last five and rose from 111th to 98th in SP+ to reach its first bowl, and Buffalo won five of its last six (the Bulls outgained Kent State by 95 yards in their lone loss) and rose from 113th to 84th. That the Bulls improved by more is the reason for them to be favored, but unless Charlotte goes into full "happy to be here" mode, six points is a lot.
This is a pretty interesting matchup of strength vs. strength (Charlotte O vs. Buffalo D) and weakness vs. weakness (Buffalo O vs. Charlotte D). If the 49ers find success against an aggressive, all-or-nothing Bulls pass defense, they could win outright. SP+ projects a 30-28 Buffalo win.
Pick: Charlotte +6.5
Steele: I am on the Joe Moore Award committee for choosing the top offensive line in the country, and Charlotte's unit got high praise on our conference calls during the season. Buffalo also has a solid offensive line, paving the way for 254 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per carry while allowing just eight sacks. The Bulls lost their starting QB in Week 5, and though Kyle Vantrease has thrown for just 155 yards per game in his seven starts, the team is 6-1 ATS in those games. Charlotte has the stronger pass game, but Buffalo has a good-sized edge on defense. Both teams rank near the bottom of my special-teams rankings.
My power ratings have this one close to the line, so with the strong offensive lines, I will look to the over (the past five Bahamas Bowls have averaged 66.2 points per game).
Pick: Lean over 52.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl


Utah State Aggies (-4.5, 65) vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

(7:30 p.m. Dec. 20 on ESPN2 at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas)
Steele: This one figures to be a shootout, with Utah State allowing foes 33 yards per game above their season average and Kent State yielding 96 yards per game above. The Golden Flashes have a very underrated QB in Dustin Crum, who threw 18 TDS with just two interceptions and is the team's leading rusher with 560 yards. Aggies QB Jordan Love is an NFL prospect, but he had a 32-6 TD/INT breakdown last season with a tremendous supporting cast. With just one other returning starter on offense, this season he has only 17 TDs vs. 16 INTs, and Utah State has gone from 48 PPG to 28 PPG. Kent State has covered six in a row as an underdog versus non-Power 5 teams and is getting a full touchdown here. (The line was Utah State -7 before three players were cited for marijuana use Tuesday.)
Pick: Lean Kent State +7
Celebration Bowl


Alcorn State Braves vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies (-2.5, 51.5; Westgate)

(Noon Dec. 21 on ABC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Steele: This is the fifth Celebration Bowl, which pits the champions from the MEAC and SWAC. North Carolina A&T is 3-0 in this bowl game, including a 24-22 win over Alcorn State last season. With Noah Johnson rushing for 1,080 yards, Alcorn State averaged 285 yards per game rushing and 6.2 yards per carry last season. Johnson went down with a season-ending injury this season, but his replacement, Felix Harper, was the SWAC Offensive Player of the Year.
The Aggies' defense is coming off a game in which it held NC Central to 9 total yards of offense in a 54-0 shutout. My computer and average game grades both have NC A&T winning by 10 points, so there is some definite value here.
Pick: Lean NC A&T -2.5
New Mexico Bowl


Central Michigan Chippewas vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5, 41)

(2 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico)
Johnson: Maybe the memory of the Aztecs' 27-0 loss to Ohio in last year's Frisco Bowl is still fresh in everyone's minds, as it isn't too often that a MAC school dominates a bowl game. My projection here is San Diego State -6.2, and though the turnaround season from Central Michigan is a great story (1-11 to 8-5 and a MAC title game appearance), it probably speaks more to the lack of talent in the MAC than the actual abilities of the team relative to the rest of the country. Remember: Central Michigan lost 61-0 to Wisconsin earlier this season.
Not only am I getting the more talented team (starting quarterback Ryan Agnew is probable), but I'm specifically buying Rocky Long's defense, which ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency (4.6 yards per play) and first in rushing yards allowed per play (2.7). With Long having multiple weeks to prepare his defense for a Chippewas offense that has been playing MAC competition the past few months (124th-ranked strength of schedule), I'm thrilled to buy low here at a cheap number.
Pick: San Diego State -3.5
Steele: San Diego State games have topped 41 points just twice this season -- and they average 32 PPG. Central Michigan has the edge on offense, with RBs Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis, but the Aztecs' defense is No. 6 in the country, holding foes to 110 yards per game below their season average. When you think of San Diego State, you think of RBs who rush for 2,000 yards (two of them in past four years), but this year the top RB is Juwan Washington, with just 500 yards and a poor 3.3 yards per carry. The Aztecs have a significant edge on special teams at No. 17 in my rankings, with Central Michigan at No. 76, and that hurt them in the MAC title game. Central averaged just 13.6 points per game versus the five toughest defenses. I like the Aztecs to win, but they are laying more than a field goal, so I will lean with the under.
Pick: Lean under 41
Cure Bowl


