Service Plays Saturday 3/28/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $7895 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 ROSH BGOSH 3/1
# 4 IMA FIVE BAR CARTEL 3/1
# 1 FIRES AWAY 9/5

ROSH BGOSH looks to be a quite good contender. Has competitive early pace and ought to fare well against this group of horses in this race. The speed fig of 80 from her most recent race looks very good in here. Magallanes has one of the most favorable winning percentages in this group of horses with entries running at this distance and surface. IMA FIVE BAR CARTEL - Is a solid contender based on figures garnered recently under today's conditions. Has very strong speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in this race. FIRES AWAY - Has been running very well lately and will probably be close to the front end early on. With a very strong 75 speed rating last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park - Race #8 - Post: 3:00pm - Stakes - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 107 Sir Shackleton S.

Rating:

#9 YORKTON (ML=20/1)
#12 MAJESTIC DUNHILL (ML=10/1)
#6 HOME BASE (ML=6/1)


YORKTON - Last out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. What that tells me is he can close well, and should be right there at the finish line this time around. MAJESTIC DUNHILL - This gelding's last race was back on June 16th but I do believe he can run a good one coming off a vacation. Always beware of the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. Getting a break of 6 lbs from last race at Laurel. He should make the most of this advantage. HOME BASE - Last event at Gulfstream Park on February 17th was a big class drop for this animal. Facing similar foes in this race. He should do well in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LAST JUDGMENT (ML=4/1), #8 VEKOMA (ML=9/2), #7 JACKSON (ML=5/1),

LAST JUDGMENT - This gelding probably needs a better pace situation to make his furious rally. VEKOMA - Any horse coming out of a route event should show some speed to vie with the sprinters. Don't feel this questionable contender will make a winning move in today's event. That last fig was common when compared with today's class figure. JACKSON - Doesn't appear to be worth 5/1 in today's event. Pass on him this time.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #9 YORKTON on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	9 with [6,12]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9,12] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[6,9,12] with [6,9,12] with [6,9,10,11,12] with [6,9,10,11,12] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[6,9,12] with [6,9,12] with [6,9,10,12] with [3,6,9,10,11,12] with [3,6,9,10,11,12] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #6 - Post: 3:02pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#2 BOB'S SNIPER (ML=8/1)


BOB'S SNIPER - This gelding is in superb form right now. Finished third in the last race and comes back promptly. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five class rating pts like this one did last out. I believe he'll be competitive at this class.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KRIS' WILD KAT (ML=2/1), #1 ABUSIVE GARY (ML=5/2), #5 BABY GRONK (ML=5/2),

KRIS' WILD KAT - Doubtful for this one to make an impact with no success lately in a sprint contest. Doubtful that the speed figure he earned on May 31st will be enough in this race. ABUSIVE GARY - This steed gave a less than rousing performance last time finishing fourth. Don't see any chance of any betterment in today's event. BABY GRONK - A bit of a lackluster effort when this gelding finished fifth. Doubtful that the speed figure he earned on Feb 23rd will hold up in this race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 BOB'S SNIPER to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

03/28/20, OP, Race 3, 2.00 CT
03/28/20,OP,3,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 CLAIMING. Purse $28,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 28, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since November 28, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	3	My Boy Lollipop	3-1	Talamo J	Cox Brad H.	TFEC	45.77	1.44/$1
096.22	7	Scoring	5/2	Vazquez R A	Villafranco Federico	SW	39.89	1.16/$1
094.97	5	Benny Chang	7/2	Elliott S	Miller Peter	L	35.42	1.10/$1
094.81	4	Fast Verdict	12-1	Mojica O	Deville Carl J.	J	35.42	1.10/$1
094.77	1	Carpe Victoriam(b+)	6-1	Cohen D	Amoss Thomas M.		35.42	1.10/$1
094.41	2	Majestic John's	5-1	Bridgmohan J V	Amoss Thomas M.		35.42	1.10/$1
092.29	6	Close Encounter	8-1	Quinonez L S	Von Hemel Donnie K.		35.42	1.10/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.62, ROI 1.06/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LILY CHASER 5/1
# 5 RACHEL'S WISH 4/1
# 6 SANGUINE 7/2

