Service Plays Saturday 3/28/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2020, 04:55 AM

My Rainbow 6 Ticket for Florida Derby Day

March 27, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
It’s Mandatory Payout Day in the Rainbow 6 Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and it’s appropriate that it's on a standout card that ends with the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Here’s a look at the suggested ticket, which amounts to a $72 cost.

Race 9 (Sand Spring S.):
Using: Zofelle, Newspaperofrecord, Getmotherarose.
Analysis: Newspaperofrecord at one time looked unbeatable, and then she became beatable. Saying she has a class advantage is an understatement – the filly is a Breeders’ Cup winner. Despite not having run since July, she’s likely be very tough on the front end.

Zofelle won her first U.S. races after running in Great Britain. Her win streak came to an end in the Stall Memorial last month at Fair Grounds. She has a terrific late move and could benefit from a fast pace.

Getmotherarose won the Honey Fox over this course last time out, rallies well and has a legit chance to take it in the closing strides.

Race 10: (Orchid Stakes):
Using: Kelsey’s Cross, Gentle Ruler, Mean Mary, Elizabeth Way.

One of the toughest of the day, and after 1 3-8 miles on the turf, there will be some winded fillies and mares.

Kelsey’s Cross was unsuccessful in two at Gulfstream and then was a closing third in the Hillsborough at Tampa Bay. Florent Geroux has twice been aboard this filly and was third in each. She’ll be a late threat if he runs back to her last one.

Gentle Ruler is a must-use, having won six of her last seven. The only strike against her is that she hasn’t raced since October. She still might be good enough.

Mean Mary has won three of five – three of four on the turf – and only gets better with distance. Won both local tries.

Elizabeth Way drew the No. 12 post, which is not a good thing going this distance, but her two U.S. starts have resulted in wins. She led gate to wire in her latest but came from far back in her first.

Race 11: (Gulfstream Park Oaks):
Using: Lake Avenue, Spice Is Nice, Tonalist’s Shape.

Tonalist’s Shape has been terrific in winning all five career starts, including graded events in her last two. Has tactical speed and just keeps going once she hits the stretch.

Lake Avenue tired in her latest but won on the front end in two earlier at Aqueduct. Spice Is Nice broke her maiden by 12 and followed with a bang-up second to Tonalist’s Shape last out.

Race 12: (Pan American Stakes):
Using: Channel Cat, Zulu Alpha.
Channel Cat just didn’t fire in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, finishing 10th behind Zula Alpha, but at this distance, he should be much closer to the lead, and he’s usually effective under such scenarios.
Zula Alpha was outstanding in his Pegasus Turf win and follow with a tremendous rally and victory in the Mac Diarmida. He’s 7 years old and he probably has not been better. Probably didn’t write the book on the term “turn of foot,” but you’d have to look hard to see another as good as he is when he winds up.

Race 13: (Appleton Stakes)
Using: Ballagh Rocks, Maraud, Social Paranoia, Louder Than Bombs, Sombeyay.
This is a pick ‘em, and Sombeyay probably comes off the best effort when he won the Canadian Turf, but that doesn’t mean he’s any kind of cinch. He’ll have to overcome his outside post but is certainly usable.
Of the others, Louder Than Bombs might have the best chance to deliver when it comes to price. He was early 50-1 when he closed for third in the Canadian Turf, beaten by three-quarters of a length by Sombeyay. Ballagh Rocks, Maraud and Social Paranoia also have legit chances and none of those would be a major surprise.

Race 14: Florida Derby
Using: Tiz the Law
Tiz the Law is the single here, and his win in the Holy Bull Stakes could’ve been the best effort by a 3-year-old this year. He brought his record to three-for-four when he took the Holy Bull and moved himself to the top of his class.

Here’s the suggested play in Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow 6 mandatory payout on Saturday:
9) #2 Zofelle, #5 Newspaperofrecord, #7 Getmotherarose.
10) #2 Kelsey’s Cross, #5 Gentle Ruler, #6 Mean Mary, #12 Elizabeth Way.
11) #4 Lake Avenue, #5 Spice Is Nice, #9 Tonalist’s Shape.
12) #1 Channel Cat, #9 Zulu Alpha.
13) #4 Ballagh Rocks, #5 Maraud, #7 Social Paranoia, #9 Louder Than Bombs, #10 Sombeyay.
14) #7 Tiz the Law.
20-cent Rainbow 6 ticket: 2-5-7 with 2-5-6-12 with 4-5-9 with 1-9 with 4-5-7-9-10 with 7 ($72).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2020, 04:55 AM

March 26, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$200,000 GRADE 2 PAN AMERICAN AT GULFSTREAM PARK
Saturday, March 28, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Saturday's 14-race Florida Derby Day extravaganza at Gulfstream Park includes a whopping 10 stakes races. More than $45 million has been handled the past 2 years on this day, and with many Americans staying home (and with limited gambling options), there's no telling what level of betting could be in store. There's a guaranteed payout for the Rainbow Six on Races 9-14, a $400,000 late pick five guaranteed pool on Races 10-14 and a $500,000 late pick four guaranteed pool in Races 11-14. The Grade 2 Pan American goes as Race 12 and will be a part of all those tempting multi-race wagers.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner ZULU ALPHA has the distinct class advantage on his resume. Defending champion FOCUS GROUP has scored at this Grade 2 level. CHANNEL CAT has won at the Grade 2 level and is Grade 1-placed. The rest are paced by Grade 3 winners SPOOKY CHANNEL and CURRENT.

