Service Plays Friday 12/27/19

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROB VENO


CFB Friday Bowl Game Total Best Bet
Game: (227) NORTH CAROLINA at (228) Temple
Date/Time: Dec 27 2019 12:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 53.0 (-107)


4% Temple vs North Carolina OVER 53
Rode the defensive weakness of Temple to a 3-0 ticket cashing record this season and will now look to ride that train a fourth time. The Owls defense struggled mightily with up-tempo based teams that featured speedy, home run threats at the skill positions. Memphis, SMU & Central Florida all posted 492, 655 & 614 total yards respectively while scoring 30, 45 & 63 points. Led by QB Anthony Russo, Temple’s offense responded well enough in those games to get all of those games “Over” the total. The 58, 66 & 84 points recorded in those contest are all above and beyond the asking price of 53 in this matchup. North Carolina led by true freshman QB Sam Howell has run 78.6 plays per game on offense this season which ranks #7 in the nation. Their per game total yardage balance (184.0 rypg / 285.0 pypg) combined with play calling splits of 55.8% run & 44.2% force opposing defenses to respect all aspects of their high powered offense. Figure Temple to find vulnerabilities in the Tarheels defense which has allowed 395.8 typg to FBS opponents which allow them to be productive on the scoreboard and send this game “Over” the total of 53.
Recommendation: OVER 53

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY FINN

PINSTRIPE BOWL: SPARTY vs DEACONS
Game: (229) MICHIGAN STATE at (230) WAKE FOREST
Date/Time: Dec 27 2019 3:20 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: WAKE FOREST 4.5 (-102)

View Analysis

PLAY: Wake Forest +4.5 (good to +3)
4% confidence rating
(229) MICHIGAN STATE at (230) WAKE FOREST
ACC quarterback Jamie Newman suffered an injury in the school's regular season finale against Syracuse. Clauson says that backup Sam Hartman will be ready if needed under center. Michigan State’s rugged defense. The Spartans held teams to just 22.7 points a game this season. However, Michigan State averaged only 22 points a game offensively. Furthermore Sparty failed to score more than 20 points in five out of the last seven contests.
More gameday analysis posted shortly.
WAKE FOREST +4.5
FINNs HOLIDAY BOWL: USC v IOWA
Game: (233) USC at (234) IOWA
Date/Time: Dec 27 2019 8:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: IOWA -1.0 (-110)

View Analysis

NOTE: This Holiday Bowl release will be Finn's first of two Bowl selections featured on the Free Picks page and in the WagerTalkNews. It is a recommended 4% Best Bet.. game details below.
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PLAY: Iowa Hawkeyes -1 (good to -3)
4% confidence rating
(233) USC at (234) IOWA
The Holiday Bowl matches Big 10 Iowa and Pac-12 USC. The Holiday Bowl is one of those games that rarely garners a large share of hype despite traditionally having intriguing matchups. The time of this bowl, 48 hours after Christmas and a handful of days before New Years is my belief as to why it is semi-overlooked.
Holiday Bowl Vitals
(233) USC Trojans vs. (234) Iowa Hawkeyes
Line: Iowa -2
Total: 52
Game date and time: Friday, Dec. 27, 2019 at 8pm ET
TV Coverage: FS1
Venue: SDCCU Stadium

The result of the Pac-12 Championship game that saw Oregon defeat Utah complicated which conference school would go to what contracted bowl. Utah was part of last year’s Holiday affair. As a result USC was selected to be in the Holiday Bowl game. Without detailing all of the scenarios of which bowl director wasn't satisfied with the pa-12 member taking part in their bowl know that regardless of where USC head coach Clay Helton goes drama follows.

The Big Ten Iowa Hawkeyes were an easy choice for the Holiday spot. After NY6 spots were filled by Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State, the Citrus Bowl took Michigan, which also was a candidate to come here, which left Iowa as the proud Big 10 participant to square off against the Trojans.

