Friday 2-21-20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:55 AM

Hunter Price

Feb 21 '20, 2:30 PM in 5h
Tennis | Egor Gerasimov vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Play on: Egor Gerasimov +160 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Egor Gerasimov +160

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:55 AM

Jimmy Boyd

Feb 21 '20, 3:05 PM in 6h
MLB | Rangers vs Royals
Play on: Rangers +105 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Rangers +105

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:56 AM

Ray Monohan

Feb 21 '20, 8:05 PM in 11h
NBA | Nuggets vs Thunder
Play on: Nuggets +2 -111 at pinnacle

Nuggets +2
The Denver Nuggets 38-17 (27-25-3 ATS) go on the road for Friday and take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. 33-22 (36-19 ATS) The point spread in this matchup favors the home Thunder by -2, and the Over/Under is set at 215.
Injuries for this one. Denver's Will Barton is OUT, Plumlee is OUT and Porter Jr is a GTD. For OKC Roberson is a GTD, and Bazley is OUT.
It's crazy to think about this but its a FACT. The Nuggets are going to try to win against Oklahoma City for the eighth straight time. What then you ask makes the Thunder the small favorite in this matchup? Oklahoma City shares sixth place in the West with the Mavericks and have won 10 of their past 13 games.
Betting trends to consider. Denver are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against Oklahoma City, 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against Oklahoma City, and are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road. Oklahoma City are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Oklahoma City are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Denver.
These two have played once already this year. The Nuggets took down OKC 110-102 Dec. 14, and I don't think the Thunder have anyone that can hang with the JOKER and Jamal Murray. In that December win Denver held a 44-37 advantage on the boards, that will be my X-factor tonight. Jokic is averaging 20PPG and 10RPG,. Murray is averaging 29PPG on 57% shooting over the past five games.
Play the Dog on Friday night. Nuggets +2.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Friday 5* FREE NBA ATS Play

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:56 AM

Steve Janus

Feb 21 '20, 8:38 PM in 11h
NHL | Predators vs Blackhawks
Play on: Blackhawks +110 at sportsbook

1* Free Sharp Play on Blackhawks +110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:56 AM

Bobby Conn

Feb 21 '20, 9:00 PM in 12h
NCAA-B | VCU vs St. Louis
Play on: VCU -1½ -109 at GTBets

1* Free Play on VCU -1½ -109

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:56 AM

Ricky Tran

Feb 21 '20, 10:35 PM in 13h
NBA | Pelicans vs Blazers
Play on: Pelicans -170 at Mirage

Ricky's 1* play on the New Orleans Pelicans.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the injury to Damian Lillard is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
- The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on 3 or more days rest.
- The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
The verdict: look for the Pelicans to pick up where they left off before the break.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 07:56 AM

Marc Lawrence

Feb 21 '20, 10:35 PM in 13h
NBA | Pelicans vs Blazers
Play on: Blazers +4 -100 at pinnacle

Play - Portland Trail Blazers (Game 528).
Edges -Trail Blazers: 4-1 ATS when playing with five or more days of rest … Pelicans: 0-7 ATS when playing with five or more days of rest … We recommend a 1* play on Portland. Thank you and good luck as always. Thank you and good luck as always.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 08:25 AM

Al Cimaglia: February 21-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

February 21, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, the headliner from a betting standpoint at Cal Expo begins in Race 7, the 0.20 Pick 4 with a $30,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 16% takeout and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

2-Place At The Beach (10-1)-Magee's choice over #3 drops to a spot to shine and at 10-1 in the ML can add some juice to the Pick 4. Could surprise with a clean trip and can be put in play early on.
4-Princess Decline (6-1)-Loses Plano to #1 but will use instead as comes off a sharp win. Needs an honest pace and some live cover but that can happen, if so, should be rolling late.
6-Relentless Dancer (4-1)-Wasn't Plano's choice but Roland has steered in the past and drops to a better spot. Doesn't win often but this a beatable field.