Pace:
Over 1-1/2 miles on turf, you expect a galloper's pace that's not taxing. MANICOMIO could make the front based on his dirt form going shorter. But much of this field simply wants to wait and make a late run. CHANNEL CAT, typically not a front-runner, did wire the Bowling Green in July when the rider was intent on the front. From the rail, Joel Rosario may sense that move and try to apply if the horse will cooperate.

Our Eyes:
ZULU ALPHA aims for a third major win on turf at the meet. He topped the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf in late January, and added the the Mac Diarmida a month later. He'll carry co-top weight of 124 pounds and spot this field 2-6 pounds (SPOOKY CHANNEL also totes 124). With victories in 4 of 5 starts at Gulfstream, a continuance of form for ZULU ALPHA should prove better than these. He'll have to encounter trouble or a form regression to be beaten. Trainer Mike Maker also has GO POKE THE BEAR, under the hot-riding Paco Lopez, and BEMMA'S BOY, who will be piloted by Florent Geroux, who has been on a stakes roll nationally in the past few months.

Defending Pan American champ FOCUS GROUP hasn't won in 5 starts since last year's score. He's finished off the board in 4 of those 5 bids and hasn't raced since the Sycamore at Keeneland in October. Trainer Christophe Clement had him ready last year off a similar layoff, and FOCUS GROUP managed to put himself into the race much closer in a paceless heat like he'll need to do Saturday.

CHANNEL CAT has lost 5 in a row and 8 of his last 9, but he's not without a shot. Consider he was 12-1 in the Pegasus World Cup when not firing after a rocky start. ZULU ALPHA, the winner, was 11-1 going into that spot. We haven't seen CHANNEL CAT since, but the Todd Pletcher trainee has been training very well at Palm Beach Downs, and the barn also will have CURRENT in the mix. CURRENT was an early developer who hasn't yet found his footing among the elder turf division.

SPOOKY CHANNEL upset the Grade 3 McKnight at 36-1 in January, but was well back of ZULU ALPHA in the Mac Diarmida since then. The former Arizona turf ace has been up-and-down in his Florida forays and difficult to fully trust. But Brian Lynch-Julien Leparoux on the turf can tempt at a big enough price.

The field is rounded out by recent claiming winner PRINCE OF ARABIA and Sunshine Million Turf third-place finisher GALLEON MAST, who has had some success in shorter, softer spots over this course.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: ZULU ALPHA is a solid favorite appears trustworthy.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: BEMMA'S BOY has trained well for this and showed immense talent at Keeneland last fall. He's not gotten uncorked over the winter, but is showing signs he could be Maker's latest veteran turf claimer to make the big stakes ascent.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $80 exacta ZULU ALPHA over BEMMA'S BOY. $20 exacta BEMMA'S BOY over ZULU ALPHA.

**Benten** · 03-27-2020, 09:47 PM

Anyone on IC’s Saturday soccer plays? I believe he has a 6 unit and a 3 unit play. Thank you for sharing

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2020, 10:52 PM

Carmine Bianco

10-1-3 Soccer Streak

Saturday 6:00 AM ET

BELARUS - PREMIER LEAGUE
Game: DINAMO BREST AT SLUTSKAKHAR
Date/Time: Mar 28 2020 6:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%

Play: DINAMO BREST -1 -123

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-27-2020, 10:56 PM

Wunderdog Soccer

FC Slutsk (152) vs. FC Dynamo Brest (151)
Saturday 03/28 6:00 AM Eastern
FC Dynamo Brest -179 (moneyline) at 5dimes - risk 1.5 units to return 2.34 units

FC Slavia Mozyr (155) vs. Bate Borisov (154)
Saturday 03/28 8:00 AM Eastern
Borisov -240 (moneyline) at 5dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.42 units

FC Minsk (158) vs. Dinamo Minsk (157)
Saturday 03/28 10:00 AM Eastern
Dinamo Minsk +122 (moneyline) at GTBets - risk 1.5 units to return 3.33 units

FC Gorodeya (161) vs. Shakhtyor Soligorsk (160)
Saturday 03/28 12:00 PM Eastern
Shakhtyor Soligorsk -146 (moneyline) at 5dimes - risk 1 unit to return 1.68 units

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 06:54 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 3/28/20