USC Trojans (+2, 52)

The game features two teams that couldn't be different in terms of scheme and style. USC has one of the nation’s most explosive offenses (463.7 ypg ranking 18th in FBS). The Trojans average 33.2 points per game. (36th).

Just when you thought Helton and his staff had sold their K-Gunn offense to the young quarterbacks and skilled players injuries set this team back. And make no mistake that USC is the West Coast equivalent of Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson and more in terms of capturing the best high school players in the world.

The coaching staff handed the ball to Kedon Slovis after injuries to the top two signal-callers on the depth chart. And while Slovis was as consistent as the weather he had his 15-minute moments, as well. Slovis averaged 9.0 yards per attempt with a 28/9 TD/INT ratio. USC ranked No. 4 in passing success rate. Much of the credit of the offenses success came with the slew of talent this Trojans croup has at wide receiver.

The USC defense wasn't as exciting nor where they big play oriented. Like Helton's offense the Trojans defense suffered its share of injuries as well. USC ranked in the bottom 10 percent, (ranked 111 in defensive efficiency.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-2, 52)

Iowa is one of the FBS defensive elite. The Hawkeyes surrendered a mere 304.3 yards a game (13th) and 13.2 points (6th) overall. College football pundits will argue that Iowa will never be the best of the Big 10 as long offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz is in charge of the scheme. The Hawkeyes’ offense ranks 87th in yards per play and with the 56th ranking in overall efficiency it puts Iowa in a difficult position to score enough points to support their top-tiered "D"

The Hawkeyes are true to Big 10 tradition. This being effective rushing the football on offense and stopping the run defensively is a winning formula. Iowa ranks 37th in rushing success rate and 71st in passing, So why then does Iowa throw nearly twice as many passes as they have rushing attempts?

The 2019 Holiday Bowl Winner is....

The age ole adage "believe only half of what you see and none of what you hear" is the advise I was given when Helton took the reins of the Trojans football program. I was also advised that it was a waste of time to follow and report to much on USC both in-season and during the summer. Why? Because you can't believe or trust what Helton says or does.

You can trust head coach Ferentz in bowl games. And his offensive coordinator will be much looser with his play calling in a holiday bowl event than he is during the regular season slate.

This Holiday Bowl matchup significantly favors the Hawkeyes. Little Frerentz will play to what this game is in the big picture. Which is nothing more or less than a reward for the kids and the fan base. Expect a balanced attack by Iowa with a few wrinkles that will allow them to take advantage of a defense that is near the top of the BFS in allowing explosive plays, 20 yards or longer.

When Ohio State's Jim Tressel left as Columbia's bench boss it moved Iowa's Kirk Ferentz to the top spot in BTATS (Big Ten Against the Spread). Ferentz's career record against the Las Vegas line is an impressive 112-87.

The Trojans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games; 0-5 ATS in their last 5 December contests and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten teams.

And the icing is that all of the above trends are a part of the current head coach, Helton, not all however. And the Trojans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
IOWA HAWKEYES -1.0 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Friday, Dec 27 2019 12:00PM
227 North Carolina -4.5(-110) Westgate vs 228 Temple double-dime bet

Analysis: The Tar Heels clearly exceeded expectations in the first year under Mack Brown. True frosh QB Sam Howell set an NCAA-record with 35 TD passes for a true freshman and with 15 extra practices should only get better here. Meanwhile, Temple head coach Rod Carey is 0-6 SU (-25 ppg) and 0-6 ATS (-18 ppg) in bowl games. Our power ratings are strong on UNC here (see below) and note coach Brown was 13-8 in bowl games.
__________________

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Powers

3- North Carolina -4.5
1 - Wake Forest +4.5
1 - Oklahoma St +7
1 - Iowa/USC Over 52
2- Washington St/Air Force over 67

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

Emory is the founder and CEO of Football Gameplan, which has been supplying analysis of all levels of football since 2007. Born and raised in New Orleans, Hunt played running back at the University of Louisiana-Lafayette and coached high school football before starting Football Gameplan. Hunt is a regular contributor to CBS Sports HQ, where he breaks down CFB and NFL games with Danny Kanell and Raja Bell.