I've got to go with LILY CHASER. Looks very strong to be close to the lead at the first call. Posted a formidable Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this contest. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. RACHEL'S WISH - She should definitely be given consideration given the strong speed figures. Looks respectable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. SANGUINE - Overall the Equibase speed figs of this horse look decent in this outing. Had one of the best Equibase Speed Figs of this group in her last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, March 28: Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Picks

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March 27, 2020
SHA TIN HORSE RACING SELECTIONS

Saturday, March 28, 2020
First Post: 1:00AM ET (Sunday, March 29, 2020)

Race 1: #8 Kwai Chung Elite, #2 Speedy Missile, #1 Hurricane Hunter, #11 Golden Cannon
Race 2: #6 Cheerful Star, #10 Happy Rocky, #4 Defining Moment, #3 Above
Race 3: #9 Fantasy, #5 Urban Dancer, #3 Handsome Bo Bo, #1 Team Spirit
Race 4: #13 Iron King, #8 Incanto Prepared, #1 Dream Warriors, #7 Regency Master
Race 5: #5 Jade Phoenix, #6 Team Power, #2 Grade One, #12 Victory Mastery
Race 6: #3 The Runner, #2 Sam’s Love, #1 Juneau Park, #13 Winwin Thirtythree
Race 7: #13 War Of Courage, #2 Heart Conquered, #6 Valiant Dream, #7 Grateful Heart
Race 8: #1 Superich, #12 Picken, #13 Beauty Icon, #6 Hardly Swears
Race 9: #13 Enzemble, #2 High Rev, #4 Band Of Brothers, #5 Lobo’s Legend
Race 10: #5 Duke Wai, #3 Perfect Match, #9 Hong Kong Bet, #12 Shining Ace

Race 1: Un Chau Handicap

#8 Kwai Chung Elite get the blinkers applied to sharpen him up which could be exactly what he is after to finally get on with the job. He’s been racing well enough across his 13-start career to indicate a win was nearing and with the in-form Grant van Niekerk up, Sunday could well be his day. #2 Speedy Missile might have issues since the tongue-tie has been applied. He’s put together a few admirable runs and with this applied to help his breathing, he too could be ready to finally piece it all together. #1 Hurricane Hunter is a two-time course and distance winner. He narrowly missed last time out and a return to his preferred distance here, should see him run well. #11 Golden Cannon has drawn to get the right run. He’s proven here and is capable of snatching some prize money.

Race 2: Tai Hang Tung Handicap

#6 Cheerful Star is racing well and appears suited stepping back out to 2000m for this contest. Karis Teetan hops aboard following his recent suspension and from the gate, ridden quietly, should give him every opportunity to finish over the top of them. #10 Happy Rocky turned his form around to grab third last start. He can figure here with no weight on his back and although he’s drawn the widest ally, it’s unlikely to be a hindrance if he settles at the rear again. #4 Defining Moment mixes his form but on his day he is up to this. He gets Zac Purton on for the first time this season which warrants respect and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get the job done. #3 Above is next best, though, he is quite a tough ride as somewhat of a grinder.

Race 3: Lai Kok Handicap

#9 Fantasy has done nothing but impress across his short five-start career with four top two finishes, including the one win on debut. If he’s held his condition he’s going to take a power of beating, especially with no weight on his back and the services of Joao Moreira engaged. #5 Urban Dancer steps out on debut. It’s always difficult to win on debut, especially in Hong Kong but with the early dash this guy has shown in his trials, he just might be able to string them along here and he’ll represent good value to do so. #3 Handsome Bo Bo turned his form around last start to finish third. He’s proven in Class 3 previously and although he hasn’t won since early 2018, he just might be ready to bounce back off what was easily his best performance this season. #1 Team Spirit is next best, though, his task is made difficult with top weight on his back.