March 28, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, March 28, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 11:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Zabava; 10-Scatnap; 11-Traipsing
Forecast: The 14-race Florida Derby-G1 day program begins with a wide-open first-level allowance middle distance turf event for fillies and mares. We’ll try to survive and advance tripling the race but if you can afford to include a few more, go right ahead. Scatnap is tough, dependable mare with 10 wins on her resume, most recently scoring in a $30,000 claimer over this course and distance last time out in mid-January while earning one of her better speed figures. She’s protected today by a hot barn, switches to P. Lopez, and projects to enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip. At 5-1 on the morning line, she seems as good as any. Zabava, in the frame in her last three starts but winless in six outings over the local turf course, has an effective stalking style that should ensure a good trip in a big field. The M. Maker-trained filly earned a career top speed figure last time out, one that if repeated would be good enough to beat this field. Stranger danger comes in the form of Traipsing, away since breaking her maiden at Presque Isle Downs by herself back in September of 2018. The work tab doesn’t jump off the page, but at 20-1 on the morning line for the always-dangerous Clement-Rosario team she’s worth tossing in as a tote-buster. It’s a long day and there are better wagering opportunities later on, so we suggest you tread lightly here.

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RACE 2: Post 12:00 ET. Grade:
Use: 5-Beau Luminarie; 6-Traveling Midas; 11-Top Seed
Forecast: Beau Luminarie continued his improving pattern in his third career start last month when earning a giant speed figure over this track and distance in handling maidens by seven widen lengths while on the pace throughout. A similar effort today makes him the one to beat right back. Top Seed finally made it to the post in February of his 4-year-old season and won at first asking in rather nice fashion for Shug, earning a good figure with a pace-pressing trip while giving every indication that he’ll handle more distance if asked. This one-turn first-level allowance main track miler appears made to order for the son of Orb, so with a forward move from a comfortable outside draw he may be the one Beau Luminarie has to worry about the most. These are the two we’ll be including in rolling exotic play in what appears to be a rather strong race for the level.

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RACE 3: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Largent; 5-Temple; 7-Proliferate; 12-Tribhuvan
Forecast: Here’s a very difficult second-level allowance middle distance turf event that has several possibilities. The four we’ve listed above have every right to run well enough to win, but there are others that are more than capable of landing the odds as well. Trip should decide it. Largent just failed at even money in a similar spot, going down by a head after pressing a strong pace outside throughout. He’s fast on numbers, has the tactical speed to be placed wherever L. Saez wants to be, and with just four career starts the T. Pletcher-trained gelding has plenty of room for further improvement. Proliferate, a closing third beaten just over a length in the same race Largent exits, was a little farther back than he normally prefersly in that race and could find himself within striking range throughout with the switch to F. Geroux. The M. Casse-trained son of Declaration of War has been stuck on thirds lately but won’t have to improve much to get back in winning form. Temple exits a series of stakes races and should appreciate this drop in class. A three-time winner over the Gulfstream Park grass course, the M. Maker-trained gelding was given too much to do when a closing third last time out and is more effective when he can utilize his tactical speed to be within striking range throughout. On pure speed figures he’s right there with these. Tribhuvan took a long time to break his maiden and then after doing so in his 12th career start came right back to capture a valuable 16-runner handicap in Chantilly last fall. C. Brown has remarkable stats with European invaders and this colt adds Lasix for his U.S. debut following a series of local drills that should have him primed and ready. We give him a legitimate look despite his poor outside draw.

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RACE 4: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Vitalogy; 10-Decorated Invader
Forecast: This listed turf stakes for 3-year-olds has two exceptional colts that on paper should leave the others behind. They’re tough to separate so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics. Vitalogy was visually very impressive winning his sophomore debut in the Palm Beach S.-G3 here last month. He overcame an outside draw to secure a good pace-prompting position and then kicked clear when the pressure was turned on from the head of the lane to the wire. Graded stakes placed twice as a 2-year-old and apparently better now than he was then, the B. Walsh-trained colt must pick up 6 lbs. today but we doubt the added impost will make much difference. The son of No Nay Never has the makings of an outstanding middle distance turf performer, but he’ll have to beat Decorated Invader, away since finishing a much troubled fourth beaten just over a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, a race he could have won with any kind of racing luck. The C. Clement-trained son of Declaration of War may not be totally cranked up but even at 90 percent he’s dangerous for the powerful jockey/trainer team of Rosario and Clement. Given his recent win over the course, Vitalogy deserves the edge on top but both must be included in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 5: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Network Effect; 11-Almashriq
Forecast: Draw a line through this three substandard grass races and Almashriq looks like a very nice colt. Originally a $1.2 million Keeneland yearling purchase, the Shadwell Stable 4-year-old was impressive winning a first-level allowance race in his recent U. S. debut over this track and distance, finding more when it was needed in the final furlong after racing on the lead inside under pressure every step of the way. Today, the K. McLaughlin-trained colt is cozily drawn outside in a field without much pace, so L. Saez has the option of taking control early or stalking and pouncing when the time is right. The son of War Front will need to produce a forward move to win on the raise, but seems more than capable of doing just that, and at 8-1 on the morning line he offers plenty of value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Also worth including is Network Effect, freshened since finishing far back behind Maximum Security in the Cigar Mile-G1 in December but with prior speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. The C. Brown-trained colt won his debut so we know he can fresh and has a lovely pace-stalking style for this one-turn mile trip.

