Service Plays Sunday 1/19/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prez

5% chiefs/Titans over 51.5

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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST

12:45 AM
SAN FRANCISCO -7.5
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | 1/19 | 6:40 PM EST
When the 49ers whipped Green Bay earlier this season, the Packers were coming off a bye while San Francisco was missing key defenders. Those defenders are back, with the 49ers getting reinforcements last week at every level of their defense. They also had an extra day to prepare for this rematch. This will be closer than 37-8, but it's another double-digit win for the 49ers.

56-38-3 IN LAST 97 NFL ATS PICKS | +1416
14-5 IN LAST 19 GB ATS PICKS | +849

13-7-1 IN LAST 21 SF ATS PICKS | +528

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Bill Marzano

TENNESSEE +7
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY | 1/19 | 3:05 PM EST
1:09 PM
In the NFL, its hard to beat a team twice in the same season, but that's exactly what the Titans will have to do if they are going to reach the Super Bowl after beating the Chiefs in an epic 35-32 game in early November. The Titans have a few numbers that are in their favor. The Chiefs are just 2-7 their last nine home playoff games, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is just 1-8 all-time vs the Titans in his career. Derrick Henry is an absolute beast, running over opposing defenses and putting up 188 in the first meeting with two touchdowns, and he will have another huge game here against the Chiefs defense. The Titans' defense has really stepped it up, holding the Patriots to just 13 points and the Ravens to 12. The Titans will have a shot to win this game outright, let alone cover the spread.

8-1 IN LAST 9 NFL PICKS | +690
2-1 IN LAST 3 TEN ATS PICKS | +89

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R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK

12:34 AM
SAN FRANCISCO -7.5
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | 1/19 | 6:40 PM EST
The 49ers showed in their win over the Vikings that the defense is back in top form, and that's bad news for a Packers offense that couldn't muster 200 yards in the regular-season meeting between the two teams. Points should be hard to come by for Aaron Rodgers and Co., but I do think the 49ers can score enough to cover this number. Green Bay's weakness on defense is defending the run, and Kyle Shanahan's team ran more than it threw during the regular season before dominating the Vikings last week. I don't think we're getting 37-8 again, but I can see something like 27-13.

13-6 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +643
35-6 IN LAST 41 GB ATS PICKS | +2827

14-8 IN LAST 22 SF ATS PICKS | +520
TENNESSEE +7
TENNESSEE @ KANSAS CITY | 1/19 | 3:05 PM EST
YESTERDAY 3:42 PM
Your default position on lines this big in conference title games should be to take the underdog, which is 10-3 ATS in the last 20 years when the spread is seven-plus points, unless you have a great reason not to. And as awesome as the Chiefs offense is, their questionable rush defense (29th in DVOA and yards per attempt) matches up perfectly for the Titans to keep this game close. The stats say these teams are pretty close in general, and my projection has the line at Chiefs -1.5 on a neutral, so I think we're getting some solid value with Tennessee here.

13-6 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +643
3-1 IN LAST 4 KC ATS PICKS | +191

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Micah Roberts

SAN FRANCISCO -7.5
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | 1/19 | 6:40 PM EST
YESTERDAY 3:10 PM
The Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against winning teams, but the lone loss over that span came Nov. 24 at San Francisco in the 49ers' 37-8 win. That's Green Bay's last loss, and San Francisco comes into this game just as strong -- and maybe stronger. The 49ers should be able to control the line on both sides of the ball and get the cover.

8-3 IN LAST 11 NFL ATS PICKS | +463
3-0 IN LAST 3 SF ATS PICKS | +300

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Spartan

3* Packers +7.5

[Lexdeoh20189]

WunderDog NFL Pick:

Game: Tennessee Titans (313) @ Kansas City Chiefs (314)
Time: Sunday 01/19 3:05 PM Eastern
Pick: OVER 52.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

[golden contender]

GC: NCAAB

Championship Sunday i here in the NFL and we have our Playoff Total of the Year going along with a TIER 1 Side. We also have the NBA Total of the Week with a Perfect Total system. NCAAB Comp Play below.

The Free Play for Championship Sunday is on Davidson as they have played the much tougher schedule and are a veteran group. Fordham has lost 8 of 9 and their only wins have been against early season Cream puffs. They have failed to cover the last 6 here at home. Long term they have a 2-22 spread mark in home dog losses. Davidson has covered 13 of 16 when they win as a road Favorite and the winning team in the series has covered all 8 times. Play on Davidson. On Championship Sunday our 100% Play off total of the Year is up along with an Executive Level TIER 1 side and the Perfect system NBA Total of the Week. Those with us last week in Divisional round cashed big. More damage today. See us on facebook to jump on. For the free play. Go with Davidson. Rob V- GC Sports

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Jeff Ma

Kansas City -7 Tennessee
San Francisco -7.5 Green Bay

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MTI

4.5-Star Titans +7 over CHIEFS The Chiefs are talking like they are already in the Superbowl just like the Ravens were in the opening round of the playoffs. The Chiefs are feeling invincible after their stunning, record-breaking, come-from-behind win over the Texans. The Titans, however, are a lot better than the Texans. We expect this one to come down to the final drive. We are taking the points.