Race 4: So Uk Handicap (1st Section)

#13 Iron King has been racing well this season and has shown that a maiden win isn’t too far away. He gets in light once again and if he can overcome the wide draw, then he is the one to catch, especially with the in-form Grant van Niekerk up. #8 Incanton Prepared comes into this with two narrow placings under his belt at his most recent two runs. Joao Moreira retains the ride and this steady improver isn’t too far away from getting the job done. #1 Dream Warriors has the awkward gate to contend with but has thrived in Class 4 this term as a two-time winner. He can figure here and in his favour is the return to the grass from the dirt. #7 Regency Master gets Zac Purton on for the first time. This horse has a lot to learn still but has shown glimpses of ability and the booking of Hong Kong’s champion jockey for this, warrants respect.

Race 5: Shek Kip Mei Handicap

#5 Jade Phoenix has placed in all three of his runs across his short career. He’s nearing a breakthrough win, especially following that latest defeat by a neck, and with Joao Moreira retaining riding duties here, he rates as the one to beat. #6 Team Power raced well on debut before appearing to struggle at his latest. He was overrun in the finish last start but still, if he can recapture his debut performance he’s a leading player and coming from the Ricky Yiu yard, he’s every chance to do that. #2 Grade One’s last run in Class 4 relinquished a win and now finally dropping back to this grade should give him every opportunity to get back in the winner’s arch. Zac Purton hops on for the first time and although he’s drawn a touch awkward, he does warrant plenty of respect. #12 Victory Mastery is lightly raced but appears capable. He’s next best.

Race 6: So Uk Handicap (2nd Section)

#3 The Runner is lightly raced but has been thereabouts on a number of occasions. He’s improved back to Class 4 and now with those two runs under his belt in this grade, he just might be ready to go on with it now. #2 Sam’s Love appears to have found his mark. He won well three starts ago and since then has held his condition well for two sound efforts, including his latest short-head defeat. This is suitable. #1 Juneau Park rattled home to win by a nose just a fortnight ago. He remains in Class 4 off that performance and he definitely does appear to have a number of ratings points still in hand. #13 Winwin Thirtythree is winless, though his last three runs have clearly been his best, placing in each. He’s unlucky not to already be a winner and with a good draw and no weight on his back, he’s expected to get his chance.

Race 7: Cheung Sha Wan Handicap

#13 War Of Courage has shown immense talent across his short four-start career having never finished outside the top three, which includes one win. He can figure here down in the weights against this bunch. #2 Heart Conquered has done well so far in Hong Kong across his four starts and if he manages to step up once again he can challenge these. His Australian form stacks up here and it’s only a matter of time before he delivers. #6 Valiant Dream has won twice from his last five starts, though, appeared to struggle at his latest. Still, he can bounce back and this race is well within his grasp. #7 Grateful Heart did well on debut and his latest trial was seriously impressive. He gets Zac Purton on here and he remains a leading player in a hot little race.

Race 8: Nam Shan Handicap

#1 Superich put his best foot forward in a recent barrier trial and he appears to have recaptured his blistering best. Zac Purton takes the reins which indicates exactly that and from the soft draw he’s going to get all of the favours. #12 Picken is unlucky not to have won a race already this term. He’s gone close on a number of occasions and if he manages to piece it all together here, he’s in with an excellent shout with Joao Moreira up. #13 Beauty Icon grabbed third last time out. He’s winless but with the right run from the inside draw he can turn that around. #6 Hardly Swears is somewhat of a Happy Valley specialist after notching a hat-trick of wins there at his first three runs this term. He struggled last start but with that under his belt, he can improve.