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RACE 6: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Harvey Wallbanger; 2-Bodexpress; 6-American Tattoo
Forecast: This is one of the more difficult races on the program with many question marks that require a significant spread in rolling exotic play. Each of the three listed above are capable of winning if the race shape goes their way. Consistency has never been Harvey Wallbanger’s middle name but when the 4-year-old colt has his mind on running he can be extremely effective in middle distance graded events, especially over the Gulfstream Park main track. A winner of the Holy Bull S.-G2 here last year and showing a return to that form with a dominating score in a strong second-level allowance race here last month, the stretch running son of Congrats came against slow fractions in his last victory and today should have more than an ample amount of pace to set things up for his late kick. Whether he can turn in two alike remains to be seen, but on the chance that he can we’ll put him on top. American Tattoo was out of his element in the McKnight S.-G23 over 12 furlongs on turf last time out but returns to his preferred surface and shortens to a mile and one-eighth, conditions that should bring out his best. A Grade-1 winner in South America, the T. Pletcher-trained horse projects to enjoy a perfect second-flight trip behind the fast leaders and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Bodexpress is a need-the-lead type and always is dangerous when he inherits the role as the controlling speed. With the presence of committed front-runner Rare Form also in the field, his preferred trip is problematic, but if he can shake free early, he could take this field a very long way.

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RACE 7: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Walk In Marrakesh; 9-Seducer
Forecast: Seducer is making a substantial leap in class – from a debut maiden win straight into the listed $100,000 Sanibel Island Stakes – but the way she performed in her only outing at the Big A last November provides strong indication that she could very well be the goods. A smooth, athletic filly with a superior turn of foot, the C. Clement-trained filly won her race in gate-to-wire style but gave the impression that she just as easily could have stalked and pounced. The recent work tab at Payson Park indicates fitness, and at 8-1 on the morning line the daughter of Cairo Prince offers extreme value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Walk in Marrakesh is a proven stakes-quality performer and is another that appears to be a bit of an overlay at 6-1 on the morning line. Nosed out in her U.S. debut in the Natalma S.-G1 at Woodbine last summer, she returned to suffer another heartbreaking defeat when missing by a head in her sophomore debut in the Florida Oaks-G3 at Tampa Bay Downs earlier this month. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with Seducer getting top billing.
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RACE 8: Post 3:00 ET. Grade:
Use: 8-Vekoma; 7-Jackson; 11-Frosted Grace
Forecast: Vekoma, away since crossing the wire 13th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, certainly has shown he can fire fresh, having won his debut as a 2-year-old, but even more significant is his record around one turn, a perfect two-for-two that includes a victory in the Nashua S.-G2. This seven furlong trip looks ideal for his pace-stalking style, and if the son of Candy Ride returns as well as his connections expect, he’ll outclass this listed stakes group of sprinters. The work tab at Palm Beach Downs looks good and includes a bullet five furlong drill in 1:00 flat on March 6. That said, a major point of concern is that the G. Weaver barn isn’t known to win regularly with layoff runners – currently the stable is on a zero-for-23 streak – but hopefully this colt is good enough to buck the trend. Jackson won the World of Trouble S.-G3 here at six furlongs last month with a career top speed figure and has the style to be even more effective with an extra furlong to work with today. He’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Long shot players should give consideration to Frosted Grace, listed at 20-1 on the morning line. The K. Ritvo-trained colt has the “blinkers off” angle that always catches the eye and should enjoy an ideal pace prompting trip outside. At 20-1 on the morning line and with the switch to P. Lopez, the son of Marek Valeski might be worth tossing in on a ticket or two.

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RACE 9: Post 3:34 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Zofelle; 6-La Signare; 10-Jakarta; 12-Valedictorian
Forecast: With the scratching of the 9/5 morning line favorite Newspaperofrecord, this race takes on a whole different messy look, leading us to spread four-deep without any great conviction. Zofelle, a sharp Fair Grounds invader, packs a powerful late kick and should see enough early pace in here to compliment her late-running style. With good racing luck, the B. Walsh-trained filly may be able to produce the last run. La Signare came against slow fractions to finish a willing third in the The Very One S.-G3 and today shortens to a mile, where she should get much more help up front. She’s always been most effective when held up and allowed to run late and seems certain to get that kind of trip today. Valedictorian, fourth in the Honey Fox S.-G3 in a race she probably needed, is drawn farther outside than we’d prefer but the veteran mare always has loved the local lawn and is eligible to move forward considerably with that tightener behind her. Finally, will toss in controlling speed, Jakarta, stretching out for the first time and returning off short race following a blazing five furlong gate-to-wire turf sprint. If they don’t respect her up front, who knows? This is a race you should spread as deeply as your budget allows.

