Wednesday 2-19-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #4

#5 S U M Racer	Has spent quite some time in with better groups than this, and she scored when in with similar a few starts back. Guessing she's tough today.
#8 Lesedi	Tactical type can get a really good run of things from the outside, and her recent running lines stack up nicely with the best in here.
#2 Miss Perfecta	Huge effort in the first turf try off the claim in that last start, but I don't totally trust her to repeat that this time around at what will likely be an underlaid price.
Race Summary	S U M Racer is a reliable type who can probably stay in close enough range in a spot with a soft pace likely, and something like her last would probably do the job.

Turf Paradise - Race #5

#7 Nat Gio	Finisher might just get the right kind of pace to set things up for her as there are multiple forward players set to do battle early.
#5 Beau Rocks	Another who figures to be running late, she'll go turf to dirt while cutting back with a solid pace likely in front of her.
#6 Surf Kitten	Draws widest of the pace, but she still doesn't have much of a pressing gear of any kind, so she's a real candidate to chase and fade today.
Race Summary	Nat Gio should get a really nice setup with several need-the-lead types likely to vie for it out of the gate. He seems likely to offer a fair price, too.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#4 Holy Frazier	Deep closer should appreciate some added ground in this spot, and he does own some pretty competitive back turf form.
#7 Bay Area	Reliable type tends to sit further off it on the grass than he does on the main, but he owns a pretty decent finishing kick that could get him into the frame late.
#2 Peach Time	Earned a step up off a couple of really nice efforts prior to this. The guy who beat him last out will be in here once again, but he can turn the tables at a much more attractive number.
Race Summary	Holy Frazier is worth a bit of a price look in here with some back form that stacks up with these and a relentless finishing kick that may be aided by the additional sixteenth today.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Dover Downs - Race #2

#1 LUCKY ARTIST A	Something went amiss near far turn, banking on a bounce back.
#5 SAYULITA	Chased short-priced winners in last two starts, gets Callahan.
#6 KEYSTONE IZZY	Steady check-getter at Rosecroft, makes third start of year.
Race Summary	Lucky Artist A appeared poised to make a 3-wide bid off a contested pace into the far turn, but she lost her action and back-pedaled through the field as the favorite. She is an all-or-nothing type play, so give her the nod at a better price.

Buffalo - Race #2

#8 MEAN PAULINE	Pinned inside, rallied too late while 4-wide, meets similar rivals.
#5 WHO’S GOT THE MOVE	Earned top speed fig in field in ‘open’ company in second start back.
#4 JAG OUT	Led at stretch call in 4 of 6 this year, won twice by a neck.
Race Summary	Mean Pauline showed good speed in the same spot last out, then was trapped 3-deep on the rail and closed with a 4-wide burst. She can turn the tables on several of the same rivals with a clean trip. Play a 4-5-8 exacta box.

Northfield Park - Race #3

#6 DOMINO BOY	Outran odds in last pair, chased faves through 1:00.4 middle half in latest.
#5 EXPENSIVE BAIT	One to beat if he stays flat, provisional driver clicking at high win rate.
#1 THE COLDEST	Mare couldn’t keep up with the faves, draws rail for 27th go-round.
Race Summary	Domino Boy ran second at 54-1 and got up for third behind the favorites at 36-1 last week, earning a playback in a field difficult to predict who will be left trotting at the end. Play 6-1 and 6-5 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#1 Elzabe's On Board	Was 3rd and ran evenly going 6F on dirt; has only one turf start but can be on or close to the lead here and could be difficult to catch. Makes 1st of the claim by Glyshaw.
#2 Juan Pablo	Rallied steadily and was up in time in his latest and takes on tougher here; could improve in his 2nd off a layoff.
#4 On a Spree	Missed by a head in his 1st at these conditions and can adjust to any pace; keeps Quinonez aboard and could get a perfect trip.
Race Summary	Elzabe's On Board can take advantage of his speed and inside post and should have a presence for every furlong of this one and should be able to stretch out to this distance.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#6 Teacher Drama	Has been in much tougher races and takes a drop from a difficult optional allowance; showed speed and wilted in that one but likely will find the courage in this spot.
#1 Peace Taker	Won his debut try and was claimed by Dale Bennett; closed nicely and should be tough right back.
#4 Melissani	Responded with a victory last time as he dropped to the maiden-claiming ranks; Was claimed by the Silva stable, which is off to a 22-percent start.
Race Summary	Teacher Drama can make the pace after dropping out of better and fastest races; in a good place for her 1st since October.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8

