Saturday 2-15-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

PURCHASE

02/15/20, SA, Race 1, 12.30 PT
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.44.00 CLAIMING. Purse $35,000.
Claiming Price $32,000 (Maiden And Claiming Races For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered). FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 1-2-3) - $0.50 Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) - $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	5	French Getaway	7/2	Smith M E	Hess. Jr. Robert B.	JF
097.4468	6	Swamp Souffle	2-1	Franco G	Spawr William	TE
097.2348	2	Implicitly	12-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Rheinford Mark	W
097.1926	4	Start a Runnin(b-)	8-1	Flores E	Palma Hector O.	L
096.8581	3	Tequila Joe	3-1	Cedillo A	Glatt Mark
095.8247	1	Buster Douglas (BRZ)	6-1	Espinoza A	Pineda Milton G.	S
095.6387	7	Tough It Out(b+)	5-1	Prat F	Sherman Art	C

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to SA.

5	44.40	14.00	1.37	40.00	24	60	Morning Line Odds Less Than 4
6	44.40	14.00	1.37	40.00	24	60	Morning Line Odds Less Than 4
2	13.20	14.00	1.07	30.00	27	90	Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 1
4	36.60	23.80	1.08	34.25	75	219	Second Race After 45 Days Off
3	44.40	14.00	1.37	40.00	24	60	Morning Line Odds Less Than 4
1	36.60	23.80	1.08	34.25	75	219	Second Race After 45 Days Off
7	36.60	23.80	1.08	34.25	75	219	Second Race After 45 Days Off

Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fm/hd" - ROI 1.00, Win% 20.00
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	3	Tequila Joe	3-1	Cedillo A	Glatt Mark	F
099.4314	5	French Getaway	7/2	Smith M E	Hess. Jr. Robert B.	J
098.7714	6	Swamp Souffle	2-1	Franco G	Spawr William	TE
098.6154	2	Implicitly	12-1	Diaz. Jr. J	Rheinford Mark
097.5138	4	Start a Runnin(b-)	8-1	Flores E	Palma Hector O.	WL
097.2881	7	Tough It Out(b+)	5-1	Prat F	Sherman Art	C
097.1343	1	Buster Douglas (BRZ)	6-1	Espinoza A	Pineda Milton G.	S

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to SA.

3	210.00	65.60	2.84	42.11	24	57	Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 1
5	290.40	65.60	1.44	41.28	135	327	Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent
6	210.00	65.60	2.84	42.11	24	57	Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 1
2	210.00	65.60	2.84	42.11	24	57	Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 1
4	210.00	65.60	2.84	42.11	24	57	Morning Line Odds Greater Than or Equal to 1
7	290.40	65.60	1.44	41.28	135	327	Last Race Was Different Jockey With A Worse Win Percent
1	273.60	65.60	1.75	44.26	81	183	Last Race (Sprint or Route) Not Same As Today

Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fst/wf" - ROI 1.56, Win% 38.46

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 62

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 15, 2019 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ASEM 3/1
# 3 MAGICALCHIC 2/1
# 5 CHARMING WEEKEND 5/2

ASEM looks like the wager in here. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been competitive - 57 avg - of late. Has ran admirably in dirt sprint races. Is a solid choice - given the 59 Equibase speed fig from her most recent race. MAGICALCHIC - The Equibase class rating of today's contest is much lower than her last contest. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this group. CHARMING WEEKEND - She has a decent distance/surface win record - 3 for 15. Has been running very well lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #2 - Post: 3:59pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 106 Pelican S.