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RACE 10: Post 4:17 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Gentle Ruler; 6-Mean Mary
Forecast: Gentle Ruler took a while to break her maiden but once she figured things out the late-developing daughter of Colonel John became a high class marathon grass specialist. Though she’s been freshened since winning the 12-furlong Dowager Stakes at Keeneland in October, the I. Wilkes-trained mare has trained eagerly and splendidly for her return while giving every indication that she’s ready to pick up where she left off. Her chief rival in this mile and three-eighths Grade-3 grass event for fillies and mares is Mean Mary, a lightly-raced and rapidly improving daughter of Scat Daddy who crushed her rivals in gate-to-wire fashion in the Le Prevoyante S.-G3 in late January. The G. Motion-trained filly has seen her speed figures rise with every outing, and in a race that projects to have soft early splits ‘Mary may take control early and never look back, just as she did her most recent score. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of these two, and both should be included in rolling exotic play. We’ll then press with extra tickets using Gentle Ruler in the win pool.

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RACE 11: Post 4:49 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Spice Is Nice; 9-Tonalist’s Shape
Forecast: Tonalist Shape just beat Spice Is Nice on the square in Davona Dale S.-G2 at a one-turn mile here last month and they meet again stretching out an extra half furlong in this year’s edition of the Gulfstream Park Oaks-G2. Both fillies will be trying two-turns for the first time and both have pedigrees to improve as the distances increase. ‘Shape is perfect in five starts, and while her speed figures has gone up and down like a yo-yo she may be the type that does only what’s required. ‘Nice is a daughter of Curlin and therefore bred to develop as she matures. She really caught the eye when bravely keeping to her task to be well clear of the others in the Davona Dale, and we suspect the T. Pletcher-trained 3-year-old will move forward considerable off that performance. You have to use both in your rolling exotics; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Spice Is Nice on top.

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RACE 12: Post 5:26 ET. Grade: X
Single: 9-Zulu Alpha
Forecast: It’s hard to get past Zula Alpha, listed at 3/5 on the morning line, in today’s Pan American S.-G2 over a mile and one-half on turf. In a division that saw a different winner almost every time one of these marathon turf graded races was staged in North America last year, this veteran gelding finally seems to have established a pecking order following back-to-back victories over the local turf course, first in the middle distance Pegasus World Cup Turf-G1 in January and then most recently in the 11 furlong Mac Diarmeda S.-G2 here last month, a performance that earned him a career-top speed figure. A winner of 11 of 32 career starts, four of which have been accomplished at Gulfstream Park, the veteran son of Street Cry seems likely to continuing what he’s been doing, but at odds far too short to embrace. We’ll make him a short price rolling exotic single but otherwise sit it out.

RACE 13: Post 6:00 ET. Grade:
Use: 1-English Bee; 3-March to the Arch
Forecast: This is a highly challenging renewal of the Appleton S.-G3 – a case can be made for several of these – but we’ll focus on just two and hope to get by in rolling exotic play. March to the Arch, a thoroughly genuine and consistent gelding, won the Sunshine Millions Turf here in January and then lost a toughie at Tampa Bay Downs when third, beaten a head, in the Tampa Bay S.-G3 the following month. Drawn comfortably inside, the M. Casse-trained son of Arch is right there with the rest of these on pure numbers and is listed at 8-1 on the morning line, so let’s put him on top and hope for good racing luck. English Bee, also listed at 8-1, was a fast-finishing second in the Canadian Turf S.-G2 over this course and distance last month and gets a significant eight pound shift in the weights in his favor with the colt that just beat him, Sombeyay. He’s a late-developing son of English Channel with speed figures that are progressing, and from his favorable inside draw the G. Motion-trained colt has a chance to take full advantage of a ground-saving trip. If you feel the need to go deeper than just these two, feel free, it’s that kind of grass grab bag.
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RACE 14: Post 6:36 ET. Grade: X
Single: 7-Tiz the Law
Forecast: There really is no reason to pick against Tiz the Law in the afternoon’s featured event, the Florida Derby-G1. By all rights, the son of Constitution should be undefeated – his trip when beaten over a sloppy track Kentucky Jockey Club S.-G2 is legendary – and he certainly performed up to standard when easily capturing the Holly Bull S.-G3 over this main track in early February. The B. Tagg-trained 3-year-old has been kept on edge in the interim with a steady, healthy series of workouts, so in a race that sets up nicely for a second flight stalker, ‘Law looks every bit like a 6/5 morning line favorite should. We’ll make him a no-value rolling exotic single and to cap off a marvelous day of racing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 06:55 AM

Al Cimaglia: March 28-Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 28, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card ready to go with a first post at 6:10 PST. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 7 and it has a $30,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 16% takeout and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

1-Sin Machqueen (6-1)-Comes off an easy win against much cheaper. By starting on the rail versus this field, a nice trip could be in the cards. Will take a swing for a solid price with a fresh horse making its 4th start this year.
3-Dependlebury A (3-1)-Drops to the level of last win back on 2-8 and was Plano's pick over #8. Looks like a player who should be put in play early.
4-Marced Magic (5/2)-Will toss last from the 9-hole, started very slowly and couldn't make-up enough ground. Should fit much better at this level.
5-Mystery Dragon (9/2)-Drops to a more comfortable spot and was overmatched in last two starts. Barn has been doing well and was Roland's choice over #7.