WAKE FOREST +4.5
MICHIGAN ST. VS WAKE FOREST | 12/27 | 3:20 PM EST
WED 12/11
PINSTRIPE BOWL -- Michigan State hasn't had the suffocating defense we're used to seeing, and it has been a struggle all season for the Spartans to score consistently. Wake Forest is solid all the way around and has the better quarterback with Jamie Newman. The Demon Deacons challenge a defense’s discipline against the run, and that opens up big plays in the passing game.

96-58-1 IN LAST 155 CFB ATS PICKS | +3296
6-0 IN LAST 6 MICHST ATS PICKS | +600

TEMPLE +4.5
NORTH CAROLINA VS TEMPLE | 12/27 | 12:00 PM EST
WED 12/11
MILITARY BOWL -- A young Tar Heels team that won consecutive games to earn a bowl bid takes on an experienced Temple squad. The benefit of youth is that you're able to take risks. But a veteran team knows how to take advantage of inexperience and avoid mistakes. Plus, the Owls defense could be tough on UNC.

96-58-1 IN LAST 155 CFB ATS PICKS | +3296
11-1-1 IN LAST 13 UNC ATS PICKS | +990

[Dmoney221]

Pgf - 3% on Temple +6 and 1% ML

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Marc Lawrence

College Bowl Crush Play!
Temple

Jaw Dropping Holiday Bowl Top Kill Play!
Iowa

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Colin Cowherd Marquee 3

Friday 27th:

Iowa -2

Saturday 28th:

Clemson -2
Oklahoma +14

Regular season record: 17-24-1

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Chris the Bear Fallica

Friday 27th:

Temple +5
Michigan St. -3 1/2
Texas A&M -6 1/2

Chris "the Bear" Fallica ESPN Chalk
Friday: Charlotte +6 1/2

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nbaclub info

Golden State Warriors - Phoenix Suns
Over 223

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Alan Harris

3 Unit Play. Take #228 Temple +6 over North Carolina (12:00 PM, Friday, December 27, ESPN)

2 Unit Play. Take #227/228 North Carolina vs Temple Over 53

6 Unit Play. Take #230 Wake Forest +4 over Michigan St (3:20 PM, Friday, December 27, ESPN)

2 Unit Play. Take #229/230 Michigan St vs Wake Forest Under 50

4 Unit Play. Take #231 Oklahoma St +6 over Texas A&M (6:45 PM, Friday, December 27, ESPN)

2 Unit Play. Take #231/232 Oklahoma St vs Texas A&M Over 54

3 Unit Play. Take #234 Iowa -2 over USC (8:00 PM, Friday, December 27, FS1)

2 Unit Play. Take #233/234 USC vs Iowa Over 52

4 Unit Play. Take #236 Air Force -2.5 over Washington St (10:15 PM, Friday, December 27, ESPN)

2 Unit Play. Take #235/236 Washington St vs Air Force Under 68.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee Sterling

35 AF
30 T am
25 over UNC
20 USC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

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3-Unit Play: Take 234 Iowa -2.5 over USC (8 p.m., Friday, December 27)

Holiday Bowl

I'm laying the points with Iowa on Friday night. The intangibles are all on the side of the Hawkeyes in this one. The interest in this game is sky-high as evidenced by their allotment of ticket sales being grabbed-up in no time. The players who will enter the NFL draft have said they're playing without a second thought. The same can't be said for the USC players in the same situation. USC has definite skill player advantages in this one but we have the coaching advantage with Kirk Ferentz and his 10-6 ATS bowl record. And there's the dreaded Pac-12 mark in bowls, covering just 4 of their last 22. Washington covered on Saturday but the motivation in Chris Peterson's finale was on their side. No such motivation for USC in this one. I'm laying the points with Iowa on Friday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

MILL- Michigan State -

No Limit- Iowa -

Inner Circle- Texas A&M