Rating:

#3 WIND OF CHANGE (BRZ) (ML=8/1)
#9 HE HATE ME (ML=3/1)
#2 DEBBIE'S PASSION (ML=6/1)
#1 MUCHO (ML=9/2)


WIND OF CHANGE (BRZ) - This horse is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. The return on investment when Centeno and Loza team up is terrific. Dropping 8 lbs from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. This equine gets shipped over here after running well at a major foreign track. A good sign in my opinion. A solid handicapping angle is Lasix - 1st time. Loza gives it to this one for this race. HE HATE ME - Horse made up some ground in the stretch last out on January 18th at Gulfstream Park. That contest is better than it looked. DEBBIE'S PASSION - This colt seems to run pretty good after a vacation. The improved speed figures over the last three races is strong. Carvajal drops him in this event conditioned properly and ready to go. MUCHO - You have to consider the solid works of late. This horse likes to win on different racing tracks. The switch in venue today may be a wake up call.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN (ML=5/2), #4 KING HUMOR (ML=5/1),

KILLYBEGS CAPTAIN - Not probable for this one to make a winning move with no recent good showings in a sprint clash. In the last affair this mount finished sixth. Doesn't bode well for his chances in today's event. Can't play this morning-line favorite off the extended layoff. KING HUMOR - This horse hasn't had any positive efforts in sprint events in the last couple of months. Had to give me lots more last time out. Never made much of an impact.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #3 WIND OF CHANGE (BRZ) on the nose if you can get odds of 4/1 or more

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

02/15/20, GP, Race 7, 3.04 ET
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.44.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $50,000.
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD
$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta - $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 7-12)
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	10	Walk Up Music	10-1	Lopez P	Delacour Arnaud	JTEL
097.5045	12	Oxide	6-1	Ortiz J L	Kenneally Eddie
096.0728	9	Or'effice	5-1	Saez L	Hennig Mark A.
095.9395	14	Scanno	8-1	Saez L	Albertrani Thomas
095.6038	16	Buy Me Candy	12-1	Prado E S	Correas. IV Ignacio	FC
095.5282	4	Turn of Events	4-1	Vasquez M A	Maker Michael J.
094.7865	13	Juulstone	10-1	Ortiz J L	Medina Robert
094.1356	8	Sandro the Great	10-1	Gaffalione T	Clement Christophe
093.4763	11	Elusive Ruler(b+)	12-1	Landeros C	Wilkes Ian R.
093.1810	7	Hooyah	8-1	Maragh R	Jerkens James A.
092.9972	6	Tapaloof(b+)	6-1	Reyes L R	Kimmel John C.
091.7458	1	Tapage	20-1	Rendon J	McLaughlin Kiaran P.
091.5463	15	Skyray	12-1	Rendon J	Arnold. II George R.
091.0418	5	Water Wall	15-1	Prado E S	Lynch Brian A.	W
090.7959	2	Win d'Oro	10-1	Torres C A	Casse Mark E.	S
089.7125	3	Paintsville	20-1	Panici L	Arnold. II George R.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets for this condition. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to GP.

10	55.20	25.80	1.58	43.75	21	48	Best Trainer and Earnings
12	13.20@	12.20	1.16	36.59	15	41	Third Start
9	13.20@	12.20	1.16	36.59	15	41	Third Start
16	47.00@	28.20	1.64	27.03	10	37	Second Start
4	13.20@	12.20	1.16	36.59	15	41	Third Start
11	21.60	12.20	1.36	40.00	12	30	Blinkers On From Off
6	21.60	12.20	1.36	40.00	12	30	Blinkers On From Off
5	13.20@	12.20	1.16	36.59	15	41	Third Start
2	10.20	9.40	1.57	33.33	3	9	Carries Apprentice Weight
3	13.20@	12.20	1.16	36.59	15	41	Third Start

Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fm/hd" - ROI 0.86, Win% 23.08
@ Profit has been averaged for multiple race types.
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser

