Service Plays Sunday 12/22/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

SENIOR ANALYST
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Larry combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. In the past four years, he's gone 235-194 on NFL picks, including 61-47 last season. Larry also crushes the NBA playoffs, having gone 56-41 ATS the past two seasons.

DALLAS -1.5
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA | 12/22 | 4:25 PM EST
YESTERDAY 12:24 AM
The Cowboys lead the NFL with 6.5 yards per play, and Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper love facing Philly. With Lane Johnson looking iffy at best, I'll back Dallas to improve to 15-2 ATS in its last 17 versus NFC East foes.

49-32-3 IN LAST 84 NFL ATS PICKS | +1369
11-7 IN LAST 18 PHI ATS PICKS | +317

UNDER 37
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. JETS | 12/22 | 1:00 PM EST
THU 12/19
After Duck Hodges' ill-advised throws versus Buffalo, look for Pittsburgh to play extremely conservatively. This is a matchup of two stout defenses. Go Under before it dips below this key number.

57-42-3 IN LAST 102 NFL PICKS | +1068
3-0 IN LAST 3 PIT O/U PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Fornelli

UNDER 45
OAKLAND @ L.A. CHARGERS | 12/22 | 4:05 PM EST
THU 12/19
Neither one of these teams has much more to play for here than pride, and I don't expect it to be a high-scoring affair. Oakland being without Josh Jacobs hurts their offense, which has been leaking water for weeks already. Plus, the Under has been profitable in Chargers home games since they moved to LA. Since 2017, the Under is 14-7 when the Chargers are at home. It's also 11-5 when the Chargers play an AFC West opponent. The Under is 13-3 when the Raiders play within the division the last three seasons as well.

32-23-1 IN LAST 56 NFL PICKS | +668
3-1 IN LAST 4 OAK O/U PICKS | +190

ARIZONA +9.5
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE | 12/22 | 4:25 PM EST
THU 12/19
The Seahawks have gone 4-2 at home this season, but those four home wins have come by a total of 15 points. This is a Seahawks team that has made a habit out of winning close games, which probably isn't sustainable in the long run, nor a good sign for their Super Bowl hopes. It's also not a great sign for their chances of covering nearly 10 points against a Cardinals team that has gone 4-1-1 ATS on the road this season.

32-23-1 IN LAST 56 NFL PICKS | +668
4-1-1 IN LAST 6 SEA ATS PICKS | +290

3-1 IN LAST 4 ARI ATS PICKS | +186

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Powers

NFL:

2 - Tennessee +3 (-120)
2 - Arizona +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nfac


SUNDAY 12-22-19 =


472) Indianapolis -6.5...($750) via Pinnacle


476) Philadelphia +2...($750) William Hill at +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY FINN



FINNs NFL GAME of the MONTH
Game: (477) Arizona Cardinals at (478) Seattle Seahawks
Date/Time: Dec 22 2019 4:25 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Cardinals 10.0 (-108)

View Analysis

PLAY: Arizona Cardinals +10 (good to +9)
4% confidence rating
(477) Arizona Cardinals at (478) Seattle Seahawks
Sunday's game analysis posted shortly
ARIZONA CARDINALS +10
FINNs SUN NITE NFL: BEARS v CHIEFS
Game: (479) Kansas City Chiefs at (480) Chicago Bears
Date/Time: Dec 22 2019 8:20 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (good to -7)
4% confidence rating
(479) Kansas City Chiefs at (480) Chicago Bears
Game night analysis posted shortly
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Feinberg

Jets, Saints , Cowboys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 1:00PM
464 TEN 3.0(-120) Pinnacle vs 463 NOS double-dime bet

Analysis: … Det Den -6.5, 38
Den blowout @KC last week giving us value here
Losing big to KC is not a huge negative
And Lock played poorly in the Snow Conditions
Det: My lowest rated NFL team
Den could easily have been a .500 team this year
Given that, laying -6.5 at home is cheap vs. the worst team in the NFL!
… Oak LA -7, 46
HFA: Negligible…………90 % Raiders fans…..
The Big Questions OAKLAND: How will they react to Jax loss?
The Raider LA Fans will take over the stadium
HFA: I gave Chargers 1 for it…….(lowest HFA of year)
Unlikely they will be much impacted by the Oakland Meltdown
Chargers: 7 Turnovers in Viking Loss:
How will THEY react to that debacle?

… jax ATL -7 46.5
Lean Atl
TEASE ATL
Atl playing much better
4-2 SU/ATS
1 of the ATS losses was by 1 point vs. Saints….
All 4 covers were by double digits
Jax gets an unlikely upset win @Oak, now a bad spot on road again
Now they have to travel again to Atl
AND locker room distractions
Players win ruling over mgmt on fines for players missing Treatments during offseason
… N Orl TEN 3, 50.5 LIKE TEN
N Orl, emotionally charged blowout MNF Win
Now they have to travel to Titans
Titans/Tannehill HAD been playing at a very high level for 4 weeks
21-24 loss vs. Hou, should they really now be getting 3 at home?
Titans only 11% to win the Division, however
Titans 58% to make the playoffs!
Team should still be very excited here.