Race 8

2-Joker John (8-1)-Roland's pick over #6 who is the 2nd ML choice. Flew down the lane but came up short to finish 3rd versus most of this field. Should be put in play earlier and could win at a square price with a top effort.
3-My Muddy Buddy (12-1)-Closed well off a ground saving trip and now makes 3rd start for new barn. Might be sitting on a big try and could be in the hunt at long odds.
5-Lickcreek Speedway (5-1)-Team Kennedy entry gets some post relief and can grind her way into contention. Winner of 7 out of 32 tries at CalX and should be in the mix tonight.
7-California Rock (5/2)-Comes off a win and this is 2nd time Lasix. 4-year old Rockin Image gelding loves the track and is consistently consistent. This is a likely single on many tickets.

Race 9

5-Virgin Eyes (2-1)-11-time winner in '19 has only taken 1-picture this year. Drops out of Open company and Plano takes a spin. Magee chose #4, but Corbin barn has won at a 19% clip over last 30-days and this could be a spot to shine.
6-Capitol Hill (5/2)-Fell short by <1-length last week when dropped to this level. Should be a major player if Cutting works a trip and puts into striking range. The short field can only help chances.

Race 10

2-Outlawintriguedbyu (7/2)-Rolled a 56.2 back half but fell a neck short. Magee's pick over #5, the program favorite, tries hard but doesn't win often. This looks like a beatable field and a spot to trip out.
5-Shock N Awe (2-1)-Takes a good drop and should be a major threat. Has won only 3 times in last 32 and is 2-14 at CalX. Doesn't have a lot to beat in here but won't trust as a single.

0.20 Pick 4

1,3,4,5/2,3,5,7/5,6/2,5
Total Bet=$12.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 06:57 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Oaklawn Park - Race #1

#4 Johnny Tiznow	Slight class dropper chased, made a middle move, then held on nicely to be 2nd in a very encouraging debut, meets a field seemingly stuck in neutral, and has a ton of upside; look out.
#1 Cold Smoke	ML favorite will be bet hard on the drop and cutback for Cox, and he clearly has a big chance here, but the rail is no bargain, not to mention he's burned a lot of money; trying to beat on top.
#2 Heros Reward	Fellow cutback runner probably needed his local bow, which was also his first for Catalano fro Baffert, so he should be tighter here, and a sprint figures more to his liking too; do not ignore.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML on the pick is very inviting, and it should hold, or be close to it, as there are several different ways to go here, but no one has as much upside, and that debut was very sharp, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since a win in the $11 range would add plenty of value right off the bat.

Oaklawn Park - Race #3

#6 Close Encounter	Lightly raced runner was in way to tough off the break last time, as he's not going to be able to play with AOC types, but he's with his friends now, has a ton of upside, and the right kind of closing style in a race with some outside speed; mows them down late.
#3 My Boy Lollipop	Logical sort was a distant 2nd while facing winners in his local bow, and with Cox calling the shots you know you're in good hands, no to mention this one has a stalking gear that should play in this field, while getting him first run on the pick too; the one to beat.
#1 Carpe Victoriam	FG turf runner has some solid 2yo dirt form to fall back on, adds blinkers for a bit more focus, and should be able to set up just off the speed, so if he can work out a trip from this tricky draw, he's going to have a big say in a spot like this; contention runs deep.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 6, and he should only improve off the comeback, plus the pace figures to be to his liking too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the early Pk4 as well, since he might get overlooked a bit and add plenty of value to the sequence, even though there's no reason to think he won't fit with a group like this.