Race 9: Pak Tin Handicap

Although winless #13 Enzemble is ever so close to that breakthrough success having placed in each of his last four runs. He’s found this distance to be suitable and with no weight on his back, as well as the services of Joao Moreira, he once again gets an excellent chance to finally go on with it. #2 High Rev is on the seven-day back-up. He’s talented and although he’s done his best at Happy Valley, he’s still suited by this distance at Sha Tin after racing over 2000m last week. He can figure from the gate and he’ll be worth keeping safe. #4 Band Of Brothers found his feet last start to grab fourth after a two month break. He’s ready now with that performance under his belt. #5 Lobo’s Legend narrowly missed over 1400m last start. He’ll relish the step up to the mile here and he remains a leading player.

Race 10: Chak On Handicap

#5 Duke Wai won four in a row before his last two defeats. Still, his last two defeats were narrow and against serious opposition and if he’s continued to hold his condition out of both of those runs, he is the one to beat. He’ll be rattling home for Karis Teetan. #3 Perfect Match has won his last two. He’s had his runs spaced which is a slight concern but his recent trial caught the eye and he’s proven in Class 2 also. #9 Hong Kong Bet has the ability. He’s a two-time Valley winner who returned from a lengthy break this campaign to grab fifth first-up and third last start. He’s on the right trajectory. #12 Shining Ace is next best if he can recapture his form at Happy Valley.

[Johnson_33157]

Do anyone have ic 6unit play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim

The model has revealed strong money line picks.


Belarusian Premier League

Gorodeya v. FC Shakhtyor (12 p.m. ET)

Money line: FC Shakhtyor -167

Against the spread: At -0.5, back FC Shakhtyor.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: FC Shakhtyor 1, Gorodeya 0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Forbes

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Here’s a brief horse-by-horse analysis for the Florida Derby.

#1 As Seen on Tv – Value longer shot, who finished 3rd in Fountain of Youth but was between horses and battling throughout down the stretch. He’s training great, has solid pedigree and red hot Gulfstream jockey Paco Lopez aboard.

#2 Shivaree - A sprinter trying to extend. No interest nor in #4 Soros, #8 My First Grammy or #11 Sassy But Smart, who has been running on turf against easier.

#3 Disc Jockey - Improved in two races for new barn, and can’t discount.

#5 Gouverneur Morris – Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Florida Derby five times and this colt has a shot to hit the board and his form cycle is solid with a strong move forward expected, perhaps more than any horse in this field. Super Screener also notes Gouverneur Morris finished 2nd to the highly regarded Maxfield in just his 2nd career start while finishing ahead of Enforceable. The risk/reward value proposition on this colt will be very favorable..

#6 Ajaaweed – Son of the great Curlin, this deep closer has to make major strides having finished more than 11 lengths behind runner-up Independence Hall in the Sam F. Davis (G3)

#7 Tiz the Law – The worthy favorite and top of horse in two of the three Kentucky Derby Futures Wager pools. Three of four wins only losing on an off track finishing 3rd last November. Huge talent with bullet-like acceleration and balanced energy. His performance in winning the Holy Bull over Ete Indien was the most impressive so far on the Derby trail with highest speed figure to date (BRIS 108) of any 3-year-old this year. The surface at Gulfstream favors pressures like Tiz the Law, and only if he’s acting up and doesn’t continue his maturity and improvement does he miss the board. Clearly horse to beat.

#9 Independence Hall – A strong value presser whose form cycle, solid numbers plus added distance and improvement makes him one to watch despite not yet racing over the Gulfstream track. Track announcer Pete Aiello’s upset pick and one to include in exotics.

#10 Candy Tycoon – Surprisingly a bit of a mystery in here with Todd Pletcher conditioning the horse. A late developer who was no match for Ete Indien last out in the Fountain of Youth. Better with distance but not banking on hitting the board.