100.0000	10	Walk Up Music	10-1	Lopez P	Delacour Arnaud	JTEL
096.3947	12	Oxide	6-1	Ortiz J L	Kenneally Eddie
096.2568	9	Or'effice	5-1	Saez L	Hennig Mark A.
096.2382	4	Turn of Events	4-1	Vasquez M A	Maker Michael J.
094.6288	16	Buy Me Candy	12-1	Prado E S	Correas. IV Ignacio	FC
094.3721	8	Sandro the Great	10-1	Gaffalione T	Clement Christophe
094.0423	14	Scanno	8-1	Saez L	Albertrani Thomas
093.8617	7	Hooyah	8-1	Maragh R	Jerkens James A.
093.5803	5	Water Wall	15-1	Prado E S	Lynch Brian A.	W
093.0979	1	Tapage	20-1	Rendon J	McLaughlin Kiaran P.
092.7438	11	Elusive Ruler(b+)	12-1	Landeros C	Wilkes Ian R.
092.6890	2	Win d'Oro	10-1	Torres C A	Casse Mark E.	S
092.5616	6	Tapaloof(b+)	6-1	Reyes L R	Kimmel John C.
092.3132	13	Juulstone	10-1	Ortiz J L	Medina Robert
091.5823	15	Skyray	12-1	Rendon J	Arnold. II George R.
090.8678	3	Paintsville	20-1	Panici L	Arnold. II George R.

After scratches, a horse Pgm# with profit must be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by race type and exclusive to GP.

10	21.60	10.60	1.28	61.54	24	39	Best Trainer and Earnings
12	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
9	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
4	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
16	17.60@	16.80	1.18	34.00	17	50	Second Start
8	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
14	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
7	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
5	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
1	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
11	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
2	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
6	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
13	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
15	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW
3	7.80	18.20	1.02	26.67	48	180	Race Type MSW

Top rated horse with "Race Surface Not fst/wf" - ROI 0.97, Win% 37.84
@ Profit has been accumulated for multiple race types.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

February 15: Stakes Picks & Previews

February 13, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian

It’s another big weekend of racing, with major stakes at Gulfstream, Laurel, Santa Anita, the Fair Grounds and Golden Gate Fields.

Ready to play them all? Xpressbet has you covered. We’ve got wagering and live video on all of the big races, as well as picks and analysis from top handicappers like Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk, Jerry Shottenkirk and more.

Plus, when you play this weekend I highly recommend checking out our Beat the Host Handicapping Tournament. It’s FREE to enter and your bankroll consists of just ten $5 Win bets on top races from Gulfstream and Santa Anita. This week’s top performers split $2,000 in cash prizes. Plus, Beat our host, Tom Quigley from Santa Anita, to punch your ticket to the $16,000 Beat the Host Championship Round on Saturday, March 7.

And if you need some incentive to play – and a look at what Saturday’s big races are – I’ve got you covered.

Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream is always a great jumping off point for winter racing and Saturday’s 12-race card is no exception. The feature race is the G3, $150,000 Royal Delta Stakes (Race 11, 5:04PM ET). Named for the three-time Eclipse Award Champion and two-time Breeders’ Cup winner, the Royal Delta attracted a field of just six. On the bright side, it marks the return of G1 winner RESTLESS RIDER (last seen in the Kentucky Oaks) and G3 winner GOLDEN AWARD (last seen in November at Aqueduct). Sprinkle in a pair of Saffie Joseph Jr. trained starters – COOKIE DOUGH and QUEEN NEKIA – and this should be a phenomenal betting race.

My colleague, Jeremy Plonk, also handicapped this race as our Xpressbet Race of the Week. Get his picks here.

1. Cookie Dough
2. Golden Award
3. Queen Nekia

Fair Grounds

The weekend’s top Kentucky Derby prep races run through the Fair Grounds on Saturday, with a pair of editions of the G2, $400,000 Risen Star which go as Races 12 (6:38PM ET) and 13 (7:12 PM ET). In the first division, G3 LeComte winner, ENFORCEABLE, takes on SILVER STATE, MR. MONOMOY and SCABBARD, who finished 2nd, 3rd and 6th in that race. In the second division, California invader ANNEAU D’OR headlines a field that also includes runners from the potent barns of Bill Mott (MODERNIST), Ralph Nicks (LIAM’S LUCKY CHARM), Mark Casse (LYNN’S MAP) and Saffie Joseph Jr. (NY TRAFFIC). The card also includes the G3, $200,000 Mineshaft – Race 9 at 5:01PM ET – (including HOFBURG and SILVER DUST), the G3 $150,000 Fair Grounds Stakes – Race 10 at 5:32 PM ET – (starring SYNCHORNY and DONTBLAMEROCKET) and the G2, $300,000 Rachel Alexandra (Race 11, 6:05PM ET), featuring the return of BRITISH IDIOM.