#5 The Stifler	Drops in class and turns back from a long string of good distance races; ran evenly in his latest, had a pair of good works since then and can make a run at these sprinters. Trainer Rigattieri off to a 33-percent start.
#3 Nick the Cardshark	Ran a good 2nd last out and can be dangerous with a well-timed move; has enough speed to stay in range early and can fit it out.
#2 Nick Can Fix	Has the class edge but hasn't been to the races since Nov. '18; Won three straight at mid-Atlantic tracks in Feb '17 and has plenty of works for his return.
Race Summary	Many of The Stifler's distance races had fractions as good as a lot of sprints at this level and he should benefit from the shorter distance.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 1-2) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $7,800 • Post: 12:55
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 19 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. SEA MYRTLE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SEA MYRTLE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PAPA MAMBO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a lay off. PARTY HOSTESS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SOUGHT MORE PEP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BLUE CHIP BETTY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
5	SEA MYRTLE	4/1	5/1
2	PAPA MAMBO	7/2	7/1
4	PARTY HOSTESS	5/2	7/1
6	SOUGHT MORE PEP	2/1	9/1
3	BLUE CHIP BETTY	8/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	BLUE CHIP BETTY	3	8/1	Front-runner	80	78	84.8	76.2	69.2
1	SHARP HOLIDAY	1	6/1	Front-runner	80	73	70.4	72.0	63.0
6	SOUGHT MORE PEP	6	2/1	Stalker	79	81	65.6	76.8	69.3
2	PAPA MAMBO	2	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	85	82	64.2	77.0	72.5
4	PARTY HOSTESS	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	85	83	64.0	77.6	72.1
5	SEA MYRTLE	5	4/1	Trailer	85	80	49.0	78.2	71.7

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 80 • Purse: $27,100 • Post: 7:49P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * FU MAN SUE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LUNAR PRIZE: Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. YES SIR COLONEL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	FU MAN SUE	5/2	7/2
1	LUNAR PRIZE	3/1	5/1
6	YES SIR COLONEL	3/1	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LUNAR PRIZE	1	3/1	Stalker	80	71	69.2	67.3	62.3
7	TOP HAT TREASON	7	7/2	Stalker	69	63	65.1	53.1	45.6
3	FU MAN SUE	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	81	79	64.2	74.0	72.0
6	YES SIR COLONEL	6	3/1	Trailer	82	70	55.8	66.6	61.1

Unknown Running Style: LORD JACQUE (12/1) [Jockey: Davis Jacqueline A - Trainer: Albright George R], SIR JAMES (10/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Julio A - Trainer: Graci Kimberly A], FUTURE STAR (10/1) [Jockey: Flores Emilio - Trainer: McClellan Erin C].

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#7 WOODBURN HALL (ML=5/1)
#2 OULOG (ML=20/1)


WOODBURN HALL - Trainer Figgins moves this horse down the ladder based on class rating points to face weaker company. Look for a strong performance with this class drop. OULOG - The Dec 13th event at Charles Town was at a class level of (77). Dropping down the class scale significantly, so he should be in a good spot. Look for this gelding to show better right here in this race. Last affair at Charles Town finishing seventh on a sloppy track is no sign of his true talent.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WHIRLAWAY R V F (ML=5/2), #6 VILLAGE PRINCE (ML=3/1), #1 ARE U (ML=7/2),

WHIRLAWAY R V F - The chalk horse is vulnerable here with the lack of morning blow outs. VILLAGE PRINCE - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't finish first. Tough to invest in him on the front end. ARE U - Hard to bet this less than sharp equine the way he ran inconsistently last time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 WOODBURN HALL is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