Liberty Flames vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (-5, 58.5)

(2:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on CBS Sports Network at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Connelly: How much is a hot streak worth to you when a bowl break is involved? Georgia Southern began the season 1-3 and was ranked in the 100s in SP+ in late October, but excellent performances against Appalachian State, ULM and Georgia State not only drove the team to bowl eligibility but also lifted it to 89th in SP+. That's not bad, but do you lose your form with three weeks off?
Liberty, meanwhile, has basically been the same team for the past two months. The Flames were 91st in SP+ after six weeks and 87th at the end of the regular season. Their balanced and dangerous offense is the best unit in this game, and the connection of quarterback Stephen Calvert to receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden could have a field day against a shaky Georgia Southern pass defense. SP+ projects a near toss-up (Liberty by 0.2), which is almost a touchdown's difference with the betting market.
Pick: Liberty +5
Steele: Liberty is 7-5 despite facing the weakest schedule in the country. Hugh Freeze took over a 6-6 team and transformed Stephen Calvert from a QB that had 21 TDs and 18 INTs last season to a 26-5 ratio this season. Despite the schedule, Liberty allowed foes 4.7 yards per carry rushing and 26 yards above their season average. That does not bode well against the Georgia Southern option offense that ran for 261 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. The Eagles took on LSU and Minnesota in nonconference play, and their defense held foes to 63 yards per game below their season average. This is Liberty's first bowl, and I will go with the team that has the much stronger defense and has played the far tougher schedule.
Pick: Georgia Southern -5
Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl


SMU Mustangs (-3, 70.5) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

(3:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ABC at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida)
Steele: SMU is led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele (3,626 yards, 33 TDs, 9 INTS), and FAU is led by Oklahoma transfer Chris Robison (3,392 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INTs). The Owls won the Conference USA title this season, and their two nonconference losses were to Ohio State and UCF. SMU has just two losses this season, but the Mustangs were on the road to Memphis and Navy, who each had double-digit wins. The Owls have the better defense statistically, but the Mustangs had 50 sacks and took on the tougher schedule. I have been riding FAU all season, and though this team is a home underdog, head coach Lane Kiffin has accepted the job to coach Ole Miss. This should be a very competitive, high-scoring game.
Pick: Lean over 70.5
Camellia Bowl


Florida International Panthers vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves (-2.5, 63)

(5:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
Steele: Arkansas State has a dangerous offense. Despite losing QB Logan Bonner after four games, backup Layne Hatcher stepped in and threw for 314 yards per game, and wide receiver Omar Bayless is among the nation's receiving leaders with 1,473 yards and 16 TDs. The Red Wolves' defense was hurt by injuries all season and lost four defensive tackles for the season, leaving them vulnerable to the run (they allowed 224 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry). FIU is led by running backs Anthony Jones and Napoleon Maxwell, who combined for 1,411 yards rushing. Should the Red Wolves stack the box, QB James Morgan is an NFL prospect who has hit 62% of his passes with a 39-10 TD/INT ratio in two seasons. Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games, and Blake Anderson is 1-4.
Pick: FIU +2.5
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl


Boise State Broncos vs. Washington Huskies (-3.5, 49.5)

(7:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ABC at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas)
Steele: Chris Petersen started his head-coaching career at Boise State in 2006 and was there until 2014, when he left for Washington. Boise State should have both talented QBs (Hank Bachmeier and Jaylon Henderson) available. The Broncos' defense is led by defensive end Curtis Weaver (13.5 sacks), and the unit held foes to 67 yards per game below their season average. QB Jacob Eason topped 300 yards passing once all season versus FBS foes and will be without his top receiver in tight end Hunter Bryant and left tackle Trey Adams, who are opting to sit this one out. The Huskies are holding opponents to 71 yards per game below their season average. I could make a case for both teams here, so with two solid defenses, I will lean with the under.
Pick: Lean under 49.5
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl


Appalachian State Mountaineers (-16.5, 48) vs. UAB Blazers

(9 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
Steele: UAB coach Bill Clark took over a team that had not played football for two years and guided it to a bowl game. The Blazers were C-USA champs last season, and this season, with a very inexperienced team, the Blazers got to the C-USA title game. UAB QB Tyler Johnston missed four games, and RB Spencer Brown had five games with two carries or fewer down the stretch. UAB should be healthier for this game, and its defense holds opponents to 294 yards per game. UAB's schedule is 127th in my rankings, but App State has played the 106th-toughest schedule. App State QB Zac Thomas and RB Darrynton Evans are both dynamic, but UAB has some big play WRs in Austin Watkins and Kendall Parham. App State was outgained in four of its wins this year, with a first-down deficit of 106-63. The talent gap is not as large as the spread, and Clark will have his Blazers motivated, while the Mountaineers have a head coach in his first career game.
Pick: UAB +16.5
Kezirian: UAB is arguably the biggest farce this bowl season. The Blazers rank 106th out of 130 in ESPN's Football Power Index and are bowl-eligible only because they've beaten the nation's worst teams. Seven of their eight FBS wins came against opponents that rank in the triple digits of FPI. They also beat Louisiana Tech at home, but the Bulldogs were relegated to a third-string quarterback and lost by six points in Birmingham. FPI ranks Conference-USA dead last among all 10 FBS conferences. The eight bowl-eligible schools are misleading.
Meanwhile, the Blazers face a ranked App State squad that sits 30th in FPI. It is a solid team that won at both North Carolina and South Carolina, and its lone loss came against a triple-option offense (Georgia Southern) in windy conditions. The Mountaineers did lose head coach Eliah Drinkwitz to Missouri, but the school promoted offensive line coach Shawn Clark to head coach. He is not the interim coach, so that bodes well for stability and avoiding potential distractions.
It's a big number, but App State was 5-4 ATS this season when favored by double digits, so the Mountaineers can certainly handle it. I have faith in a blowout, much like we saw in UAB's 49-6 loss in its conference title game.
Pick: App State -16.5
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl


UCF Knights (-17, 61.5) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd

(2:30 p.m. Dec. 23 on ESPN at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida)
Steele: UCF was 13-0 in 2017 and 12-0 last season, coming up short versus LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This season, the Knights are 9-3 and playing in the Gasparilla Bowl, and they could be in for a letdown. However, UCF could come out with a vengeance in nearby Tampa and make a statement. QB Dillon Gabriel had more TD passes (27) than McKenzie Milton did last season (25). UCF has a significant edge on offense, with plenty of explosive playmakers, and the Knights were No. 4 in the country averaging 537 yards per game. Marshall comes in No. 73 in that category, averaging 397 yards. Marshall was on course for the C-USA title game but lost to Charlotte and finished 7-1 in C-USA play. UCF is the stronger team and should win this game, but I am leaning with the 'dog here, as Marshall is 10-3 ATS the past 13 times it has been an underdog, and the Knights are on a 2-7 ATS run overall. Marshall head coach Doc Holliday is 6-0 straight-up and ATS in bowls.
Pick: Lean Marshall +17
SoFi Hawai'i Bowl


Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors vs. BYU Cougars (-1.5, 64)

(8 p.m. Dec. 24 on ESPN at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu)
Steele: Most bowls have a split crowd, but Hawai'i will be playing in its home stadium. BYU QB Zach Wilson went 18-of-18 passing in a 49-18 bowl win last season. Wilson missed four games midseason but has returned to form. BYU was the only team in the country to open with four Power 5 opponents and pulled upsets of Tennessee and USC. Hawai'i lost twice at Boise, including in the Mountain West title game. BYU beat that same Boise team, but it was against a backup QB. Hawai'i is 4-4 straight-up and 3-5 ATS in this bowl. Hawai'i went to the run-and-shoot, and head coach Nick Rolovich goes with the hot hand at QB between Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro. In its last six regular-season games, Hawai'i averaged 188 yards per game rushing, and the offensive line allowed just 22 sacks on 588 pass attempts. BYU's defense has recorded just 12 sacks. Hawai'i beat a pair of Pac-12 teams at home this season, and BYU is just 1-5 as a favorite this season.
Pick: Lean Hawai'i +1.5
Kezirian: Who doesn't love betting the Hawai'i Bowl? It is an "island game" (pun intended), serving as your lone college football action on Christmas Eve. On that merit alone, it often finds a way into your betting portfolio, but I still think there is value on BYU's offense. The Hawai'i defense ranks 103rd out of 130 schools in defensive efficiency. The Warriors played better down the stretch, but I am going to chalk that up to facing weak offenses. Their final three regular-season opponents (UNLV, San Diego State and Army) have offensive efficiency that ranks worse than 90th. This is still a defensive unit that can get torched by BYU. I also think Hawai'i should score and considered the game total over, but I am slightly more confident in isolating BYU's team total. There is a chance that BYU's physicality could bother Hawai'i, much like we saw Boise State do in the Mountain West title game when the Warriors mustered only 10 points.
Pick: BYU team total over 33 points (FanDuel)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big al