… Nyg WASH -2 42
NYG possible emotional letdown!
Eli got emotional final win at HOME
“See everyone Wed!” he said after the win
Team got an extra day off
Will team be flat off that win, and with Jones at QB?
Wash: Underrated? Could have beaten Philly Sunday
Haskins: Played best game of season (QBR 57) YTD QBR 20
Wash: Playing Good Ball
W vs. Det, W @ CAR
Lose by 5 at GB, lost in final seconds @ Philly
… Pit JETS 3, 38
LIKE JETS LIKE UNDER Pit: Offense simply not there:
Steelers’ Offense has only scored 8 TDs in 7 games
Pit: 3 S/T Def TDS have made the scoreboard look better
VS. Indy/Rams/Az (3 close wins)
And Duck Hodges Regressing:
40 QBR YTD Last 4 games (Buf 17, Az 57, Clev 36, Cin 23)
Jets: Schedule Edge
10 days to prepare off blowout loss @ Baltimore
Vs. Pit tough physical SNF game vs. Buf
… Cin MIA pk 47.5
LIKE MIA PK
How is Cin clearly better than MIA??


Fitz a top 10 QB
Mia undervalued based on 1 bad game vs. Nyg (ELI rally game)
Fitz is a top 10 QB right now for Mia
Ranked 10th in QBR at 60.1 (Cousins 9, Ryan 11)
Despite a horrible start to season 1st 2 games



… Car INDY -7 46 PASS
The Big Question: Will Grier starts at QB for Carolina
How will team respond?
Sends message to team “We are evaluating talent”
PRESEASON: 8/8 @Chic: 9/16 77 4.8 1/1
8/16 Buf: 10/19 75 3.9 0/1
8/23 @ NE: 4/8 44 5.5 0/0
8/29 Pit : 11/18 189 10.5 1/1
Grier generally ineffective in preseason, but DID play 4 good defenses
Indy: How will THEY respond after being eliminated from Playoffs
Ty Hilton played, but was ineffective MNF
Team was crushed by Saints
… Balt CLV 10 48
LEAN CLEV: Power Ratings Strongly support it
Balt point spread tax in play (10-0 SU Run)
(7-1 ATS Run)
Just A lean:
Clev: Dreamcrusher at 6-8 eliminated from playoffs
Balt: Revenge for their last loss (25-40)
Prop Bet: Chubb UNDER about 100 Rush Yards
We would expect Balt to atone for Chubb 20/165 day…….

… Dal Philly 2.5, 46.5
Dallas No1 Team in the Stats
+1.4 YPPLAY
Dallas No. 1 in NFL in YPP Offense
And Eagles Offense compromised: Injuries:
LT Lane Johnson OUT
2 Best WRs DONE for year (Jackson, now Jeffery)
And no 3 WR Aguilar injured, ?
Team is playing practice squad players at WR….
Eagles: OVERRATED
Miracle cover vs. Wash last week
NEVER lead by more than 4 entire game
And trailed with 1 minute to play……
And fortunate win vs. Giants the week beforew
Won by 6 in OT
Trailed by 14 in 2nd half…….
Dak Health : Limited in Wed practice…….(shoulder)

I THINK THE DAK issue trumps the rest


We have to look to play PHilly given Dak may be MUCH less than 100%
… Az SEA -9.5 56.5
SEA: OVERRATED
10-1 in 1 score games
Sea has only won 1 game ALL YEAR by double digits
And they only yard the yardage in that game by 19
PROP BET Sea Carson OVER 90 RUSH YARDS
Without Penny Carson was the workhorse
254/130 last last week vs. Carolina
Similar dynamics here….Sea should have the lead and grind out a win
Az: Bad spot? Off an upset win, now go on the road……..
Vs a Sea team that already beat them by 17 in Az
… Kc CHIC 5, 45
LEAN KC
KC UNDERATED: 3 Games without Mahomes…. Matt Moore
3 Losses with Mahomes not 100% Indy, Hou, @ Titans
So offensive stats are depressed.
Despite that, KC is 2nd in NFL at 6.2 yards/play
And KC D should continue to improve with new DC Spagnaola
2018: KC D 26th (Football Outsiders)
2019: KC D 11th (Football Outsiders)
Held last 4 opponents to 17 or fewer yards……..
Bears: Dream Crusher Eliminated from the Playoffs……..With this being their last home game, they likely still bring a good effort

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

**8-UNIT NFL

BENGALS Pk

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ELITE SPORTS PICKS

Chiefs-6

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

5* Cardinals+9 NFL

3* Jets+3

3* Hornets+13 NBA

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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

4* Titans+2.5

3* Redskins-1

3* Bengals/Dolphins OVER 46

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 4:25PM
475 DAL / 476 PHI UNDER 46.0 William Hilldouble-dime bet

Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 22 2019 4:25PM
477 ARI 9.0(-110) William Hill vs 478 SEA double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mississippi Kid
Giants -pk 2U
Cardinals +9.5 2U
Tenn +3 1U

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Midwest NFL Handicapping

TENN +3 (Buy Hook)***
NYG -1
CAR +7 (Buy Hook)
ARIZ +9
GB +5
DEN -7

Teaser
DEN -1/GB +11
MIAMI +8.5/DEN -1
NYJ +9/PHIL +8.5
ARIZ +15/BALT -4
KC PK/TENN +9
PITT +3/UNDER 43

OVER/UNDER
PHIL/DAL UNDER 46

Yesterday
HOU -2.5 (Buy Hook) WIN
BUFF +7 (Buy Hook) PUSH
SF -7 LOSS
BUFF +12/UNDER 43.5 WIN

NOTE: Vegas Pointspreads we’re OFF by 4 points COMBINED across yesterday’s 3 NFL games. It’s the end of the season and the lines
are sharp! Buy The Hooks. They saved our life yesterday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Lawrence

GOY Titans

4* Eagles
3* Arizona

3* Chicago