Race 8

2-Blue Star Maverick (6-1)-Interesting play who could be overlooked and was overmatched last week. This is a spot for Cutting to leave, get sucked around and brush by late.
4-Bunkerhill Bill (5-1)-Makes 3rd start off an injured scratch and last was better. Will look for upswing to continue at a square price.
8-Bettor In The Bank (9/2)-10-year-old has won 41% of CalX starts and can come off cover from an outside post.
9-Coz And Effect (7/2)-Usually in the hunt but hasn't closed the deal. Has finished 2nd in 6 of last 7 starts, needs a trip but does drop. Kennedy may not get on the engine but should get a good early seat and be in the hunt.

Race 9

1-Asplode Hanover (5-1)-Enjoyed a fortunate trip in last to score at 12-1. Loses Roland but Magee knows well. Probably won't be 12-1 but should be a fair price and can follow a similar script.
2-Reys N A Ruckus (7/2)-Knox trainee has been in sharp form and best to respect especially with the added help of an inside post. Winner of 3 of 7 this year looks like a major player.
8-Explainnotcomplain (4-1)-Plano got the top and never looked back in the same class last week. There are a couple who could leave but thinking an up-close trip is likely and an encore could be in the cards.

Race 10

1-Gordy Again (3-1)-Longo owns, trains and drives and this is a soft spot for 7-time winner in '19. Using and this is the time for a dialed-up effort.
8-Sweet One (8-1)-Veteran mare has done well here in the past and half of the field doesn't have a win at CalX. Plano knows well and should put her in play early and stay involved to the wire.

0.20 Pick 4

2,4,6/2,4,8,9/1,2,8/1,8
Total Bet =$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 08:26 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for 2/21/20

February 21, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View Video

Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Single: 6-First Empress

Forecast: First Empress exits an infinitely tougher maiden $75,000 claimer in her debut last month and though well-beaten earned a speed figure that is good enough to beat this field. Granted, that race was on grass and this one’s on the main track, but if the daughter of Cairo Prince can run at all, she’ll handle this modest assignment. Strictly by default, we’ll make the P. Eurton-trained filly a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 12:58 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Smiling Annie

Forecast: Smiling Annie had a rough trip in a stronger first-level allowance race over this course and distance last month but switches to F. Prat, drops into a starter’s allowance affair and has past speed figures good enough to win at this level. A good, healthy work pattern since her last outing should have her primed for a bounce-back performance. We’ll make the daughter of Smiling Tiger is a straight play and logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 1:28 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Purdue; 6-Promnesia

Forecast: Here’s a bottom-rung, restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Best advice is to include as many as you can afford to; we’ll try to survive using just two. Purdue, away since last May but with speed to grab control and keep on going, rates top billing if she returns with her best stuff. The work tab, while hardly flashy, points to her fitness for a barn that has enjoyed a strong meeting so far with limited starters. Promnesia, in the frame in her last four, adds blinkers after finishing a reasonable third under these conditions last month and may have enough improvement in her to break through with a win.
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RACE 4: Post 1:58 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Love a Honeybadger

Forecast: This abbreviated main track sprint for older $16,000 claiming fillies and mares looks made to order for Love a Honeybadger. The veteran mare was off poorly and eliminated when far back in a much stronger starter allowance dash last time out but this more realistic spot should help get her back on track. Drawn comfortably outside and a winner of five of 10 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the B. Koriner-trained daughter of Bushwacker need only repeat her highly-rated win two runs back to handle this task. She’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

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RACE 5: Post 2:28 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Muralist; 3-Paint Me Lucky