02/19/20, TAM, Race 8, 4.00 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 CLAIMING. Purse $17,200.
Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,000, allowed 2 lbs. FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Super High 5
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	6	Legacy Azteca	9/2	Morales P	Rodriguez Darien	TF	61.11 1.71/$1
098.48	3	Nick the Cardshark	7/2	Camacho S	Delgado Jose H.	S	31.71 0.83/$1
096.78	2	Nick Can Fix	4-1	Hernandez O	Nations Keith	EC	38.98 1.33/$1
095.99	7	Spectacular Road	6-1	Ferrer J C	Bennett Dale	L	38.79 1.09/$1
095.54	5	The Stifler	10-1	Gallardo A A	Rigattieri John	J	38.98 1.33/$1
095.27	4	Saucy Don	3-1	Delgado D	Carvajal. Jr. Luis		31.71 0.83/$1
094.82	1	Wild Winter	5-1	Allen M	Allen Lisa	W	42.50 1.16/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.71, ROI 0.68/$1

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 88

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 19 ALLOWED 3 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 D'DAWSON 6/1
# 1 MAN CAMP 3/1
# 7 ALLURING ACTOR 5/1

D'DAWSON is the most favorable bet in this race. Looks quite good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in dirt sprint races recently. Wagerers should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. MAN CAMP - Win percentage with this jockey and trainer combo - 30 percent - sound. Has to be carefully examined versus this group displaying very good figs recently and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 69 under similar conditions. ALLURING ACTOR - Have to sense that this equine will run well again this time around. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the speed rating - 84 - of his last race.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 79

FOR TEXAS ACCREDITED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 WITT'S GOLD 20/1
# 2 JESSICAS ARCH 8/1
# 6 LITTLE AVENGER 4/1

WITT'S GOLD looks strong to best this field and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. He has garnered very good figures under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this group of horses. Will probably be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the contest. LITTLE AVENGER - This colt looks like a longshot with a chance. This horse is in the upper half of this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,700 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#2 TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH (ML=4/1)
#5 TIZ A RUSH (ML=2/1)
#6 MAKE THE CALL (ML=6/1)


TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH - I think Mahoning Valley Race Course players know a good thing when they see the rider/trainer twosome of Barbaran and Rone. Their win percent together has been wonderful. Jock hops up on board after getting to know the horse by riding in the last race. That's always a good thing. This gelding's last speed rating is high enough to prove victorious here, I'll wager on him back again in today's event. TIZ A RUSH - Winless in his last three starts, this gelding's last win came on Nov 13th at the same level and distance of today's race. Ran a lackluster race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour last out. Racing without the off-track conditions puts this gelding at the top of my contenders roll call. MAKE THE CALL - The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. Forgive the off the board finish on the off track last time around the track. Under better track conditions, has a chance today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ROYAL'D (ML=6/5),

ROYAL'D - You should normally gamble against morning-line choices that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last few weeks. This gelding hasn't been getting the job done as the favorite.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 TOTELLYOUTHETRUTH on the nose if you can get odds of 9/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Tony Brown

Tony’s *5 star NCAA free pick

Syracuse vs. Louisville, 02/19/2020 19:00 EDT

Total: -105/+146 Over

Sportsbook:
Bookmaker

Fp: both teams can score and Cuse plays defense like it’s optional on the road. I expect buckets early and often making the over my ncaa free play .

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Brian Bitler

Brian’s 9* CBB No Non-Sense Cover

Indiana vs. Minnesota, 02/19/2020 21:00 EDT

Point Spread: +6/-115 Indiana

Sportsbook:
Bookmaker

Both teams had disastrous last games but I think the gophers are toast and the Hoosiers still have fight left in them. They have been hearing constantly how they can not get it done on the road this season. I see a breakout game for them as they make their typical push for one of the final seeds in the big dance just around the corner this road win is imperative to the cause and simply just to many points for Minnesota to cover at this point.

Invest 9 units on Indiana rotation #845

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Tulane +8 Over SMU

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Wednesday, February 19, 2020

2/19 06:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM ET

CB (839) KANSAS STATE VS (840) TEXAS TECH

Take: (840) TEXAS TECH

Reason: Your free play from Jim Feist for Wednesday, February 19, 2020 is in the college basketball contest between Kansas State and Texas Tech. Your free play from Jim is on 840. Texas Tech -11.5 points.

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR WEDNESDAY: LASALLE -7½ over Fordham