central Michigan CFB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. Mike does not consider himself a pet lover. But he likes 'dogs, preferring to evaluate each game from the underdog's point of view. Mike used that philosophy to post a sparkling 63-46 ATS mark for the entire 2018 NFL season. Over the past three seasons, Mike is 197-162 in the NFL, returning over $1,800 to $100 players.


UAB +16.5
APP. ST. VS UAB | 12/21 | 9:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:21 PM
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- In the largely unpredictable bowls universe, spreads do not get much larger than this. App State overcame the departure of its head coach a year ago and won its bowl by 32 points under an interim. Pulling off the feat twice in a row would be impressive now that Eli Drinkwitz has fled to Missouri. There's no doubt that UAB has an inferior roster, but the Blazers rose to the occasion last year, taking its bowl game by 24 points. Take UAB.

49-39-3 IN LAST 91 CFB ATS PICKS | +593
3-0 IN LAST 3 APLST ATS PICKS | +300

BOISE ST. +3.5
BOISE ST. VS WASHINGTON | 12/21 | 7:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:16 PM
LAS VEGAS BOWL -- Aside from Boise sending out a weaker team than usual, most signs point to a straight-up win for the Broncos. They have covered seven games in a row as an underdog and in seven of the past 10 bowls. Washington is on a 1-4 ATS bowl slide, and Chris Petersen is coaching his farewell game -- against his previous school. Boise switched QBs in midseason and won its last six outright. Two significant Huskies -- TE Hunter Bryant and left OT Trey Adams -- sit out to wait for the NFL draft.

49-39-3 IN LAST 91 CFB ATS PICKS | +593
4-2 IN LAST 6 BOISE ATS PICKS | +180

2-1 IN LAST 3 WASH ATS PICKS | +89

FIU +2.5
FIU VS ARKANSAS ST. | 12/21 | 5:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:11 PM
CAMELLIA BOWL -- Though Arkansas State is appearing in its ninth straight bowl, the postseason-angle checkmark goes to FIU; Panthers coach Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games at three different schools. FIU counter productive Ark State QB Layne Hatcher with the No. 6 pass defense in the FBS. Three opponents were held to fewer than 100 aerial yards by FIU. Take the Panthers.

49-39-3 IN LAST 91 CFB ATS PICKS | +593
SMU -3.5
SMU @ FAU | 12/21 | 3:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:06 PM
BOCA RATON BOWL -- The departure of coach Lane Kiffin negates FAU’s home-field edge. With Kiffin headed to Ole Miss, the most high-profile figure in this game is SMU QB Shane Buechele, who directs the nation’s No. 6 scoring offense. The matchup has all the makings of a shootout, and Buechele and his sidekicks, RB Xavier Jones and WR James Proche, are more dangerous than their counterparts on the Owls. Take SMU.

49-39-3 IN LAST 91 CFB ATS PICKS | +593
3-1 IN LAST 4 SMU ATS PICKS | +195

LIBERTY +4.5
LIBERTY VS GA. SOUTHERN | 12/21 | 2:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 1:00 PM
CURE BOWL -- Georgia Southern is so run-oriented that it carved out the most impressive stat in football: zero interceptions thrown. But the Eagles throw fewer than 12 times per game, and the additional practice time afforded bowl teams has allowed veteran Liberty coach Hugh Freeze to plan for the option offense. The Flames’ prolific passing attack strikes quickly and can overcome a disadvantage in time of possession. Give me Liberty.