Forecast: Paint Me Lucky is now five years old and hasn’t come close to fulfilling his expectations but the son of Paynter, away since November, continues to sizzle in the morning for B. Baffert and picks up F. Prat. A couple of sharp gate works – most recently in company with 2019 Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster – should have him on edge for a top effort and his race two back – a runner-up effort over this track and distance – charts very well in this spot. Muralist has improving form and rising speed figures, but this will be his first start on dirt, and there’s no guarantee he’ll duplicate his grass form over this much deeper surface. The switch to J. Rosario is a positive factor, making the Street Sense gelding the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post 2:58 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Order and Law; 3-Sea of Liberty

Forecast: Sea Liberty is wheeled back quickly by J. Sadler after beating state-bred maidens over this course and distance just 12 days ago. The Boisterous gelding earned a career top speed figure in that clever win that charts very favorably in this starter’s $50,000 nw-2 allowance event. Bug boy J. Velez stays aboard and should have him on or nearly the lead in a race that projects to have soft early splits. Order and Law has yet to hit the board in five starts over the local lawn and hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since capturing the Laurel Futurity as a maiden in September of 2018. But his recent numbers make him a major player in this league, and with the switch to J. Rosario the son of Violence is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Mucho Macho Woman

Forecast: Mucho Macho Woman became eligible for this starter’s allowance condition when she dropped into a maiden $40,000 sprint over this track and distance last month and won for fun with a huge speed figure, one that makes her a very short price to score right back. Drawn perfectly outside, the R. Ellis-trained filly should control the race either on the lead or from a stalking position. She’s an obviously (but no-value) rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dude’s Dream; 7-Champers; 9-Brother Reid

Forecast: The finale is an intriguing but difficult expensive maiden claiming turf miler for 3-yeaer-olds. On pure form Champers is the one to beat. The R. Hess, Jr.-trained colt has performed well over this course in the past, though he was a distant third as the favorite behind runaway winner Rip City under these conditions last time out. This looks like a considerably easier assignment and with the switch to M. Smith the son of Cairo Prince should have every chance to earn his diploma from a good stalking position. Dude’s Dream was no factor when chasing infinitely tougher straight maiden foes sprinting on grass in his debut last month but should go much with the benefit of that bit of experience under his belt in addition to the stretch-out in trip, the class drop, and an inside draw that guarantees a ground-saving trip. Today we’ll find out if he can run. Brother Reid had an outing in Florida, where he closed a gap sprinting in a decent straight maiden event and the V. Cerin-trained son of Empire Maker seems likely to improve with today’s added distance. Top grass rider U. Rispoli takes the call, another positive factor.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 08:27 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #2

#6 Cover Photo	Class riser moves up off the Youghans claim, and while it's tough to improve off the potent Cox, that win last time was awesome, and there will be some value here; can surprise right back.
#4 Radiantrhythm	The chalk was a good 3rd for 20k off the Rice claim for 25k and now drops slightly, so there are some mixed signals, but this barn plays this game better than anyone; looms plenty scary.
#2 Cold Hearted Pearl	Parx invader has been in good form and likes winning races, and while this is a tougher group than the starter 7.5k she's been facing, she fits on paper and will trip out too; do not ignore.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML would offer plenty of risk-reward on the pick, as there is a chance she regresses, but the win was so sharp you can give her a look here in all the slots, and in the early Pk5 and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since a win in the $14 range would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Aqueduct - Race #3

#7 Miss the Coin	Sharp MCL winner did it in fast time too, and while facing winners is never easy, this is a group there for the taking, and there will be enough value here to string along; call to double up.
#5 Legion Storm	Class dropper for Rice has run well in two starts off the claim while not threatening better, so it makes sense to see him back in for 25k, which also makes him a handful too; the one to beat.
#2 Soul Fight	Dicey ML favorite woke back up last time when 2nd at the level, but that run won't scare the top-2, and it's likely he'll need to run faster anyway to win this; comfortable making him prove it.
Race Summary	Swing away if you see the 6-1 ML on the pick, as he exits a fast win and one that would make him a player here, and it's not like the 5 or 2 have a decided edge on paper either, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win at about 9-2 or so would knock out a lot of budget tickets keying on the two potentially vulnerable favorites.