#12 Ete Indien – Strong and consistent speed in both Fountain of Youth win breaking to the lead from 11 post and runner-up to Tiz the Law in Holy Bull. Still don’t like him enough with bigger disadvantage this race breaking far outside on the short run to the first turn.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matthew Hyland

Today let’s dive into the Florida Derby.First, a no brainer pick with TIZ THE LAW (7) 6/5 morning line. A very impressive win in the G3 Holy Bull, and his first G1 win in the Champagne. It seems that the distance will be no problem for this horse.Second, the horse must be ETE INDIEN (12). This horse dominated in the Fountain of Youth, winning by 8, but this horse has only come in second to TIZ THE LAW when these two have raced together. Maybe the Fountain of Youth would have been different if these two horses would have met in this race.
With the top two finishers, there are other horses for the exotics to consider, the first horse is CANDY TYCOON (10) – With the jockey change Luis Saez, this horse has a good shot in finishing in the top 3 or 4. Don’t know if the horse can get up to win but may add some value to the Trifecta or Super.
INDEPENDENCE HALL (9) – this is the only other horse that I can see to cause any problems for the top two. The horse has been bouncing back and forward with impressive wins and not so great performance. This horse seems to have good speed late, which will help in this long race, but if the top two get to a point where they have gone too fast too early, this horse could pick up the pieces.
Plays:
Exacta Box:
$2 EBX 7, 12
Wager Total $4.00


Trifecta Play:
$0.50 TRI 7, 12
$0.50 TRI 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.50 TRI 5, 9, 10, 13
Wager Total $10.00

For Fun, THE SUPER:
$0.10 SU 7, 9, 12
$0.10 SU 7, 9, 10, 12
$0.10 SU 5, 7, 9, 10, 13
$0.10 SU 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 12, 13
Wager Total $14.90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LineSheetGroup

Our three horse Exacta Box includes


6/5 Tis The Law
9/2 Independence Hall
8/1 Gouverneur Morris

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

Florida Derby

Top five horses, in order of preference:

7 Tiz the Law (6-5): This talented colt didn't get the best of trips in the Holy Bull Stakes and still won going away. The eight-week layoff between the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby bothers me a little bit, but he's still the best horse in the race. He's the pick.

9 Independence Hall (9-2): Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but he lost a shoe immediately after the start and was too close to a hot pace. He'll have a new jockey, Joel Rosario, and I think Independence Hall will be much better on Saturday than he was in early February. He's my No. 2.

12 Ete Indien (4-1): Ete Indien won the Fountain of Youth by daylight going wire-to-wire. You've got to respect that performance, but I don't think he will get that kind of easy lead on Saturday. And even if he does, he'll have to navigate a longer stretch in the Florida Derby.

10 Candy Tycoon (20-1): Jockey Javier Castellano was supposed to ride, but he tested positive for the coronavirus (he is asymptomatic, according to his agent), so Candy Tycoon will need a different rider. He has been much better as a 3-year-old than he was at 2, and I expect his improvement to continue

6 Ajaaweed (20-1): This will be one of the last races -- if not the last race -- that will feature Kiaran McLaughlin as a trainer. Ajaaweed rallied from seventh and last to finish third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and he should get another fast pace to run at on Saturday.

Wagers
$2 exacta box 6,7,9 ($12)
$2 exacta box 7,9,10 ($12)
$2 exacta box 7,9,12 ($12)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kiev O'Neil - Florida Derby

Lets get right into this wonderful race. Tiz The Law is your favorite at even money and if you have seen any of his videos, then you will know why. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won 4 of the last 6 Florida Derby races and has to decent horses in number 5 Gouverneur Morris who’s Jockey is John Velazquez and number 10 Candy Tycoon. I think Candy Tycoon is better but his Jockey Javier Castellano has come down with the COVID 19 virus but doing ok. Candy Tycoon will have a new Jockey in Luis Saez. The horses that I think has a shot to win this thing is the obvious in 7 Tiz the Law who beat Ete Indien convincingly in the Holy Bull and the 9 horse Independence Hall who had the best Beyer of the group and threw a shoe his last race. This horse has some good tactical speed and has never had a Beyer under 82. Here are my plays including a pick 4.