49-39-3 IN LAST 91 CFB ATS PICKS | +593
3-1 IN LAST 4 GAS ATS PICKS | +190

SAN DIEGO ST. -3.5
C. MICHIGAN VS SAN DIEGO ST. | 12/21 | 2:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 12:54 PM
NEW MEXICO BOWL -- Props to Central Michigan for winning eight games under new coach Jim McElwain after a one-win season. The Chippewas overachieved, though, and its offense has not confronted a defense like San Diego State’s, which allows a minuscule 12.8 points per game. The Aztecs are bowl-tested, having partaken in the postseason 10 straight years. Their offense is spotty, but they only need to score 24 points.

49-39-3 IN LAST 91 CFB ATS PICKS | +593
2-1 IN LAST 3 SDGST ATS PICKS | +90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is a consistent winner when it comes to ATS and over-under picks. He's a wallet-fattening 216-179 in his popular "Six Pack" college football column the past four years. And he's spreading his wings on SportsLine, demonstrating his expertise in every single sport. In the 2018-19 NBA season, Fornelli went 86-67, returning $1,229 to $100 players. You'll get maximum access to Fornelli's picks only on SportsLine.


HOUSTON -3
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 12/21 | 1:00 PM EST
THU 12/19
Jameis Winston is in the midst of one of my favorite QB seasons of all time, but in the last two weeks he's lost Mike Evans and now Chris Godwin. I think Godwin's the bigger loss for what Tampa wants to do on offense, and it will have an impact on the Bucs here. It's scary to take the Texans as a favorite (only 8-15-1 ATS since 2017), but Tampa's been horrible at home itself, going 0-4-1 ATS there this season. With both Will Fuller and Kenny Stills back, the Houston offense is at max capacity, which will help it get this cover.

32-23-1 IN LAST 56 NFL PICKS | +668
5-1 IN LAST 6 HOU ATS PICKS | +386

2-1 IN LAST 3 TB ATS PICKS | +95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

Bill Marzano takes a basic approach to handicapping: He follows each sport daily, analyzing stats and trends, injuries and personnel. He homes in on refs and umps to get an edge. And he uses all the resources he's compiled over the years. Marzano believes in patience and doesn’t play games every day or just because he’s up or down or on a streak. He likes run lines, puck lines and isn’t afraid of a two- or three-game parlay. Marzano excels in every major sport and absolutely dominates the NHL. Over the past four years, he's returned a documented profit of $10,091 to $100 NHL players.


APP. ST. -16.5
APP. ST. VS UAB | 12/21 | 9:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:45 PM
NEW ORLEANS BOWL -- The Mountaineers come into this Bowl game at 12-1 and with an interim head coach, but I don't think that will make a difference. The Mountaineers are 4-0 their last four Bowl games. UAB was just destroyed by FAU in the C-USA title game, 49-6. The Mountaineers have the 9th-ranked offense in the nation, averaging a robust 39.5 points per game. UAB is struggling offensively and starting QB Tyler Johnston hasn't thrown a TD pass in three straight games, but has tossed four INTS.

33-20 IN LAST 53 CFB PICKS | +1068
BUFFALO +6.5
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | 12/21 | 4:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:37 PM
The Bills lost a tough 16-10 meeting earlier this year and I think this game will be very similar -- a low-scoring, defensive battle that will be decided by a field goal either way. This is the best team the Bills have had in years and they have a shot to stun the Patriots.

6-3-1 IN LAST 10 NFL ATS PICKS | +272
4-1 IN LAST 5 NE ATS PICKS | +287

UNDER 37
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | 12/21 | 4:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 6:35 PM
The Patriots have dominated this series and have a chance to wrap up their 11th consecutive AFC East crown and a first-round bye. This should be a low-scoring game. The Bills are right behind the Patriots for top scoring defenses. The Patriots' offense is struggling to score consistently and the Bills' offense isn't putting up a ton of points, either.

5-4-1 IN LAST 10 NFL PICKS | +65

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

Micah Roberts has worked in the Las Vegas sports book industry for 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos' book director. Armed with an unmatched network of sources, Roberts has covered the Las Vegas sports betting industry for VegasInsider.com, Gaming Today, and Sporting News. In 2016, Micah became a SportsLine expert and promptly crushed college football for SportsLine members, going 70-44-3 (61 percent) on the season.