Risen Star Division 1 Picks

1. Silver State
2. Blackberry Wine
3. Enforceable

Risen Star Division 2 Picks

1. Liam’s Lucky Charm
2. Addeau d’Or
3. Mr. Big News

Santa Anita

Santa Anita’s Saturday feature is the G2, $200,000 Santa Monica (Race 8, 7:00PM ET) and what this race lacks in field size (just five entered) it makes up for in class. The one-eyed HARD NOT TO LOVE won the Opening Day G1 La Brea Stakes and is 4-for-5 at Santa Anita, making her a hard horse not to root for this weekend. MOTHER MOTHER was third in the La Brea (her first start since May) and she wheeled right back to win the Kalookan Queen for fun two weeks later over LADY NINJA, who is back for another crack. That daughter of Majesticperfection won the G3 LA Woman Stakes last October.

1. Mother Mother
2. Hard Note to Love
3. Lady Ninja

Laurel Park

Stakes races are the name of the game at Laurel on Saturday as the card is topped by the G3 $250,000 General George (Race 8, 3:49PM ET) and G3 $250,000 Barbara Fritchie (3:20PM ET). It also includes the $100,000 John B. Campbell (Race 4, 1:50PM ET), $100,000 Wide Country (Race 5, 2:18PM ET) and $100,000 Miracle Wood (Race 6, 2:51PM ET). So long story short, there’s no shortage of quality stakes horses set to compete. Entries include Firenze Fire (General George), Anna’s Bandit (Barbara Fritchie) and Alwaysmining (John Campbell). Plus, Laurel’s wager menu is a big draw. The card includes a pair of 12% Takeout Pick 5’s (Races 1-5 and Races 5-9).

Barbara Fritchie Picks

1. Saguaro Row
2. Anna’s Bandit
3. Majestic Reason

General George Picks

1. Wicked Trick
2. Firenze Fire
3. Tiz He the One

Golden Gate Fields

Saturday’s feature is the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby (Race 7, 6:45PM ET). The ‘Derby,’ a Preakness Stakes ‘Win and You’re In’ prep race, attracted a field of 11, headlined by Bob Baffert’s AZUL COAST and Richard Baltas’ CZECHMIGHT. By virtue of his runner-up performance in Santa Anita’s G3 Sham behind stablemate Authentic, AZUL COAST is probably going to be the favorite in this race. He brings jockey Rafael Bejarano with him and stands out on paper. The only pause is whether or not he a) handles Golden Gate’s synthetic surface and b) finds a pace to run at. Many races at Golden Gate are slow early/faster late and it can be tough for closers to find racing room for their kick.

Golden Gate’s Late Pick 4 is a 1 Million Point Split bet at Xpressbet. Hit it to win your share!

1. Azul Coast
2. Indian Peak
3. Czechmight

[Can'tPickAWinner]

My Saturday Fair Grounds All-Stakes Late Pick 4 Ticket

February 14, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

If you’re playing the All-Stakes Pick 4 Saturday at Fair Grounds (Races 10 - 13), hopefully you’re in the mood for the Risen Star Stakes, because you get two of them due to the race attracting 23 entrants and splitting into two divisions that will run as Races 12 and 13 on the card.

The Risen Star always lures some of the best 3-year-olds and is a stepping stone to the Louisiana Derby and success in those two races usually earns a horse a ticket to Kentucky. The splitting of the race makes each a strong handicapping challenge.

Four horses made the cut for the 1st division on my suggested $72 Pick 4 ticket – Silver State, Enforceable, Mr. Monomoy and Scabbard.

Three more runners - Liam’s Lucky Charm, Anneau d’Or and Finnick the Fierce - are on my ticket from the 2nd division.

Enforceable is the lukewarm 7-2 favorite in the 1st division, while Anneau d’Or is lined at 9-5 in the 2nd division.