Oaklawn Park - Race #9

#2 Heritage Park	Up and comer made it two straight last time-from an impossible draw too-and while he meets stakes foes here, he's progressed nicely to this, isn't outgunned on paper, and will be a square price on the board as well; upset special.
#3 K J's Nobility	The chalk has been humming along while posting big figures, and looked good winning last time, but his margin for error is a slim, he too faces stakes foes for the first time since last May, and seems an underlay at this 5-2 ML; second-best.
#6 Hoonani Road	Pace presser chased hard then didn't have a lot left when 3rd to a few heere last time, at 2-5 too, but he's off the rail today and has a much better attack post, plus the pace doesn't look nearly as hot up front; may make amends.
Race Summary	You're going to get enough risk-reward on the 2 to see if he can handle the class rise and up his game, and nothing he's done in his last two says he's not in with a shot here, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the Pk5 and late Pk4 as well, since there's more than just the favorites here, and if he pulls off the surprise in the 6-1 range, a lot of tickets will be hitting the floor.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 06:58 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Golden Gate - Race #2

#4 Wonder of Autism	Showed a bit of finishing ability from a bit further off it last time out, and he's likely to get a good trip from a bit closer this time around.
#2 Arky Vaughan	Big drop did the trick last time out, and he comes back in a reasonable enough spot to try winners. Repeat of his last keeps him in the mix.
#6 Vastly Deep	Dropper probably handles these at an underlaid price, but he has fallen short several times in recent races while taking a ton of cash, so I'll pass on principle in hopes he doesn't bring his 'A-game.'
Race Summary	Wonder of Autism has now shown some versatility that should serve him well, and he figures to offer a square price with a potentially vulnerable chalk drawn outside.

Golden Gate - Race #7

#5 Snow Pack	Might be worth the tiniest look as an upsetter in a race where the wagering figures to be pretty top-heavy. Think she may be running deceptively well of late.
#3 Just Classy	One of the two to beat in here, she'll step up off the claim while in really good form with a pair of wins in a row.
#2 Augure	Big drop with the blinkers off for this one, and while that makes her a major player in this spot, she has been burning cash in recent starts and will get bet again here.
Race Summary	Snow Pack is likely to offer a fair price with Just Classy and Augure in this bunch, and her recent races may be just a bit better than they look on paper, giving her a chance to compete despite being a bit short on figs.

Golden Gate - Race #8

#6 Wine and Whisky	Wanted to see just a bit better from him last time out, but still think he's within reach of what it would take to win here, and horses with somewhat similar credentials will likely take more cash.
#3 Awesome Summer	Looks like the one to beat with a couple of nice route efforts to her credit, and she'll get another really good forward trip today.
#4 Indian Peak	Finished in front of the top choice when they met in the El Camino Real Derby, and he has beaten similar in the past.
Race Summary	Wine and Whisky would be playable at something near the 6/1 ML price, and he's probably still capable of something just a bit better than he showed last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 06:58 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Cal-Expo - Race #1

#4 PEDIGREE BLUE CHIP	Question of readiness after scratch, should run past this field.
#5 NAKED BURNER	Third on class rise, appears rounding to another decent effort.
#8 IMMA TANK	Hit board in 22 of 49 since 2019, all in here are winless this year.
Race Summary	Pedigree Blue Chip was an injury scratch last week and 1-for-33 the last two years, but he towers over the field if ready for an 18-percent barn. Give him the benefit of the doubt and play a 4 with 5, 8 with ALL trifecta.

Cal-Expo - Race #9

#5 VIRGIN EYES	All-or-nothing on the class drop, regular driver vacates for #4.
#3 BRIAN’S MAGIC GIRL	Fanned out, second to longshot pace-setter, Roland’s choice.
#6 CAPITOL HILL	Shuffled on rail in middle half, swung 5-wide in mid-stretch, up for second.
Race Summary	Virgin Eyes exits open company, trailed in a fast heat last week and lands in a soft spot to resume her winning ways from last year. Play a 5-4 daily double.