UNDER 37
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND | 12/21 | 4:30 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:39 PM
The last three meetings have stayed Under the total, including the Patriots' 16-10 win in September. The Bills have gone 7-0-1 to the Under in their last eight road games. In their 14 games this season (10-4 ATS), 11 of them stayed Under the total. Tom Brady’s offense is still struggling. Under is the play.

23-13 IN LAST 36 NFL O/U PICKS | +870
3-0 IN LAST 3 NE O/U PICKS | +300

L.A. RAMS +6.5
L.A. RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 12/21 | 8:15 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:36 PM
The 49ers have lost two of their last three games, the last coming at home against the Falcons. All three of their losses have been in the final seconds. The Rams are a tough team to figure out. Just when it looks like they have things together, they lay an egg at Dallas last week. The 49ers won 20-7 in the October meeting, but are now 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC West teams. Take the points.

5-2-1 IN LAST 8 NFL PICKS | +278
4-3 IN LAST 7 LAR ATS PICKS | +73

OVER 50
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 12/21 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 2:28 PM
There’s a chance of rain Saturday in Tampa, with winds blowing at 13 mph. This is part of the reason this total was bet down from 53. The Buccaneers have gone Over the total in 11 of their last 12 games and have won their last four due to the high-level play of Jameis Winston. He is auditioning for a new contract. The Bucs' defense allows 31 ppg at home. Over is the top play.

23-13 IN LAST 36 NFL O/U PICKS | +870
5-1 IN LAST 6 TB O/U PICKS | +390

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.


TAMPA BAY +3
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 12/21 | 1:00 PM EST
YESTERDAY 3:48 PM
Sure, Jameis Winston is down his top two receivers, but he showed last week that he can throw to anyone, with Breshad Perriman catching three touchdowns. Yes, that came against a bad Lions defense, but why should we be scared of this Texans unit? They've given up 390-plus yards in four of their five games since the bye, and that includes home games against offenses in the Patriots and Broncos that haven't exactly looked great otherwise. With the underdog 11-3 ATS in Texans games and unlikely to stop Winston, I'll take the Bucs and their improving defense to pull off the shocker and get this win, though I'm happy to take the three points.

22-17-1 IN LAST 40 NFL ATS PICKS | +333
19-8-3 IN LAST 30 TB ATS PICKS | +1008

L.A. RAMS +6.5
L.A. RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 12/21 | 8:15 PM EST
YESTERDAY 3:41 PM
The 49ers have been playing a lot of close games lately. If you throw out the last second fumble TD against the Cardinals and count that as a close game (Arizona was winning with a minute left), six of the 49ers' last seven games have come down to the wire. In a divisional game against a Rams team that has played better in the second half despite getting smoked by the Cowboys last week, this feels like another close one that could go either way. With Dee Ford out, the vaunted 49ers pass rush loses a little bit of bite and helps this stay within the number.

22-17-1 IN LAST 40 NFL ATS PICKS | +333
27-12-1 IN LAST 40 LAR ATS PICKS | +1346

12-8 IN LAST 20 SF ATS PICKS | +320

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills

Washington -3 -115 5.5% NCAAF POD

FIU +110 2.5%

San Diego State -3 3.3%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cajun Sports CFB
Appalachian State -16.5

I think it's funny how most people here are nothing but beggars but offer nothing in return and yet they feel justified in bashing people like me and a few others who actually post picks on a regular basis. I love trends and systems and, therefore, the service I subscribe to will always fit that bill for me. Of the ones I subscribe to J.R. Stevens and MTi are my favorites and the best and most consistent I have seen. J.R. Stevens is great at picking underdogs and MTi plays a mix of totals and sides at about a 65%-35% split based on my experience. There are days when these guys might have 10-12 picks but you have to understand they cover multiple sports each day where many strong systems can exist, so it shouldn't really surprise anyone when this happens. You also have to understand system players are PROFIT players, typically INVESTORS and not gamblers or degenerates. Britney DeLuca is also great if you love totals. I'm not sure I have seen anyone better, especially when it comes to her biggest pick each day. Of the ones I subscribe to Marc Lawrence is the worst in terms of performance but I still like his service because, again, he brings a lot of trends and systems to the surface which can help avoid pitfalls. When you pick a service, any service, you really should understand what their style of picking is first and see if it matches your own style or philosophy. If you like to play to favorites then you probably won't be happy with a service that specializes in underdogs or totals, just like if you like to play totals you probably won't be happy with someone who specializes in favorites or underdogs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Feinberg

bills
49ers