Aqueduct - Race #7

#4 Leaveuwithasmile	Stalker looked good beating lesser in her last two at Lrl and now steps up for an ice cod Jeremiah, but the race flow works here, as does the price, and, considering her good runs were out of town, maybe the guilt by association doesn't work here; upset special.
#5 Fierce Lady	The expected heavy favorite did well to draw outside some of the other speed, and her best wins this easily, but she bombed last time, won't get a positive race flow here, and has never faced open company either, so the waters are a lot deeper here; second-best.
#6 Autonomouos	Major player for Brown will get bet hard for her Eclipse award winning trainer, and she'll be glued to the favorite throughout, but she too exits a disappointing run, and has no edge on paper either, so at underlaid odds she needs to rebound; underneath, if at all.
Race Summary	There is a lot to like about the pick, most notably the race flow and her mutuel price, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's tripping out beautifully here, and comes in off a breakthrough win, which means she's going to be licking her chops off the far turn when the pace begins to takes its toll on the front runners.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 08:28 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #5

#7 Bay Hill	Draws well outside in a spot with zero pace, so his occasional spying gear should be put to good use tonight to keep him in close range.
#3 Cat Mor Bridge	Clearly the one to beat, but he's dropping off the layoff and might be overbet here. No clue what to make of him other than that he might wind up an underlay.
#5 More Data	Tactical type probably gets a pretty good, forward trip in this paceless spot, and that first 2020 try was a solid step in the right direction.
Race Summary	Bay Hill is interesting enough with a good draw to track whatever pace does show up in this spot, and he has been outrunning his odds in recent tries.

Charles Town - Race #6

#1 Q's Song	Hoping the pair of pace players will go for it early on while this guy gets a really cozy trip near the inside. Chance at a square price.
#4 College Kid	Pace looked good winning at first asking, but the other main speed in here draws outside of him, so the trip may be a bit tricky.
#3 Undeniable Touch	Faded late when trying stakes company last out, and though the maiden win didn't earn a big fig, she probably still has some upside today.
Race Summary	Manarola is the 9/5 ML chalk and may wind up with too much to do late in a spot where a first-jump trip might be the winning one.

Charles Town - Race #7

#9 Mayhem Like Me	Ran well locally before a couple of tries with better at Laurel. The return to the local footing probably wakes him up in a hurry.
#6 Island Cadger	He's not much, but he has at least been racing at this level and is catching a bunch of unknown class risers. He owns a couple of tries that might make him a fringe player at a big number.
#2 Affix	Reliable finisher looks more like an underneath player than anything else, but there might be a decent enough pace to give him a chance to hit the board.
Race Summary	Mayhem Like Me is probably overbet here, but the form looks best. I'll try to make this race pay by getting Island Cadger into the frame.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 08:28 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Miami Valley - Race #1

#3 WELL WISHERS	Third behind repeater, trying to upgrade recent in-the-money checks.
#1 DILLY DALLY	Earned $64k last year, plagued by bad posts this year, now draws rail.
#10 T C SCANDAL	Steps up off easy win for top connections, starts from second tier.
Race Summary	Well Wishers is a steady check-getter and could upstage a third-place effort from post 8 against a repeating favorite. The race timed a second faster than a split division. Play 3-1 and 3-10 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #1

#2 MAKE IT BIG	Thinking big price in amateur drivers’ race off decent try last week.
#9 PREPPY ART	Seeks third consecutive front-end score from outer posts, all off the claim.
#5 SCIROCCO MISTYSAID	Ran third at Big M in series in November, makes 4yo debut.
Race Summary	Make It Big beat half the field in a fast, 1:51.3 race, earning his top speed figure of the year. He should have plenty of pace to run at for his trainer-driver in ‘amateur’ race. Play a 2-5-9 exacta box.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2