Cal-Expo - Race #10

#4 MARILYN	Trapped long way in last pair, should be the target, today’s Best Bet.
#2 OUTLAWINTRIGUEDBYU	Hit board in 3 of last 6, figures close up, but 1-36 since 2019.
#5 SHOCK N AWE	Takes magnified class drop, gets Plano, offers little value.
Race Summary	Marilyn was trapped a long way in her last two starts but appears to hold a decided tactical edge if sent for the lead in a pace-less race. She was shut off with run in the stretch as the beaten favorite two back, then had what the chart-caller called a ‘good tightener’ despite being well-beaten off a month layoff. Play 4-2 and 4-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 06:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#5 Zabava	Has been 2nd in two of her last three and needs to get over the hump; Geroux will have her in good position throughout.
#7 Codrington	Rallied well and just missed last time out in a race that came off the turf; won the last time she was on grass and will be rolling late here.
#10 Scatnap	Steps up from claiming company but has been in solid form since last fall and has a red-hot jockey in Lopez.
Race Summary	Zabava has the tactical speed to be in a good spot from the start and can dig in to hold off her late-running rivals.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#9 South Bend	Adapted to the turf in his last two and came close, finishing 3rd in the Dania Beach and G3 Palm Beach; the one to hold off.
#10 Decorated Invader	Won the G1 Summer at Woodbine and was a fast-closing 4th in the G1 BC Juvenile Turf; off since November but clearly has the class.
#8 Moon Over Miami	Makes the switch turf and his bloodlines indicate he should have no problem with the change; has taken on better.
Race Summary	South Bend has run well over this course and can get first run against the come-from-behind types; due to score.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#2 Olympic Village	Turns back from two turns last time, when he was 2nd in good company; can make a run in this one-turn mile event.
#3 Network Effect	Makes his 1st since he was unplaced in the G1 Cigar Mile and won an allowance at Aqueduct two back; can be a player coming off the bench.
#10 Bourbon War	Failed on the turf last out and is back to a mile on the dirt, when he was 3rd two back; tried the Preakness and Belmont last year and was 2nd in the G2 Fountain of Youth over the strip last year.
Race Summary	Olympic Village moves back to a favorable situation in surface and distance and can be a strong player if he runs back to his last main-track effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 09:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 1	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double /$0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) $0.50 Early Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)
Claiming $3,200 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 12:45
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2019-2020. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $2,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. INTIMIDATE is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * INTIMIDATE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TUSCAN WARRIOR: Horse has th e highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LIL' CHIEFTAIN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at th e distance/surface.
4	INTIMIDATE	9/2	9/2
1	TUSCAN WARRIOR	8/5	5/1
2	LIL' CHIEFTAIN	7/5	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	UNION WINE	5	6/1	Front-runner	86	73	67.6	71.4	62.9
2	LIL' CHIEFTAIN	2	7/5	Alternator/Front-runner	87	82	65.4	76.2	69.2
4	INTIMIDATE	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	85	73	63.2	78.0	75.0
1	TUSCAN WARRIOR	1	8/5	Trailer	84	85	61.6	80.2	76.7
6	PEPPER SINGS	6	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	76	72.0	61.8	53.3
3	FAST SALE	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	71	39.4	62.2	51.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 09:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) (.50 Cent Minimum)
Claiming $15,000 • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $13,600 • Post: 8:15P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MAJOR REGARD: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. WILDER WAYS: Horse has the highest avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THIS SILKS DASHING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FLY VALIANTLY: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of t he gate fast.
6	KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY	5/1	6/1
1	MAJOR REGARD	6/1	6/1
9	WILDER WAYS	5/2	7/1
3	THIS SILKS DASHING	4/1	7/1
8	FLY VALIANTLY	10/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	MAJOR REGARD	1	6/1	Average	80	89	4.7	0.0	0.0
2	VALIANT AMIGO	2	12/1	Average	78	68	4.4	0.0	0.0
3	THIS SILKS DASHING	3	4/1	Average	86	83	4.2	0.0	0.0
4	ASK ME HOW I KNOW	4	10/1	Average	74	77	3.7	0.0	0.0
5	TRAVELIN FRIENDS	5	6/1	Fast	72	73	2.4	0.0	0.0
6	KEYSTONESCOUNTRYBOY	6	5/1	Average	87	80	3.8	0.0	0.0
7	TWO DASH CORONA	7	15/1	Slow	0	0	7.4	0.0	0.0
8	FLY VALIANTLY	8	10/1	Fast	74	80	1.6	0.0	0.0
9	WILDER WAYS	9	5/2	Average	82	85	5.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-28-2020, 09:20 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

03/28/20, TAM, Race 2, 12.50 ET
03/28/20,TAM,2,7F [Dirt] 1:20:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $10,000. FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000, For Each $1,000 To $8,000 1 lb.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	11	Must Be a Monster	7/2	Allen. Jr. R D	Bowersock Maria	SFE	52.94	1.46/$1
097.79	9	Just Shoot Already	3-1	Wales G	Wright Michael W.		34.67	1.42/$1
096.39	4	Privilegio	5-1	Camacho S	Munoz Carlos	J	34.67	1.42/$1
095.67	3	Royal Family	9/2	Mena R	Seale Christopher		34.67	1.42/$1
095.41	1	Funnel Cloud	6-1	Mejia T B	Dini Michael		34.67	1.42/$1
094.27	8	Rocky Diplomat	30-1	Santos A	Woodard Walter H.	W	34.67	1.42/$1
092.98	13	Imperial Greatness	4-1	Lopez J E	Lusk Brian R.		52.94	1.46/$1
092.90	14	Imperial Ivor(b+)	8-1	Delgado D	Menendez Pedro	C	52.94	1.46/$1
092.77	12	Sacco and Vanzetti	8-1	Spieth S	Minieri Joseph		52.94	1.46/$1
092.70	2	Boy Scout	15-1	Marin A A	Palacios Molina Jacob	L	34.67	1.42/$1
092.39	10	Mister Mister	20-1	Allen M	Wasiluk. Jr. Peter		52.94	1.46/$1
091.48	6	Shackleford Dancer	30-1	Suarez A	Hamm Timothy E.	T	34.67	1.42/$1
091.35	5	Tommy Tuesday	30-1	Suarez G	Tsirigotis. Jr. James		34.67	1.42/$1
086.47	7	Galleon Light	30-1	Leon J A	Williams Abdul		34.67	1.42/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.59, ROI 0.67/$1