Enforceable took to the Fair Grounds track in fine fashion as he rallied strongly for a win in the G3 Lecomte. Silver State and Mr Monomoy were 2nd and 3rd, respectively. The Lecomte marked the 1st time he was ridden by Julien Leparoux, who is up for the return engagement.

Silver State has raced only three times but has shown a lot of talent in each. After a easy maiden score and a second by a nose in an allowance at Churchill, he moved to New Orleans and was moving extremely well at the end of the Lecomte. The additional distance could play to him nicely.

Mr. Monomoy was just behind Silver State in the Lecomte and improved from a second in an allowance over the main track. Scabbard ran an even 5th in the Lecomte but has several good performances on his form. He probably needed the start in the Lecomte and he looks ready for the added ground.

Anneau d’Or is the deserving favorite in the nightcap, mainly because he was second in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Futurity and 2nd in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Joel Rosario takes over the riding assignment.

Like several others, the 1 1-8th miles could be a challenge for Anneau d’Or, but he does have a distance pedigree in his favor (by Medaglia d’Oro).

Liam’s Lucky Charm comes in off an effort as sharp as any recent performance by any in the field as he really uncorked an eye opener at Tampa Bay Downs, where he won the Pasco Stakes by 5.5 lengths in a sizzling 1:21 3-5 for seven furlongs – just four-fifths of season of the track record set last year by Win Win Win. He was 3rd in his only two-turn effort (at Gulfstream) and could try to control this one from the outset.

Finnick the Fierce was 4th in the Lecomte and could benefit greatly from a fast pace. He closed for 2nd in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year and the distance of the Risen Star should be to his liking.

Here’s a suggested play in the Fair Grounds All Stakes Pick 4, which runs from races 10 through 13:

Race 10: #2 Synchrony, #5 Dontblamerocket, #8 Tone Broke, #9 Captivating Moon, #10 Space Mountain, #12 Midnight Tea Time.
Race 11: #6 British Idiom, #7 Finite.
Race 12: #2 Silver State, #8 Enforceable, #9 Mr. Monomoy, #11 Scabbard.
Race 13: #5 Liam’s Lucky Charm, #8 Anneau d’Or, #10 Finnick the Fierce

50-cent Pick 4 ticket: 2-5-8-9-10-12 with 6-7 with 2-8-9-11 with 5-8-10 ($72).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, February 15: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies
by Jeff Siegel

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Tequila Joe; 5-French Getaway; 6-Swamp Souffle; 7-Tough It Out

Forecast: The Saturday opener is an inscrutable mid-level claiming affair over nine furlongs. Rarely do we go four-deep in our rolling exotic play but this one requires such as spread. Tequila Joe moves up a notch to the $32,000 level but is more than capable of winning off his best race. He gets an extra furlong to work with and may be capable of producing the last run. Tough It Out is re-equipped with blinkers and switches to F. Prat after finishing a close sixth in the same race that Tequila Joe just finished third in. The veteran son of Grazen is a grinder that shows two prior wins over the local lawn. French Getaway exits a much tougher race and this return to the claiming ranks could wake him up. He’s another that should be doing his best work from off the pace. Swamp Souffle won the common race with Tequila Joe and Tough It Out and must be considered, though he has history of following up his victories with a clunker. Anything goes here.


RACE 2: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kirsch Truffle; 7-Slew South

Forecast: Slew SouthKirsch Truffle, away since April and making her first start since joining the P. Miller barn and just her fourth overall, could easily be better than shown. The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs seems reasonable, and from the rail under A. Cedillo the daughter of Trappe Shot can be expected to show tactical speed.


RACE 3: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Leatherneck; 4-Bad Beat

Forecast: Leatherneck is back sprinting where he belongs and a repeat of his solid maiden $50,000 debut win at Los Alamitos should be good enough to beat this starter’s allowance field. This six and one-half furlong distance seems ideal for this late-running son of Congrats, so if he can a get a bit of help up front the J. Bonde-trained colt can be along in time. We’ll also include Bad Beat. The Danza gelding returned off a six month layoff to run quite well when crossing the wire second (subsequently disqualified to third) in a similar affair on grass last month while earning by far a career top speed figure, and with another forward move today he should be in the thick of things throughout. He’ll race without blinkers for the first time (love that angle) and projects to be part of the pace throughout.