The Chiefs are at home off a big win and the Titans have benefitted from a positive takeaway margin in each of their two playoff games. This actives a play-AGAINST system for which the Chiefs qualify. Teams that are at home on grass off a double-digit win are 0-22 ATS vs a team that has committed an average of fewer than 1.7 turnovers per game and had fewer turnovers than their opponent in each of their last two games. The SDQL text is:

H and surface=grass and NDIV and p:F and p:margin >= 10 and op:TOM<0 and opp:TOM<0 and oA(TO) < 1.7 and date >= 20101200

Teams in this spot have been an average of a 4.4 point favorite, but they have lost by an average score of 33.4 points to 16.9 points.

The Titans qualify for a play-ON system that states, road dogs of more than six points on grass vs a non-divisional opponent are 16-0 ATS with at least normal rest when they are off a game as a dog and they are facing a team that had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time in their last game and did not suffer a four-plus turnover margin. The SDQL text is:


A and surface=grass and NDIV and p and line > 6 and op:TOP/60 < 26 and rest>=6 and op:TOM<4 and season >= 2007

The Titans themselves are 9-0 ATS (10.00 ppg) off a game as a dog in which they had less than 100 passing yards, 8-0 ATS (10.25 ppg) when they are off a road game and they allowed at least five third down conversion in each of their last two games, and 9-0 ATS (11.89 ppg) as a dog on grass off a road game facing an opponent that is averaging fewer than 4.00 punts per game. The SDQL for the third of this trio is:

team=Titans and D and surface=grass and p:A and oA(punts)<4 and date>=20120923

Tennessee has been in this spot three times since the start of the 2018 season; they beat the Patriots, Chiefs and Ravens straight up as a significant underdog.

The Chiefs have had a lot of trouble covering a number at home vs a non-divisional opponent that does not turn the ball over. Since October 2016, Kansas City has hosted eight non-divisional opponents that have turned the ball over less than 1.25 times per game. They are 0-8 straight up and in their last three qualifying games from this season - vs the Colts, Texans and Packers - they lost all three straight up.

We are grabbing the points and sprinkling a bit on the moneyline as well.

MTis FORECAST: Titans 23 CHIEFS 20

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MTI

4.5-Star Packers at 49ers OVER 46.5 Aaron Rogers got the Packers one game away from the Super Bowl and Green Bay is going to rely on him again. Rogers has a raft of good receivers available to him, any of which could get six-plus catches and 100-plus yards. We are on the over.

In their game vs the Seahawks, Green Bay held the Seahawks to only three third down conversions while getting a fresh set of downs on third down nine times.

This, and the fact that they are a significant dog here, qualifies the Packers for a playoff-only system that is perfect in the history of the database. In the playoffs, six-plus point road dogs are 14-0 OU when they are off a home game in which they held their opponent to four or fewer third down conversions. The SDQL is an efficient:

A and line>=6 and p:H and po:3DM<=4 and playoffs=1

Last week against the Seahawks, Aaron Jones was targeted twice, but he only had four receiving yards. This activates a career-perfect performance indicator involving Mr Jones. Since has was drafted in 2017, Green Bay is 12-0 OU off a home game the previous week in which they completed at least 50% of their passes and Jones had less than 20 receiving yards. The SDQL text is:

team=Packers and Aaron Jones:receiving yards<20 and p:H and p:CP>=50 and NB and season >= 2017

In addition, the Packers are 8-0 OU (+8.62 ppg) on the road on grass after a game in which they scored zero field goals, 9-0 OU (+8.22 ppg) on the road vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home game in which they converted at least five third downs, and 8-0 OU (+11.38 ppg) without extra rest when they are off home win in which they had a 40-plus yard reception. The SDQL for the third of this trio is:

team=Packers and max:longest reception>=40 and rest<7 and p:HW and season >= 2016

Lastly, we have strong evidence that a big road dog vs an elite defensive team is a strong OVER play. Road dogs by at least a TD are 8-0 OU vs a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 320 yards of offense per game, flying over the total by an average of 21.88 ppg. The SDQL is:

A and line>=7 and p:F and oA(o:TY) < 320 and date>=20180114

Green Bay is going to come out aggressively and the 49rs have the offensive firepower to keep up.

MTis FORECAST: 49ERS 31 Packers 28

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FOOTBALL JESUS podcast/ text

NFL KC/Titans UNDER Game total

and in late game he has jimmy garoppolo UNDER 22 ½ pass completions

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BIG AL'S NFL GAME OF THE MONTH:

San Francisco 49ers

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Colin Cowherd

Kansas City Chiefs -7

(28-23)

San Francisco 49ers -7.5

(33-23)

**San Francisco would be the only game he would bet**

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Mike Missanelli


Packers
Chiefs