#4 GOLDINTHEBADLANDS	Returned quick claim dividend, retains good value on class rise.
#1 CROCADILE CANYON	Perfect 2020 record ended with second-tier starting assignment.
#5 SPEED TO MARKET	Secured pocket from post 8, chased winning fave around the track.
Race Summary	Goldinthebadlands steps up in class off an impressive, off-the-claim victory. He led and dueled early, was shuffled from the pocket in the third quarter and re-surged 3-wide to win going away. Play 4-1 and 4-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 08:28 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#5 R Sea Smoke	Has been a consistent closer in turf races and was 2nd the only time she went two turns; can stay in range and is a good bet to run past them.
#6 Days of Spring	Was up in time for a maiden win last time and has been in fast races; still seeks 1st turf win but is in decent form.
#10 La Rusia	Has been solid on the front end of her last three, with a win and two 2nds in those; getting ever-so-close to a second win and could be difficult to run down.
Race Summary	R Sea Smoke is perfectly placed here with a good chance to run down a field that collectively has suspect endurance.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#8 Gioielli	Ran a credible 3rd in her 1st of the year and looks ready to try the mile; tired after setting the pace in her only two-turn attempt and, off her last one, looks ready for another shot at it.
#1 Lookinlikeaqueen	Won two straight until 3rd last out; has the tactical speed to be wherever she needs to be and an finish well here.
#4 Trilby	Working for a 3rd straight victory, the latest at this level; has a good closing more and can score with a favorable pace.
Race Summary	Gioielli can be close from the start and only a little improvement from her latest can do the trick.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#6 War Star	Was an even 4th last time, keeps Rendon, and can carve out a good trip here.
#7 Heir Ball	Beat the top choice by three-quarters of a length last time and despite the slim margin will be a much shorter price. Right there again.
#4 Vilaro	Was 2nd in two of his last four and has the speed to take on any other with designs on setting the pace; can stay for a piece of it.
Race Summary	War Star is a nice price in here and has been competitive at this level; a clean trip will get her a great chance for success.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-21-2020, 09:31 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Stronach 5

Stronach 5 - Race 2	Leg B of the Stronach 5 Race 7 from Gulfstream Park
Optional Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $44,000 • Post: 4:03P
(RAIL AT 108 FEET). FOR STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE JANUARY 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * HERE COMES JACKIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TRILBY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DANCE TILL DAWN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. LOVELY LUVY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CHARLOTTE THE BRIT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	HERE COMES JACKIE	9/2	6/1
4	TRILBY	5/1	7/1
2	DANCE TILL DAWN	10/1	7/1
5	LOVELY LUVY	6/1	7/1
9	CHARLOTTE THE BRIT	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	DANCE TILL DAWN	2	10/1	Front-runner	96	92	96.7	83.7	72.2
1	LOOKINLIKEAQUEEN	1	4/1	Front-runner	92	83	84.2	82.2	74.7
6	GHOSTLY BEAUTY	6	8/1	Stalker	83	87	103.3	77.7	59.7
3	HERE COMES JACKIE	3	9/2	Stalker	91	83	82.0	86.6	81.1
8	GIOIELLI	8	8/1	Stalker	90	79	80.6	80.6	63.1
10	TIZ POSSIBLE DEAR	10	8/1	Stalker	88	82	73.0	73.0	55.5
11	BIONDETTI'S CHOICE	11	12/1	Stalker	83	87	60.1	70.2	58.2
5	LOVELY LUVY	5	6/1	Trailer	91	84	68.4	86.8	76.8
4	TRILBY	4	5/1	Trailer	90	83	60.2	83.2	75.2
9	CHARLOTTE THE BRIT	9	10/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	84	76.3	81.8	71.8
12	NOTHINS FREE	12	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	77	84.7	75.0	54.0
7	VALLEY DATE	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	79	76.7	60.4	45.9