RACE 4: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Sky Jumper

Forecast: Sky Jumper is the obvious top pick but his pattern is suspicious. Purchased for $200,00 as a 2-year-old in Ocala last year, the B. Baffert-trained gelding performed reasonably well when a close third in straight maiden company on turf last month but today is being tossed away for $50,000, hardly a sign of confidence from his connections. That said, the son of Jump Start continues to look good in the morning, so if he has at least one good one left he should easily handle this assignment. You can play him as a no-value rolling exotic single or just sit it out.


RACE 5: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Satanta; 6-Factorial; 8-Battle of Memphis

Forecast: This turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers has a number of question marks that makes it difficult, so we’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Factorial may be as good as any. The D. O’Neill barn hasn’t enjoyed much of a meeting so far, but this gelding returns to his claim level and has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level, so we’re expecting one of his better efforts. A willing third in a starter’s allowance dash over this course and distance last month, he’s always been most effective when held up early and allowed to run late and we’re expecting that type of strategy to be employed today. Battle of Memphis sporting the blinkers off angle, turns back to a sprint, drops to a realistic level, and is another with past numbers that make him dangerous. The Irish-bred gelding has primarily been a two-turner throughout his career but we suspect this trip will suit him better. Satanta broke his maiden at first asking like a nice prospect but hasn’t been close since. This drop into restricted claiming company could make a big difference, as could the switch to grass. With F. Prat taking the call, the J. Mullins-trained gelding deserves one more chance.


RACE 6: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B-
Single: 1-Bowl of Spaghetti

Forecast: Bowl of Spaghetti, away since April but returning in a logical spot, doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claimer so we’ll put him on top strictly by default (it’s either him, or anybody). When last seen, the P. Miller-trained gelding flashed good speed before weakening late in a straight maiden turf sprint, and if comes back as well or better he just might be able to outrun this weak field. How weak? Calder Vale, a 24-race maiden, looks like a major player on pure form. We’ll use Bowl of Spaghetti as a single in rolling exotic play single but otherwise not get involved.


RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Kakistocracy

Forecast: Kakistocracy is a progressive son of Point of Entry fresh from a maiden win over this course and distance in his second career outing and with a very sharp recent workout since that early January win he’s likely to produce another significant forward move is likely. Drawn comfortably inside to ensure a ground-saving trip in this first-level allowance optional ciaimer, the C. Gaines-trained gelding retains D. Van Dyke and projects to draft into a comfortable second flight position and then have every chance to quicken when ready from the quarter pole home. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.


RACE 8: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Hard Not to Love; 5-Mother Mother

Forecast: Hard Not to Love won the La Brea S.-G1 over this track and distance on opening day in late December and will be favored to repeat, but while she certainly it’s no slam dunk. The one-eyed daughter of Hard Spun has a negative four pound weight shift compared to chief rival Mother Mother, who finished a good third in the La Brea after being forced into a hot pace duel. The early fractions of this race should be considerably softer, so after winning the Kalookan Queen S. last month the B. Baffert-trained filly could be set for another forward move. Truthfully, these two are very difficult to separate, so rather than split hairs we’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.