Total Played $136
Trifecta $1 – $40 Did this before scratches on Podcast. I still like the set up without the 3 horse.

Gulfstream Park, Mar 28, Race #14
1st[7, 9] – 2nd[3, 7, 9, 10, 12] – 3rd[1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12]

Exacta – $4 – $16

Gulfstream Park, Mar 28, Race #14
1st[9] – 2nd[5, 7, 10, 12]

Exacta – $3 – $12

Gulfstream Park, Mar 28, Race #14
1st[5, 7, 10, 12] – 2nd[9]

Trifecta Box NOT MY LAW – $.50 – $12

Gulfstream Park, Mar 28, Race #14
1st[5, 9, 10, 12]

Straight Win Place Show bet on Independence Hall – $20

Gulfstream Park, Mar 28, Race #14
Number 9 WPS – $7, $6, $7 – Total $20

Pick 4 $.50 – $36

Gulfstream Park, Mar 28, Race #11
Race 11 1st [4, 7, 9] – Race 12 1st [1, 9] – Race 13 1st [3, 8, 9, 12] – Race 14 1st [7, 9, 12]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Weir

Overview
A full field of 12 will contest the Florida Derby with Tiz the Law as the clear favorite off his Holy Bull win. There looks to be a contested pace. Ete Indien again draws the outside and will likely try to gun to the lead and repeat his Fountain of Youth win, but I don't believe a similar run-and-gun move will work on Saturday. There are better horses in this race, and they won't allow Ete Indien to sprint clear and cut over into the first turn.

Win contenders
7 Tiz the Law (6-5): Exits the Holy Bull with a clear win over Ete Indien despite a really odd and troubled trip. Is clearly the top East Coast 3-year-old heading into this race. He also improved his Beyer speed figure in his first start as a 3-year-old (despite the trip), which is something you want to see. The Holy Bull figure has proven solid. There are no obvious concerns. He's the horse to beat.

5 Gouverneur Morris (8-1): Comes out of a solid allowance race at Tampa. Has been one of the more touted horses for Todd Pletcher and has been favored in all three starts. The Tampa race was not flashy but looks like a perfect prep coming into the Florida Derby. He ran down a good horse (who finished second in his next start, the Gotham). The expected pace should benefit him. Look for him to be running late.

9 Independence Hall (9-2): Was a disappointment last out in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa, finishing second, but that was not a bad race. He may have moved a little early into a hot pace and then was caught by Sole Volante (who returned to finish second in the Tampa Bay Derby). The question remains if Independence Hall really wants to go this distance or is better suited around a mile. I will give him another chance. He will pick up Joel Rosario, who was on for his debut win and will hopefully get him to settle a little more in a pressing role.

Exotic contenders
12 Ete Indien (4-1): As mentioned earlier, I do not expect Ete Indien to repeat his last race. The quality of horses has improved, and he will be used hard to get to the lead or he will get stuck wide and lose position. I'm fading.

Wagering strategy
This is a three-horse race. I will bet exactas between the top three and then look for a superfecta to try to nail it down.

Wagers
$5 exacta box 5,7,9 ($30)
$10 exacta 7 with 5,9 ($20)
$2 superfecta 7 with 5,9 with 5,9 with 1,3,6,10,12 ($20)
$1 superfecta 7 with 5,9 with 1,3,6,10,12 with 5,9 ($10)
$1 superfecta 5,9 with 5,7,9 with 5,7,9 with 3,10,12 ($12)
$4 superfecta 7 with 5 with 9 with 10,12 ($8)

Total wager: $100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Predicteform

Race - 13

Value Plays: P# 4, Ballagh Rocks - P# 10, Sombeyay - P# 2, Hembree - P# 11, Mr Dumas