RACE 9: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Absolute Unit; 7-Frasard; 8-Jurgen

Forecast: The finale is a fairly competitive maiden special weight turf miler for 3-year-olds that has at least three major contenders, all of which are worthy of inclusion in rolling exotic play. Absolute Unit stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to improve as the distances increase, so we’re expecting another forward move from the son of Will Take Charge after a strong runner-up effort in a grass dash last month that earned him a career top number. F. Prat stays aboard and should have this P. Eurton-trained colt within striking distance every step of the way. Frasard was burned up on a hot pace in a recent highly-rated nine furlong maiden grass affair and paid the price late, but at this shorter trip with patient tactics the L. Powell-trained English-bred colt should be much more formidable in the final stages. This switch to D. Van Dyke ensures the proper type of trip and ride. Jurgen made his U.S. debut under similar conditions on New Year’s Day and didn’t do badly, winding up fourth beaten just a length after being somewhat intimated when trying to rally along the rail in the final furlong. The son of Kitten’s Joy certainly can improve for a stable that has solid stats with second-off-layoff runners.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, February 15: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis
by Al Cimaglia

The 0.50 Early Pick 4 at the Meadowlands this evening starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Saying Grace N (8-1)-Tetrick is in the bike, so a positive driver change and get post relief from the 9-hole. Does appear to fit but needs the right steer. Using with the driver change and thinking there's a close-up trip in the cards.
3-Bell I No (5/2)-Stepped-up to this level last week and raced the short way around to finish 2nd. That effort was after skipping a start, looks like a major player as Miller could be more aggressive this evening.
7-Mindtrip (5-1)-Callahan chose #5 and so Gingras takes a spin. That change signals a blast out to get on the engine, which is usually a better formula for this 7-year-old. Using instead of #6 the 2-1 program chalk.

Race 7

1-Revelry (7/2)-Fits here plus Tetrick is between the pipes and he has won with this gelding before. Going from the 9-hole to the rail and has the gate speed to start well. Could take his 2nd picture at the Big M in 6 starts.
4-Machiavelli (3-1)-This is a soft spot for dropper who comes off a 10-win year in 2019. But not liking the fact the Surick trainee is 0-15 in East Rutherford. Thinking Miller will make an early move to the top and take an overdue picture at the Big M.

Race 8

1-Jet Airway (5-1)-Beat the $20k claimers handily on 2/1 and now appears to have drawn into a favorable condition. Callahan's choice over #4 does well at the Big M and may offer a square price.
4-Party Boy (8-1)-Loses Callahan and Tetrick steers and finally draws well. Probably will be put in play early and has the speed to cash the top check. Looking for a nice price in this race and will leave #8-#9, the ML chalks off the ticket.
5-Statement Made A (9/2)-Got on the engine and didn't look back versus easier. Like #1 has skipped a start but McCarthy will be steering. Small barn has been hot, best to respect because another top effort puts this gelding in the hunt.

Race 9

2-Crusades (10-1)-Bumps up a couple of notches after a sharp score. This post draw shouldn't hurt chances, and Gingras is back to steer Burke trainee who should be a solid price.
6-Sams Triple Crown (9/2)-Stuck with the 9-hole in last 2 and now Callahan gets the call. This will be the 4th start off the bench, 3rd straight start at the Big M and could be sitting on a big try.
7-Stendahl Hanover (7/2)-Beaten even money chalk made an early move when dropped to this level. Maybe a different script will be followed tonight as he usually does come off cover.
8-Hoo Nien A (8-1)-Probably will need the right trip and pace to win from this post but this is a race without a standout. Best to respect an honest horse who is at the right level to be there at the wire.

My Ticket

Race 6) 1,3,7

Race 7) 1,4

Race 8) 1,4,5

Race 9) 2,6,7,8

Total Ticket Cost) $36 for $0.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Massachusetts +15 Over Dayton

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, February 15, 2020


2/15 03:00 PM PT / 6:00 PM ET

CB (737) UNLV VS (738) NEW MEXICO

Take: (738) NEW MEXICO

Reason: Your free play from Jim Feist for Saturday, February 15, 2020 is in the college basketball scheduled contest between UNLV and New Mexico. Your free play is on 738. New Mexico -3 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SATURDAY: FLORIDA-INTERNATIONAL -2 over Southern Miss

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Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Georgia Bulldogs/Texas A&M Aggies over 134

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Roz Wins

Roz's SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 2020 Free Pick
CBK
2/15 03:00 PM Take : (738) NEW MEXICO

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Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Richmond - 1 1/2

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#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: North Texas Mean Green - 7 1/2